Fantasy Football News, Info, Articles 2016/17

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Love/Hate and the whole story

Matthew BerryESPN Senior Writer

On Aug. 4, 2016, ESPN public relations sent out the following news release.

ESPN's Matthew Berry Signs Multi-Year Extension Through 2021

Matthew Berry, the most recognizable and influential personality in fantasy sports, has reached a new contract extension with ESPN to continue as the company's Senior Fantasy Analyst through 2021.

Berry will continue to write for ESPN.com, host ESPN's "Fantasy Focus Football" podcast, serve as lead fantasy analyst for Fantasy Football Kickoff and Fantasy Football Now on ESPN2, as well as make regular appearances on Monday Night Countdown, Sunday NFL Countdown, NFL Live, and SportsCenter on ESPN, and more.
"No one works harder or loves his job more than Matthew Berry, and it shows in everything he does for ESPN and the fans we serve," said Chad Millman, ESPN Vice President and Editorial Director, Domestic Digital Content. "He actually lives the 'Fantasy Life' he describes in his writing, which makes his voice uniquely authentic and adds depth and breadth to his analysis. Matthew is the leading voice in fantasy sports and this passionate and engaged audience is crucial to every platform at ESPN. Without question we are happy to have Matthew at ESPN for years to come."

Since Berry joined ESPN full time nearly a decade ago, ESPN fantasy football has grown steadily every year and has been recognized as the No. 1 fantasy football game in the industry for the last several years. He also was the first fantasy football analyst to join ESPN's NFL Draft Day coverage last year.

Berry's written work forms the foundation of ESPN's industry-leading fantasy football coverage. His annual "Love/Hate" column, which will be released on Aug. 11, consistently ranks among the top trafficked stories on ESPN.com for the entire year, while the in-season editions are among the most-read columns on ESPN.com on a weekly basis. Berry also headlines ESPN's weekly fantasy football rankings, which are among ESPN's most popular pieces of content each week during the fantasy football season and are integrated in ESPN's industry-leading fantasy football game and the ESPN's Fantasy Football app.


The Fantasy Focus Football podcast, which Berry cohosts along with partner Field Yates, is ESPN's top-rated podcast on a yearly basis, and generated the top five individual months by any company podcast during the 2016 NFL season. It was named best Fantasy Sports Podcast for 2015 by the Fantasy Sports Trade Association and has won seven Podcast Awards until this past year, when it was declared a "legacy" podcast, making it ineligible from winning additional awards. Also, as part of Berry's new responsibilities, the podcast will become the first ESPN digital audio product to be filmed for digital video distribution on a daily basis.

His first book, "Fantasy Life," was published in 2013 and debuted at number five on the New York Times Best Seller list, spending two months on the list. He has won a Sports Emmy for his work on Fantasy Football Now on ESPN2 -- the network's highest rated non-live event programming in the fall -- and was named the 2013 Marketer of the Year by the Academy of Marketing Science for his role in fueling the growth of fantasy football.

Berry joined ESPN in January of 2005, working part time for ESPN Radio 710 in Los Angeles. In 2006, he joined ESPN2's The Fantasy Show alongside Ron Jaworski, and in February 2007 he joined the company full time when his web site, TalentedMr.Roto.com, was acquired by ESPN. Berry also founded and still owns RotoPass.com and is the founder of Fantasy Movie League, as well as the app Fantasy Life, based off of his book.

Berry started writing about fantasy sports professionally in 1999 and has been a contributor to many top media and sports outlets prior to joining ESPN, He is a graduate of Syracuse University.

ESPN Fantasy Sports serves fans with a wide range of Fantasy games, along with industry-leading expert analysis and content, compelling community tools, and full integration across multiple platforms, including the No. 1 NFL Fantasy Football Game.
So, when I read that, I was actually speechless. I mean ... it's kind of insane to read, you know? The entire public relations team did a bang-up job. Seriously, my mom couldn't have written it better. I actually edited it down a little bit for this. So I'm truly humbled and blessed, and even kind of embarrassed.

And here's the thing: It's actually 100 percent true. Every rating, award, download and page view is absolutely accurate. There's only one thing that anyone could quibble about with the release:
It's not the whole story. Not even close.

You see, ESPN PR could have easily sent out the following release, also 100 percent accurate:

ESPN's Matthew Berry doesn't get fired

Matthew Berry, one of the hundreds of different people who contribute to ESPN's fantasy coverage on all platforms, has reached a new contract extension with ESPN to keep doing his job. With incredible assistance from the Fantasy editorial team, the copy desk and ESPN Stats & Information, Berry will continue to write and rank for ESPN.com. With tremendous support from producers, directors, associate producers, production assistants, huge technical crews, the hair and makeup department, anchors and fellow analysts, he'll appear on various ESPN TV shows, usually for about 90 seconds.

"I'm surprised people find him to be a good writer/entertaining," said Reddit commenter pooroldben, upon learning of the new contract. "Honestly I find him incredibly irritating and a genuinely unpleasant human."
Twitter user @IronMetalRoses added, " ... but he sucks, tho. He's been overrated the past three years and is declining."

After doing some part-time work at hours no one really listened to on ESPN Radio 710 in Los Angeles, Berry joined ESPN in 2006 as the main fantasy analyst for ESPN2's "The Fantasy Show." The show was canceled after half a season. The next year, Berry was the main fantasy analyst for ESPNEWS' "Fantasy Insiders" show. That show was canceled after a year. Doing a fantasy football segment by himself on the first episode of Sunday NFL Countdown in 2008, Berry was removed for the second episode and only brought back later that year when paired with polished NFL analyst Merril Hoge. Among the very popular ESPN TV shows that Berry has absolutely nothing to do with are Mike & Mike in the Morning, First Take, His and Hers, SportsNation, Highly Questionable, Around the Horn, Pardon the Interruption and all editions of SportsCenter, except for the 11 a.m. ET edition on Thursday, on which he appeared for five weeks last year. The segment was canceled in early November 2015. He has not appeared on the show since. SportsCenter continues to improve its ratings in total views across platforms.

In 2011, he had a weekly segment on ESPN Radio's popular SVP & Russillo. That was canceled after eight weeks. In 2013, Berry appeared weekly on the popular The Herd with Colin Cowherd. That segment was canceled after six weeks. Those are the only two times in the past decade Berry has had a weekly segment on ESPN Radio. As of this writing, he has not appeared on ESPN Radio in almost a year. ESPN Radio is coming off another record-setting year for ratings across platforms and in total revenue.

Berry will continue to write his "Love/Hate" column for ESPN, a column that in 2011 suggested Michael Vick should be the No. 1 overall pick. Among the "loves" in last year's preseason edition were Andre Johnson, Ameer Abdullah, Joseph Randle, Ryan Tannehill and Nelson Agholor. Yeesh. A paid spokesperson for DraftKings.com, Berry drew the ire of, well, pretty much everyone last year for his first column of 2015, which badly misjudged how interested people were in DFS advice in the column. He had been appearing in national DraftKings commercials for more than a month and assumed everyone knew he was a paid spokesman for the company. Not everyone did, and Berry had to write an apology column the week after. And don't get us started on the whole pool noodle thing. In fact, Berry can be counted on to screw up at least one column a year.
A frequent target of criticism on social media, message boards and blogs, Berry co-hosted the Fantasy Focus podcast with Nate Ravitz for many years. Upon learning of the contract extension, Facebook.com user David Martignetti commented, "Matthew is not funny and no more Nate and PodVader to reign him in."

This is a common refrain: that Ravitz, not Berry, was the key to the show's success. The real dude guy 1, an iTunes commenter, said in a recent one-star review, "Don't listen and waste your time! Matt Berry is not funny at all and should stop giving out ff [advice] and be an ESPN parking lot attendant instead. Seriously go find other better ff podcasts."


Berry was fired as host of a college TV talk show because they felt he was too uncomfortable to watch, forced to quit writing for his college newspaper, fired from two different production assistant jobs, failed to get way too many screenwriting jobs to count, fired from his own script that he sold at Paramount, forced to go to arbitration with Paul Hogan, failed to get a job writing for free at two different fantasy sports websites until latching on at Rotoworld, who eventually fired him from his $100 a week job, started his own site and supplied fantasy content for free to CBSSports.com. They fired him after a year. Had multiple meetings and failed to convince executives at Fox, CBS, Yahoo!, ESPN, Fox again, Sporting News, ESPN again, Yahoo! again, and USA Today on his ideas about fantasy before finally lucking out and finding a way into ESPN in 2007.

Meanwhile, since 2007, ESPN Fantasy has grown tremendously thanks to the hard work and incredible passion of the entire company, from the technology and product teams that have built the apps and improved the games every year to the salespeople that have helped monetize it to the marketing and promotion folks, who make everyone aware of it, to the literally thousands of people who touch our content every day on every possible platform: discussing, promoting, linking to, tweeting and Facebooking about, designing, writing and editing about fantasy sports for almost a decade.

ESPN Fantasy serves fans with a wide range of games, along with industry-leading expert analysis and content, compelling community tools, and full integration across multiple platforms, including the No. 1 NFL Fantasy Football Game. And that would continue without missing a beat if Matthew Berry got hit by a bus tomorrow.
Yeah.

So after the first news release went out, I got such a wonderful response: emails, tweets and texts from friends, fans, colleagues and fellow fantasy analysts. It meant a tremendous amount to me. Really, you have no idea. I cannot thank you all enough.
The first news release is great, right? That's the one I sent to my parents and showed my wife. It's the one I posted on Facebook, it's the one I'll pull out and read when I'm old.

But, you see, the first news release doesn't happen without the second. NOT. AT. ALL.
I am 46 years old and have had some sort of job every year of my life since I was 14. From paperboy to cashier at a toy store to production assistant in radio, show business and sports, I've worked a bunch of different jobs at a bunch of different companies. And I'm beyond thrilled that at the end of this deal I'll have been at ESPN for more than 15 years. It's by far the longest I have ever worked in one place, and I couldn't be happier.

But it wasn't the smoothest ride, and no doubt there are many challenges still to come.
Which brings us, meandering slowly once again, into this year's preseason Love/Hate. I chose to write this because as we all embark on our little fantasy football journey this year, there will be ups, there will be downs and there will most certainly be unexpected challenges and opportunities. How you react to them will make all the difference. And as you face that adversity, I hope you'll remember the second release, because you don't get the trophy without it.

Before we actually get to some football content, a few ground rules. Sadly, I have to lay them out every year. We start with this:
I hate the terms "sleeper" and "bust." I believe there is no such thing. To put it another way, every single player can be either a sleeper or a bust. It just comes down to what it costs to acquire said player and whether that player exceeds or falls short of that cost.

Not to get all Shark Tanky -- it isn't actually word but what the hell do I care, I got a five-year deal, I'm above the laws of grammar and spelling -- but a super-basic business term is return on investment, or "ROI." Let's pretend you are on the hit ABC show pitching the sharks and your company makes two products:
1. A T-shirt that advertises ESPN's brand new free fantasy app that allows you to control all of your fantasy teams in one app, with increased video and content.

2. A T-shirt that advertises the new Star Wars film "Rogue One," coming this holiday season from Disney/LucasFilm.
Both products sell equally well.

Mark Cuban can't believe how blatant all the company promotion is, so he's out.
Lori Greiner asks about price point.

You tell her the App shirt sells for $20 and the Star Wars shirt sells for $25.
Mr. Wonderful hasn't been paying attention, but he snaps out of it to tell you he's so bored by this whole analogy he's out too.
Barbara Corcoran scolds Mr. Wonderful for being a jerk and says a bunch of really nice, kind and supportive things about your business before also saying, yeah, she's out.

Daymond John, the apparel expert of the sharks, says he might be interested, but only if you consolidated your business to one product. Since both shirts sell at the exact same rate, you might say you want to keep selling the $25 shirt, since you take in $5 more on that shirt.

But then Lori asks what it costs to make each shirt. Each shirt costs the same to make. However, there is no royalty on the ESPN shirt, as they are pushing the new-and-improved app almost as much as they are promoting the fact that you should play your league out on ESPN.com on the free, fully customized league manager product. ESPN is happy to let you print as many shirts as you want, as they want the advertising.

The Star Wars shirt, however, charges a 30 percent royalty rate on the image of Darth Vader because, did I mention that Darth Vader is in "Rogue One"? Because he is, and that's awesome. Anyway, because of the royalty rate, you have to pay Disney $7.50 more per shirt for Star Wars than you do for the app shirt.

So despite the Star Wars shirt being more expensive, you actually make more money (or have a better ROI) on the app shirt, to the tune of $2.50 more per shirt. A "Shark Tank" producer has explained all of this to you during a commercial break, because you were kicked off long ago ... because let's face it, who is investing in a two-shirt company?
I seem to have lost my way. Whatever. Five-year deal. Word count means nothing to me. (Editor's note: Don't I know it!) The point is that in fantasy, the idea of ROI is the same as in the T-shirt example. Every player has value. Every. Single. Player. It's just what it costs to acquire that player. Now, a player's perceived value is baked into his draft position. There's a reason Rob Gronkowski goes early in drafts and Eric Ebron does not. As it stands today, one is a much more valuable commodity.
But sometimes, players are not properly valued. Last year, Devonta Freemanwas priced as a backup running back on a so-so offense, going in the 10th to 12th round. His ROI was the No. 1 running back in fantasy, worthy of a first-round selection. Meanwhile, Eddie Lacy was a first-rounder in cost last season, but he finished outside the top 25 of running backs, making his ROI as a 10th-rounder or so.

Getting below-market players and avoiding players who don't return value is how you win in fantasy football. That brings us to this column, which is all about players who, based on ESPN.com live draft results for standard 10-team leagues, are either under- or over-valued.

Please use this column as intended.
It is not a sleepers and busts column. Rather, it's a market inefficiency column. With puns.

So here's what I did: I went to that ESPN.com average draft position (ADP)page. This is a list of the average rounds in which players are being drafted in ESPN standard 10-team leagues. I made notes about who is going too high or too low in drafts, and very soon I will discuss them.



A few more notes before we get there. Please understand that ADP varies widely depending on the site you play on. So while we hope everyone plays with us (I mentioned the new app, right?), we know some of you have stubborn commissioners who haven't seen the light. But I had to pick a list to do this off of and hey, I'm a company man, blah blah blah. So I am using ESPN's. So while I have Chicago Bears tight end Zach Miller currently ranked 10th (guess what list he's on), ESPN has him ranked 13th (though his ESPN ADP is 18th), a competitor's site also has him being drafted at 18th overall, yet another site has him being drafted at 26. So it varies wildly. It's very important to know the ADP of the site you are playing on.

If you'd like extra credit, a quick and helpful exercise is to go through the ADP on the site you are drafting on and, comparing it with whatever set of rankings you are going to use, see which players you "love" and "hate."

Since I have Miller at 10, and that's higher than he's being drafted, he's a "Love." Meanwhile, ESPN and two other competitor sites all have Ben Roethlisberger as a top-five QB this year. I currently have him as QB8. So for me, he's a "hate," even though I think Ben is a very good QB who will have a nice season. He's just being drafted too high for me relative to what I believe his return will be, so, you know ... "hate."

Lastly, remember that just because I "love" guys like Kirk Cousins and "hate" guys like Big Ben, I'm not saying you should draft Cousins over Ben. (Though I think it'll be closer than folks think). It just means at Cousins' ADP of 11th round, I think that is too low, while Roethlisberger's fifth-round price tag on ESPN is too pricey for me. In addition to not being a sleepers and busts column, it's also not a comprehensive list of every player I like or dislike. I think Keenan Allen has a big year, but I have him as a WR2, which is where he's going, so he doesn't make the list. He is valued properly. And to answer a common question every year, there's a reason there are so many more loves than hates. You don't really need me to tell you not to draft Case Keenum. His value and rank reflect that he's not thought of highly in fantasy. I'll still go round by round, and in a standard ESPN league there are 16 rounds, so you'll get at least 16 hates. I am from the "there's no such thing as a bad pick after Round 12" philosophy. So that means I am choosing "hates" only from guys who are high enough to be drafted with big expectations. That's a very finite group.

Finally, please remember this is being written in early August. No preseason games have been played, camps haven't been open that long and much can and will change in the next month. Fantasy value changes all the time. Roles and opportunities, information about players and schemes, draft trends, health and results in the preseason all play a factor, and if you refuse to keep your mind open and are unwilling to change an opinion of a player once you get new info, that's a quick way to lose. The next few weeks are crucial. Also, be sure to read my 100 Facts column, which will give a lot of context to every single thing you read this preseason. It's probably my favorite column of the year.

So follow me on Twitter and become my friend on Facebook, Instagram, Snapchat, the Fantasy Life app and whatever new app will be invented this week. Listen to our daily Fantasy Focus podcast, watch the "Fantasy Football Marathon" starting at 7 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 15 (Adam Schefter and I will be on TV for 28 straight hours. I may get fired yet). Read all the articles, news blurbs and rankings updates, watch the preseason games until it's time to draft, mock draft like crazy and then make the decision.
If you choose to ignore that, don't blame me for it. Remember, only a poor craftsman blames his tools. That's all I am: your tool. Wait, that came out wrong. Which is odd, given that I've used that joke seven years in a row now. What? I got a long-term deal. You think I'm updating my material now? Please. I'm going full Haynesworth.

Quarterbacks I love in 2016

Tom Brady, New England Patriots (ADP is QB7, my QB5): The Gronk You Tour, Part Two: This time it's personal! Coming off a season in which Brady was the second-best player in fantasy, it's sort of silly to think he's going to take it to the next level or anything out of some sort of revenge narrative. I mean, it's not like he wasn't trying his best last year. But consider this: As great as Brady's career has been, it's amazing to note that his completion percentage and TD total have risen in consecutive years while his INT count has declined in each instance ... the first time that has occurred in his career. One of the reasons for that is the continuity on offense. Last season, the Patriots returned every key offensive skill player to the team (sorry, Brandon LaFell, I said "key"), and they do so again this year while adding Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan, among others. They are a pass-first, second and third team; did you know the Patriots had a league-high 84 pass attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line? Brady scored on 74.1 percent of his opportunities (pass completions plus rushing attempts) inside the opponent's 10 last season. By comparison, Cam Newtonscored on 56.8 percent of such opportunities in 2015. The biggest argument against Brady is the four-game suspension and I'm just not worried about it. You can do a lot of damage in 12 games. You know who played 12 games last year? Todd Gurley, last year's No. 5 RB. Quarterback is so deep this year that five games of a replacement-level QB (suspension plus bye week) and Brady is easily a top-five fantasy QB. I wrote a little more in depth in my Draft Day Manifesto, but among the QBs I really like to pair with Brady are Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (ADP QB6, my QB6): So he's going where he should. I just wanted to throw him in here because I often see him drafted behind Ben Roethlisberger, and that's nuts to me. After missing a game in Week 3 because of injury, Brees was the second-best QB in fantasy from Week 4 on. He has compiled at least 4,300 yards passing and 33 total touchdowns for eight straight seasons. Or, you know, eight more times than Roethlisberger has. (Big Ben has never done it). Adding Coby Fleener and rookie Michael Thomas should help, especially with the emergence of Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, the return of Mark Ingram and a defense that should continue to be somewhat suspect. Per Tristan H. Cockcroft's always helpful consistency rankings, Brees was starter-worthy (finished as a top-10 QB for a week he played in) more than 52 percent of the time the past three years. OnlyRussell Wilson has a higher percentage. Big Ben? 33.3 percent. (You'll never guess who is going to be in "hate" by the way. Wait, you guessed? Who told you?)



Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (ADP QB13, my QB11): OK, so when you draft him someone WILL make a lame "you like that" joke. Warning you up front, you'll have to deal with that. In fantasy football history, it's second only to someone saying "championship" after "Houshmanzilli" in terms of way-past-its-prime jokes. BUT, that's the only thing you're going to regret about drafting him. He's going at QB13 on ESPN, but I have seen him much lower on other sites, and I guess if you want to poke holes, you can say he's unlikely to repeat the five rushing touchdowns. And that may be true, although I believe three of them were designed runs. When a season like that comes out of nowhere, the question is, in essence, why did it happen and is it repeatable? It happened because he was a perfect fit for what Jay Gruden and Sean McVay wanted to do offensively. They had to throw aggressively because of their poor defense and he finally figured out how to stop turning the ball over. You look atJordan Reed, DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson, along with a lack of depth in the backfield, and this is a team that will be throwing. A LOT. So yeah, totally repeatable. Did you see this nugget in John Keim's blog post? It included this quote: "After the first Dallas game, the Redskins changed their offensive approach. Offensive coordinator Sean McVay knew he needed to stay more aggressive with the passing game." That Dallas game was Week 13. Weeks 14-17, Washington (Cousins didn't play all of Week 17) led the NFL in yards per attempt, QBR and completion percentage, tied for the lead in passing touchdowns, and was third in passing yards. Need more of a sample size? Fine.

