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  1. #1 On The Hop's 2016 NCAA Football 
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    Rough year last year. Results can be found here: http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1027752

    For those of you that read my threads, nothing different this year. I'll do my best to provide write-ups or at least some rationale. One of my goals is to play fewer games with an increased unit size (insert your own dick joke here). That may not last as there are times I can't resist the action. If it is just an action play or a total degenerate play I will note that in my write-up.

    Best of luck to everyone this year.

    8/26/2016 (0-0, +0u)


    Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21 (-120), 1 unit:
    It would be easy to call this one a degenerate play but there are a few things I like here. First, Hawaii has all new coaches which means there is little to no film on their schemes. Second, I expect the Rainbow Warriors to be able to run the ball. Third, Cal lost a ton of players on both sides of the ball. While the Golden Bears are far more talented their defense won't be able to shut the Rainbow Warriors down completely. Combine that with what I expect to be a sloppy game due to the time change (I know they've been there a week but it's a massive difference), the environment and the fact that it has to feel like a vacation for both teams and I will gladly take 3 TD's.
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  2. #2  
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    Hop............nicely done .............BOL with all your action this season...........indy
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  3. #3  
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    Thanks indy....appreciate you stopping by and the kind words.

    9/1/2016 (1-0-0, +1u)

    Florida International Panthers +10 (-110), 1 unit:
    Florida International brings back a very experienced offense and should be able to move the ball against a mediocre Indiana defense. On the other side of the ball the Hoosiers have to replace the school's all time leading passer, top running back and center. Although the Panther defense should be mediocre at best, the IU offense should have just enough new bodies that they cannot run away with this one. Finally, last year's game was a 14 point Indiana victory but FIU led early in the fourth and had the ball inside the Hoosier 5 before a INT return for a TD made this a 14 point game. Rare for a B10 team to go visit a CUSA team and I think Florida International is up for the challenge.

    Minnesota Golden Gophers -12.5 (-110), 1 unit. Not a ton of analysis on this one. Quite simply I think Minnesota runs the ball at will against a porous Oregon State run defense. The Gophers have senior leadership and a settled coaching situation and firmly believe they can get back to a top tier bowl game again this season. They cannot afford a loss to an overmatched Beaver squad that is a few years away from contending in the P12.
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  4. #4  
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    Posting this one now. Obviously the record is not updated as the September 1 games are currently being played.

    9/2/2016 (1-0-0, +1u)

    Colorado Buffaloes -8 (-110), 1 unit:
    Colorado is a very experienced squad, returning 9 players on each side of the ball and they are much better than their record has shown with 8 conference losses by 7 or less in the last 2 years. The Buffaloes have bowl aspirations and they need this one with a difficult schedule ahead. Colorado State has a new defensive coordinator and loses their entire defensive line which is going to be challenging against the new up tempo passing game CU is going to throw at them. These are two teams moving in different directions and I expect Colorado to start their season on a high note.
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  5. #5  
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    Colorado looks good but it's not over yet so I'm not including it in my record.

    Side note: Like all of you I do this to win, but I also do it for fun. Therefore, I don't bet against my team, Wisconsin. That being said, if I did, I think LSU is a great play tomorrow. Badgers starting a new QB, have a new D Coordinator, are missing one of our best LB's (Edwards), have injuries all over the O Line and are facing their former D Coordinator, Aranda. This has blow out written all over it. I hope I'm wrong.

    9/3/2016 (1-2-0, -1.2u)


    Boston College Eagles +3 (-110):
    Boston College returns 15 starters from last year's disappointing team. Taking a closer look, they were breaking in a new coordinator on both sides of the ball and had 35 first time players see time. They also had 4 close losses. Combine that with an exceptional defense and I like the Eagles to be vastly improved this season. Georgia Tech will throw their option offense out there and Thomas will run it very well. But, if you give Adazzio a month or so to prepare for the option attack, I trust him to stop it. BC hasn't won a conference game in football or basketball in a year. I expect their absolute best here as they know they have a legitimate shot to snap that streak.

    Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +40 (-110):
    Michigan is going to win this game. There are a few things that make me think Hawaii can stay within the number. First, the whole world is talking about how great the Wolverines are going to be this year and while I do think they will be good, there is way too much hype. Second, I watched the Rainbow Warriors first game. Yes, they lost by 20 but the score differential was not that big. Hawaii kept turning the ball over and taking stupid penalties. Most teams have their largest improvement between games 1 and 2. If the Rainbow Warriors can do that and reduce the penalties and turnovers, they will have a good shot to stay within the number.

    Western Michigan Broncos +5 (-110):
    This is a strong, experienced Broncos squad with an experienced, dynamic offense. They battled Michigan State and Ohio State last year and while they lost, they were in both of those games for awhile. Their defense is inexperienced but I'm not sure that Northwestern has the firepower to take advantage of that inexperience. Northwestern was the worst offense in the B10 last year and that's saying something in a conference that is not exactly known for its dynamic offenses. In other words, I expect WMU to have enough firepower to stay in the game. Combine that with the strange 5 point spread and I'll grab the Broncos and won't be shocked if they pull the outright upset.

    Texas A&M Aggies -3 (-110):
    These are two good offenses, no doubt about that. I'm excited to see Trevor Knight in this offense with a very talented receiving corps in a new offense. Rosen is going to move the Bruins as well. The difference in this game is two things. First, the Aggies are more talented on defense. Second, A&M knows that this is a make or break year for Sumlin. A few people relatively close to the program have told me the kids love Sumlin and Chavis and really want them to stay. They know they can make a huge statement towards making that happen with a win over big name UCLA.

    Georgia Bulldogs -3 (-110): Here's what the Bulldogs have had in years past...talented offenses and high expectations. With Smart taking over as head coach I think we see a different Bulldogs team. This team is going to run, run and then run again. They're going to ask Lambert to manage the game and feed Chubb and the other backs. Expect the UGA defense to take a massive leap forward with Smart as head coach. The Tar Heels took a massive leap forward last year but upon closer inspection they beat no one. The gave Clemson a scare and lost to a Baylor team playing their 3rd QB. The D is improved but this team is not ready to win a grind it out game. Expect the Bulldogs to turn this one into a battle by controlling the clock and by forcing North Carolina's inexperienced QB to make difficult decisions.

    Texas Longhorns +3.5 (-110): The Longhorns get a chance to avenge last year's debacle with an experienced, athletic team. Look for Texas to run multiple QB's into the game and for a brand new offensive scheme to challenge Notre Dame's inexperienced defense. The Fighting Irish lose a lot on offense but still have more than enough firepower. However, Texas' defense is fast, tough and will play with a chip on their shoulder after last season's blowout. As the Longhorns try and re-establish themselves as a national powerhouse, winning this game would go a long, long way towards making that happen. They have enough athletes, they have the home crowd, they have the revenge factor and they're getting more than a FG.

    Alabama Crimson Tide/Clemson Tigers/Florida State Seminoles ML Parlay (+143): If Bama and Clemson win there's a good chance I try and hedge/middle this by taking Ole Miss and the points.
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  6. #6  
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    Forgot to note that all games above are 1 unit.
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    9/5/2016 (5-3-1, +1.7u)

    Ole Miss Rebels +6 (-110), .55u:
    Worked my way into a nice middle opportunity with the above parlay still pending so I'll take a shot.
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  8. #8  
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    Hop........may you collect on both............BOL with your action............indy
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  9. #9  
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    Thanks indy....was looking good for awhile, then FSU exploded!!

