| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.08 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 42 | 0.00 | +5.84 |
| Season to Date | 191 | 270 | 0.00 | -39.76 |
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Both plays are for 2 units
Minnesota +217 over TORONTO
7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays charmed season may be coming to an end. Without going into detail, Toronto has some decent parts of course but they have been far more fortunate than good. Losing two of three to an Angels team that lost 14 of 16 coming into the series might just be the start of Toronto’s demise. Hell, the Jays even lost last night to Jered Weaver and his 82 MPH fastball and 5.72 ERA (6.18 xERA). The Jays scored twice on Weaver and it came on a bomb.
Now the Jays are feeling the heat. Prior to last night, Weaver’s swing and miss rate on the year was a measly 6%. Against Toronto last night, Weaver’s swing and miss rate was an elite 13%. We can assure you that Weaver wasn’t better last night than he’s been in previous starts. Toronto’s hitters are helping pitchers out. They are gripping the bat tighter and are swinging at stuff they shouldn’t be. They are also trying to go deep far too often instead of just making contact. Now another team comes into town with nothing to lose and wanting to make life miserable for a contender.
The Twins have made a host of changes to their roster all year and one of the benefactors was Pat Dean, who has both started and pitched in relief. Dean was a third-round pick in the 2010 draft due to his outstanding command and feel for pitching. Not much has changed over the years, as he continues to exhibit plus location, but he doesn’t throw with great velocity and he is an extreme pitch-to-contact guy. Dean’s fastball mostly sits in the 87-91 mph range, but he commands it well and moves it around the zone. He’ll mix in both a slider and curveball with the curve being the better of the two. His best offering is his deceptive change-up that he uses to neutralize right-handed batters. He’s spent his entire career in the starting rotation so this is where he is most comfortable. Dean has appeared in just 11 games this year with six of those coming as a starter. His elite groundball rate of 59% figures to play well in this park. In 47 overall innings, he has a decent BB/K split of 15/36 but a strong 67% first-pitch strike rate suggests his control should be better. Dude can throw strikes when he wants to. Over his last seven frames, Dean has walked none while striking out nine. Lastly, current Jays have three hits in 20 career AB’s against Dean for a combined BA of .150
The equation for Francisco Liriano’s success or failure is not a complicated one. If Liriano is throwing strikes, he can be difficult to hit. When he’s not throwing strikes, trouble looms. There isn’t a crystal ball in the world that can predict which Liriano will show up here but what we know for sure is that he’s not throwing strikes about 50% of the time, which makes him a HUGE risk in this price range. Liriano has 13 BB’s over his past 26 innings. He leads the majors with an astonishing 75 walks in 131 innings. His WHIP since becoming a Blue Jay is a troubling 1.77 and his xERA is 4.62. So yeah, Liriano and the Jays can obviously win this one but do you really want to lay better than 2-1 to find out? Toronto continues to be the most overpriced team in MLB
Oakland +185 over ST. LOUIS
8:15 PM EST. Ross Detwiler is not on our radar. We have nothing good to say about him whatsoever. Detwiler has been simply awful for two straight seasons and wouldn't even be sniffing the majors again this year if not for the rash of injuries to Oakland starters. He started three games for the A’s and Oakland is 1-2 in those starts after Detwiler threw an 8-inning, six-hit shutout against the Orioles of all teams. Detwiler subsequently got whacked by the South Side and the Rangers with the latter two being on the road in hitter’s parks. He thrived at home in his friendly pitcher’s park. Detwiler’s best asset is his groundball rate of 52% but this wager has absolutely nothing to do with backing Ross Detwiler.
What we have here is a rookie pitcher making his third career start priced like he’s Carlos Martinez. That cannot be. Luke Weaver surrendered nine hits in five innings in his last start in Philadelphia. He lasted only four innings in his first start at Wrigley. Weaver’s oppBA is .342 and his WHIP is 1.78. Indeed the sample size is small and Weaver does bring an outstanding minor league pedigree with him but so what. History is lined with hundreds and hundreds of starters with minor-league pedigree that could never make it at this level. There’s also some dispute among scouts if Weaver truly has a plus pitch. He’s not a big guy either at 6’2”, and a lithe 170 pounds. Pitching at this level is nothing like the minors. Contrary to public belief, Oakland is not an easy out. Only two teams in the majors have struck out fewer times than Oakland so this is a team that puts the ball in play and just missed sweeping the Indians. In fact, in that just completed three-game set against the Tribe, Oakland allowed just three runs total while scoring 14 on its own. There are times when the price dictates the play. Luke Weaver is not established enough, nor has he done anything to be priced in this range.