Jokes aside, the Tampa Bay game in Week 7 (the "You like that!" game) was a turning point for Cousins, as he led his team back to an improbable victory and seemed to finally feel comfortable in the offense, knowing the team was his. (Remember, RG III was the starter at the beginning of camp.) From Week 7 on, he had the fifth-best QBR in the NFL, led the NFL in completion percentage and yards per attempt, was sixth in touchdown passes, threw just three picks and only Cam Newton and Russell Wilson had more fantasy points per game.
Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills (ADP QB18, my QB12): Taylor is playing for a contract extension and locked into the starting job this season (he was splitting reps all through training camp last year). On a points-per-game basis last season, he was the eighth-best QB in fantasy, the team finally figured out how to use Sammy Watkins and I need some short entries because I just wrote a novel on Kirk Cousins.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (ADP QB20, my QB 13): Yes, there's no Calvin Johnson. But while Marvin Jones isn't Calvin, he's still pretty good. And one might even say Stafford is Cooterrific. Coming out of their Week 9 bye last season (after Jim Bob Cooter was installed as offensive coordinator), Stafford was a different guy, much more comfortable in the offense. After the bye, Stafford ranked first in completions, second in completion percentage, tied for third in touchdown passes, fifth in passing yards, threw just two interceptions and had more than 310 passing yards OR multiple touchdown passes in all seven of his games. He was the fourth-best fantasy QB in that time frame. An improved offensive line should keep him more upright and while I don't expect him to be the fourth-best fantasy QB this year -- and yeah, no Megatron -- he's going outside the top 15. Come on!
Others receiving votes: From Weeks 10-17, Jameis Winston was the ninth-best QB in fantasy. Some of that is skewed by his five-touchdown game against Philly, but even without that game, he averaged better than 16 points a game. I like Winston to improve his accuracy and efficiency this season and take a next step. ... Yes, it has been a minute but Robert Griffin III has been a top-10 fantasy QB before. Andy Dalton averaged more than 16 points a game under Hue Jackson and obviously doesn't have the rushing upside of RG III. If Josh Gordon comes back to being Josh Gordon. ... Finally, this is being written before even one preseason game has been played, but whoever wins the 49ers QB job is interesting to me. Chip Kelly made fantasy stars out of the likes ofNick Foles and Mark Sanchez. Whatever you think of Colin Kaepernick orBlaine Gabbert, you can't tell me Foles or Sanchez is better. Because they aren't. They all can run some and by the way, Jeff Driskel is worth remembering toward the end of your dynasty draft.


Quarterbacks I hate in 2016

Any QB drafted in the first four rounds: The position is the deepest it has ever been. Wait on a QB. Wait, wait, wait, especially in ESPN standard 10-team leagues.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP QB5, my QB8): I know. You're shocked. It's not that I don't like him, I just don't like as much as everyone else. It's insane to me that he's going ahead of Brees. Ben's best season ever was 2014, which featured the two six-touchdown games and he was still just five points better than Brees that year. Five. As mentioned in the Brees write-up, this is about the inconsistency of Roethlisberger ("startable" as a top-10 option only 33 percent of the time the past three seasons). He has played all 16 games only three times in his career and while replacement level at QB is strong, if you're drafting one of the top five you're doing it so that you don't have to waste a roster spot on another QB. Losing Martavis Bryant to suspension doesn't help and new tight end Ladarius Green is already banged up. Big Ben will definitely be a solid fantasy QB this season, but if he finishes as a top-five QB (where he's being drafted), it would be only the second time in 13 years he has done so.

Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP QB10, my QB14): The weird part is I actually think Bortles takes a step forward and becomes a better NFL QB this season while regressing as a fantasy QB. I pointed this out in 100 Facts, but so much of his production last season came while the Jags were down big (15 TDs when trailing by 10 or more and 83 percent of his total TDs came when trailing). The Jags will have a better defense and a more balanced offense, especially in close. Last season, no QB had more passing attempts inside an opponent's 10-yard line, and only one had more such passing touchdowns than Bortles. The addition of Chris Ivory (fourth-most rushing attempts and tied for the seventh-most rushing touchdowns inside an opponent's 10-yard line the past two seasons) should also bring that back to the mean. Bortles does have talented offensive players around him, of course, and if he can solve his accuracy and turnover issues Jags fans should be excited. He'll be solid this season and have some big games, but those expecting last year's top-five QB again will be disappointed.

Running backs I love in 2016


Lamar Miller, RB, Houston Texans (ADP RB7, my RB3): This is something like the 15th annual preseason "Love/Hate" and some things have remained unchanged. It's insanely long, there's an egocentric trope about myself to start it and Lamar Miller is listed as a "love." He has been a love every year he has been in the league, and while he always has seemed to leave us wanting more, this might be the last year I get to use him here, because as he shoots up the ranks, it becomes harder to say he's "undervalued." But I believe he's a first-rounder this year and so far, he has not being drafted like it. "Free Lamar Miller" was a frequent chant heard during his time in Miami. By this point you probably know that, of running backs with at least 400 carries the past two seasons, he has the highest yards-per-carry (YPC) mark. This will give you an idea of what we are talking about here with Miller:

Past two seasons:

Lamar Miller: 403 carries for 1,971 yards and 16 rushing touchdowns
Le'Veon Bell: 410 carries for 1,917 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns

Bell obviously kills him in receptions, averaging about two more per game. And yes, Le'Veon has played 10 fewer games than Miller in this span, which is why the totals are so close. But the point remains: They've had basically the same number of touches over the past two years and look how they compare.
Now let's talk about Miller and touches. Under Bill O'Brien, Arian Fosteraveraged 23 touches a game, which is 368 during the course of the season. Last season, Miller had only 241 touches. With Miller expecting a workload similar to what Bell gets when healthy, imagine what he can do. On a per-touch basis, he has produced like an elite back. This season, he'll get the work to put up elite totals every week. All in on Lamar Miller. ALL. IN.

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills (ADP RB13, my RB9): He's not without risk, of course, but then again, aren't we all? Tyrod Taylor helps all facets of this offense including the run game, because run, they shall. The Bills ended last season with five straight games with 30-plus rush attempts, the second-longest streak of 2015 and the longest active streak heading into 2016. Karlos Williamsis an important handcuff when he comes back from suspension, but there will be enough runs for all involved. The offensive line improved a lot last season, as McCoy and Williams averaged 5.41 yards per carry going left behind Richie Incognito and Cordy Glenn last year. While Glenn is expected to sit out the preseason, I'm not concerned at the moment.

C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos (ADP RB14, my RB12): He seems to be creeping up in ADP. When I was putting this list together he was a bit lower, but regardless, he's a love for me. Look, what's Denver going to do? Let Paxton Sanchez Siemian throw it? Exactly. If I'm Gary Kubiak, and as far as you know, I could be, I'm going to win this year by playing great defense and running the ball, traditionally a hallmark of a Kubiak offense. And when CJA has gotten the rock, he has been effective. In 11 career games with 15-plus rushes (including playoffs), Anderson has totaled 1,083 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Only Todd Gurley and Adrian Peterson hit both of those benchmarks in 2015 and, if projected over a 16-game season, works out to 1,575 yards rushing and 14 touchdowns, which on rushing totals only would've made him the No. 2 running back in fantasy last season. Finally healthy after a slow start to the season, Anderson looked like his old self down the stretch. And the fact that Denver matched Miami's offer to keep him bodes well for how they think of him.

Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts (ADP RB28, my RB20): In last year's Love/Hate, here's what I wrote about Gore:
When the apocalypse comes -- and it's coming -- the only beings that will survive are Frank Gore and people who look exactly like Frank Gore because, in an apocalypse, everything gets nutty and it's hard to concentrate. It'll be easier for the zombies to not mess with anyone who might or might not be Frank Gore and focus their efforts on the rest of us pathetic humans. Frank Gore will not die. He's like a Twinkie, if that Twinkie were filled with tasty fantasy points, that is!

Looking back on it, it's as true then as it is now. Sure, I probably could have written something new, but I got my deal. It's so much easier to cut and paste. (I'm telling you. Full Haynesworth here. FULL. HAYNESWORTH.) Yes, Gore's old, but he hasn't missed a game since 2010. Showing up is half the battle. As bad as the Colts were last season and as frustrating as Gore was, he still finished as the 12th-best running back in fantasy. That probably speaks more to how ugly running back was last season, but whatevs dude, it still counts. On a terrible team with a bad offensive line, and let's call it an inconsistent offense, there were still only four players (Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, Chris Ivory and Devonta Freeman) who finished the regular season with more rushing yards AND more rushing touchdowns than Gore (967 and 6). He had 14 games with 15-plus touches in 2015. In the past five games Gore played in with Andrew Luck, he had more than 90 yards four times and averaged 11.54 fantasy points per game (RB11 LeSean McCoy averaged 11.42 last year). The Colts upgraded their offensive line and Gore, who is both a very good pass blocker and decent pass catcher, will stay on the field as much as possible to protect Andrew Luck. He doesn't have very much competition for work as the No. 1 back on what should be a very good offense. Josh Ferguson is sort of interesting in a late-round sort of way, but this is Gore's gig as long as he's solid. And he will be.

Dion Lewis, New England Patriots (ADP RB18, my RB16): As the pass-catching running back on the team that attempted the fifth-most passes last season, and one in which the QB doesn't throw deep anymore, Lewis was very good in the limited time he was healthy. In the six full games Lewis played, he scored 73 points in ESPN standard scoring. Last season, only six running backs scored more than 73 points in their first six games. With 15 red zone touches (including 12 carries) in the seven games in which he appeared, Lewis is not only a third-down back. Since Tom Brady's average depth of target has dropped for three straight years now (more dump-offs to running backs!), Lewis is an integral part of the offense. Stop me if you've heard this one before, but yes, health is an issue. But when healthy, he's the best running back on one of the best offenses in football.
Matt Jones, Washington Redskins (ADP RB24, my RB21): Sometimes you don't have to be the best-looking one left at the bar, you just have to be the only one left at the bar. Matt Jones got a lot prettier when Alfred Morris was not re-signed. Now, Chris Thompson is going to take some third-down work and rookie Keith Marshall has impressed so far, but this is Jones' job. His leash isn't long, but he'll get first crack and I believe he will take the job and run with it. Ha! You see what I did there? Run? Running back? Whatever. I don't have to be funny until 2021. This is going to be one of the better offenses in the NFL and he'll be the main guy. Small sample size and all that, but when Jones has received work (more than 10 carries) he has averaged 11.9 ESPN points per game. Extend that to a 16-game season and you're looking at 190 points ... or the third-highest-scoring RB in 2015 (Doug Martin was RB3 with 187 points). He showed flashes of being special last preseason, was inconsistent in his rookie year and he knows it. Expect him to seize the opportunity.

Rashad Jennings (ADP RB31, my RB27) and Paul Perkins, New York Giants (ADP RB57, my RB37): Jennings was a beast down the stretch once he finally got work (the third-best RB in fantasy Weeks 14-17, the only weeks he had at least 14 carries) and this is going to be a high-tempo (fifth-most offensive snaps the past two years), fantasy-friendly offense. Perkins is a talented rookie who was an elusive pass catcher at UCLA (also averaged 5.6 yards per carry there). He'll fit nicely with the Giants offense. Now, Jennings is 31 and has had issues staying healthy in the past, so you need to make sure you have both of these guys (among the reasons I have Perkins as high as I do). But combined, this is an RB2 that you can get for much cheaper than that.

Others receiving votes: Over the past two years, the Bengals were top five in rushing attempts under Hue Jackson. He's going to run, run, run in Cleveland, making both Duke Johnson Jr. and Isaiah Crowell undervalued. ... Latavius Murray is not on the most solid ground, but the Raiders' offensive line is no joke. Rookie DeAndre Washington is definitely going to have a role in Oakland and he easily could have a big one. ... I am not a big Justin Forsett believer, so I'd watch the Ravens closely. Rookie Kenneth Dixon is a nice fit for Marc Trestman's offense from a skill standpoint and as of this writing, Terrance Westhas been the talk of Ravens camp. ... Chris Ivory, not T.J. Yeldon, is the Jags running back you want. ... The lead back in an Adam Gase offense, on a per-game basis, gets more than 65 percent of the RB touches. At some point this season, Jay Ajayi is going to have a lot of value. ... I think the jury is still out on if DeMarco Murray is really all that good. Derrick Henry is a very worthwhile flyer, especially with his RB37 ADP. ... I already mentioned Keith Marshall and Josh Ferguson, and I will say for those betting against Jeremy Langford(looking at you, Mike Clay), Ka'Deem Carey scored on all three of his runs inside the 10 last season and averaged over 4.5 yards per carry on a bad team. I know you all love Jordan Howard, but John Fox has traditionally not been a rookie lover.
Running backs I hate in 2016

Devonta Freeman, Atlanta Falcons (ADP RB5, my RB10): So yeah, I'm a little nervous. Let's start with repeatability. Since 2003, only five RBs have caught 70 passes AND scored 14 total touchdowns in a season, and none of them have done it twice in that span (LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice and Jamaal Charles). Does Freeman belong in this category? Furthermore, can he do something than none of them (or any other RB for that matter) has done since 2002-03? Now, Tomlinson and Holmes both did it in 2002 and 2003. Are you ready to say Devonta Freeman is LaDainian Tomlinson or Priest Holmes in their prime?
Obviously, he could still have a very good year and not reach those levels, and hey, I have him as a top-10 RB, so it's not as if I'm expecting him to fall off a cliff. He'll be heavily involved in the passing game, and the addition of Alex Mack to what was already a very good offensive line can only help. So while he beat up the NFC East last season (449 yards and five touchdowns versus NYG, DAL, WSH and PHI, which he gets again this year), the schedule gets tougher this year as they face the NFC West and AFC West. Most concerning is the second half of last season, when he became mortal. I've pointed this out before, but in Weeks 9-17, Tim Hightower (who hadn't taken an NFL snap since 2011 before Week 9) and Ameer Abdullah (who didn't play more than 42 percent of snaps in a single one of those games) had more than Freeman's 352 rushing yards. Freeman averaged just 3.1 yards per carry during the second half. He was also just 39th in yards after contact per rush. If you add Freeman's receiving yards, he was 20th among runners in total yards over the second half. Which is still solid, but it's not top five, you know?

Latavius Murray, Oakland Raiders (ADP RB19, my RB22): Murray has looked better in camp recently and no doubt, the Raiders' offensive line is no joke, so he's been creeping up my ranks a bit, but I'm still nervous. As mentioned in others receiving votes above, DeAndre Washington will most certainly cut into Murray's workload. And that's not a good thing, because last year workload was all Murray had going for him. Well, that, and an awesome name. My next kid, boy or girl, is going to be named Latavius.

His fantasy production was a result of volume (third in the NFL with 266 carries) and not efficiency (33rd in yards per carry.) He seemed to wear down as the game went on, averaging just 2.2 yards per carry in the fourth quarter last season and scored five of his six rushing TDs on his first 10 carries of the game. It wasn't just the games during which he fizzled out, he wore down as the season went on, too. Murray's yards per carry dropped from 4.8 in games 1-8 to 3.3 in games 9-16 (a 31.3 percent drop-off). How bad was he down the stretch? In Weeks 11-17, his yards per carry was 3.18 ... or less than Melvin Gordon's 3.26. In fact, there were 32 RBs to get at least 60 carries during that stretch, and Murray ranked dead last in YPC (Alfred Morris, Javorius Allen and Shaun Draughn are among the names who ranked ahead of him). He was also 27th among RBs with at least 40 carries in rushing yards after first contact per rush. Oakland plans on running more plays from under center this season, which should also help him, but I'd feel a lot better about him as my flex than as the RB19 at which he's being drafted.


DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans (ADP RB20, my RB25): How convinced are we that Murray is really good? Yes, he had great production behind the Cowboys' offensive line. But then again, Darren McFadden was the 13th-best RB in fantasy last season despite not getting double-digit carries until Week 7 and playing on an offense with no other weapons, as Tony Romo andDez Bryant were out for most of the season. Murray was brutal in Philadelphia. His 3.64 yards per carry ranked 65th among RBs, and if you subtract his 54-yard run in Week 17, we are looking at 3.38. Trent Richardson's career yards per carry: 3.31. And now Murray's in Tennessee, where he'll have to compete for touches with Derrick Henry (especially around the goal line) and third-down back Dexter McCluster. When he didn't get the ball last season in Philly he pouted, made a public stink about it and generally didn't play well with others. Forgetting the injury concerns (just one year of five he has played all 16 games, though he has been healthier recently) and granting that the Titans' system is a better fit for his skill set, you can't tell me there isn't real risk here if it all goes south ... and, you know, in Tennessee, that could definitely happen. Like Murray, I'd feel much better about him as a flex than the RB2 he's going as.
T.J. Yeldon, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP RB32, my RB42): How about I just put this red zone stat from last season right here:

T.J. Yeldon: 25 touches and 2 scores
Chris Ivory: 43 touches and 7 scores

With an improved defense, the Jags' offense will be a bit more balanced, and you know I expect Bortles to regress, but they're still going to be a passing offense. So now you've got Yeldon as the non-red zone part of a committee on a pass-first team. Friend of the podcast Allen Hurns came on the show recently and we asked him point-blank which guy you should draft. He said Ivory. Are you going to argue with him? Barring injury to Ivory, I'm not convinced Yeldon will be flex-worthy in non-bye weeks this season.

Wide receivers I love in 2016


Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears (ADP WR10, my WR13): Did you have Jeffery last season? You did? Then you know. Stephania Bell said on a recent podcast -- download it now. You don't need to listen! We just want the clicks! -- that Jeffery worried her the most of any wide receiver, injury-wise. Once again dealing with soft tissue injuries this preseason, he's a super-stud when healthy. I'm just not sure when that will be. I've learned a few things in my time at ESPN. Best places to go to the bathroom. How to get free tickets to Disney World. And when Stephania's worried, I'm worried. If he's my No. 2, I can live with it for the upside. But I just can't justify him as a WR1, which is where he's being drafted.

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (ADP WR18, my WR23): Love him as a player, but the problem fantasy-wise is the inconsistency. Hilton has scored a touchdown in only three of his past 21 games (including playoffs). Three. With Andrew Luck last season, Hilton had 31 catches on 62 targets for 548 yards and three touchdowns, 70 fantasy points and a reception on 11.7 percent of routes.

Donte Moncrief with Andrew Luck, meanwhile: 32 catches on 54 targets for 351 yards and five touchdowns, 62 fantasy points and a reception on 12.6 percent of routes. Moncrief is going two rounds later. Per Tristan Cockcroft's consistency ranks, once again, Hilton has been "start-worthy" (a top-20 option in a given week) just 43 percent of the time the past three seasons. I'm fine with him as my WR3 or flex, but he's going to cost you a WR2 price.

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (ADP WR20, my WR26): Tied for WR34 through Week 11 (when Jimmy Graham went down), Baldwin had a ridiculous run in the second half. Last season, no WR scored more touchdowns than Baldwin, yet 43 players had more targets and 21 players had more receptions. I'm going to name my hair Doug Baldwin this year, because they're both regressing.

Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP WR34, my WR37):Fourteenth in fantasy points last season, tied for seventh in touchdowns and tied for 31st in targets. I just renamed my hair Allen Hurns.
Laquon Treadwell, Minnesota Vikings (ADP WR42, my WR54): Love him in dynasty and actually think he'll be all right in PPR, but I'm fully in the Stefon Diggs camp as the Vikings wideout you want. They threw the fewest passes in the NFL last season and came within a missed field goal of being in the final eight. I don't see them changing their offensive philosophy that much, so I don't see this offense supporting more than one fantasy-relevant wideout. Time to start digging on Diggsy! Whatever. I'm punch-drunk at this point. I'm not wearing pants. I'm above the law!