    9/9/2016 (6-4-1, +2.58u)

    Florida International Panthers +11 (-110), 1 unit:
    Tough to go back to FIU after they lost on opening night. However, they were within the number most of the game until Indiana ran away from them in the fourth quarter. Traveling to Florida is Maryland with a head coach making his first ever road trip. Additionally, the Terps are working on a short week while the Panthers actually have an extra day of rest. Combine these factors with an experienced FIU team that is sure to learn from its mistakes last week and I'll take the double digits and the home team.
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  10. #10  
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    Pretty sure FIU is a big loser but will wait until the game is final to update my record.

    9/10/2016 (6-4-1, +2.58u)

    Virginia Tech Hokies +11 (-110), 1 unit:
    No reason to overreact to the Vols game last week. However there is one thing I cannot get out of my mind...both their O line and D line getting completely dominated. Hokies have a big coaching advantage as well (Foster, not Fuentes). VaTech's special teams and defense should do enough to keep this one inside the number.

    Washington State Cougars +11 (-110), 1 unit: Hard to back a team that lost to an FCS team last week. If anyone can circle the wagons it's the pirate, Mike Leach. This is an experienced offense that will score. I think their D can get enough stops to somehow keep them within double digits.

    Central Michigan Chippewas +20 (-110), 1 unit: Last year this game was a one score game into the 3rd quarter. The Chippewas have a very talented offense led by QB Cooper Rush. They have 8 starters back on each side of the ball and are the same team that played Michigan State very tough in East Lansing last season. The Cowboys are loaded as well and it's very difficult to play against them at home. With an early start time and Pittsburgh coming to town next week I'll take the big number and hope that the Chips D can make enough plays to keep them in this one.

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish -28 (-110), 1 unit: If for some reason you read the garbage I post you know I rarely play big favorites. I can't avoid this one. This is going to be a pissed off Fighting Irish team that played incredible football in the second half last week. Nevada has to replace 6 of their front 7 and no matter who plays QB for Notre Dame is going to have all the time in the world. This one is going to get ugly early and the only real question is if the Fighting Irish will leave the backdoor open.

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +28 (-110), 1 unit: This pick makes my stomach turn but I cannot avoid it. First of all Saban is not known for pouring it on lesser opponents. Second, this is the classic sandwich spot. Huge win against USC last week and a game next week against Ole Miss who has beaten them twice in the last two years. Have to hope the Hilltoppers can find a way to get it in the end zone twice and then hang on to stay inside the number. This play may not work out but it has a lot of things in its favor.

    Iowa Hawkeyes/North Carolina Tar Heels/Utah Utes (+143), 1 unit
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  11. #11  
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    Good start. Got a few lucky breaks. Hoping to keep the momentum going.

    9/15/2016 (10-6-2, +4.81u)

    Cincinnati Bearcats +7 (-110), 1 unit:
    Busy week and I definitely missed the best number. That being said, I still like the play. Houston is a fantastic football team with few weaknesses. I expect to see them in another NYD Bowl game. This one comes down to a few things for me: First, it's a short week and I tend to side with the home team on a short week and these short weeks are relatively new to this coaching staff. Second, traditionally, these games are very close. Third, the Bearcats can score on anyone and with their style of offense I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game.
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  12. #12  
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    Good luck tonight
    NBA 60-41 NCAA BK 17-10
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  13. #13  
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    Inside the number most of the game and lose big....oh well, on to the next one.

    9/16/2016 (10-7-2, +3.71u)

    UTSA Roadrunners +21.5 (-110):
    I'd be lying if I said I knew a lot about the Roadrunners. What I do know is Arizona State was in a track meet 6 days ago and they have their conference opener next week. Their offense is lethal but their defense is not. They're on the road in a huge potential flat spot and I feel compelled to grab the three TDs and hope that UTSA's very experienced offense can score enough points to keep it inside the number.
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  14. #14  
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    Hop..........good luck with tonight's play............indy
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    Hey hop, where are you in Chicago?? I live in the city.
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  16. #16  
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3pointdog View Post
    Hey hop, where are you in Chicago?? I live in the city.
    North shore area....work in the city.
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  17. #17  
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    Quote Originally Posted by indiana View Post
    Hop..........good luck with tonight's play............indy
    Thank you sir! Hope all is well.
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    UTSA looking good early but obviously will not be reflected in the record below. This is a scary card. A lot of plays and a lot of dogs.

