| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.06 |
| Last 30 Days | 33 | 51 | 0.00 | -11.72 |
| Season to Date | 176 | 256 | 0.00 | -48.94 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
HOME TEAM IN CAPS
COLORADO +170 over Washington
9:10 PM EST. Max Scherzer needs no introductions. Scherzer continues to rack up strikeouts, as he's amassed a major league leading 208 of them through 24 starts. However, this park is unlike the rest so even the best are vulnerable to the conditions here. The over/under total when a guy like Scherzer is pitching is almost exactly the same as when a guy like Tanner Roark is pitching. Tonight’s total of o10 -135 proves so, which is why the Nationals are far too big a risk at this price in Denver. It’s also worth noting that Scherzer has been tagged for 24 jacks this season, which leads the NL. Lastly, Scherzers fly-ball rate of 53% is among the highest in the majors, which explains the numbers of bombs he surrenders. Scherzer is an elite pitcher but nobody is an elite pitcher at this unforgiving park and Scherzer’s profile may not play well here at all.
Jorge De La Rosa is an unfamiliar 35-year-old pitcher that gets very little attention pitching for this team at this park. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and suggest that De La Rosa isn’t vulnerable because he is. Dude has walked 16 batters over his last 33 frames while striking out just 14. De La Rosa could easily get whacked here. However, we’ve seen this movie before, whereas De La Rosa goes out and pitches a seven-inning gem in his home park. Even though De La Rosa’s numbers aren’t pretty (5.25 ERA), he has several outstanding starts just like he has every season. That includes a 6.1-inning, four-hitter in Baltimore, a six-inning, three-hit shutout in Colorado against the Yanks and at least four other solid outings. We’ll close with De La Rosa’s three year home/road split: Home 23-5, 3.58 ERA, Road 16-19, 4.21 ERA. Thanks for your time.
N.Y. YANKEES +108 over Toronto
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays continue to be overpriced almost daily. They are getting a huge amount of market support because they have an entire country backing them as opposed to a single city. That has influence on the number but there are so many things not to like about them here. First, there is R.A. Dickey and his knuckleball. Knuckleballers are a rare breed in that you rarely know what you are going to get from them. If the knuckler is dancing and/or around the zone, it can be very effective. However, if Dickey is missing the plate and the knuckler isn’t dancing, it’s batting practice out there. While many traditional skill gauges weren't built around this style of pitching, our skills analysis simply does support any type of success going forward. Knuckleballers rely on good fortune rather than actual skill growth. Dickey has 52 walks in 143 innings with 103 K’s which is a K/BB ratio that is below league average. His ERA/xERA split of 4.63/4.61 reveals the risks involved.
Toronto’s offense continues to get praised often but it’s not even league average this season. The Jays are batting .253 over their past 40 games and just .225 over their past 20 games, which is dead last in the AL and second last in the entire league. When R.A. Dickey pitches, he insists that he is caught by Josh Thole. Therefore Thole and his .158 batting average (in 101 AB’s) will be in the lineup tonight. That’s equivalent to having a NL pitcher batting. Naturally, Thole bats ninth. So, with Dickey and his personal catcher going, the Jays are favored on the road here because why?
Chad Green allowed 12 baserunners (eight hits, four walks) in 3.2 innings on his way to a disaster start on Aug. 3, taking the first turn in the rotation slot vacated by the traded Ivan Nova. It was ugly but we never put a lot of emphasis on one start and now Green gets another opportunity. The Tigers selected Green in the 11th round of the 2013 draft and saw him develop nicely as a starter. They dealt him to New York in December 2015. The sleeper prospect has been absolutely terrific since midseason 2015 and has been stingy thus far in 2016. He commands the plate with an easily locatable 90-94 mph fastball despite its late sink and run. Green knows how to pitch and attack hitters with all of his offerings. His slider, which features splitter-like action, and change-up need work, but play up due to his repeatable arm speed and slot. Green limits walks and HR and he has a nifty 52% career groundball rate in the minors and majors. Further, he’s able to register strikeouts by mixing effectively and staying ahead of hitters. Win or lose here, we’re going with the best of it in terms of value because Toronto with Dickey starting does not warrant being road chalk.
ARIZONA -1½ +180 over N.Y Mets
9:40 PM EST. Robbie Ray evenly priced against Bartolo Colon is nuts. Ray is one of a select number of starters who can claim excellent skills against both LH and RH bats. He has been untouchable against lefties but he also has been very good against righties with 10.9 K’s/9, 3.7 BB’s/9, 43% grounders. If he can keep his walks under control, Ray will emerge as an elite starter. Ray’s groundball rate is 51% over his last six starts. His swing and miss rate of 13% over that same span is elite too. Everything that Ray throws is elite and the last thing he needs to improve on is his control. The good news is that he has walked just seven batters over his last 31 innings. Overall, Ray has 156 K’s in 128 frames. He’s on the verge of being in the upper echelon of starting pitchers so do not sleep on him for a second.
Bartolo Colon keeps on chugging along with laser-beam control, stellar command and pitching ahead in the count (primo first-pitch strike rate). A subpar k-rate and weak swing and miss rate provide him little room for error, but his shiny 3.35 ERA says he doesn't make many. Colon shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!!!????
Seriously, it’s hard to wrap one’s head around this success. Colon throws an 87 MPH fastball across the plate 88% of the time. Guys that do that never make it out of the minors but this lucky mother***er has been doing it for years. Every single batter knows that a fastball is coming, they know it will be a strike and they know it’ll be in the 86 to 88 MPH range. Colon is the only pitcher we have ever seen get away with this over an extended period of time. Colon continues to utilize a pitch-to-contact approach and elite control to get the most out of what he has left in the tank. However, with sweat pouring down his enormous face after one-pitch and armed with an 86 mph fastball and a puny swing and miss rate, we’ll take our chances that his fat luck runs out here. Bartolo Colon pitches worse than James Shields but he’s priced like he’s John Lackey.
Good luck guys.....Obviously it is not my best year but I honestly trust my reads (and below the surface stats) on the starters has never been better. I'll post here the rest of the way expecting to show a nice profit. BEST OF LUCK!