Ted %&*!!#$ Ginn, Carolina Panthers (ADP WR51, my WR56):podcast fans know where this is going. Ted Ginn is not good at football, especially if you subtract his outlier -- not just an outlier for him, but historically. I mean, it was nuts - three-game run in Weeks 13-15 and project his regular season for 16 games, he'd have totaled 41 catches for 605 yards and five touchdowns. Charles Sims posted a 51-561-4 season in 2015. Charles Sims is a running back. A second-string running back. In an offense that was run by a rookie, not the MVP of the league. Seriously. He is not good at football.

He recorded a play of more than 40 yards or scored a touchdown in 60 percent of regular-season games last season (nine out of 15). He had done so in just 8 percent of his games (7 of 88) in the previous six seasons. The reason for this is that he is NOT ACTUALLY GOOD AT FOOTBALL!
You know that song "Drop It Like It's Hot"? That was originally called "The Ted Ginn Song."
He was fourth in the NFL in dropped passes last season, but the three WRs ahead of him on that list all had at least 28 more receptions than he did. You know why? Because he can't catch.
Am I angry about Ted Ginn? Did Ted Ginn actually cost me a playoff win in a league? Yes. And should he have even been started against me? No. Because you know why?

HE'S NOT GOOD AT %$%#%#%# FOOTBALL.


Tight ends I love in 2016
Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (ADP TE2, my TE2): Ah, you don't need me to tell you he's awesome. I'm just putting him in here to pad my word count. Ha! Nah, just wanted to say that while I am generally a "Gronk or wait on TE" guy, Reed is the one tight end I'm OK with drafting in the fourth round. You know I love Cousins, and Reed, a legitimate difference-maker for Washington's offense, is his main target. You know he was good last season, but do you knowhow good?

From Week 7 forward, Reed was the top tight end in standard ESPN scoring. During that stretch, he averaged 14.3 percent more points per game than any other tight end (Gronkowski was second in points per game and Delanie Walkerthird). When the Redskins get close, Kirk looks for Reed, as 18.4 percent of his receptions came in the red zone.


Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP TE9, my TE8): Stop me if you've heard this one before. Another guy I have ranked exactly as the ADP sees him, but worth noting that he ended 2015 with four consecutive games of 75 or more receiving yards, matching the longest such single-season streak by a tight end since 2011 (Jimmy Graham, five). In fact, he stands as the only tight end not named Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski to have a streak of more than three games since 2007 (Antonio Gates). With pass-catching options few and far between in Philly, I expect Ertz to have his best year yet and continue to be a popular pun in fantasy football team names. It Ertz when ____, indeed.

Zach Miller, Chicago Bears (ADP TE18, my TE10): Miller started slow in 2015, averaging just 21 snaps per game in Weeks 1-8. In Weeks 9-17, he averaged 49 snaps a game and was fifth in fantasy points among tight ends and seventh in receiving yards in that span. Small sample size, but when Martellus Bennett missed Weeks 14-17, Miller was fourth among tight ends in receptions per game, seventh in targets per game and fifth in fantasy points per game. With Bennett now on the Patriots and every other Bears pass-catcher seemingly hurt these days, the athletic Miller has a chance to be something very solid this season without the draft-day price tag.
Others receiving votes: Hope springs eternal on Jordan Cameron, but Adam Gase has had a lot of success using the tight end in both Denver and Chicago, and he specifically mentioned Cameron when I spoke with him at the combine in Indy. ... Julius Thomas started last season hurt and took a while to find his groove in a new offense and city, but he did eventually string four top-five TE finishes together from Weeks 11-14, and he's being drafted outside the top 10. ... Martellus Bennett is a must-own for any Gronkowski owner, but considering how much the Patriots pass and how many two-TE sets they run, I could easily see Bennett having legit TE2 value on his own. ... Gary Kubiak has been known to turn unknown tight ends into useful fantasy players before, so I kind of likeJeff Heuerman as a deeper-league flier to see if he can grab a role. ... I like the Raiders' passing game a lot this year, so I could definitely see Clive Walfordhaving deep-league value. ... I'm kinda buying all the hype we are hearing aboutBenjamin Watson out of Ravens camp, and it certainly won't cost much to find out.


Tight ends I hate in 2016

Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP TE 7, my TE9): Can he repeat? Eifert scored 13 touchdowns, but his longest reception was only 31 yards. Of the 59 instances in which a player caught 12-plus touchdown passes in a single season during the past 15 years, he is the only player without a catch longer than 31 yards.
Eifert scored eight times last season from inside the 10-yard line, despite just 52 receptions for the season. By comparison, Julio Jones, who is on the short list of best jump-ball receivers in the league today, has had six touchdowns inside the 10-yard line over the past three seasons (on 281 catches).
He's a good player when healthy and he'll be the pass-catcher you want from the Bengals after A.J. Green, but that TD rate is coming down. I've just renamed my hair Tyler Eifert. And oh yeah, he's hurt.

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</article>Ladarius Green, Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP TE12, my TE 12): His ADP has dropped now due to injury, but before he was going in the top eight, and if he gets healthy before the season starts, he'll creep back up there. Green has dealt with injury issues in the past, and he's also changed teams and is learning a new system. While Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley has never had a tight end as athletic as Green before, he certainly hasn't used the tight end as much as many of his counterparts, either. Since 2007, Haley's TE averages (as a position on a team, as opposed to just one specific tight end) for a season are: 54 catches for 561 yards and four touchdowns. That's just behind 2015 Eric Ebron (who finished as TE13 and missed two games): 47 catches for 537 yards and five touchdowns. Prior to Green's injury, he was going ahead of Gary Barnidge, who, you know, has actually been an elite fantasy tight end.

And that's a wrap. I know, no defenses and kickers. It's on purpose. Wait until the final two rounds in an ESPN standard league. You'll be streaming most of them anyway.

Special shoutout and thanks to Kyle Soppe, ESPN Fantasy researcher, for his contributions to this column. Now, if you'll excuse me, I am going to go take a nap on my boss' desk. Above the law, baby!
 

hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Wide receivers with the toughest matchups this season[/h]Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER


Strength of schedule is one of the biggest variables in fantasy football, but it's one that is utilized significantly more often during the regular season than it is on draft day.
That's especially the case when it comes to factoring in the defenders who each wide receiver will see in coverage. Thanks to a new age of player tracking, we have a better handle than ever before on these wide receiver/cornerback matchups and, with a little leg work, can apply them to season-long fantasy leagues (as opposed to just DFS).


Fortunately for you, I've done that leg work, which includes a thorough examination of each team's cornerback depth chart. I ranked each unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 71 percent of pass plays last season). I also factored in the talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position.
Once I had each cornerback unit ranked from 1 through 32, I took a look at each offense's 2016 schedule and determined which wide receiver units will face the toughest cornerback slates this season.
Note that because many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1-16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.


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RANKTEAMCORNERBACKS
1NYGJanoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Leon Hall, Eli Apple
2ARIPatrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, Brandon Williams, Justin Bethel
3DENChris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib, Bradley Roby, Kayvon Webster
4WASJosh Norman, Bashaud Breeland, Kendall Fuller, Dashaun Phillips
5GBSam Shields, Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins, Micah Hyde, Demetri Goodson
6CINAdam Jones, Dre Kirkpatrick, Darqueze Dennard, William Jackson III
7BUFStephon Gilmore, Ronald Darby, Kevon Seymour, Nickell Robey, Sterling Moore
8NEMalcolm Butler, Logan Ryan, Cyrus Jones, Justin Coleman
9MINXavier Rhodes, Terence Newman, Captain Munnerlyn, Trae Waynes
10HOUJohnathan Joseph, Kevin Johnson, Kareem Jackson, A.J. Bouye
11JACJalen Ramsey, Davon House, Prince Amukamara, Aaron Colvin
12ATLDesmond Trufant, Robert Alford, Jalen Collins, Akeem King
13OAKSean Smith, David Amerson, TJ Carrie, Neiko Thorpe, D.J. Hayden
14SEARichard Sherman, Jeremy Lane, Deshawn Shead, Tharold Simon
15DETDarius Slay, Nevin Lawson, Quandre Diggs, Alex Carter
16SDJason Verrett, Casey Hayward, Brandon Flowers, Steve Williams

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</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody>




</aside>1. Philadelphia Eagles
The NFC East is going to be a theme in this piece because two of the league's top cornerback units belong to the Giants and the Redskins. The Eagles are already at the disadvantage of having one of the league's weakest wide receiver groups, but they'll also need to deal with what works out as clearly the toughest slate of cornerback opposition. Philadelphia will face off with Washington (fourth best) and New York (first) twice, and also will have to deal with top-10 secondaries in Minnesota (ninth), Green Bay (fifth) and Cincinnati (sixth).
Jordan Matthews will work on the perimeter more often this season, but he's still the Eagles' primary slot receiver. This means that he's likely to avoid weeks when he's covered by top-end corners. In the above matchups, Matthews figures to see a lot of Kendall Fuller (WAS), Leon Hall (NYG), Captain Munnerlyn(MIN), Micah Hyde (GB) and Darqueze Dennard (CIN). That's a walk in the park compared to what the likes of Nelson Agholor and Dorial Green-Beckhamwill see on the perimeter. Neither second-year receiver is worth anything more than a late-round flier.
2. Dallas Cowboys
With two exceptions, the Cowboys and Eagles share the same opponents this season. Fortunately for the wide receivers in Dallas, those exceptions make their life quite a bit easier. Whereas the Eagles get Atlanta (12th) and Seattle (14th), the Cowboys will take on Tampa Bay (21st) and San Francisco (26th). Dez Bryant is arguably matchup-proof, but his fantasy owners will much prefer meetings with 33-year-old Brent Grimes and Tramaine Brock to those withDesmond Trufant and Richard Sherman.
Nonetheless, Bryant does still have a rough schedule in this department. He is sure to see plenty of Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Josh Norman, Bashaud Breeland, Adam Jones, Sam Shields, Joe Haden, Xavier Rhodes, Jimmy Smith and Darius Slay. That's far from easy and noteworthy come draft day. Bryant remains a fringe first-round target, but this is enough to confirm A.J. Green as a better fantasy asset. No. 2 receiver Terrance Williams is already an uninspiring late-round flier, but he should be downgraded even further.


3. Houston Texans
Houston revamped its wide receiver position during the offseason, which will prove extremely important as it prepares to face off with a tough slate of cornerbacks. The Texans' schedule is actually on the "easy" side out of the gate, with three of their first four meetings against Chicago (29th), Kansas City (24th) and Tennessee (32nd). However, a look at the full schedule shows that they'll face a unit ranked in the upper half of the league in two-thirds of their games. That includes meetings with New England (eighth), Minnesota (ninth), Denver (third) and Green Bay (fifth).
DeAndre Hopkins' brutal 2016 slate includes showdowns with Marcus Peters, Malcolm Butler/Logan Ryan, Jason McCourty, Rhodes, Vontae Davis (twice), Chris Harris Jr., Slay, Jalen Ramsey(twice), Sean Smith, Jason Verrett, Shields and Jones. Hopkins is good enough and will see enough target volume that he remains a top-end fantasy receiver, but his schedule is certain to limit his fantasy ceiling a bit. Those considering him over Odell Beckham Jr. or Julio Jones (both of whom enjoy a much easier slate) should think twice. This is also troubling news for late-round targets Will Fuller and Jaelen Strong.
4. Carolina Panthers
Welcome back, Kelvin Benjamin. The defending NFC champions open with one of their toughest matchups of the season, against Denver's Harris, Bradley Robyand, if he's able, Aqib Talib. From there, Carolina faces off with top-end cornerback units in Minnesota, Atlanta (twice), Arizona and Washington. Nine of the Panthers' 15 games will be against cornerback units ranked in the upper half of the league.
The Panthers aren't expected to lean as heavily on Benjamin as they did when nearly one-quarter of the targets went his direction in 2014. That's bad news for Benjamin's fantasy upside but likely good news for the team's offensive efficiency. The third-year receiver is scheduled for meetings with Harris, Rhodes, Trufant (twice), Grimes, Delvin Breaux (twice), Patrick Peterson,Trumaine Johnson, Peters, Smith, Sherman, Verrett and Norman.
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</article>Benjamin figures to get the most attention from opposing defenses, but many of Carolina's opponents have depth at the position and/or won't shadow him exclusively. This puts a damper on breakout expectations for Devin Funchess(although he remains a cheap flier in the double-digit rounds) and the prospects of Ted Ginn Jr.
5. Chicago Bears
The Bears are fortunate to have a pair of huge, highly skilled perimeter wide receivers, because their 2016 cornerback slate is tough. The Bears face an above-average cornerback unit in nine of their 15 games. This includes meetings with Houston, Detroit (twice), Jacksonville, Green Bay (twice), Minnesota, theNew York Giants and Washington.
Kevin White's progress will dictate whether defenses will shadow Alshon Jeffery, which is notable with standout corners Johnathan Joseph, Orlando Scandrick, Slay (twice), Davis, Shields (twice), Grimes, Jenkins, Rodgers-Cromartie and Norman on the docket.
Even worse, Chicago will face off with Detroit, Green Bay and Washington during Weeks 14-16, which works out as the league's toughest schedule during what is the fantasy playoffs for many leagues. You never want to overreact to a matchup, but Jeffery and White will face off with Norman and Breeland during Week 16 this season.
--
Wide receiver corps with challenging cornerback matchups who just missed the cut: Minnesota Vikings, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints.

 

hacheman@therx.com
Staff member
Joined
Jan 2, 2002
Messages
139,160
Tokens
[h=1]Wide receivers with the best matchups this year[/h]Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER


Strength of schedule is one of the biggest variables in fantasy football, but it gets considered significantly more often during the regular season than on draft day.
That's especially true when it comes to factoring in the defenders that each wide receiver will see in coverage. Thanks to a new age of player tracking, we have a better handle than ever before on these wide receiver/cornerback matchups and, with a little legwork, we can apply that knowledge to season-long fantasy leagues (as opposed to just DFS).
Fortunately for you, I've done that legwork, which included a thorough examination of each team's cornerback depth chart. I ranked each unit by focusing primarily on each team's top three corners (offenses had three wide receivers on the field for 71 percent of pass plays last season). Also taken into consideration were the talent and pedigree of each team's additional depth at the position.


Once I had each cornerback unit ranked from 1 to 32, I took a look at each offense's 2016 schedule and determined which wide receiver units will face the easiest cornerback slates this season.
Note that since many of your leagues won't include Week 17 in the fantasy schedule, only Weeks 1 through 16 are included in this analysis.
It's important not to overreact to any one variable when it comes to player evaluation, but this analysis should help you make better decisions (or at least break some ties) on draft day.
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TEAMCBS
32. TENJ. McCourty, P. Cox, B. McCain, A. Blake
31. PHIL. McKelvin, N. Carroll II, R. Brooks, J. Mills, E. Rowe
30. MIAB. Maxwell, X. Howard, B. McCain, T. Lippett, C.Culliver
29. CHIK. Fuller, T. Porter, B. Callahan, S. McManis
28. BALJ. Smith, S. Wright, J. Powers, T. Young, K. Arrington
27. CARJ. Bradberry, B. Benwikere, D. Worley, R. McClain
26. SFT. Brock, J. Ward, C. Davis, D. Johnson, K. Acker
25. NOD. Breaux, K. Lewis, P. Williams, D. Swann
24. KCM. Peters, P. Gaines, S. Nelson, K. Russell
23. PITW. Gay, R. Cockrell, A. Burns, S. Golson
22. NYJD. Revis, B. Skrine, M. Williams, D. Milliner
21. TBB. Grimes, V. Hargreaves, A. Verner, J. Adjei-Barimah
20. DALO. Scandrick, B. Carr, M. Claiborne, A. Brown
19. INDV. Davis, P. Robinson, D. Butler, D. Smith
18. LAT. Johnson, E. Gaines, L. Joyner, C. Sensabaugh
17. CLEJ. Haden, T. Williams, K. Williams, J. Taylor

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</aside>[h=2]1. New York Giants[/h]Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard truthers, rejoice! I graded the Giants as the top cornerback unit in the league, and they also end up with the lightest schedule in this experiment. The Giants benefit greatly from playing in the NFC East. They face off with both the Eagles (ranked 31st) and Cowboys (20th) twice, and only see the Redskins (fourth) once during most fantasy seasons (the second meeting is Week 17). Eleven of the Giants' 15 games are against cornerback units ranked in the lower half of the league, which includes a stretch after a Week 10 meeting with the Bengals where they face no unit ranked better than 17th.
Looking specifically at Beckham, it's hard not to see him benefiting greatly from the Giants schedule. The likes of Delvin Breaux, Josh Norman and Darius Slayare terrific corners, but they are arguably the best competition he will face this season (not to mention that they may not even shadow). Most of these units also lack quality depth, which suggests Shepard is even more secure as a fringe WR3 during his rookie campaign.
[h=2]2. Oakland Raiders[/h]As if there's not enough to be excited about in Oakland this season, the Raiders' top receivers will enjoy a favorable schedule in 2016. The Broncos' cornerback unit is the only one on the Raiders' schedule this season that is ranked inside my top 10, and with one of the two meetings between the teams set for Week 17, most fantasy owners will only need to deal with Chris Harris Jr. & Co. once.
Although the schedule is light overall, it's worth noting that many of the defenses on Oakland's docket have a standout at corner but not much depth (which is why they rank poorly). This is important in the event that Amari Cooper takes a big leap forward in his second season. If defenses decide to shadow Cooper, he will see the likes of Breaux, Desmond Trufant, Jason McCourty, Jason Verrett (twice), Marcus Peters (twice), Jalen Ramsey, Brent Grimes, Harris Jr., Johnathan Joseph, Stephon Gilmore and Vontae Davis. That's a fairly tough slate, but would open up a massive opportunity for Michael Crabtree to dominate on the other side of the field. Crabtree and, to a lesser extent, Cooper should be upgraded as a result of Oakland's 2016 schedule.
[h=2]3. Atlanta Falcons[/h]The Falcons face off with three cornerback units ranked inside my top five (Denver, Green Bay, Arizona), but otherwise don't play one ranked better than 13th. In fact, eight of the team's 15 games will be against units ranked 21st or worse.
Possibly more so than with any other team, the balance between the opposing team's depth and top-end talent at the cornerback position is very important. This, of course, is because the Falcons have Julio Jones and little else at wide receiver. This means that Jones is going to be subject to shadow coverage more than most. In 2016, the top-end corners who could follow Jones around include Breaux, Harris Jr., Richard Sherman, Verrett, Patrick Peterson and Peters. On the whole, the Falcons' schedule will benefit Jones, but No. 2 receiver Mohamed Sanu may stand to benefit the most. I'm not a huge Sanu fan, but a generous target share against a light schedule is there for the taking.


[h=2]4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers[/h]Because they're both in the NFC South, Tampa Bay and Atlanta have nearly identical schedules this season. In fact, the only reason the Falcons have an "easier" slate is because the Bucs' corners rank nine spots lower than those in Atlanta and the teams play each other twice.
The Buccaneers' schedule is interesting -- they have the league's toughest slate against corners in Weeks 1 through 4, but the easiest schedule from that point forward. That first month of the season will include matchups with Atlanta (12th), Arizona (2nd), Los Angeles (18th) and Denver (3rd). Mike Evans andVincent Jackson are going to have their hands full with four quality duos in Trufant-Robert Alford, Peterson-Tyrann Mathieu, Trumaine Johnson-E.J. Gaines and Harris Jr.-Bradley Roby.
The Bucs might struggle to score against Carolina in Week 5 and have a bye in Week 6, so the days prior to a Week 7 meeting with San Francisco will be the time to try to strike a trade for Evans and/or Jackson. From that point forward, the dynamic duo won't see a secondary ranked better than 12th (Atlanta again) and five of their remaining 10 games will be against a unit ranked 24th or worse. Of course, if the likes of Peters, Sherman, Verrett and Breaux are asked to shadow Evans, this will open up a huge window for Jackson to produce down the stretch. Evans is a quality second-round target and Jackson remains a steal in the double-digit rounds.
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</article>The Broncos join the Buccaneers, Raiders and Chargers as the only teams with fewer than three cornerback units ranked better than 10th on their schedule. Denver's schedule includes Cincinnati (6th) in Week 3 and New England (8th) in Week 15. The Broncos face a unit ranked in the lower half of the league in nine of their other 13 games.
Because the Broncos have a strong one-two punch at wide receiver inDemaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, it's possible defenses won't shadow very often. That's good news for the prospects of both players, since many of the teams on Denver's slate are top-heavy at corner. The Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs and Patriots enjoy decent depth, but otherwise, there will be many windows for Thomas and Sanders to pounce on weak spots. I have my concerns about Denver's passing game this season, but the team's wide receivers will, at the very minimum, benefit from their schedule.
[h=2]Just missed the cut[/h]Washington Redskins, Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, San Diego Chargers, New York Jets
With matchups against Carolina, Chicago and Philadelphia, Washington easily sports the easiest schedule during Weeks 14-16, which is the playoffs for most leagues. By that point, rookie Josh Doctson could very well be significantly involved in the offense.
Meanwhile, the Browns have rather volatile schedule, as they face the cornerback units ranked 32nd, 31st, 30th and 28th (twice), but will also play six games against top-eight units. This could lead to uneven output from Josh Gordon and rookie Corey Coleman.
 

hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]Fantasy football RB depth chart[/h]Mike Clay

The running back depth chart below breaks down all 32 NFL backfields in terms of current fantasy value for the 2016 season. This is a file I've done in the past -- previously known as the "Tamme Index" -- and it's important to note it does not necessarily reflect a player's position on his NFL team's depth chart.