    9/16/2016 (10-7-2, +3.71u)

    Louisville Cardinals +1 (-110), 1 unit:
    The Cardinals have a tremendous opportunity to make a statement early in the season with a monster opponent coming to town and bringing College Gameday with them. This one comes down to two things for me. First, FSU has a freshman QB making his first road start in what will be a brutal environment. Second, FSU will be without Derwin James who is the anchor of their defense. This one is going to be a great game andI think the home crowd gets Louisville over the top.

    Ohio Bobcats +26.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is a situational play for me. The Vols are coming off a win in an incredible environment last week. Up next? Their biggest rival, Florida. Tennessee isn't going to lose this game but the Bobcats have an experienced coach and can move the ball. Combine those things and I'll take the big number and hope the Vols are looking ahead in this one.

    Colorado Buffaloes +18 (-110), 1 unit: Kicking myself because I missed the best number in this one by a mile. I really like this Buffaloes team this year but I thought the rest of the world would be backing the Wolverines who have destroyed their first few opponents. Colorado is an experienced squad that a good QB and a good defense. Big step up in class for both teams and I think this number is a little inflated by all the love for Harbaugh and Michigan.

    Boston College Eagles +6 (-110), 1 unit: The Eagles had a nice early season test against Georgia Tech and played well. Their defense is still stellar and their offense can finally move the ball a little bit. The Hokies looked OK last week for awhile but are just too prone to mistakes this year. I expect them to simplify things and grind this one out a little. Give me a good defense that is playing a mistake prone team and getting a decent size number and I have to take a shot.

    Syracuse Orange +14 (-110), 1 unit: First road game of the year for an under the radar Bulls squad. Their star RB, Mack is a little banged up and while he will likely play, I'm not sure they're going to use him a lot. Tough spot for the Bulls as they have FSU coming to town next week. The Orange have an extra day of preparation and while their defense is awful they are going to spread the field and play quickly on offense. Combine the look ahead spot with an up tempo offense and I'll take two scores with the home team.

    Oregon Ducks +3 (-110), 1 unit: It seems like every time Helfrich is a dog on the road he wins the game outright. I hate backing a QB making his first road start but the Ducks have too many athletes across the board for the Cornhuskers. While the talent he is working with is certainly better, Mike Riley has shown no ability to beat Oregon and in a shootout I expect the road team to prevail.

    Ole Miss Rebels +10.5 (-110), 1 unit: There's no way Saban can lose to a team 3 times in a row, right? I said there was no way he was losing twice in a row when they played last year! The Rebels have a few things going for them. Even with the loss of several excellent players, their defense is still very good. Second, their QB Chad Kelly shows absolutely no fear and seems to will himself to his best games against Bama. Third, the Crimson Tide have two freshman QBs playing in their first road games. I'll take double digits and hope Ole Miss' home crowd can keep them in this one.

    Western Michigan Broncos -3 (-115), 1 unit: Backing a MAC team on the road as a favorite against a Big10 team makes no sense. However, while their win against Northwestern was strange they were in the game the whole time and their offense was excellent against a stout Wildcats defense. The Illini are developing a nice identity on offense but their defense is still suspect. The Broncos are an experienced squad that have a legitimate shot at a New Year's Day bowl. A win over a middle tier Power 5 team would go a long way towards helping them with their case.

    Ohio State Buckeyes -1 (-110), 1 unit: This one is about three things for me. First, it doesn't seem like Mayfield has figured out who his go to WR should be and just looks slightly uncomfortable. Second, if I'm picking between Stoops and Meyer I'm taking Meyer every time. Third, the public really likes the home dog and usually when the public likes a dog, bad things happen for the public.

