2 Monday w/analysis

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Both plays are for 2 units

CINCINNATI +129 over Los Angeles

12:35 PM EST. Note the early start here. After scoring 21 runs in their first two games of this series, Cinci was shut out yesterday but don’t expect their bats to be silent this afternoon against Scott Kazmir. Everything from Kazmir’s durability to his skills is questionable. The oft-injured Kazmir hasn’t logged more than 190 innings since 2007, so there is sizable risk here that he’s tiring and his underlying stats support that. Kazmir walked three batters in his last start while whiffing just one and now has a BB/K split of 10/19 over his past five starts covering 28 innings. The two runs he allowed to Philly in that last start was nothing but good fortune, as many balls were hit hard, Kazmir had to deal with two baserunners or more in every inning and barely made it through five. His 40%/24%/36% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile is a weak one that does not figure to play well at Great American Ballpark. It's amazing how helpful or hurtful the hit% and strand% pendulum can be. While Kazmir’s skills continue to erode, he is often saved by a friendly strand rate. Because we can't bet on that happening every start, neither can we expect him to thrive. What we have here is a rising xERA trend. Kazmir’s xERA over his last five starts of 5.52 (7.08 in his last start) is the second worst in the majors. Let’s not dismiss that Kazmir had a huge 2H skill erosion last year too. The recommendation is to stay away from Kazmir when he’s favored because he’ll very likely struggle to return a profit.

The Dodgers are favored here because why? It may surprise you to learn that the Reds have the second best record in the NL since the All-Star break and Homer Bailey is looking better with each passing start. Last year, Bailey started just two games before Tommy John struck in May. He returned just four games ago so that would make it nearly two full years without regular action so yeah, he’s well rested. In his four starts, Bailey has a sweet BB/K split of 6/27 over 20 innings. His throwing at 94 MPH and those 27 K’s has the support of a smart 12% swing and miss rate. The sample size is small but the numbers are not, as Bailey’s xERA of 2.85 is outstanding. He’s likely to get stretched out a little bit more here against the beatable Dodgers. Bailey threw six full innings two starts ago and five full in last start. Over those 11 innings, he struck out 17 and walked just two. Since returning, the Reds have won three of his four starts. Again, the Dodgers are favored here because why? Huge overlay.

N.Y. Yankees -114 over SEATTLE

10:10 PM EST. Michael Pineda is 6-10 with a 4.89 ERA after 24 starts. He had a 5-0 lead against Toronto in his last start after five innings when the rains came and he did not return. Incidentally, the Yanks lost that game and we frustratingly ripped up our tickets. Just like some pitchers are very lucky, others can get unlucky too for an extended period of time and that applies to Pineda. That his ERA is one of the highest among AL starters with 100 innings or more is ludicrous. Pineda continues to be saddled with a trifecta of bad luck with a high 36% hit rate, low 65% strand rate and high 18% hr/f rate. Pineda has filthy stuff. He has 154 K’s in 136 frames with just 38 walks issued. He also has a 15% swing and miss rate, which is in Clayton Kershaw territory. Pineda also owns better skills with runners on base than any starter in MLB not named Kershaw with 10 K’s/9, 0.8 BB’s/9 and 45% groundballs. Again, he has been victimized by a crazy trifecta of terrible luck in that situation with a 38% hit rate and 16% (!) strand rate. With a 3.23 xERA, Pineda is the premier buy-low starting pitcher in baseball. His surface stats (4.89 ERA) keep him grossly undervalued and once we’ll attempt to exploit that.

Cody Martin evenly priced against Pineda is silly. Martin’s ERA is 3.14 but that means jack because he has a mere 14 innings pitched this season. This 26-year-old career minor-leaguer was called up on June 3. Prior to his call-up, Martin was hit hard in the minors, with batters hitting .325 off him. That resulted in a 7.92 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. Martin is a two-pitch pitcher with a slider and fastball. He’s petrified to throw a curve or change because he’s gets slaughtered whenever he does. Therefore, if the slider is missing the plate, big trouble looms. If he’s throwing strikes with the slider, big trouble still looms because Martin’s swing and miss rate is a pitiful 4%. As a reliever, Martin was not striking out guys. He’s made one start over six appearances and has 7 K’s over his 14 innings. In that one start, his WHIP was 2.08. Martin has pitched parts of the last five seasons at Triple-A. He has proven just about all he can there (which isn’t much) and right now he’s just holding the fort until Seattle’s decimated rotation gets healthy. Martin is starting here only because the M’s options are very limited. This is NOT and even pitching matchup and therefore the price on the Yanks (and Pineda) is way off. Invest.
 

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