A player listed in the "starter"column is the most valuable running back on his team in terms of fantasy value.
A player listed under "handcuff"should see increased fantasy value if the starter becomes injured or sees his role diminish.
The "value" column reflects the likely upside that player would have in standard leagues if he becomes a starter: RB1 (top 10), RB2 (11-20), flex (21-30), bench (worth adding to your bench as a flier), waivers (not worth adding as a free agent).
Other fantasy depth charts:
Quarterbacks | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Latest update: Aug. 17
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TEAMSTARTER(S)HANDCUFF(S)VALUE
ARIDavid JohnsonChris JohnsonRB2
Andre EllingtonPPR Flex
ATLDevonta FreemanTevin ColemanRB2
Terron WardLeave on Waivers
BALJustin ForsettJavorius AllenFlex
Terrance WestAdd to bench
BUFLeSean McCoyMike GillisleeFlex
Jonathan WilliamsAdd to bench
CARJonathan StewartCameron Artis-PayneFlex
Fozzy WhittakerAdd to bench
CHIJeremy LangfordKa'Deem CareyRB2
Jordan HowardFlex
CINJeremy HillGiovani BernardRB1
Cedric PeermanAdd to bench
CLEDuke Johnson Jr.Isaiah CrowellRB2
Terrell WatsonAdd to bench
DALEzekiel ElliottDarren McFaddenRB2
Alfred MorrisFlex
DENC.J. AndersonDevontae BookerRB2
Ronnie HillmanAdd to bench
DETAmeer AbdullahTheo RiddickFlex
Zach ZennerAdd to bench
GBEddie LacyJames StarksRB1
John CrockettAdd to bench
HOULamar MillerTyler ErvinFlex
Alfred BlueAdd to bench
INDFrank GoreJosh FergusonFlex
Robert TurbinAdd to bench
JACT.J. YeldonChris IvoryRB2
Denard RobinsonLeave on Waivers
KCJamaal CharlesSpencer WareRB2
Charcandrick WestAdd to bench
LATodd GurleyBenjamin CunninghamFlex
Malcolm BrownAdd to bench
MIAArian FosterJay AjayiRB2
Kenyan DrakeAdd to bench
MINAdrian PetersonJerick McKinnonRB2
Matt AsiataLeave on Waivers
NEDion LewisLeGarrette BlountRB2
James WhitePPR Flex
NOMark IngramTim HightowerRB1
C.J. SpillerPPR Flex
NYGRashad JenningsPaul PerkinsRB2
Andre WilliamsAdd to bench
NYJMatt ForteBilal PowellRB2
Khiry RobinsonAdd to bench
OAKLatavius MurrayDeAndre WashingtonRB2
Taiwan JonesLeave on Waivers
PHIRyan MathewsWendell SmallwoodRB2
Darren SprolesPPR Flex
PITLe'Veon BellDeAngelo WilliamsRB1
Fitzgerald ToussaintLeave on Waivers
SDMelvin GordonDanny WoodheadRB2
Branden OliverFlex
SFCarlos HydeShaun DraughnFlex
Mike DavisAdd to bench
SEAThomas RawlsChristine MichaelRB2
C.J. ProsiseFlex
TBDoug MartinCharles SimsRB1
Mike JamesAdd to bench
TENDeMarco MurrayDerrick HenryRB2
David CobbAdd to bench
WASMatt JonesKeith MarshallRB2
Chris ThompsonPPR Flex

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hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
139,160
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[h=1]Fantasy football WR depth chart[/h]Mike Clay

The wide receiver depth chart below breaks down all 32 NFL teams in terms of current fantasy value for the 2016 season. This is a file I've done in the past -- previously known as the "Tamme Index" -- and it's important to note it does not necessarily reflect a player's position on his NFL team's depth chart.
Players listed in the "starter" column are the most valuable wide receivers on their team in terms of fantasy value.
A player listed under "handcuff" should see increased fantasy value if the corresponding starter becomes injured or sees his role diminish.
The "value" column reflects the likely upside that player would have in standard leagues if he becomes a starter: WR1 (top 10), WR2 (11-20), flex (21-30), bench (worth adding to your bench as a flier), waivers (not worth adding as a free agent).
Other fantasy depth charts:
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Tight Ends
Latest update: Aug. 17
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TEAMSTARTER(S)HANDCUFF(S)VALUE
ARILarry FitzgeraldMichael FloydWR2
John BrownMichael FloydWR2
ATLJulio JonesJustin HardyAdd to bench
Mohamed SanuJustin HardyAdd to bench
BALSteve Smith Sr.Mike WallaceAdd to bench
Kamar AikenMike WallaceAdd to bench
BUFSammy WatkinsDezmin LewisAdd to bench
Robert WoodsDezmin LewisLeave on Waivers
CARKelvin BenjaminTed Ginn Jr.Flex
Devin FunchessTed Ginn Jr.Add to bench
CHIAlshon JefferyEddie RoyalLeave on Waivers
Kevin WhiteEddie RoyalLeave on Waivers
CINA.J. GreenTyler BoydAdd to bench
Brandon LaFellTyler BoydAdd to bench
CLECorey ColemanTerrelle PryorAdd to bench
Josh GordonTerrelle PryorAdd to bench
DALDez BryantCole BeasleyLeave on Waivers
Terrance WilliamsCole BeasleyLeave on Waivers
DENDemaryius ThomasCody LatimerAdd to bench
Emmanuel SandersCody LatimerAdd to bench
DETGolden TateAnquan BoldinFlex
Marvin JonesAnquan BoldinFlex
GBJordy NelsonDavante AdamsFlex
Randall CobbDavante AdamsFlex
HOUDeAndre HopkinsWill FullerFlex
Jaelen StrongWill FullerAdd to bench
INDT.Y. HiltonPhillip DorsettWR3
Donte MoncriefPhillip DorsettWR3
JACAllen RobinsonRashad GreeneAdd to bench
Allen HurnsRashad GreeneAdd to bench
KCJeremy MaclinAlbert WilsonLeave on Waivers
Chris ConleyAlbert WilsonLeave on Waivers
LATavon AustinPharoh CooperLeave on Waivers
Kenny BrittBrian QuickLeave on Waivers
MIAJarvis LandryKenny StillsFlex
DeVante ParkerKenny StillsFlex
MINLaquon TreadwellCharles JohnsonAdd to bench
Stefon DiggsCharles JohnsonAdd to bench
NEJulian EdelmanDanny AmendolaFlex
Chris HoganDanny AmendolaAdd to bench
NOBrandin CooksMichael ThomasWR3
Willie SneadMichael ThomasWR3
NYGOdell Beckham Jr.Victor CruzFlex
Sterling ShepardVictor CruzFlex
NYJBrandon MarshallQuincy EnunwaAdd to bench
Eric DeckerQuincy EnunwaAdd to bench
OAKAmari CooperSeth RobertsAdd to bench
Michael CrabtreeSeth RobertsAdd to bench
PHIJordan MatthewsDorial Green-BeckhamAdd to bench
Nelson AgholorDorial Green-BeckhamAdd to bench
PITAntonio BrownSammie CoatesWR3
Markus WheatonSammie CoatesFlex
SDKeenan AllenTyrell WilliamsAdd to bench
Travis BenjaminTyrell WilliamsAdd to bench
SFTorrey SmithQuinton PattonLeave on Waivers
Bruce EllingtonQuinton PattonLeave on Waivers
SEADoug BaldwinJermaine KearseAdd to bench
Tyler LockettJermaine KearseAdd to bench
TBMike EvansKenny BellAdd to bench
Vincent JacksonKenny BellAdd to bench
TENRishard MatthewsTajae SharpeAdd to bench
Kendall WrightTajae SharpeAdd to bench
WASPierre GarconJosh DoctsonFlex
DeSean JacksonJosh DoctsonFlex

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hacheman@therx.com
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Messages
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[h=1]Fantasy football QB depth chart[/h]Mike Clay

The quarterback depth chart below breaks down all 32 NFL teams in terms of current fantasy value for the 2016 season. This is a file I've done in the past -- previously known as the "Tamme Index" -- and it's important to note it does not necessarily reflect a player's position on his NFL team's depth chart.
A player listed in the "starter" column is the most valuable quarterback on his team in terms of fantasy value.
A player listed under "handcuff" should see increased fantasy value if the starter becomes injured or sees his role diminish.
The "value" column reflects the likely upside that player would have in standard leagues if he becomes a starter: QB1 (top 10), QB2 (11-20), bench(worth a speculative add), waivers (not worth adding as a free agent).
Other fantasy depth charts:
Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
Latest update: Aug. 17
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TEAMSTARTERHANDCUFFVALUE
ARICarson PalmerDrew StantonLeave on Waivers
ATLMatt RyanMatt SchaubLeave on Waivers
BALJoe FlaccoRyan MallettLeave on Waivers
BUFTyrod TaylorEJ ManuelLeave on Waivers
CARCam NewtonDerek AndersonLeave on Waivers
CHIJay CutlerBrian HoyerLeave on Waivers
CINAndy DaltonAJ McCarronQB2
CLERobert GriffinJosh McCownLeave on Waivers
DALTony RomoDak PrescottSpeculative Add
DENMark SanchezTrevor SiemianSpeculative Add
DETMatthew StaffordDan OrlovskyLeave on Waivers
GBAaron RodgersBrett HundleySpeculative Add
HOUBrock OsweilerTom SavageLeave on Waivers
INDAndrew LuckScott TolzienSpeculative Add
JACBlake BortlesChad HenneQB2
KCAlex SmithNick FolesLeave on Waivers
LAJared GoffCase KeenumLeave on Waivers
MIARyan TannehillMatt MooreLeave on Waivers
MINTeddy BridgewaterShaun HillLeave on Waivers
NETom BradyJimmy GaroppoloQB2
NODrew BreesLuke McCownQB2
NYGEli ManningRyan NassibQB2
NYJRyan FitzpatrickGeno SmithQB2
OAKDerek CarrMatt McGloinLeave on Waivers
PHISam BradfordChase DanielLeave on Waivers
PITBen RoethlisbergerLandry JonesSpeculative Add
SDPhilip RiversZach MettenbergerLeave on Waivers
SFBlaine GabbertColin KaepernickQB2
SEARussell WilsonTrevone BoykinSpeculative Add
TBJameis WinstonMike GlennonLeave on Waivers
TENMarcus MariotaMatt CasselLeave on Waivers
WASKirk CousinsColt McCoyLeave on Waivers

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[h=1]Why these players will score more TDs than last season[/h]Mike Clay

ESPN INSIDER


I recently explained how regression to the mean helps explain why NFL players are unable to sustain high touchdown production. As it turns out, regression to the mean goes both ways, which means some players are likely to rebound this season from a low touchdown total in 2015.

During the 2007 to 2014 seasons, there were 55 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than seven touchdowns on 70-plus offensive touches (carries plus receptions) before touching the ball at least 70 times the very next season. Of those 55, 42 (76.4 percent) scored more touchdowns the next season. Focusing in on the 20 players in that group who scored fewer than five touchdowns during the first year, 18 (90 percent) scored more touchdowns the next season.
We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. There were 34 instances in which a back failed to eclipse six touchdowns on 200-plus touches before managing 200 touches again the next season. Of those 34 instances, 27 (or 79 percent) scored more touchdowns the next year. Interestingly, there were six backs who failed to eclipse two touchdowns in the first year, but each scored at least five the next season. Even more interestingly, the average second-year touchdown total was 8.0.
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RUNNING BACKSEASONTOUCHESTD
Thomas Jones20073382
Cedric Benson20082342
Shonn Greene20102012
Lamar Miller20132032
Willie Parker20073442
Ryan Mathews20122231
Average257.21.8

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RUNNING BACKNEXT SEASONTOUCHESTD
Thomas Jones200832615
Cedric Benson20093186
Shonn Greene20112836
Lamar Miller20142549
Willie Parker20082135
Ryan Mathews20133117
Average284.28

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</aside>In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it's how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.
A careful examination of each player below's 2015 usage tells us that we should expect an increase in scoring production from them this season.
Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2015 OTD: 8.3 | TDs: 3
It would be hard to find a player who had worse luck in the scoring department than Evans last season. Jameis Winston's top target scored three times on 148 targets after scoring on 12 of 118 targets as a rookie. The big difference was efficiency near the goal line; Evans caught a league-high 10 of 19 end zone targets in 2014, but only 2 of 15 last season. Evans' target share is unlikely to decrease this season, and his 6-foot-5, 231-pound frame assures he'll continue to see plenty of work near the end zone. Evans is a sleeper to lead the position in touchdowns this season.
2016 Projection: 8 TDs
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles
2015 OTD: 4.7 | TDs: 2
Ertz has been heavily involved over the past two seasons, but it simply hasn't led to a full-on fantasy breakout. The reason? Touchdowns (or lack thereof). Since 2014, Ertz ranks fifth among tight ends in both targets (199) and yardage (1555) but is tied for 29th in touchdowns (five). The good news for Ertz's prospects is that opportunity hasn't been the issue -- he sits eighth at the position in end zone targets (14) over the past two seasons. He caught just one of seven each year. As was the case with Travis Kelce in Kansas City when Doug Pederson was offensive coordinator, Ertz is a good bet for a major role in Pederson's offense as Eagles head coach this season. Expect a career-high in the touchdown department.
2016 Projection: 6 TDs


Jarvis Landry, Miami Dolphins
2015 OTD: 7.3 | TDs: 5
Landry is a slot receiver who sees most of his targets near the line of scrimmage, but he's utilized near the goal line more often than his four receiving scores (7.1 OTD) suggest. He racked up nine end zone targets (tied for 23rd among wide receivers) but caught only one last season. Landry ran his other three scores in from distances of 4, 6 and 37 yards. Landry was targeted 22 times while inside the opponent's 10-yard line, which ranked 12th at the position. Also involved as a rusher, Landry scored from 22 yards out on one of his 18 carries, none of which came in the red zone. Landry's role may change some in new coach Adam Gase's offense, but he's a good bet to improve his touchdown total in 2016.
2016 Projection: 6 TDs
Melvin Gordon, San Diego Chargers
2015 OTD: 2.2 | TDs: 0
In the introduction to this piece, I mentioned that each of the six 200-plus-touch backs who failed to eclipse two touchdowns went on to score at least five times (average 8.0) the very next season. Three players fit that bill during the 2015 campaign: Gordon (217 touches, 0 TD), Giovani Bernard (203 touches, 2 TD) and Alfred Morris (212 touches, 1 TD). Gordon ranked 19th at the position in touches, but of the 72 backs who managed at least 67 touches, he was the only one who didn't find the endzone. Although bad luck was part of the problem, so was opportunity. Gordon was limited to one carry inside the opponent's five-yard line (Danny Woodhead had five) and only three additional tries inside the 10. The closest he was to the goal line on a target was the 16-yard line. The Chargers have scored 84 percent of their offensive touchdowns through the air over the past four years, and they aren't afraid to use scat back Woodhead near the goal line. Touchdowns may continue to elude Gordon, but he should still be able to near a half dozen scores this season.
2016 Projection: 5 TDs
Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
2015 OTD: 4.3 | TDs: 2
The aforementioned Bernard is a good candidate for a boost in scoring production this season. Although Jeremy Hill was (and is) the team's primary goal-line back, Bernard still managed 13 carries inside the opponent's 10-yard line last season (tied for 17th). Of course, Bernard failed to score on any of those carries, with his two touchdown runs coming from 13 and 17 yards out. Bernard is very busy as a receiver but does most of that work between the 20s. He accrued just two targets in the red zone last season, which helps explain why he didn't catch a single touchdown. Bernard is unlikely to ever be a good source of touchdowns, but operating in the offense that paced the league with 37 carries inside the 10-yard line last season certainly helps his cause.
2016 Projection: 5 TDs
Jacksonville Jaguars running backs
2015 OTD: 14.6 | TDs: 6
In Part 1 of this two-part series, I projected a sharp dip in touchdown production for both Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns this season. Those touchdowns won't simply disappear for the Jaguars. The team's running backs will benefit from a more balanced overall attack, as well as better efficiency near the goal line. Considering that 88 percent of the team's offensive touchdowns came through the air (second-highest in the league), it may surprise you to know that Jaguars running backs combined to carry the ball 10 times from the opponent's 1-yard line last season -- that trailed only Arizona for tops in the league. However, T.J. Yeldon (1-for-3), Denard Robinson (1-for-3) and Toby Gerhart (0-for-4) combined to score on only two of the tries, which ranked 19th. Enter Chris Ivory, whose 32 carries within five yards of the goal line pace the entire NFL over the past two years. Ivory led the NFL with eight carries from the opponent's 1-yard line last season and scored on three. We can't reasonably expect massive touchdown totals for Ivory and Yeldon, but it's a near certainty the duo will combine to exceed the six scores the team's running backs totaled in 2015.
2016 Projection: 11 TDs
Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears
2015 OTD: 6.9 | TDs: 4
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</article>Jeffery missed seven games but still finished tied for eighth in the league in end zone targets (16) last season. In fact, Brandon Marshall is the only active player with more end zone targets over the past three seasons (64) than Jeffery (53). Jeffery caught seven of 19 end zone targets in 2014 but only four of 16 last season. A target hog with a 6-foot-3 frame, Jeffery has double-digit upside in the touchdown department. Jeffery is a solid WR1 option who can be had in the second round of most drafts.
2016 Projection: 8 TDs
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers
2015 OTD: 4.7 | TDs: 1
Poor efficiency and injury woes led to a rough 2015 campaign for Adams, but some of the blame also belongs on unfortunate luck in the scoring department. Adams was limited to one touchdown on 92 targets. His only score came on one of his seven end zone targets, and Adams failed to find the end zone on eight additional targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Adams' 2015 struggles could lead to a demotion this season, but he remains the early favorite for the No. 3 gig in a high-scoring Packers offense that relies on three-wide sets more than any other team does. He's a post-hype sleeper in deep leagues.
2016 Projection: 4 TDs
 

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[h=1]The top sleeper fantasy players on under-the-radar offenses[/h]Field YatesESPN Insider

A successful offense is bound to include individual talents that carry substantial fantasy value. Let's look past the likes of the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots -- who profile as strong offensive candidates almost every year -- and find the best under-the-radar offenses to watch this season.
Here's my look at five offenses that might not be widely regarded as sure-fire top producers in 2016 but fit the bill as potentially potent ones. We've also included the names you need to know when drafting.
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[h=2]Houston Texans[/h]Did anyone add more speed to the offensive attack this offseason than Houston? It sure doesn't feel that way, and more speed should translate to a higher volume of big plays.
The most interesting addition is running back Lamar Miller, who arrives from Miami and is set to receive the lion's share of the work. He's a stud talent who, despite being underutilized in my estimation, still finished as the lead running back in PPR scoring from Week 6 on last year, with 14 more points than the next-best back. Miller has exceptional open-field ability and lateral quickness to avoid defenders.


The offense in Houston will feature him, and despite averaging the fifth-fewest yards per carry as a team last year, the Texans posted the fifth-most rushing attempts. The system is set up for a workhorse.
First-round wideout Will Fuller was viewed as arguably the best vertical threat in this year's draft. He dazzled at Notre Dame with uncommon ability to win downfield, posting eight scores of at least 40 yards. That's good news for an offense that ranked sixth in air yards per attempt in the NFL last season and spent $72 million on a quarterback regarded for his arm strength, Brock Osweiler. But Osweiler should chew up yards in the precision (short air yardage) passing game, too. On throws of 10 yards or less, he finished with a better completion percentage than Tom Brady last year. Did I mention DeAndre Hopkins, one of the best wide receivers in football? Enough said.
Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller add intrigue in this offense.