    USC Trojans +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Trojans are still being penalized for the ass kicking that Bama put on them. The Trojans have enough athletes at the skill positions to score against the Cardinal. USC has a chance to erase the disaster against Alabama and have to be tired of losing to Stanford. I expect the Cardinal to win but not by more than a TD.

    San Jose State Spartans +13 (-110), 1 unit: Another situational play. The Utes are coming off a huge emotional win in the Holy War. Now they have the Spartans on deck with USC scheduled next Friday night. Seems like a perfect spot to let up a little. The Utah offense isn't clicking on all cylinders and San Jose State has enough experience and talent that they can keep this one inside the number if Utah is just a little flat.

    Penn State Nittany Lions/Notre Dame Fighting Irish/Texas Longhorns (+135), 1 unit:
    If I win the first two I will probably look to middle by grabbing Cal and the points.
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  19. #19  
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    Action Jackson baby!!!
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    Started out really strong, finished poorly. Somehow squeezed out a positive day.

    9/23/2016 (16-12-3, +4.31u)

    Utah Utes -2.5 (-115), 1 unit:
    Had every intention of playing USC as the level of competition thus far and talent far exceeds the Utes. However, a few things have me taking Utah. First and foremost the Trojans are going with a freshman QB making his first start on a short week in a brutal environment. Second, the Utah defense is absolutely legitimate. One of the best I have seen this year. Third, a lot of Utah's struggles seem to be coming from turnovers. Turnovers tend (not always, but tend) to balance out and revert to the mean. If they protect the ball tonight I think the home team gets a W.
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    Record is pending the result of tonight's Utah game.

    9/23/2016 (16-12-3, +4.31u)

    Ole Miss Rebels -7 (-110), 2 units:
    Love what I saw from the Rebels last week who fought their hearts out until the end. Even though they lost I think they can come in with their heads up against the Bulldogs. Georgia just has not looked right this year. They struggled at home against Nicholls and survived a mediocre Missouri squad. Their QB situation is unsettled and it's really due to their WR corps not getting open. That won't change this week against a tough Ole Miss defense who knows they have their backs against the wall.

    Florida State Seminoles -4 (-120), 1 unit: Had every intention of taking the Bulls earlier in the week. South Florida is a talented, explosive team. However, this has dropped to the point where I have to play the Seminoles. Their value couldn't be lower in the public's eyes after last week. They still have an elite defense and a strong running game. If they cannot get up for this game after being embarrassed last week then they have nothing left this season. Look for their best effort with a shot to get some pride back after last week's debacle.

    Massachusetts Minutemen +21.5 (-110), 1 unit: Tough spot for Mississippi State. They've already played a few conference games and they seem to play to the level of their competition. Now they have to go on the road against a weak UMass team. However this weak UMass team stayed within 3 TDs at Florida and finally got a win last week so they have a little momentum. Feels like it's just a few points too many.

    Notre Dame Fighting Irish -20.5 (-110), 1 unit: This is still a very good offense that knows it has no choice but to run up the score to look impressive whenever possible. The Blue Devils are going to give a freshman QB his first start in a tough environment and they haven't been able to score at all this season regardless of who is under center. I hate laying big numbers like this but this is the right spot to do it.

    Oregon State +13 (-110), 1 unit: The Beavers were impressive in their road loss at Minnesota. They seem to have fixed some of their defensive problems. Their offense still needs some work. The Broncos defense isn't good enough to be giving this many points on the road against an Oregon State team that is slowly creeping back to respectability.

    Colorado Buffaloes +10.5 (-110), 1 unit: Everything I'm seeing says Liufau will play. If that changes I'll likely get out of this play. The Buffaloes were handling Michigan last week until Liufau got hurt and have the firepower to stay with the Ducks. Oregon is equally beaten up physically, losing their best WR and possibly their top RB. Oregon also has to be a little more emotionally beaten after losing a heartbreaker at Nebraska last week. In a shootout I will take double digits and hope that Liufau makes it through the game.

