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2 unit play.

Miami +115 over PITTSBURGH

7:05 PM EST. The Fish belted out 16 hits last night on Gerrit Cole and took the opener of this series, 6-5. They’ll take a step down in class here when facing Chad Kuhl and his misleading 3-0 record. Kuhl has a very ordinary BB/K split of 9/22 in 31 frames. His first-pitch strike rate of 52% is asking for trouble. Kuhl’s 3.73 ERA does not have the support of his underlying numbers, which include an average K-rate, a fly-ball lean profile and just a 7% swing and miss rate. Truth be told, Kuhl’s 80% strand rate is doing the heavy lifting. His xERA of 4.62 is a more accurate account of his very average skills. It’s also worth noting that before being called up on June 26, Kuhl was absolutely rocked in four consecutive minor league starts. In no way does he deserve to be the favorite here pitching for the inferior squad. He’s also the second best starter in this matchup.

Enter David Phelps, one of the most under the radar pitchers in the majors right now. Phelps spent most of the year in the Marlins bullpen but he is now transitioning to starting again, a role he is quite familiar with. Phelps has appeared in 53 games this year with the last three coming as a starter. He’ll now make his fourth consecutive start and there is a great chance he’ll be stretched out here. In his first start, Phelps went 4.1 innings in Colorado and allowed just four hits and zero runs. His next start at home against the Giants saw him get stretched out to five innings. He allowed just four hits and one run. In his last start in Cinci, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Over those past three starts covering 14.2 innings, Phelps struck out 18 batters with the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. Note that Phelps’ skills against right-handers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Scherzer: 55/7 K/BB split in 37 innings. That elite command has produced elite results. Overall, Phelps has 86 K’s in 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. He has the support of a xERA of 2.84. He’ll now face a heavy right-handed batting lineup here that will send just two lefties to the plate. Wrong side favored.
 

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Thanks sunshine.......I wish Penny nothing but good luck........I really hate to go against the forum...it's like betting wrong at the craps table. I'll just silently root for the Marlins.
 

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Enter David Phelps, one of the most under the radar pitchers in the majors right now. Phelps spent most of the year in the Marlins bullpen but he is now transitioning to starting again, a role he is quite familiar with. Phelps has appeared in 53 games this year with the last three coming as a starter. He’ll now make his fourth consecutive start and there is a great chance he’ll be stretched out here. In his first start, Phelps went 4.1 innings in Colorado and allowed just four hits and zero runs. His next start at home against the Giants saw him get stretched out to five innings. He allowed just four hits and one run. In his last start in Cinci, he went 5.1 innings and allowed just four hits and two runs. Over those past three starts covering 14.2 innings, Phelps struck out 18 batters with the support of an elite 15% swing and miss rate. Note that Phelps’ skills against right-handers have been better than any pitcher in MLB not named Scherzer: 55/7 K/BB split in 37 innings. That elite command has produced elite results. Overall, Phelps has 86 K’s in 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA. He has the support of a xERA of 2.84. He’ll now face a heavy right-handed batting lineup here that will send just two lefties to the plate. Wrong side favored.

Just another example of Sherwood’s spot on analysis and expertise. I’ve lost track of all the “under the radar” pitchers he’s enlightened me to over the years. Well done sir.
 

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