[h=2]Detroit Lions[/h]A surprise inclusion on this list, considering Detroit saw one of the great receivers of his era, Calvin Johnson, retire this offseason. But I think this offense has a chance to evolve and excel with "satellite" players, or those who excel in space. Last season, Matthew Stafford was one of two quarterbacks (out of 37 qualified) whose average depth of target on passes was less than 7 yards. That means quick, precise reads that allow pass catchers to eat up yards with the ball in their hands.
So let's look closer at the weapons Stafford has at his disposal, with newcomersMarvin Jones and Anquan Boldin joining Golden Tate, Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdullah and Eric Ebron. While Boldin has never been an overwhelming athlete, he's exceedingly reliable as a catcher and does his best work at or near the line of scrimmage.
The rest are all plus athletes with very good elusiveness and quickness. Jones joins Tate to make for a competitive receiving corps, Riddick is one of the most productive pass-catching backs in football, and Ebron and Abdullah are aiming to improve in their third and second seasons, respectively. The Lions need to hope that their aerial attack can alleviate pressure from Stafford and result in some less crowded fronts for Abdullah to take advantage of as a runner.

[h=2]New York Giants[/h]Yes, the Giants finished eighth in total offense in 2015, but there's room to grow as the team enters its third year in the system led by Ben MacAdoo, the former offensive coordinator who now is the team's head coach. The offense heavily relies on three-receiver sets, throwing 42 more passes from that set last year than any other team in football. That often correlates to an uptempo, spread-it-out attack. But it's not just schematics that matter, it's also personnel.
The addition of Sterling Shepard has generated substantial buzz this offseason, and he appears ready to assume a slot role from day one. Shepard has as much talent as any second receiver that has been healthy for the G-Men over the past two seasons, and less time in the slot for Odell Beckham Jr. can only be a good thing for one of the league's premier talents. Beckham averages 16.5 percent more points per catch when not in the slot compared with when he is. Shepard's presence means Beckham will spend more time on the perimeter, which means more explosiveness. Watch out.
The running game in New York has been a chore to figure out in recent seasons, but the more backfield talent, the better. Eli Manning leads the NFL in completions and touchdowns on play-action passes over the past two seasons. While Rashad Jennings has reportedly shown well so far in training camp, the addition of Paul Perkins in the draft only strengthens the backfield. That wont hurt the play-action offense.

[h=2]San Diego Chargers[/h]Much like the Giants, the allure of San Diego's offense is rooted in the passing game, specifically the volume of it and the return of a star wide receiver. Keenan Allen missed eight games because of a lacerated kidney last season, but still managed three games with at least 12 catches. DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry,Brandon Marshall, Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald, who all caught at least 105 balls last year, combined for just two such games.
But San Diego added a critical element this offseason that will open things up in a major way. Travis Benjamin can take the top off of a defense with his electric speed. His average depth of target (aDOT) last year was 12.6 yards down the field, an exceptional figure. Allen's aDOT was 8.0 in 2015, and he is used more along the lines of a Julian Edelman than a vertical field stretcher. Philip Rivers' aDOT on throws was fifth-lowest among 36 qualifying quarterbacks. Expect that to change this season, which should lead to more field-flipping plays that result in touchdowns or trips to the red zones.
Along those lines, the Bolts recently added James Jones into the mix. At 32, Jones won't win with speed, but he seems to just pile up touchdowns. He's eighth in the NFL in receiving touchdowns since the 2011 season. The Chargers are hoping for a more effective running game this season, and for what it's worth, Melvin Gordon had a really good first preseason game. But the passing game, which could be busy if the team isn't competitive like last season, should have a high ceiling.

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</article>Washington outperformed expectations in 2015, but many are wondering if this group is built to sustain that level of play in 2016. My answer: Yes. And it starts with the quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Naysayers will point to an inflated completion percentage that derives from throws at or near the line of scrimmage. But it's worth noting that Cousins hit a statistical stride driving the football down the field around the middle of last season. He registered a total QBR of 99.6 (out of 100) on throws of 15 or more yards down the field from Week 7 on. He also had four games with at least four touchdowns in that span, as many as Aaron Rodgers has since the start of 2014.
Cousins is loaded with weapons as well. DeSean Jackson is a quick-strike master, but the receiving corps is due to be even better once first-round pick Josh Docston is healthy and up to speed (Jamison Crowder was a slot fiend as a rookie in 2015). But perhaps no player will be more critical to Cousins' fantasy outlook than Jordan Reed. From Week 7 on (10 games), Reed totaled 63 catches and 10 touchdowns. He's the next best thing at tight end after Gronk.
And while Matt Jones must improve his ball security, he's an exceptional physical talent with big-play burst. He takes over full time as the starter after sharing a workload last year with Alfred Morris, who averaged just 3.91 yards over the past two seasons, second-worst among 19 backs with at least 300 carries. With Jones and rookie back Keith Marshall, who paced all players at the combine with a blazing 4.31 40 time, the running game should get a shot in the arm.
 

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[h=1]The smarter stat for projecting young running backs[/h]Mike Clay

ESPN INSIDER

"Torture numbers, and they'll confess to anything."
A perfect quote from the great Gregg Easterbrook, and one that is relevant now more than ever.
NFL teams have entire departments dedicated to analytics. ESPN Stats & Info is constantly delivering new, innovative data. Pro Football Focus is charting every aspect of every player on every play. The NFL is using chip technology to track each player's every move.
It's a new, exciting age for statistics, but also one that is quite convoluted. We're constantly delivering and absorbing data, but often we're unable to correctly process what is and isn't relevant to a player's prospects. We have snaps, pass routes, yards per carry, completion percentage, missed games because of injury, off-target rates, average depth of target, etc. The list goes on and on.
The challenge for NFL teams and analysts is to determine which statistics are important and which are just noise.
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One of these statistics is yards after contact (YAC). This is a stat I refer to often in order to help paint a picture as to a running back's ability. Of course, the most popular stat used to evaluate backs is yards per carry (YPC), which is very hard to predict (more on this later). As we'll also learn, a player's historical YAC is more predictable and there is plenty to be learned about those who very well (and poorly) in these categories.
How predictive are YPC and YAC?
In a nutshell, not very. At least from a quantitative, statistical, projection standpoint.


My sample here is the last seven seasons, which works out to just under 86,000 carries by tailbacks. In order to determine how well YPC and YAC project over a reasonable amount of time, I split each back's carries into groups of 200. This way, we can determine how well a sample of 200 carries projects the next 200. I came up with 199 instances that fit the bill during our window.
Analysis of the data shows an r-squared of 0.10, which means that 10 percent of a back's YPC can be determined by his YPC during his previous 200 carries. That's obviously not very useful and shows the random nature of per-rush production. There is a lot more that goes into YPC, including role, blocking help, scheme, defenders in the box, game situation, etc.
If we run the same test on YAC, we learn that 19 percent of a player's YAC can be determined by his mark in the category during his previous 200 attempts. Although this still isn't much to get excited about, YAC is nearly twice as predictable as YPC.
Activity at the Extremes
The main thing that jumped out at me during my research on this topic was how players at the extremes of these categories happened to, for better or worse, sustain that level of efficiency.


Our earlier YPC analysis included 199 players. If I remove the middle 80 percent of the sample, I'm left with the 20 highest and 20 lowest YPC marks during a 200-carry stretch. Analysis of this sample shows a 0.31 r-squared. Of the top 20 backs, 13 produced an above-average YPC over their next 200 attempts. Six more were within two-tenths of a yard of league average, leaving only one that could be categorized as poor. Of the 20 lowest marks, a whopping 15 came in below average, most of which were very poor. Only four of the players went on to eclipse 4.4 YPC.
I obviously ran this same test on YAC and was rewarded with even better results. Using our sample of 40 (20 best, 20 worst), I was left with an r-squared of 0.45. Of the 20 best marks, 15 were above average during the following sample of 200 carries. Of the 20 lowest YAC marks, 17 were below average and only two could be considered "good." I also tried cutting it down further by removing the middle 90 percent. That left me with 11 on each end and an r-squared of 0.67. Not one player in the top 11 posted a below-average mark over his next 200 carries. Only one of the bottom 11 went on to post an above-average mark.
I should add here that I did tweak this study to compare samples of 500 carries, but was left with a sample of only 32 instances to work with. That said, I won't dive into the data. I will say, however, that the results were a bit more predictive than our 200-carry samples and a look at the players at the polar extremes reflected the same results we saw earlier.
What can we learn from a player's rookie season?
Although this article idea was on my to-do list for a while, I'll admit that it became a priority as a result of my work (and the constructive responses) onJeremy Langford.
Langford, of course, was in a league of his own in terms of rookie-season struggles. His YPC and YAC production were poor. He failed to elude would-be tacklers. His catch and drop rate numbers were awful, and he struggled as a blocker. At the very minimum, Langford makes for a compelling case study.
Although the aforementioned data shows that we can't yet accurately project a player's efficiency stats, the narrative certainly changed when we took a more subjective look at players who fared very well or poorly in the categories.
Shown here are the 30 running backs who handled at least 100 carries as a rookie and at least 75 carries after their first year since 2009, including their YAC per attempt as a rookie, and then for their career thereafter. Honing in on YAC, the r-squared here is only 0.20, but the chart shows there's still something to be learned.
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RUSHERROOKIEPOST-ROOKIE
LeGarrette Blount2.942.16
DeMarco Murray2.461.77
Shonn Greene2.351.76
Jeremy Hill2.211.57
Chris Ivory2.182.22
Doug Martin2.141.90
Bernard Pierce2.071.35
Roy Helu2.031.75
Kendall Hunter2.031.76
Beanie Wells2.021.92
Ryan Mathews1.991.99
Alfred Morris1.901.84
Eddie Lacy1.842.28
Bryce Brown1.771.91
Giovani Bernard1.771.94
Zac Stacy1.761.77
Andre Ellington1.751.36
Andre Williams1.741.43
Knowshon Moreno1.711.57
James Starks1.661.84
LeSean McCoy1.651.58
Mark Ingram1.652.02
Daniel Thomas1.611.53
Trent Richardson1.591.51
Le'Veon Bell1.582.05
Tre Mason1.551.27
Alfred Blue1.471.78
Isaiah Crowell1.391.54
Jahvid Best1.261.42
Ronnie Hillman1.171.44

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</aside>Of the first 16 backs on the list, only two posted a poor YAC after their rookie season. Additionally, the three best post-rookie-season YAC numbers belong to three of the top 13 backs. Of the bottom 14 backs, 10 showed up as below average in the category on post-rookie carries.
If we split the chart down the middle, the top 15 backs averaged a 2.1 YAC as rookies and 1.9 on future carries. The bottom 15 averaged a 1.6 YAC as rookies and 1.6 after. Considering that league-wide YAC sits at 1.8, we see some regression to the mean for strong producers, but consistent poor production from those low on the list.
The likes of Bernard Pierce, Mark Ingram and Le'Veon Bell are clear outliers, but there are clear signs that, at the very minimum, we can draw some conclusions from rookie-season YAC.
Applying the data
This all brings us to the intriguing 2015 rookie class.
If we were to add to our earlier chart each rookie who carried the ball at least 100 times last season, four would land on the polar ends of our spectrum. Langford (1.1 YAC) would be dead last, and Matt Jones (1.4) would be fifth from the basement. On the other end, Thomas Rawls (2.9 YAC) and David Johnson(2.2) would rank second and fifth, respectively.
Obvious sample-size concerns aside, this is pretty damning evidence against Langford and, to a slightly lesser extent, Jones. Ronnie Hillman put together a top-20 fantasy campaign last season, but can be considered fortunate to have generated so much volume. Jahvid Best's career was cut short because of injury, but his rookie-season efficiency struggles caught up to him before he moved on from the league. The jury remains out on Isaiah Crowell, but he, Alfred Blue, Tre Mason, Trent Richardson and Daniel Thomas have certainly failed to emerge as productive NFL backs.
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</article>On the other hand, this paints a promising picture for Rawls and Johnson.LeGarrette Blount's fantasy upside has been limited by a near-complete lack of work as a receiver, but it's hard to argue with his rushing efficiency. DeMarco Murray, Chris Ivory and Doug Martin each posted an RB1 campaign over the past two years. Shonn Greene and Jeremy Hill are similarly built backs who saw a dip in production, but still maintained fantasy value while managing near-or-above average YAC production. And it's fair to say the jury remains out on Hill as he enters his third year. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Jerick McKinnon, who just missed our carry cutoff, posted a 2.2 rookie-season YAC. Keep him stashed in dynasty.
As for other 2015 rookies, Todd Gurley's 2.1 YAC ranked ninth out of our sample of 40 backs. T.J. Yeldon, Buck Allen, Ameer Abdullah and Melvin Gordon all came in at 1.7, which is just below average. Duke Johnson ranked 30th (1.6).
The Findings
Although projection nerds like myself can't use this data on its own to accurately project future per-carry rushing production across the league, there are indications that rookie-season data does, in fact, correlate with a back's long-term prospects.
Additionally, players who post outstanding (or dreadful) YPC and/or YAC rates tend to sustain that production over the long term. This study should make you wary of Langford and Jones and more confident in Johnson and Rawls. Of course, this group will make for a nice case study, as we watch and learn from their sophomore campaigns.

 

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Fantasy values changing in Patriots, Broncos, Jaguars backfields

Eric KarabellESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Fantasy football owners probably don’t realize just how good New England Patriots running back Dion Lewis was last season before he tore his ACL in Week 9. Even with most of his value coming through the passing game, Lewis reached double digits in standard fantasy scoring in five of the seven games he participated in and was a top-20 running back in standard formats. He was tied for eighth in PPR scoring. Concern about Lewis' knee being ready for September action was affecting his draft position, but now there’s clarity as he unfortunately needs another surgery that is expected to keep him out at leasttwo more months.

As a result of this weekend news, it’s tough to regard Lewis as worth selecting until the later rounds in a 10-team format, though those in deeper formats with the patience to wait until probably November should absolutely consider stashing him away. Still, the dynamic Lewis wasn’t exactly Pittsburgh Steelersrunning back Le'Veon Bell to start with, and he might be missing half the season, considerably more than the first three games. We dealt with this forCleveland Browns wide receiver Josh Gordon in 2014, to a lesser degree, as he was scheduled to miss the first 10 games. That made him a potential top-50 wide receiver for some, just for the December -- fantasy playoff -- impact. I’d consider that for Lewis.

Third-year player James White emerges as a likely top-20 running back for PPR formats, for he will handle the Lewis role, but again, depending on what you want to believe, it might be for merely half the season. White handled the role fine last season; add the production for Lewis and White together and it’s a cool 76 receptions for 798 yards and six touchdowns, and that doesn’t take into account their work rushing the football. White isn’t quite Lewis, though, or at least he wasn’t in 2015. The Patriots never gave him more than three rushing attempts in a game, and he rushed for more than 10 yards only once. No big plays, only two rushing scores, so he’s not really Danny Woodhead, either. In standard formats, where Woodhead is barely top-30 among running backs, I can’t place White there. More like Giovani Bernard to me, ninth or 10th round, and again, you might not want to use him the final two months.

Meanwhile, LeGarrette Blount doesn’t see his value altered, as he will handle the traditional rushing role and I think he’s really being undervalued in drafts. Blount, who bulldozed his way to 69 rushing yards and a short touchdown Thursday against the Chicago Bears, should threaten 1,000 rushing yards and double-digit touchdowns. Chris Ivory, then with the New York Jets, rushed for 1,070 yards and seven scores and tied Matt Forte for eighth in standard scoring last season, for perspective. Perhaps Carolina Panthers starter Jonathan Stewart is a better comp; his 989 rushing yards and six scores, plus precious little in the passing game, earned him the No. 16 scoring spot in standard formats. Blount is currently being selected outside the top 35 running backs in Round 12.

Since we’re talking Patriots here, let’s reiterate that choosing quarterback Tom Brady isn’t for everyone. I’m waiting on quarterback, but if he’s there in Round 7 or 8, he’s worth it to me. I could see Brady being fantasy’s top player -- which also means top QB -- from Week 5 onward. Brady missed last week's game with Chicago after slicing his right thumb with scissors, but there’s no reason for him to compete in a preseason game anyway. This isn’t Denver. We know what Brady is, and he’s got six weeks to heal up. Jimmy Garoppolo was 16-for-21 against the Bears, but even if he wasn’t, I wouldn’t worry about him in September or any adverse effect on Blount, White, Rob Gronkowski or other Patriots.
Of course, there was more weekend news than the Patriots, so let’s go position by position.


Quarterback: Again, this is the position we learn the least about in August. Most jobs are set and when it comes to the Denver Broncos, I’m not sure it matters unless it’s a two-quarterback format. And even then, are you taking and relying on Paxton Lynch? … No concerns yet aboutSeattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson, my No. 3 fantasy passer, but the offense has done nothing with him in there this month. So what? Wilson played the entire first half and completed a mere five passes, while enduring four sacks. Still, no adjustment to the rankings needed. … Cleveland Browns starter Robert Griffin III completed 6-of-8 for 96 yards and scores to Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor, and looked good running the ball as well. I continue to rank Griffin outside the top 25 QBs, but perhaps that’s misguided. Regardless, I believe he can make Barnidge a top-seven tight end and allow Josh Gordon to be as good as he was in 2014. … Dallas Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott really has looked terrific so far, and if something befell Tony Romo I’d be intrigued in a two-QB format. But Romo should be OK. In a dynasty format for 2018, though, if you miss out on Carson Wentz, I kind of like Prescott’s value.

Running back: So much is happening here, so I’ll aim to be brief. First, Le'Veon Bell had his suspension reduced from four games to three, and while it might not seem like much, it’s a big deal. I moved Bell up to my No. 6 running back, and might switch him with No. 5 Ezekiel Elliott of Dallas depending on how that situation looks health-wise. Remember, we’re not worried about Bell’s knee being ready to go in October. He also won’t be sharing touches withDeAngelo Williams. There’s good value in Round 2 there. … Karlos Williams should find work after the Buffalo Bills released him, but I wouldn’t bother drafting him in any format. He’s already missing four games and he’s overweight. But if Tim Hightower can be a top fantasy running back in December when he wasn’t even in the league a month prior, sure, why not Williams? Not that this had been in doubt, but Reggie Bush and Mike Gillisleeare the LeSean McCoy backups. Sorry, but I think I trust Gillislee more, if he’s healthy. … Slight scare out of Washington as sophomore Matt Jones suffered a slight separation of the AC joint in his left shoulder. As of now it doesn’t appear as if his Week 1 is in any jeopardy, so I won’t adjust his ranking. … Some people might never trust Denver’s C.J. Anderson again, but he broke off a long touchdown run this weekend and is the clear starter, and there are rumorsRonnie Hillman might not even make the squad. And, by the way, after a disappointing start to the 2015 season, Anderson was nearly a top-10 running back the final seven weeks. … The Jacksonville Jaguars continue to show that Chris Ivory is the main guy, and T.J. Yeldon is the backup and third-down option. Time for all of us to realize that Ivory should be drafted first.


Quarterback: Again, this is the position we learn the least about in August. Most jobs are set and when it comes to the Denver Broncos, I’m not sure it matters unless it’s a two-quarterback format. And even then, are you taking and relying on Paxton Lynch? … No concerns yet aboutSeattle Seahawks star Russell Wilson, my No. 3 fantasy passer, but the offense has done nothing with him in there this month. So what? Wilson played the entire first half and completed a mere five passes, while enduring four sacks. Still, no adjustment to the rankings needed. … Cleveland Browns starter Robert Griffin III completed 6-of-8 for 96 yards and scores to Gary Barnidge and Terrelle Pryor, and looked good running the ball as well. I continue to rank Griffin outside the top 25 QBs, but perhaps that’s misguided. Regardless, I believe he can make Barnidge a top-seven tight end and allow Josh Gordon to be as good as he was in 2014. … Dallas Cowboys rookie Dak Prescott really has looked terrific so far, and if something befell Tony Romo I’d be intrigued in a two-QB format. But Romo should be OK. In a dynasty format for 2018, though, if you miss out on Carson Wentz, I kind of like Prescott’s value.