    Oklahoma State +8.5 (-110), 1 unit: The Cowboys are getting some value due to their loss to CMU. Make no mistake, that CMU team is a very good football team. Oklahoma State bounced back nicely against Pitt last week under difficult circumstances which shows me they haven't thrown in the towel. Baylor is still high scoring and can go nuts at any time but they just haven't seemed right this season. They struggled with SMU for awhile and really haven't played anyone this year. Should be a track meet and I'll gladly grab more than a TD with the more tested team.

    Northwestern Wildcats +8.5 (-110), 1 unit:
    Great spot for Northwestern here. The Cornhuskers come in off a big, emotional win over Oregon and now hit the road for the first time this season. Northwestern has been less than impressive this season but one thing they can still do is play defense. This one feels like a close one that is going to come down to the wire and I like the home team to stay within a TD.

    UCLA Bruins +3 (-110), 1 unit:
    The Cardinal just keep plugging along but this could be a rough spot for them. First of all they have a huge game next Friday night against Washington. Second, this is their first road game of the year. The Bruins lost a tough game on the road against a very good Texas A&M team and are coming off a hard fought win at BYU. The Bruins have the firepower to hang with Stanford and if their D can get a few stops they should be in this one the whole way.
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  22. #22  
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    Good luck on your plays. Like that Colorado play.
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  23. #23  
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    Quote Originally Posted by Heatwave View Post
    Good luck on your plays. Like that Colorado play.

    Thank you!
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    Sorry, no time for a writeup on this one. GL to everyone!

    9/30/2016 (21-17-3, +4.81u)

    Washington Huskies -3 (-135), 2 units
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    Record does not include tonight's Washington game.

    10/1/2016 (21-17-3, +4.81u)

    Penn State Nittany Lions -3 (-105), 1 unit:
    Nittany Lions have been underwhelming this season while the Gophers come in at 3-0. However it is a very soft 3-0. They struggled at home with a bad Oregon State team and a bad Colorado State team. Penn State is battle tested and while they will struggle to stop the run, they can commit more men in the box and not have to worry about the WR's getting separation. Look for a loud crowd in Happy Valley to help the home team to a W.

    Wake Forest Demon Deacons +11 (-110), 1 unit:
    Tough spot here for the Wolfpack with Notre Dame on tap. NC State has an explosive offense but a very suspect defense. In their only tough game this year they lost to ECU. Wake has wins at Duke and at Indiana and unlike in years past they can actually put points on the board. Expect the home team to win but I think Wake keeps it close enough to stay inside the number.

    Cincinnati Bearcats +6 (-115), 1 unit:
    Situational play for me. Last week was South Florida's Super Bowl and they got destroyed. Now they have to get up to play against a very explosive Cincy squad in a really tough environment. The Bulls are the more talented team but I don't think they can get up for this one after last week.

    Clemson Tigers +1.5 (-110), 2 units:
    Really hard to bet against Louisville with the roll they are on. Two reasons I'm taking them. First, Sweeney is a big advantage over Petrino. Second, Death Valley, at night. Throw in a point and a half and I am in. I cannot pass Clemson as a dog at home at night.

    Indiana Hoosiers +6 (-110), 1 unit: The Spartans just don't seem like the same team they have been in the past. Wisconsin is good but they destroyed Michigan State and Sparty struggled to move the ball. Now they have to turn around and go on the road against a much improved Hoosiers squad and play them under the lights in Bloomington. I don't think Indiana wins this one but I don't think Michigan State has enough firepower to win by a TD.

    Arizona State Sun Devils +10 (-110), 1 unit:
    There is no doubt USC is the best 1-3 team in the country as their schedule has been brutal. Regardless of how good they are, their defense has looked mediocre at best. The Sun Devils haven't played anyone but they can score with anyone. I do not trust the Trojans D to get enough stops to win by double digits.
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