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Boston +118 over DETROIT

1:10 PM EST. The Red Sox just steamrolled the Orioles in Baltimore while outscoring them 13-4 in in that two-game set. That’s not interesting. They also had a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday and won that one too. This is Boston’s third city in the past four days but that’s not interesting either. Boston has reeled off six in a row while scoring 47 runs over that span. That’s amazing but it’s not interesting. What’s interesting is that Boston played last night in Baltimore and this is a 1:00 PM EST start. That means getting to the hotel in Detroit very late last night. What we know for sure is that the Red Sox brass contacted the Tigers brass and asked them to move the game up to 4:00 PM EST. The Tigers had the right to refuse and they utilized that right. Detroit said no so here we are. That refusal will only motivate the Red Sox more. They’re hot, they’re in great form and they’re taking back a tag.

Clay Buchholz is having a disaster season and the only reason he’s in the rotation is because Steven Wright went on the DL. Indeed Buchholz may get torched but we’re not counting on a gem from him. We’re counting on a motivated and superior team to come out swinging against Matt Boyd.

Boyd has started 11 games this season and has just two quality starts to his credit. He also appeared in relief for two games so in total he has appeared in just 13 games. Last season, Boyd went 1-6 with a 7.53 ERA in 57 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays. Boyd was part of the David Price deal last season but he was not the key cog in that deal. Daniel Norris was. Prior to that, Boyd excelled across two minor-league levels but MLB hitters are far more wise to this finesse lefty's tricks and feasting on his extreme fly-ball profile (2.7 HR/9). Boyd’s fly-ball rate in his last start was 55% (league average is around 35%). Boyd has bounced between Detroit and Triple-A Toledo. He has a 5.04 xERA and showed similar skills in his 57 MLB innings in 2015 therefore there is no reason to wade into this minefield.

Chicago +179 over CLEVELAND
7:10 PM EST. Maybe the Indians run over the White Sox here. That is a distinct possibility but we’re not in the business of predicting outcomes. We are merely looking for overpriced favorites/underpriced dogs (value), fading or playing them and letting the chips fall where they may. That brings us to Danny Salazar, who comes off the DL here for his first start since August 1. Spotting a price like this on Salazar coming off the DL is therefore too big a risk. Additionally, Salazar has been tagged for seven jacks over his last five starts. He’s also been tagged for 6, 4 and 6 runs respectively in three of his last four starts. Yeah, Salazar can be downright dominating but again, he’s coming off the DL and his mound opponent can be dominating too.

Carlos Rodon also spent some recent time on the DL but he returned on July 31 after a 15-day stint. He was whacked that day (6 IP 8H 5ER) but he’s been brilliant in two starts since. Rodon has 18 K’s over his past 18 innings. He has 108 K’s in 109 innings overall. In his last start, Rodon’s line-drive rate was 0%. He’s throwing 94 MPH heat with late life and his swing and miss rate over his last two starts is an elite 12½%. Rodon does bring some risk. This top 2014 draft pick held his own in his first MLB exposure. His K-rate and swinging strikes have always held firm. His groundball rate and HR avoidance are pluses. However, his control is a different story. Rodon’s first-pitch strike rate of 52% says he has work to do. His career dominant start/disaster start split says we have to take the good with the bad. The beautiful thing about wagering is that we can pick and choose when we do take him and as a pooch in this range, Rodon’s potential dominance is worth backing because when he’s on his game, he’s elite. He’s been on his game lately.

N.Y. Mets +142 over SAN FRAN
10:15 PM EST. Madison Bumgarner is an elite pitcher that needs no introductions whatsoever. Hell, you have to be elite to be favored by this much over Jacob deGrom but Bumgarner is not the problem here. The problem is the team he pitches for that blew a 4-0 lead yesterday and subsequently had the bases loaded in the ninth with none out but could not tie it. San Fran has now lost its lead in the NL West. They have dropped four in a row and five of six and they’ll be operating with a brutal and overtaxed bullpen. Of course the Mets can hang around in this one and maybe even be winning when the pens take over.

Jacob deGrom appeared to have established himself as an upper tier starter in 2015 but this season didn't get off to such a great start. There was some concern about his velocity during spring training, and a back issue slowed him for the first couple weeks of the regular season. His lack of dominance was the main focus early on but he’s back to dominating again and looking like the ace he was expected to be. deGrom has a BB/K split of 29/129 in 133 innings. He has 31 K’s in his last 31 frames with an ERA/xERA split of 2.01/2.77. Not many starters in the game can match his combination of high strikeouts, low walks, and strong groundball tilt. deGrom is absolutely a good bet to put up elite numbers the rest of the way and that includes this game where he can easily shut down the struggling Giants. The equation here is a simple one that says Jacob deGrom should never be offered a price like this because he’s capable of throwing a shutout every time he takes the mound. The same can be said about Bumgarner but the difference is that Bumgarner is favored in the -150 range in a 50/50 game. That’s value.
 

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Would rather get my teeth drilled than watch another game like the Red Sox giveaway. Then the Whi up 3-0 early proceed to give up single runs in the 5th through the 9th innings to hand that one over. Then the Mets score 7 runs with Degrom and still get popped. Gambling can be tortuous. Stay sane boys...
 

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Would rather get my teeth drilled than watch another game like the Red Sox giveaway. Then the Whi up 3-0 early proceed to give up single runs in the 5th through the 9th innings to hand that one over. Then the Mets score 7 runs with Degrom and still get popped. Gambling can be tortuous. Stay sane boys...

It's so true, which is why NOBODY can predict outcomes. Just play value and let the chips fall where they may.....Could have easily gone 3-0, 1-2, 2-1 or 0-3. They were all one play away from any of those results.
 

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It's so true, which is why NOBODY can predict outcomes. Just play value and let the chips fall where they may.....Could have easily gone 3-0, 1-2, 2-1 or 0-3. They were all one play away from any of those results.

wiser words were never posted on a gambling forum
 

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