Running back: So much is happening here, so I’ll aim to be brief. First, Le'Veon Bell had his suspension reduced from four games to three, and while it might not seem like much, it’s a big deal. I moved Bell up to my No. 6 running back, and might switch him with No. 5 Ezekiel Elliott of Dallas depending on how that situation looks health-wise. Remember, we’re not worried about Bell’s knee being ready to go in October. He also won’t be sharing touches withDeAngelo Williams. There’s good value in Round 2 there. … Karlos Williams should find work after the Buffalo Bills released him, but I wouldn’t bother drafting him in any format. He’s already missing four games and he’s overweight. But if Tim Hightower can be a top fantasy running back in December when he wasn’t even in the league a month prior, sure, why not Williams? Not that this had been in doubt, but Reggie Bush and Mike Gillisleeare the LeSean McCoy backups. Sorry, but I think I trust Gillislee more, if he’s healthy. … Slight scare out of Washington as sophomore Matt Jones suffered a slight separation of the AC joint in his left shoulder. As of now it doesn’t appear as if his Week 1 is in any jeopardy, so I won’t adjust his ranking. … Some people might never trust Denver’s C.J. Anderson again, but he broke off a long touchdown run this weekend and is the clear starter, and there are rumorsRonnie Hillman might not even make the squad. And, by the way, after a disappointing start to the 2015 season, Anderson was nearly a top-10 running back the final seven weeks. … The Jacksonville Jaguars continue to show that Chris Ivory is the main guy, and T.J. Yeldon is the backup and third-down option. Time for all of us to realize that Ivory should be drafted first.

 

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[h=1]Is Gronk being drafted way too high compared to other tight ends?[/h][h=1]KC JoynerESPN Insider[/h]
Only eight tight ends posted 100 or more fantasy points last season, and only nine tight ends were able to tally 10 or more points in a game on at least four occasions.
That might make it seem like there is a dearth of quality prospects at this position, yet the tight end position accounted for 9.5 percent of overall fantasy scoring last season, its third-highest showing in that category since 2001.
These numbers offer evidence that there is a lot of room for tight ends to be valued improperly in fantasy leagues. In an effort to assist fantasy owners in determining which side of the ledger top tight end prospects fall on, this first of a four-part overvalued/undervalued series will take a deep-dive look into cases of four fantasy tight ends.
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Let's start with the players who currently rank first and third, respectively, in tight end average draft position (ADP) in ESPN leagues.

[h=2]Most overvalued tight end[/h]Rob Gronkowski | New England Patriots
ESPN ADP: 10.8
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 1
Joyner positional rank: No. 2

[h=2]Most undervalued tight end[/h]Greg Olsen | Carolina Panthers
ESPN ADP: 41.7
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 3
Joyner positional rank: No. 1

Gronkowski's current ADP has been hovering around the beginning of the second round in a 10-team league. Olsen's ADP has been floating near the beginning of the fifth round of a 10-team league.
Given that Gronkowski scored 32 more points than Olsen last season (176 to 144), the average fantasy owner might simply be expecting a similar fantasy point differential for those two in 2016. That would suggest that fantasy owners believe those 32 additional points are worth three rounds of draft position.
Counting on a 32-point differential probably isn't a good idea for a number of reasons. The first stems from what an owner is giving up by drafting Gronkowski at or around that early second-round draft slot. Because the average fantasy owner is not drafting a quarterback by that point (Cam Newton's 15.5 ADP is first among quarterbacks), the drafter is giving up an opportunity to select a running back or wide receiver at that spot.


The math isn't totally in favor of this move, as the projected point differential between the running back with the closest ADP to Gronkowski's (Devonta Freeman, 198) and the two running backs with the closest ADP to Olsen's (Carlos Hyde, 172, Matt Forte, 151) is in a range of 26 to 47 points. Things don't entirely add up if the choice is a wide receiver, as the projected point total for the wideout with the closest ADP to Gronkowski's (Dez Bryant, 181) is between 21 and 37 points higher than wideouts with the closest ADP to Olsen's (T.Y. Hilton, 160, Julian Edelman, 144).
Even in the most favorable point projection situation listed above, the Gronkowski selection is only 11 points better than the Olsen pick. That 11-point differential is a plus, but before counting on it, take into account how much Gronkowski's production could drop off this year, especially relative to Olsen's.
Gronkowski will be without Tom Brady for four games. Even if that absence amounts to only a 10 percent per game drop-off from Gronkowski's 11.0-point per game average last season, it would amount to a decline of between four and five points. If that drop-off is even greater and hits the 20 percent range, the theoretical 11-point advantage mentioned above is gone, and so is much of Gronk's lead over Olsen over those four weeks.
Gronkowski also has what my schedule ranking system has rated as the fourth-toughest tight end coverage schedule in the NFL. Olsen, by contrast, has a schedule that rates as sixth-most favorable on the tight end coverage schedule list. Matchups aren't the be-all, end-all in grading player values, but this type of schedule variance can help close a gap of 11 fantasy points.
There is a concern that Olsen could lose some of his vertical targets to Kelvin Benjamin, but Gronkowski has a similar concern in that he could lose some of his short pass and goal-line targets to Martellus Bennett.
Add it all up, and it means a lot of the 32-point difference between these two could go away in 2016. Put that with the potentially more valuable early second-round draft options, and it indicates Gronkowski is the most overvalued fantasy tight end, while Olsen is the most undervalued.

[h=2]Overvalued[/h]Jordan Reed | Washington Redskins
ESPN ADP: 32.4
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 2
Joyner positional rank: No. 5


Upon hearing the cases for and against Gronkowski and Olsen, fantasy owners might wonder why they shouldn't take Jordan Reed instead of Olsen?


Here's why not: Last year, nine of Reed's 11 touchdowns occurred on short passes (defined as attempts traveling 10 or fewer yards downfield). That pace was tied with Gronkowski for first among tight ends and was nearly double that of the third-place finisher (Richard Rodgers, 5).
That would be a difficult pace to keep up under the best of circumstances, but Reed also has the problem of the Redskins wanting to lean much more on their vertical passing game. Kirk Cousins threw eight vertical touchdown passes (defined as scoring plays on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), a total that ranked 22nd out of 24 quarterbacks with 125 or more vertical passes last season.
This lack of downfield success is a primary factor in why Washington didn't want to make a long-term commitment to Cousins this offseason. Cousins will aim to remedy that with a lot more long passes to the returning DeSean Jackson. If this newfound lean on the vertical game cuts into Reed's short pass touchdown production, it will quickly drop him out of the running for one of the top two fantasy tight end spots this season.
Tyler Eifert | Cincinnati Bengals
ESPN ADP: 88.9
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 7
KC Joyner positional rank: No. 13

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</article>Eifert's No. 7 ranking in draft position is just a step below his 2015 campaign, in which his 135 fantasy points ranked sixth among tight ends. It might seem like that number is low, considering Eifert posted that point total in only 13 games, but there are multiple problems with expecting a repeat of that performance.
For starters, Eifert suffered an ankle injury during the Pro Bowl. This injury will cause him to miss most of the preseason and could cause him to miss regular-season games and/or deal with injury rust early in the season.
Another potential area of decline is in vertical touchdown passes. Eifert tallied nine scores of this nature last year, a total that was nearly double that of the second-place finishers in this category (Gary Barnidge and Antonio Gates, both with five vertical touchdowns). An outlier of this caliber means it is highly unlikely that Eifert can keep up his vertical scoring pace. When that is combined with his injury woes, it is difficult to justify a starting tight end roster post for Eifert.

[h=2]Undervalued[/h]Julius Thomas | Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN ADP: 118.8
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 13
Joyner positional rank: No. 9

Last year, Thomas missed almost all of training camp and the first four games of the season because of an injury. The missed games caused him to be out of sync with Blake Bortles, a factor that was partially responsible for Thomas' posting five games with two or fewer points.
Despite all of these negative factors, Thomas managed to post 70 fantasy points. Prorate that over a 16-game season, and Thomas would have posted 93 points, a total that would have ranked 10th among tight ends. That should be considered the floor for his performance. The ceiling should be considered much higher because Thomas is now healthy and on an offense that has the talent to be an upper-tier platoon.
 

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Tyrod Taylor leads potential fantasy QB breakouts for 2016

Eric KarabellESPN Senior Writer

ESPN INSIDER


Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles broke out as a reliable, high-scoring fantasy weapon last season, doing so in his second NFL campaign and with modest preseason expectations. Sure, Bortles figured to improve from his underwhelming rookie statistics, but few were expecting him to end up among the top five of all fantasy quarterbacks. That was a major breakout and fantasy owners sure are interested in who is next to do the same. Well, that’s why we’re here, to not only tell you whom to avoid, but whom to expect big things from.

Before we continue with “breakout week” in this blog entry it’s important to define what the term really means, because as it is with sleeper, bust and so many terms in our fantasy world -- we’re all labeled as questionable now to a degree, too -- it’s not like we can check a fantasy football dictionary for clarity. To me, a statistical breakout needs true context based solely on value and expectations. Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly broke out last season and were valuable, but Carolina Panthers stud Cam Newton did as well. He wasn’t supposed to be the best player in fantasy and his 10th-round draft status showed it. Breakouts come from different value points.

To be fair and fully honest, other than the first guy listed below, I’m probably not going to be the one selecting many of the quarterbacks you’re about to read about. I generally choose one quarterback per draft, and he’s someone safe, reliable and available after Round 7 but before the big sleepers and young breakouts, when I’ve already constructed a solid base of flex-eligible options. Obviously many of us play in deeper leagues or those with different formats and that’s cool, but as always, unless specified, we’re talking about ESPN standard formats (10 teams, no PPR) and yes, they still are the most popular.

Potential top-10 breakout

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills: Fantasy’s No. 8 scorer on a per-game basis, it’s hardly a reach to expect Taylor to continue to emerge as a reliable option. He already has done it. Sure, the Bills are more a running offense than a passing one, but Taylor contributed to that with the second-most rushing yards at the position. I’d like to rank 14 quarterbacks in my top 10, so Taylor, still less proven than most others in the range and with minor durability concerns, missed it. But I expect big numbers.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Another fellow missing a safe track record, Winston might not have the pure upside of the fellow chosen one spot later than him in the 2015 draft, but I feel he’s closer to reaching his ceiling, with stronger weapons around him. Rookies generally don’t throw for 4,000 yards, but he did, and like Newton, some degree of rushing touchdowns should be expected annually. Really, Winston’s upside is close to what Newton achieved last season.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: Interesting rookie campaign, but 14 of his 19 passing touchdowns came in four of his 12 games. In the other games, he wasn’t so helpful. We could use more consistency. The Titans want to rely on the running game, and showed it with their offseason moves, plus it’s hard to see how Mariota’s wide receivers will be great, but stranger things have happened. He’s certainly capable of being a great force running the ball.

Potential top-15 breakout

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles broke out as a reliable, high-scoring fantasy weapon last season, doing so in his second NFL campaign and with modest preseason expectations. Sure, Bortles figured to improve from his underwhelming rookie statistics, but few were expecting him to end up among the top five of all fantasy quarterbacks. That was a major breakout and fantasy owners sure are interested in who is next to do the same. Well, that’s why we’re here, to not only tell you whom to avoid, but whom to expect big things from.Before we continue with “breakout week” in this blog entry it’s important to define what the term really means, because as it is with sleeper, bust and so many terms in our fantasy world -- we’re all labeled as questionable now to a degree, too -- it’s not like we can check a fantasy football dictionary for clarity. To me, a statistical breakout needs true context based solely on value and expectations. Bortles, Kirk Cousins and Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly broke out last season and were valuable, but Carolina Panthers stud Cam Newton did as well. He wasn’t supposed to be the best player in fantasy and his 10th-round draft status showed it. Breakouts come from different value points.

To be fair and fully honest, other than the first guy listed below, I’m probably not going to be the one selecting many of the quarterbacks you’re about to read about. I generally choose one quarterback per draft, and he’s someone safe, reliable and available after Round 7 but before the big sleepers and young breakouts, when I’ve already constructed a solid base of flex-eligible options. Obviously many of us play in deeper leagues or those with different formats and that’s cool, but as always, unless specified, we’re talking about ESPN standard formats (10 teams, no PPR) and yes, they still are the most popular.

Potential top-10 breakout

Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills: Fantasy’s No. 8 scorer on a per-game basis, it’s hardly a reach to expect Taylor to continue to emerge as a reliable option. He already has done it. Sure, the Bills are more a running offense than a passing one, but Taylor contributed to that with the second-most rushing yards at the position. I’d like to rank 14 quarterbacks in my top 10, so Taylor, still less proven than most others in the range and with minor durability concerns, missed it. But I expect big numbers.

Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Another fellow missing a safe track record, Winston might not have the pure upside of the fellow chosen one spot later than him in the 2015 draft, but I feel he’s closer to reaching his ceiling, with stronger weapons around him. Rookies generally don’t throw for 4,000 yards, but he did, and like Newton, some degree of rushing touchdowns should be expected annually. Really, Winston’s upside is close to what Newton achieved last season.

Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans: Interesting rookie campaign, but 14 of his 19 passing touchdowns came in four of his 12 games. In the other games, he wasn’t so helpful. We could use more consistency. The Titans want to rely on the running game, and showed it with their offseason moves, plus it’s hard to see how Mariota’s wide receivers will be great, but stranger things have happened. He’s certainly capable of being a great force running the ball.

Potential top-15 breakout


Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings: Nothing against this young man, but his inclusion on my'do not draft' list probably makes his place here look disingenuous. Still, let’s examine the possibility. The Vikings, like the Browns, drafted a potential No. 1 receiver. They obviously have a running game. Ultimately, the Vikings want Bridgewater to act like Kansas City’s Alex Smith, simply avoid turnovers and mistakes and don’t worry about 4,000 passing yards and 20 touchdown passes, but Smith parlayed that skill set into a near-top-10 finish in 2013.
Potential 2-QB breakout

Trevor Siemian, Denver Broncos: Take your pick on who wins the Denver job, but if I had to pick a winner today, it’s the 2015 seventh-rounder from Northwestern. Mark Sanchez is truly a backup, turnover prone and bereft of upside. Paxton Lynch is a raw rookie and perhaps much like Carson Wentz in Philly, the No. 3 guy for a year and then the obvious starter. Why not Siemian? He has impressed team personnel this summer and in preseason games, and the skills are certainly there.

Case Keenum, Los Angeles Rams: Surprise! Look, like Sam Bradford in Philly and perhaps even Siemian in Denver, Keenum isn’t the long-term guy. In L.A. it’s Jared Goff and he could be a factor in Week 1, Week 8 or not until 2017. Keenum, 28, really hasn’t gotten a fair shot in this league, and like Minnesota it’s likely to be a run-first offense, but dare to dream.

Blaine Gabbert, San Francisco 49ers: This one also seems unlikely, but the last time Chip Kelly made his debut as coach we all saw with our own eyes how Nick Foles, who we knew then wasn’t a star and he clearly wasn’t, tossed 27 touchdown passes in that offense with two interceptions. It was incredibly fluky, of course, and those 2013 Eagles didn’t have to face a strong NFC West schedule and with a leaky offensive line, but still, there’s a running back, there’s Torrey Smith, and there’s not much sign of Colin Kaepernick meddling. Plus, once he started playing last season, Gabbert averaged more than 15 fantasy points per game, same or greater during that span as Carr, Andy Dalton, Philip Rivers and … you get the point. Gabbert could be usable in the deepest of formats.
 

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Which QBs are being taken too high, too low in fantasy drafts?


KC Joyner

ESPN Insider



Last year, 16 quarterbacks scored 250 or more points in ESPN standard scoring fantasy leagues.

That pace pushed the fantasy quarterback position to score 8,301 points. It was the highest point total the fantasy quarterback position has scored dating back to at least the 2001 season. Quarterbacks also accounted for 21.8 percent of all fantasy points, the highest total in that category since at least 2001.

This glut of impact performers is having an effect on how fantasy owners value quarterbacks, thus causing players at this position to be both overvalued and undervalued.

This second in a four-part series reviewing overvalued and undervalued fantasy prospects aims to highlight the outliers in these categories. This outlier group begins with the reigning fantasy points champion, an honor that has driven his fantasy price much higher than it should be to claim the highest average draft position (ADP) for quarterbacks in ESPN leagues this season.
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Overvalued

Cam Newton | Carolina Panthers
ESPN ADP: 16.0
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 1
Joyner positional rank: No. 7

Fantasy owners are valuing Newton at the top of the fantasy quarterback mountain because he led the league in fantasy points last year. The assumption is that history will repeat itself, but before counting on that happening consider this: After eight weeks of the 2015 season, Newton was tied for seventh in fantasy points among quarterbacks (131).


The major factor in his point turnaround was a second-half schedule that saw the Panthers face six teams that ended the season ranked 22nd or lower in passing yards allowed per attempt. Subpar coverage coordination was a big part of why these defenses struggled, and that trait helped Newton throw 14 touchdown passes on plays where the defense made a major coverage error. That total tied for the most in the league and is unlikely to recur since this year's matchup slate is nowhere near as favorable.
Carolina has tough battles against Denver in Week 1, Minnesota in Week 3, Atlanta in Weeks 4 and 16, Arizona in Week 8, Los Angeles in Week 9, Kansas City in Week 10 and Seattle in Week 13. With four of those contests on the road, Newton will be hard-pressed to consistently post the number of fantasy points he did down the stretch last year. It also makes him very overpriced as a mid second-round pick, especially given the depth of upper-tier fantasy quarterback prospects this year.

Tom Brady | New England Patriots
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 62.1
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 7
Joyner positional rank: No. 12

Part of this is simple math. Pro-rate Brady's 20.9-point per game pace from last season over a 12-game slate and it equals 251 fantasy points. That total would have ranked 17th among fantasy quarterbacks last season.

The problem with taking this tack is Brady was the opposite of Newton -- he had a fantastic start to the season, scoring 183 points through Week 8. That total ranked first in fantasy football, as did Brady's per game pace of 26.1 points, but his performance tailed off significantly during the second half of the campaign. He scored 152 points from Weeks 9-17, a total that ranked 12th among quarterbacks, but his 16.9 points per game total ranked 15th.


The schedule will make improving upon that latter pace tough, as the Patriots are facing a passing defense matchup schedule that ranks as the fourth-toughest according to my schedule ranking system. This combination of factors means that the second half of the 2015 season-Brady will likely be more prevalent during the 2016 campaign. That, and the four missed games due to suspension, makes him a better alternate fantasy quarterback option than the primary one his No. 7 ADP positional rank rates him at.

Philip Rivers | San Diego Chargers
ESPN ADP: 92.2
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 11
KC Joyner positional rank: No. 19

Last year, Rivers set career highs in attempts, completions and passing yards, achievements that helped him also achieve a career high in fantasy points (277).
That may sound like a great launching point for Rivers to reach more career highs in those categories, but the moves San Diego made this offseason augur in the other direction.
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</article>Primary among these changes is San Diego brought in Ken Whisenhunt as its offensive coordinator in an effort to upgrade the Chargers almost nonexistent rushing attack. A big part of this endeavor will be using more two-back sets and two-tight end sets, as Melvin Gordon excelled in this type of system at Wisconsin. Since no team ran more offensive plays with a one-back set last year than San Diego (1,067), this will be a drastic alteration that could convert a lot of passing plays into rush attempts. That will cause Rivers' high statistical volumes to drop off, thus making it quite difficult for him to match his No. 11 rank in quarterback points last year.

Undervalued

Drew Brees | New Orleans Saints
ESPN ADP: 49.4
ESPN draft positional rank: No. 5
Joyner positional rank: No. 1

What's not to like about Brees? He struggled at times last year, and yet still managed to post a slew of fantastic metrics.

Brees ranked third in vertical yards per attempt (YPA) (12.8 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), tied for fourth in vertical touchdowns (19), fifth in stretch vertical YPA (15.2 on passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield) and tied for fifth in stretch vertical touchdowns (10).
This downfield largesse propelled Brees to rank sixth in fantasy points (299), placing only three points behind the fourth-place finisher, Blake Bortles (302), despite Brees playing in only 15 games. Brees' 19.9 fantasy points per game pace was only two-tenths of a point per game behind Russell Wilson, who is ranked third in quarterback ADP (33.8).

