Looking for Reasonable Reasons to Take Twins 8-25-16

Jetsa · Aug 25, 2016

Would you guys mind helping me with some reasoning of why the Twins ML might be a play today against the Tigers? I just do not see it and do not want to miss something I shouldn't. Berrios for the Twins has been horrible...something like an 9.28 ERA. Has walked 18 and allowed 7 HR's in 32 innings. Norris has allowed 5 runs in his last 15 innings but thats good compared to Berrios' stats. Tigers are 17-7 in the first 2 games of this series. I understand trying to avoid the sweep, but what do the Twins have going other than home field which hasn't worked yet?

Appreciate you guys taking your time to reply.

GLTA

Jetsa · Aug 25, 2016

Streaks...Tigers have won 3 in a row, Twins lost 6 in a row. More favoring the Tigers. Tigers have scored 27 runs in those 3 wins. Twins have scored 13 in those 6 losses. Tigers hot, Twins not.

galaxyodds · Aug 25, 2016

Tiger is vying for playoff and Twin is on vacation cruise control. Tiger W3 and Twin L6...why buck the trend?

mn fats · Aug 25, 2016

If you think the Twins will score more runs than the Tigers, then you should bet on the Twins. No charge for this advice.

Jetsa · Aug 25, 2016

galaxyodds said:
Tiger is vying for playoff and Twin is on vacation cruise control. Tiger W3 and Twin L6...why buck the trend?

I am with you on the Tigers. I am just looking for any plausible reason why anyone would pick Twins Bro. Several are on Twins and I want to know what it is they may see going here.

Jetsa · Aug 25, 2016

I'm going to strongly consider taking Tigers O4.5 TT if thats what it comes out at. The opposing teams have score five runs or more in seven of the eight starts that Berrios has made this season. Tigers have scored 9, 8, and 10 in last 3 wins.

But the question is what do others see that would make them pick Twins to win?

varkeyboy · Aug 25, 2016

Tigers TT 5.5

ChugsMcGee · Aug 25, 2016

Just to try and play devil's advocate. Berrios has the tools to be good and has been great at lower levels. Haven't seen it yet as he walks to many guys. He could put "it" together at any time, I suppose. From the other end of the spectrum, Norris has given up fewer runs in recent appearances, but his metrics aren't significantly better than Berrios. Norris with a 4.69xFIP v. Berrios at 5.17...but both have only pitched ~30 innings this season which is a small sample.

I think this is about where you can get the line. If you can get Tigers less than -120, probably good deal. If the line creeps to +135 for Twins, you probably see a pushback at some point. Currently 85% of bets on Tigers by one site and line has moved a dime...but its very early yet.

blackchina · Aug 25, 2016

Sometimes don't over think it. Hot team with little juice like I posted. Do it

MoMoneyNoProblem · Aug 25, 2016

If only they were all this easy. I'd tell my boss to go shove it.

ChugsMcGee · Aug 25, 2016

Berrios just is not ready for the show. Can't be walking this many guys. Got plenty of time to find his way but appears to be a str8 fade for awhile longer.

Jetsa · Aug 25, 2016

Well the good news is I treated it as a PW play and went big ML but slacked off on the TT. Woulda shoulda type thing

galaxyodds · Aug 25, 2016

Jetsa said:
I am with you on the Tigers. I am just looking for any plausible reason why anyone would pick Twins Bro. Several are on Twins and I want to know what it is they may see going here.

They saw fools gold lol...@)

Looking for Reasonable Reasons to Take Twins 8-25-16

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