Just keeping up at this level would be enough to consider Brees a top-5 fantasy quarterback, but the Saints added Coby Fleener, a tight end who in 2014 ranked second behind Rob Gronkowski in tight end vertical yards (537) and who was tied for second in tight end vertical touchdown receptions (5). Add Michael Thomas to the personnel upgrade mix and Brees has a ceiling that few quarterbacks can match.
 

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Breakout candidates, standout players and shoutouts to the best team names

Matthew BerryESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER


In a culture of 140 characters, swipe right, snaps with dog faces and whatever the hell chasing an imaginary Pokemon is called, we have increasingly become a country of people who have short attention spans. It's why there is probably nothing more popular than lists. Well, maybe Taylor Swift. A list of favorite Taylor Swift photos might actually break the internet.

And so, with America's love of lists in mind, we once again bring back an annual tradition in time for drafts. What follows now are 10 different lists ... of 10.

List 1: 10 players who are not being drafted as starters (outside top 10 at QB and TE, outside top 20 at RB and WR), but who will break out and be drafted at least three rounds earlier next year.

1. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins: So-so defense, no running game, aggressive play calling, just improved the offensive line and one of the most talented corps of skill players around.
2. Tyrod Taylor, Buffalo Bills: Actually broke out last season, just no one realizes it. Big arm, big legs and a legit top-tier wideout.
3. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Fantasy-friendly offense, talented skill players around him, one of only three rookies to throw for 4,000 yards. The other two, Andrew Luck and Cam Newton, were both top-five fantasy QBs in their second season.
4. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: Spare me the Alabama RB narrative and just take a look at the best RB on a Titans team that wants to run, run, run.
5. Paul Perkins, New York Giants: I love pairing him with Rashad Jennings, as both will come cheaply, and combined you'll have a legit RB2 on a high-scoring offense.
6. Ameer Abdullah, Detroit Lions: Post-hype sleeper, the skills are still there and now the offense will actually run the way it's supposed to.
7. Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings: Everyone wants to talk about Laquon Treadwell, but give me Diggs, who showed he has elite ability in a small sample size last season. The speedster enters the year as the No. 1 wideout on a team that will now play its home games indoors.
8. Travis Benjamin, San Diego Chargers: More for standard than PPR, but now with a real QB and a consistent role, Benjamin becomes a weekly big play waiting to happen.
9. Zach Miller, Chicago Bears: Finally has the full-time opportunity and the quarterback to take advantage of his 6-foot-5 frame and good hands.
10. Virgil Green, Denver Broncos: Tight ends with less skills have been nice fantasy assets in Gary Kubiak's offense before.


List 2: 10 leftover stats from my "100 facts" column

1. There's a lot of talk about a regression coming for Cam Newton's rushing last season, especially his 10 rushing
touchdowns. Fair enough. His arm worked pretty well, too.

Aaron Rodgers last season: 3,821 yards, 31 TDs and 8 INTs.
Cam Newton last season: 3,837 passing yards, 35 TDs and 10 INTs.

2. In the past five seasons, there have been only three instances in the NFL where a QB has thrown 600 passes, completed at least 66 percent of them, but FAILED to throw at least 29 touchdowns:
Matt Ryan, 2013
Matt Ryan, 2014
Matt Ryan, 2015

3. Derek Carr threw multiple touchdown passes in 11 of the 14 games in which he attempted more than 25 passes last season. The average top-five quarterback (Newton, Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Blake Bortles, and Carson Palmer) had 9.8 such games last season. Rodgers, the No. 1 QB in 2014, had eight such games.
4. In his past eight games, Kamar Aiken has caught 50 passes on 83 targets for 611 yards and three touchdowns despite playing with four quarterbacks. If you project all of those numbers for a 16-game season: 100 catches (on 166 targets) for 1,222 yards and six touchdowns, or 158 fantasy points in ESPN standard scoring. That would have ranked him 13th at the position last season. The Ravens led the NFL in pass attempts in 2015. Along with Aiken, other wide receivers on the Ravens include 37-year-old Steve Smith Sr., inexperiencedBreshad Perriman, who is returning from injury, and Mike Wallace, who is on his third team in as many years. Aiken is currently going as WR58, in the 14th round of ESPN drafts.5. In the seven games Vance McDonald and Blaine Gabbertplayed together last season, McDonald was the 11th-best tight end in fantasy. His 16-game pace with Gabbert as QB: 48 catches, 599 yards and seven touchdowns.
5a. Last season, Richard Rodgers was TE9 with 58 catches, 526 yards and 8 touchdowns.
6. Larry Fitzgerald was the leading fantasy WR on the Cardinals in three games in 2015.
6a. Michael Floyd was the leading fantasy WR on the Cardinals in four games in 2015.
6b. John Brown was the leading fantasy WR on the Cardinals in nine games in 2015. Brown is currently being drafted after Floyd and Fitzgerald.
7. Since entering the league in 2011, only Calvin Johnson has more receptions AND averages more yards per reception than A.J. Green.
8. There has been only one season in which a tight end eclipsed the 215 fantasy point plateau. It was Rob Gronkowski in 2011.
8a. That same year, teammate Aaron Hernandez was TE3 with 127 points in ESPN standard scoring.
9. Last season, Thomas Rawls ranked 33rd in carries. He was tied for eighth in carries gaining 20-plus yards.
10. In the 15 games Jameis Winston and Mike Evans played together last season, Evans was responsible for 25 percent of Winston's completions and 29.3 percent of his targets.
10a. Players responsible for less than 25 percent of their team's completions in 2015 included Doug Baldwin (23.4 percent), Allen Robinson (22.5 percent),Jordan Reed (22.5 percent).
10b. Players responsible for less than 29.3 percent of their team's targets in 2015 included Brandon Marshall (29.0 percent), Jarvis Landry (28.7 percent), A.J. Green (26.8 percent) and Larry Fitzgerald (26.3 percent).
10c. Even with a missed game, Evans ranked seventh in target percentage and 13th in reception percentage.


List 3: 10 rookies I would draft, in order, in a dynasty league

1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
2. Josh Doctson, WR, Washington Redskins
3. Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
4. Corey Coleman, WR, Cleveland Browns
5. Laquon Treadwell, WR, Minnesota Vikings
6. Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans
8. Devontae Booker, RB, Denver Broncos
9. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
10. Leonte Carroo, WR, Miami Dolphins


List 4: 10 best fantasy football team names (that I can print!)

As always, way too many submissions to make them all into the column. There were thousands (yes, thousands) of submissions on Facebook and Twitter, but I can tell you that Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert, Stefon Diggs, Harambe the gorilla, J.J. Watt, Isaiah Pead, Todd Gurley and Michael Vick were popular choices. Just assume if you have one of them in your team name, you are one of many, many people with the same joke.

1. Dak in a Box -- many
2. The Zeke-A-Virus -- Charethcutestory on FantasyLife app
3. A Team Has No Name -- many
4. Hooked on a Thielen -- Papa Stone on Facebook
5. Schweddy Rawls -- @markacollins
6. Teamy McTeamface -- @billkuennen
7. Bortlestar Gallactica -- Therron Hamaker on Facebook
8. Get me to the Zeke -- @Serrano1677
9. Swim Shady (complete with Ryan Lochte avatar) -- Brett Duvall on Facebook
10. You're my Boyd, Alfred Blue -- Brian Faulkner on Facebook



List 5: 10 players whose stock has risen the past few weeks and need to be on your radar

1. Kenjon Barner, RB, Philadelphia Eagles: Now the No. 2 RB in Philly, he needs to be on your radar, especially given Ryan Mathews' injury history and the reports that Wendell Smallwood is struggling with pass protection.
2. Rob Kelley, RB, Washington Redskins: At least for the moment, the undrafted free agent appears to have passed Keith Marshall on the depth chart to be the No. 2 behind Matt Jones. I still expect Washington to sign a veteran, but so far the former Tulane star is the handcuff to Jones, who has struggled with injuries in the past and is currently out for the rest of the preseason.
3. Christine Michael, RB, Seattle Seahawks: I mentioned this in my piece about what I learned at the fantasy marathon, but Louis Riddick (whom I have tremendous respect for) says he has seen "a light go on for Michael." Always super-talented, Michael has been slow to transition to the pro level, but now seems to be adjusting and looks great. He will have a role in Seattle's offense this season.
4. Terrance West, RB, Baltimore Ravens: Having a great camp and preseason, West has definitely carved out a role for himself on the Ravens, and there's a decent chance he's starting for them at some point this season.
5. Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: The Bengals are already using the talented rookie all over the field, there are 153 targets that need to be replaced, and sorry, but I am not a Brandon LaFell or Brandon Tate believer.
6. Tajae Sharpe, WR, Tennessee Titans: The rookie is already running with the ones, and the targets can't all go to Delanie Walker. Yes, the Titans will run, but not on every play. There's not a ton of competition and Sharpe impresses every time he is on the field.
7. Robert Griffin III, QB, Cleveland Browns: OK, you know about him, but you probably haven't considered him. He's 25th among QBs in ADP, but he should be on your radar late in drafts. He's got a cannon for an arm, he's fast as hell, has a smart, offense-minded coach, a bad defense and a load of wide receivers. RG III looked good in Week 2 of the preseason and he certainly has the weapons around him to be a fantasy starter this season.
8. Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans: With Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller, among others, around, there's definite competition for playing time next to DeAndre Hopkins, but the speedy Fuller is making a strong case so far this preseason.
9. Malcolm Mitchell, WR, New England Patriots: Anyone who gets on the field with Tom Brady is a candidate to have value, and though Mitchell is banged up now, they like him a lot in Foxborough. Don't be surprised if he carves out a Brandon LaFell-in-2014 sort of role with the team.
10. Tyrell Williams, WR, San Diego Chargers: As much as I love Keenan Allen and Travis Benjamin, Williams is currently No. 3 on a team that will have a good offense and has two players ahead of him who are coming off injury or are currently banged up.
Bonus name: Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings: More for deeper leagues and/or keeper leagues, because you know I am a Diggs guy and ultimately, Minnesota is a run-first team and Treadwell will obviously be a part of what they want to do in the passing game. But a guy to have in the back of your mind is Thielen, who has done everything right this preseason.


List 6: 10 RBs going in the 10th round or later that I like, perESPN.com ADP

1. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: See List 1. That's a man, son. A MAN.
2. Chris Ivory, Jacksonville Jaguars: The Jags back you want. He's going to be the goal-line back on one of the league's better offenses.
3. Jay Ajayi, Miami Dolphins: Do you think Arian Foster plays all 16 games? Yeah, me neither.
4. Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns: Better than you think, and though Duke Johnson Jr. will be involved, Crowell will be the thumper for Hue Jackson, whose teams have always run well in every stop he has made.
5. Paul Perkins, New York Giants: See List 1.
6. DeAndre Washington,Oakland Raiders: The hate might have gone too far on Latavius Murray, but it doesn't mean everything is perfect, either.
7. Alfred Morris, Dallas Cowboys: A must-own for any Ezekiel Elliott owner, Morris is one hammy injury away from being a top-five fantasy running back.
8. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens: Yes, there's competition with Terrance West and Kenneth Dixon (both of whom I like) and yes, Forsett is 31 and coming off an injury, but ... he's going in the 12th round! He's a starting RB on a good offense who is not far removed from being a very strong fantasy RB.
9. Zach Zenner, Detroit Lions: I'm high on the whole Lions offense and he has a good shot to be their goal-line back.
10. Christine Michael, Seattle Seahawks: See List 5. What can I say? I assume you skim some of this stuff. If you need another name, give me Devontae Booker.


List 7: 10 more of the best fantasy team names (that I can print)

Donald Trump's campaign slogan was a popular source of inspiration. Many people submitted "Make Fantasy Great Again." Others went the player route, as I saw "Make America Brate again," "Make America Gronk again" and my personal favorite, "Make Amari-Carr Great Again."
Also, many folks use references to the show "The League," which is great, it was a hilarious show. But just know everyone uses it.

1. Fat Bottomed Gurleys -- Todd Kaufman on Facebook
2. Gronkemon Go -- Eric Johnson on Facebook
3. Turn your Woodhead and Goff -- Nsuter9 on FantasyLife App
4. The Should've Starteds -- Steve Slocomb on Facebook
5. Zeke and Destroy -- many
6. You ignorant punt -- @dezpicabled on Twitter
7. Tunsil Hockey -- @devin_quinlan
8. Dak that pass up -- Dave Smads on Facebook
9. Hit 'em in the Hein! -- @siriusjay among many
10. The Hurns Betrayal -- Scott Clark on Facebook. #06010


List 8: 10 interesting stats that are written in a totally gimmicky, by-the-numbers sort of way just to amuse myself

1-- The number of running backs who have at least 1,000 yards from scrimmage and at least eight touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. His name? Lamar Miller. Honestly, I sandbagged those thresholds. Miller has totaled at least 1,200 yards and nine touchdowns in each of the past two seasons. As long as we are on the topic of Miller: Only one other back has scored at least nine times in each of the past two seasons (Jeremy Hill) and only two others have totaled 1,200 yards from scrimmage in each of the past two years (Matt Forte and Frank Gore).
2 -- The number of players from 2001 to 2014 who received at least 145 targets in a season and still finished with fewer than 1,000 receiving yards. In 2015,Michael Crabtree did it.
3 -- Number of consecutive seasons Russell Wilson has ranked as a top-10 fantasy quarterback, giving him the second-longest active streak in the league ... after Drew Brees' 12 straight.
4 -- Zach Miller's rank among tight ends in yards per catch last season, trailing only Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen and Gary Barnidge.
5 -- The number of quarterbacks (Carson Palmer, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, Russell Wilson and Drew Brees) who averaged more yards per dropback than Kirk Cousins last season.
6 -- Number of tight ends who finished inside the top 50 flex players (RB/WR/TE) in fantasy points last season. The standard 10-team league requires 20 starting RBs, 20 starting WRs and 10 starting flex players. It's not insane, if your draft board leads you there, to consider drafting two of the premier tight ends and using one as your flex option.7 -- The number of running backs who had 10 or more total touchdowns last season. We saw an average of 10.6 running backs do so during the previous 10 seasons.
8 -- Since 2011, the number of receivers with more total fantasy points than Jordy Nelson, and Nelson has missed 20 games in that span.
9 -- Number of tight ends who have more receiving yards than Coby Fleenersince he entered the league in 2012. For the record, only seven of those nine have more touchdowns.
10 -- Percentage of Danny Woodhead's carries that came in goal-to-go situations (OK, so it was 9.8 percent, but whatevs, that rounds up to 10 percent). Devonta Freeman led the league in total goal-to-go rushes (but only 8.7 percent of his carries). And though Jeremy Hill is thought of as a goal-line specialist, only 7.6 percent of his carries came in those situations.

List 9: 10 players who appear on my roster the most from all the mock drafts I have done so far

1. Brandin Cooks
2. C.J. Anderson
3. Lamar Miller
4. Donte Moncrief
5. Tom Brady
6. DeVante Parker
7. Frank Gore
8. Zach Ertz
9. Zach Miller
10. Handcuff to whomever my No. 1 running back is


List 10: 10 more team names

1. Wentz, Twice, Fee Times a Mady (complete with Eddie Murphy as Buckwheat avatar) -- @deadpanmoney
2. Professor No Fumbledore -- @twotakejake
3. Breakin' 2: Leonte Carroo -- @panpipeninja

4. Mr. Steal Your Gurley -- @chipj5
5. Gronkodile Dundee -- @OMGitsOFS
6. Wentzylvania -- @worbyrob
7. The Steve Smithsonian Institution -- @oldskoolcoach
8. Welcome Back, Cooter -- twindaddy55 on FantasyLife app
9. Shoulda listened to Matthew Berry -- Erik n Abby Guttormston on Facebook
10. Don't take advice from Matthew Berry -- Nick Spindola on Facebook
 

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Young wide receivers with serious fantasy breakout potential

Eric Karabell
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER

Wide receivers have finally infiltrated the first round of fantasy drafts, but one has to be careful in choosing too many players from the position in drafts. After all, receivers generally tend to be more consistent and safer than running backs and with less risk of injury, but you don’t need more than six of them in a standard ESPN league. You might not even need six if you choose several reliable players early on. There’s a risk of seeing so many attractive statistical options that you load up and neglect other spots.
Opportunity is the big key for NFL wide receivers, since most possess the talent to aid their teams and fantasy owners should they get the chance to play. As with running backs, second- and third-year players tend to show up the most in the breakout blog entries, for the talent is there, but sometimes rookies are simply too overwhelmed. Sometimes the NFL teams don’t even realize what they’ve got. Regardless, here’s what we’ve got for breakout wide receivers, withquarterbacks and running backs completed. Remember, no rookies.


Potential top-five breakouts

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yeah, he’s already produced numbers, as have the other fellows in this section, but the header reads “top-five” and I think in each case it could happen. And none of these guys were even top-10 receivers last year, by the way. Evans scored 12 times as a rookie and only three times last year. He should settle into the 8-9 scoring range.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo Bills: His second year might not appear better than the first, but it was. He just missed three-plus games. Watkins is efficient and makes plenty of big plays. He’s the only one in this tier who averaged at least 17 yards per catch. I like Tyrod Taylor, and here’s his top weapon.
Amari Cooper, Oakland Raiders: He had a solid rookie season, and we should expect he’ll lead his team in targets this time around. Ninety catches and 1,300 receiving yards are definitely in play.
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans Saints: I think he’s actually the least likely in this class to take that next big step, but he’s really good right now, like the others a safe WR2 at worst.
Potential top-20 breakouts
Donte Moncrief, Indianapolis Colts: We’re ranking him as a safe WR3, but I can definitely see a scenario in which Moncrief and teammate T.Y. Hiltonproduce similar numbers. Plus, when Andrew Luck gets near the goal line, the taller Moncrief should be the superior target.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: The foot injury that ruined much of his rookie season is healed, and it’s tough to not notice the fact he averaged 20 or more yards per catch in five of the final six weeks. Don’t worry, Parker andJarvis Landry can coexist.
Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals: Year 5 for the Notre Dame product and it’s a big one, since he’s mostly underachieved so far. Some of that can be blamed on Larry Fitzgerald hogging all the targets, and if you believe Fitz is just about done, invest in Floyd.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions: As with Indy, I simply see a smaller gap in production for the starting wide receivers. Golden Tate is a nice player, but Jones has the size to return to double-digit touchdowns, as he achieved in 2013. What a great opportunity this is for him.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears: He probably belongs in the next section, since he hasn’t played in an NFL game yet and Alshon Jeffery is the main target, but Jeffery battled injuries last season. A top-10 overall pick in the 2015 draft, White has extensive skills.
Deeper breakouts
Travis Benjamin, San Diego Chargers: The go-to line here is that if Benjamin can finish as a top-30 fantasy wide receiver in standard formats with the sad quarterbacks he had in Cleveland, imagine what happens with Philip Rivers. OK, I buy that. Could be 90 catches here.
Kamar Aiken, Baltimore Ravens: In retrospect, it’s a bit tough to see how he can top last year’s numbers, but the rest of the receivers are hurt or bad, andJoe Flacco is healthy. So perhaps he can offer a bit more statistically.


Sammie Coates, Pittsburgh Steelers: Markus Wheaton might be the starter with Martavis Bryantout for the season, but Coates, who caught one pass last season, brings higher upside.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks: It wasn’t just Doug Baldwin in the second half of last season. Lockett had two multi-touchdown efforts, and he could out-target Baldwin this year.
Devin Funchess, Carolina Panthers: Imposing physical specimen who should at least double his rookie numbers, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he overtook Kelvin Benjamin in several key fantasy categories.
Phillip Dorsett, Colts: The No. 3 guy after Hilton and Moncrief would obviously become coveted should one of them get hurt, but with so many three-wide formations, he should be occasionally relevant anyway.
Chris Hogan, New England Patriots: Remember when Bill Belichick grabbed Wes Welker from a division foe and there was instant emergence? Hogan wasn’t used much in Buffalo, but he likely starts here. Plus, it’s Tom Brady.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Philadelphia Eagles: They traded for him, so one would think they’ll use him and see what they’ve got. The size is intriguing, but the Titans wanted no part of him. I’d take DGB over Nelson Agholor at this point.

Bruce Ellington, San Francisco 49ers: This likely slot guy sure is quick, but there’s not a ton of upside.
 

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[h=1]Ranking the NFL's best monsterbacks[/h]Matt BowenESPN Staff Writer

ESPN INSIDER


During the first series of the Arizona Cardinals' Week 1 matchup with the New Orleans Saints last season, Tyrann Mathieu played at the nickel back position on first down versus a bunch formation. On second down, Mathieu rolled to the deep middle of the field -- as a true free safety -- for a play. Third down? Mathieu aligned in the box, right off the ball, as a run-stopper. That drill continued throughout the game -- and the season, really -- until Mathieu went down with a knee injury.

This guy isn't a safety, or a corner, or a nickel, or a even a dime linebacker. Mathieu is a monsterback, the new hybrid player in the NFL. Play the pass. Play the run. Blitz. Win matchups in space. Find the ball. Finish. Tackle. These cats are physical, fast and play-making chess pieces in the game plan. And every team is looking for one.
Mathieu is the top monsterback in today's game, but who else makes the cut? And which defensive rookies are on deck, the future studs with the size, speed and matchup ability? Let's rank the top monsterbacks in both categories.


[h=2]Top veterans[/h]1. Tyrann Mathieu, Arizona Cardinals: Cover a top receiver? Check. Drop down to blitz? Yep. Show the range to play over the top of the defense? You got it. Mathieu's versatility is off the charts. And his play-making skills are ridiculous. Always around the ball, Mathieu is a coach's dream.
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2. Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers: Kuechly is today's version of Brian Urlacher. A linebacker with speed, physicality and the natural instincts to find the ball. He's a tackling machine with the immediate burst to shut the door on balls thrown inside of the numbers.
3. Jamie Collins, New England Patriots: Collins is a creative weapon in the Patriots' system. A game plan nightmare for opposing offenses. He can play in box, rush the quarterback or match up in space. And he can run, too. For how big his is (6-3, 250), this is really freakish stuff.
4. Kam Chancellor, Seattle Seahawks: At 6-foot-3, 232 pounds, Chancellor is a thumper at the point of attack with a 6-foot-3, 232 pound frame. But he also showcases the skill set to match up to tight ends, roll to the deep middle of the field and close -- with speed -- on the ball. That's a nasty combination. He's a force in the Seahawks' Cover 3 scheme. And when he tackles, ball carriers are going to feel it
5. Mark Barron, Los Angeles Rams: With the footwork of a defensive back, Barron can get a jump on the ball as an underneath defender. But this guy plays a ton of roles in L.A. The former safety can blitz, play the weak side linebacker position and create chaos as a dime back. He's a joker in defensive coordinator Gregg Williams' exotic scheme.


[h=2]Top rookies[/h]1. Myles Jack, Jacksonville Jaguars: Turn on Jack's college tape and you might think this guy was a safety -- or even a nickel back. He's got it all: speed, change of direction ability and pure athleticism. Knee concerns forced Jack to slide on draft day, but when healthy, he can play anywhere in a defensive sub-package. Unique talent.
2. Su'a Cravens, Washington Redskins: Look for Cravens to become the hybrid linebacker/dime back in the Redskins' defense this season. He has enough size (6-foot-1, 226 pounds) to stop the run and enough athletic ability to close on the ball in space. Cravens is natural football player. Coaches will love this dude.
3. Darron Lee, New York Jets: With 4.47 speed, Lee will generate havoc in the Jets' pressure-happy scheme. Drafted on potential, with a frame that will bulk up, he has the matchup ability to run with receivers down the field. You don't see that often.
4. Karl Joseph, Oakland Raiders: A missile to the ball -- he forced eight fumbles at West Virginia -- Joseph combines speed and toughness. He can can hit. I mean, he lights people up. Drop him underneath on third downs and let him hunt.
5. Keanu Neal, Atlanta Falcons: A safety with size (6-foot, 211 pounds), closing speed and the toughness to get dirty in the box, Neal is the Falcons' version of Chancellor. When he recovers from a minor preseason knee injury, he'll be an absolutely nightmare for any running game, and be on receivers' minds as they come across the middle.
 

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[h=1]Who are the 2016 versions of these 2015 fantasy studs?[/h]Mike Clay
ESPN INSIDER


It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
"Who is this year's ... <enter breakout="" from="" last="" player="" season="" style="box-sizing: border-box;">?"</enter>
It's rarely a simple question to answer if only because no two situations are exactly alike. Of course, there are comparable players in similar situations. And if the people want comparisons, comparisons I shall deliver.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2015's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar pedigree as they enter 2016. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
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Note that this is not my way of projecting that these players will break out this season. Again, it's simply the players who are in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last year.

[h=2]This year's Devonta Freeman: T.J. Yeldon[/h]Following Freeman's underwhelming rookie campaign, the Falcons selectedTevin Coleman in the third round of the 2015 draft and eventually named him the team's Week 1 starter. This seemingly left Freeman without a clear path to touches, but it didn't take him long to plant his flag as the team's feature back. Freeman went on to rack up 1,634 yards and 14 touchdowns on 338 touches and was fantasy's top-scoring running back.
Enter Yeldon, who faces a similar situation in 2016. The 22-year-old was scooped up in the second round of last year's draft and quickly took the keys as Jacksonville's lead back. Although he struggled in the touchdown department (three total), Yeldon was productive. He averaged a solid 4.1 yards per carry and quietly hauled in 36 passes in 12 games. Extrapolated over 16 games, Yeldon's 48 receptions would've ranked 10th at the position.
The signing of Chris Ivory would seemingly limit Yeldon's volume and scoring opportunity, but these were the same concerns we had with Freeman one year ago. And the Jaguars ranked second in running back carries from the opponent's 1-yard-line last season. If the intriguing sophomore back can separate himself from Ivory, the sky is the limit for a 2016 breakout. As was the case with Freeman last year, Yeldon is a strong mid-round target in fantasy drafts.
Other candidates include: Melvin Gordon, Ameer Abdullah and Duke Johnson Jr.

[h=2]This year's Allen Robinson: DeVante Parker[/h]Robinson entered his second NFL season as a talented 21-year-old with a clear path to a large target share in what was expected to be a poor pass offense. Those who took a chance on him in the early-to-mid rounds were rewarded handsomely when he posted 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns on 80 receptions.
Parker is in a similar situation. The 2015 first-round pick is expected to play an every-down role along with possession receiver Jarvis Landry in Adam Gase's offense. Parker and Robinson are both 6-foot-3 and weigh right around 215 pounds. Players with large frames generally rack up plenty of work near the end zone. As was Robinson last year, Parker is a popular breakout target in fantasy drafts, so he won't come cheap, but Parker is on a short list of players with WR1 upside.
Other candidates include: Donte Moncrief and Amari Cooper.

[h=2]This year's Blake Bortles: Jameis Winston[/h]The guy on the other end of those 14 Robinson touchdowns last season was another 2015 fantasy breakout. Bortles, who was selected third overall in the 2014 draft, struggled as a rookie and was no more than a late-round flier in last season's fantasy drafts. He went on to throw 35 touchdowns and added 310 yards and two scores with his legs.


Winston, of course, was the first overall pick in last year's NFL draft and became the third rookie in NFL history to throw for 4,000 yards. Although he finished 13th at the position in fantasy points, he managed only three top-10 fantasy weeks, which ranked 20th. In the same boat as Bortles, Winston struggled badly with accuracy as a rookie, missing his target on an NFL-low 23 percent of this attempts.
With a full year under his belt and having dropped weight during the offseason, Winston certainly makes sense as a player who could take a major leap forward as a sophomore. Tampa Bay's suspect defense will allow Winston plenty of garbage time opportunities -- an area where Bortles thrived last season.
Other candidates include: Marcus Mariota and Brock Osweiler.

[h=2]This year's Jordan Reed: Eric Ebron[/h]Reed was considered a high-end pass-catching prospect when selected in the third round of the 2013 draft. Injuries limited his impact (not to mention his 2015 ADP) prior to a major breakthrough in his third professional campaign. Reed caught 87 passes for 952 yards and 11 scores in 14 games.
Similarly, Ebron has missed five games during his first two seasons and is currently dealing with an ankle injury. The 2014 10th overall pick is positioned for a generous target share with Calvin Johnson no longer in the mix in Detroit. The 6-foot-4, 255-pound Ebron quietly posted a 47-537-5 line in 14 games last season, which allowed him a 13th-place finish at the position.
The 23-year-old has all the pedigree you could possibly want from a potential breakout player and he's currently available in the double-digit rounds. Ebron's hands remain a work in progress, but his athleticism and offensive involvement may be enough to launch him into fantasy stardom.
Other candidates include: Coby Fleener and Austin Seferian-Jenkins.


[h=2]This year's David Johnson: Derrick Henry[/h]Johnson was the breakout rookie running back of 2015, so it might seem odd not to go with Ezekiel Elliott in this spot. The problem is that Elliott is currently going in the first round of fantasy drafts, whereas Johnson was available in the late rounds of 2015 drafts. Henry can be had in the double-digit rounds because, like Johnson, he enters his rookie campaign stuck behind a veteran. In Johnson's case, it was Chris Johnson. For Henry, it's DeMarco Murray.
Murray is fully expected to start 2016 as Tennessee's top back, but I really like what I've seen from Henry this preseason. His stats are impressive (15 carries, 105 yards, 7.0 YPC, one touchdown), but his tape is even better. We already know he's huge (6-foot-3, 247 pounds), but Henry is fast (4.54 40-yard dash) and explosive for his size. He runs over defenders and consistently produces after contact. And Henry hasn't even been unleashed as a receiver -- something he did very little at Alabama, but is more than capable of providing.
Henry will be a candidate for 9-to-11 touches right out of the gate in Tennessee's run-heavy scheme, and will certainly push for more if he outperforms Murray. The big man has the upside you want in your mid-round fantasy selections.
Other candidates include: DeAndre Washington, Devontae Booker, Paul Perkins, Jordan Howard and Kenneth Dixon.

[h=2]This year's Theo Riddick: Chris Thompson[/h]Riddick, a 2013 sixth-round pick, entered the 2015 season as a complementary passing-down specialist in Detroit. With Joique Bell and Ameer Abdullah in the mix, Riddick didn't have much fantasy appeal except as a late-round flier in PPR formats. He went on to catch 80 passes for 697 yards and three touchdowns.
Thompson hauled in 35 passes last season and the 2013 fifth-round pick is positioned to play a significant role this season. Matt Jones is ticketed for lead back duties, but was ineffective as a rookie and is currently dealing with a shoulder injury. If Washington's offense leans heavily on its strength (the passing game), Thompson will be on the field a lot. The scat back is going undrafted in most leagues, but should be on your radar in the late rounds, especially in PPR formats.
Other candidates include: Lance Dunbar, Javorius Allen and James White.

[h=2]This year's Michael Crabtree: Mike Wallace[/h]After disappointing during his six seasons in San Francisco, the seemingly finished Crabtree rejuvenated his career in Oakland last season. The 28-year-old went from late-round lottery ticket to Derek Carr's top target. He hauled in 85 passes for 922 yards and nine touchdowns en route to finishing 20th among wide receivers in fantasy points.


Wallace, who turned 30 earlier this month, is in position to start in Baltimore after underwhelming stints in Miami and Minnesota. Wallace finished 75th among receivers in fantasy points last year, but how soon we forget that he was top 30 each of the previous six seasons, including 18th in 2014. Wallace is not a particularly efficient receiver, but he's a field stretcher who will benefit from Joe Flacco's big arm.
It's not clear how Baltimore's wide receiver depth chart will shake out, but Wallace appears likely to be an every-down contributor out of the gate. Wallace is a boom/bust pick, but he won't cost you more than a late-round selection.
Other candidates include: Mohamed Sanu and Terrelle Pryor.

[h=2]This year's Stefon Diggs: Tajae Sharpe[/h]Diggs was selected in the fifth round of last season's draft to help boost Minnesota's depth at the wide receiver position. Instead, both Charles Johnsonand Mike Wallace disappointed, which allowed Diggs to emerge into an every-down player by Week 4. Following an impressive 25-419-2 four-game line to start his career, the 21-year-old's production was limited down the stretch by Minnesota's run-heavy, low-volume scheme.
Sharpe, meanwhile, was a fifth-round pick this past April. Tennessee's poor receiver situation already has the 21-year-old in position to start oppositeRishard Matthews. The rookie stands 6-foot-2 and, although his combine wasn't particularly impressive, he managed to haul in 111 passes without recording a single drop at UMass last year.
Sharpe's standing as a starter, coupled with the possibility of a second-year Marcus Mariota breakout, means he should be on your radar in the later rounds. However, as was the case with Diggs, it's possible (if not likely) that Sharpe's statistical production will be limited severely by his team's low-volume, run-heavy approach. Sharpe is certainly a better dynasty stash than he is a season-long asset.
Other candidates include: Malcolm Mitchell, Rashard Higgins and Chris Moore.

[h=2]This year's Doug Baldwin: Marvin Jones[/h]Baldwin is a good football player who couldn't quite translate his play into fantasy points as a product of Seattle's conservative offense. At least that was the case until he hauled in 14 touchdowns on 78 receptions during a breakthrough 2015 season. Baldwin is a lock for touchdown regression this year, but he obviously took a giant step forward last season.
Jones is a bit different than Baldwin in that he changed teams this past season, but he's comparable in the sense that he has played at a high level but has had his statistical production limited by factors out of his control. In Baldwin's situation, it was the aforementioned offensive scheme. In Jones' case, it was a run-first offense coupled with the presence of workhorse A.J. Green.
Now with Detroit, Jones is locked in as the team's No. 1 receiver. The likes ofGolden Tate, Ebron, Riddick and Anquan Boldin offer competition for targets, but Jones has the benefit of working as the primary deep threat in a pass-first offense. Jones, who already has a somewhat fluky 10-touchdown season under his belt, is well worth your attention in the middle rounds of your draft.


Other candidates include: Chris Hogan, Torrey Smith and Travis Benjamin.

[h=2]This year's Gary Barnidge: Virgil Green[/h]Barnidge entered 2015 with 44 receptions and three touchdowns during six seasons in the league. The departure of Jordan Cameron forced him into a starting role in Cleveland and he certainly didn't disappoint. Barnidge posted 79 receptions, 1,043 yards and nine touchdowns en route to finishing second at the position in fantasy points.
Similarly, Green is expected to enter the starting lineup in Denver after totaling 35 receptions and two scores during his first five NFL seasons. Green is 28 years old and a terrific athlete who simply hasn't had an opportunity to work as more than a blocker ... until now.
The veteran will face competition for work from Jeff Heuerman and Garrett Graham, but Green is currently positioned as the team's starter. Denver's quarterback woes and run-first approach are legitimate roadblocks to Green's fantasy success, but we know Barnidge was certainly able to overcome the former. Green is going undrafted in most formats, but should be on your radar if you're eyeing a lottery ticket at the position.
Other candidates include: Vance McDonald.
[h=2]Others to consider:[/h]
 

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Which WRs are being taken too high, too low in fantasy drafts?

KC Joyner
ESPN Insider


Sixteen wide receivers last season posted 150 or more points in standard leagues and 24 tallied 200 or more points in point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
That glut of upper-tier performers led the wide receiver position to tally its highest position point total (10,768) since at least 2001. Wideouts also accounted for 28.3 percent of all fantasy points, a level that was tied with the 2014 wide receiver corps for the highest mark in that category since at least 2001.

Even with this incredible point volume, there are still more than a few wide receivers who are overvalued or undervalued in fantasy football. This third in a four-part series reviewing overvalued and undervalued fantasy prospects looks to highlight the wide receivers being taken too early or too late. This group starts with an elite long-pass threat who may be only a small workload increase away from contending for WR1 status.
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Undervalued

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John Brown, Arizona Cardinals

Current ESPN live draft ADP: 81.4
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 30
Joyner positional rank: No. 11

Brown is an elite downfield threat in a Bruce Arians offense that stretches the field as often and as effectively as any in the league.

This combination helped Brown post superb numbers last season. His 13.1 yards per attempt (YPA) on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) ranked ninth among the 29 wide receivers with 50 or more vertical targets. Brown also was one of only 20 wide receivers to tally 25 or more stretch vertical targets (passes traveling 20 or more yards downfield), and his 16.6 YPA on those attempts placed seventh among this group. (Note: the metrics listed here and below include passing penalty plays such as pass interference and illegal contact.)

Brown's track record says he can defeat any competition level. Last year he racked up a 10.6 YPA mark against rated cornerbacks (defined as defenders with 32 or more targets directed at them), a total that was tied for sixth best in that category.
Brown ranked 23rd in wide receiver fantasy points last year despite having only 65 receptions. If he can move that catch total into the 70 to 80 range, he should hit the border of WR1 production. That makes him a great value pick with his current No. 30 average draft position.
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DeSean Jackson, Washington Redskins
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 81.8
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 31
Joyner positional rank: No. 21

Kirk Cousins had 21 short-pass touchdowns (scoring plays on passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield) and eight vertical touchdowns last season. This minus-13 variance between vertical and short-pass throws was the second highest in the league, behind only Tom Brady's minus-16.

This makes upgrading its vertical pass numbers one of the highest priorities for Washington. Jackson fits that bill perfectly, as in Weeks 11-17 last year, onlySammy Watkins had a higher vertical fantasy points per game total (12.3) than Jackson's 10.8-point mark.

Jackson does have some downside risk in that he isn't the most durable wideout and has tallied a triple-digit target volume only twice in the past six seasons. Having noted this, the long-pass upside he brings to an offense that is going to feature that element much more often makes his reward worth the risk and makes him an excellent upside mid-round selection.

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Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 89.3
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 35
Joyner positional rank: No. 21

There may not be a receiver who gets less respect than Hurns. Last year his 14.0 vertical YPA ranked tied for fifth among wideouts with 50 or more vertical targets. The receiver Hurns was tied with? Julio Jones. The receiver right behind him on that list? Odell Beckham Jr. (13.2). Hurns also ranked tied for fifth with Sammy Watkins in vertical touchdowns (eight).
Hurns should have close to equal opportunity to post these types of vertical numbers, as he plays on a Jaguars offense that ranked fourth in vertical pass attempts last season (234).

This may not lead to Hurns equaling his No. 14 ranking in wide receiver fantasy points from last year, but the odds are good his drop-off will place him closer to the border of WR2/WR3 range than to his current No. 35 ADP rank.



Overvalued


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Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Current ESPN live draft ADP: 20.2
Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 8
Joyner positional rank: No. 17

Nelson's No. 8 rank in ADP indicates fantasy owners believe he will come close to his 2014 performance that saw Nelson post 221 fantasy points, a total that ranked tied for third best among wide receivers.

Before assuming that, it's worth noting that in the previous two campaigns, Nelson had posted 173 and 114 fantasy points, respectively. To be fair, Nelson did rack up 210 fantasy points in 2011, but all of this highlights his inconsistent history.
Inconsistency is far from his only negative. Nelson has tallied a triple-digit target volume only twice in his career. He is 31 years old and coming off of a knee injury. Nelson reportedly has battled tendonitis in this knee and has indicated there might be some concerns about conditioning. He won't get much help from the schedule, as according to my schedule-ranking system, Nelson has the ninth-toughest set of matchups among wide receivers.

Given all of these negatives and the aforementioned depth of upper-tier quality wide receivers in the 2016 campaign, it seems ill advised to have WR1-caliber faith in Nelson.


i
Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
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Current ESPN live draft ADP: 35.5
</article>Current ESPN live draft positional rank: No. 15
Joyner positional rank: No. 29

Philip Rivers set career highs in attempts, completions and passing yards last season. Allen was a big beneficiary of this aerial largesse, as it helped him rack up three games with 12 or more receptions and another game with nine catches despite playing in only eight games.

All of this would bode well for Allen to have a tremendous 2016 campaign, but San Diego's offseason moves all point away from this pass-heavy approach. New offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt is going to lean much more on two-tight-end and two-running-back sets in an effort to get Melvin Gordon back to the form he showed in Wisconsin's power-rushing offense.
This is very likely to reduce the Chargers' pass volume from the 671-attempt level it had last year to somewhere in the 550 to 600 range. That would be troubling enough, but it's even more of an issue for Allen because most of the throws that are going to be eliminated are of the short-pass variety. Short passes accounted for 68.9 percent of Allen's targets in 2015, a pace that ranked 12th highest among wide receivers.

This means rather than see a repeat of Allen's career-high 11.0 targets per game from last season, he is likely to return to the pace that Allen posted in the 2013 and 2014 seasons (seven to eight targets per game). A target tempo in that range puts a dink-and-dunk receiver like Allen much closer to the borderline of WR3/WR4 than it does in his current mid-WR2 ADP value.
 
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