How to bet Sunday night's matchup between the Royals and Red Sox

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hacheman@therx.com
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[h=1]How to bet Sunday night's matchup between the Royals and Red Sox[/h]MLB Vegas ExpertsESPN Chalk
ESPN INSIDER


It's back to the American League for ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball as the crew swings into Fenway Park just in time to catch the Junior Circuit's hottest team, the Kansas City Royals. Despite dropping yesterday's game with their emerging ace, Danny Duffy, on the mound, the defending world champions have the best record in the American League this month at 18-7.
In their quest to become the first defending champions to return to the playoffs since the 2012 St. Louis Cardinals, they've gotten hot just in time. At the end of July, the Royals were fourth in the AL Central and 8½ games out of the final playoff berth. Today, they enter play just three games behind Baltimore for the second wild-card spot.
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It's been a long, hot summer on the East Coast, and for the second week in a row, viewers will be treated to some heat of their own. Last week it was Noah Syndergaard shutting down the Giants, and this week we'll get a look atYordano Ventura. According to ESPN Stats & Information, among qualified starting pitchers this year, only Syndergaard has a higher average fastball velocity than Ventura.
Toeing the rubber for the Red Sox is another hard thrower, 23-year-oldEduardo Rodriguez. He started the season in the minors before making his 2016 debut for the Red Sox on May 31, and while his 5.11 ERA this season may look worrisome, Rodriquez has actually been stellar since the All-Star break. Over his six second-half starts, he has posted a 2.52 ERA.
In addition to featuring a Red Sox squad leading the American League wild-card race and just a game back in the AL East, this may also be the Sunday Night Baseball swan song for David Ortiz. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Ortiz has more RBIs (59) in Sunday Night Baseball games than anyone else, and with 20 home runs, he sits two behind Alex Rodriguez in total homers on SNB. Tonight will be his 59th appearance in MLB's weekly showcase event.
Our Chalk handicapping team showcased their skills last weekend as Joe Peta (10-5, +6.73 units on the season) and Andrew Lange (four wins in a row) nailed the winning side. Dave Tuley missed his totals call last week, but still sits on the happy side of the bettor's Mendoza line at 6-5, +0.40 units for the season. This week Peta chooses a side, while Tuley and Lange come to the same conclusion evaluating the total.
Editor's Note: Lines are subject to change based on time and location, and these picks were made based on prices at the time of filing. Be aware of differences in available odds and consider the included analysis relative to the stated lines within the article when placing bets.

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Westgate line: Royals (Yordano Ventura) +135 at Red Sox (Eduardo Rodriguez) -145
Over/under: 9 (-115 under)
PickCenter Intel

Joe Peta: We've got an interesting pitching matchup tonight between two starters who have posted significantly better results in the second half of the season than the first. The question for bettors: Whose results do you trust more? Both pitchers have compiled similar, mid-2.00 ERAs since the All-Star break, but to my eye, only Ventura has the skill set -- and teammates -- that could possibly justify that level of production going forward. I mentioned "teammates" because the Royals back Ventura with one of the best defenses in the game, which can help convert a pitcher's skill set into a lower ERA. While the Red Sox made personnel shifts this year that resulted in markedly improved adjusted defensive efficiency compared to the league's 26th ranked defense in 2015, it's still a league-average unit at best.
On the other hand, I am not remotely sold on the sustainability of the recent results of Rodriguez. I write a lot about matching skill sets with environment, and his extreme fly-ball tendencies are terribly suited for Fenway Park. Of the 153 pitchers who have thrown at least 60 innings as a starter this season, onlyJered Weaver induces fewer ground balls than Rodriguez. Think about the implications of that before placing a bet on the Red Sox tonight. Boston is essentially starting a slightly wilder version of Weaver tonight. (To be fair, this is a version that can at least strike out batters at a league-average rate.)
The Red Sox have the ability to outscore anyone in a given game, but tonight they're starting in a hole from the perspective of the starting pitcher, the defense and (by an enormous margin) the bullpen. I will happily back the Royals at solid underdog odds.
ESPN Chalk pick: Kansas City Royals +135

Andrew Lange: The enigmatic Ventura has managed to lower his ERA by almost a full run over his most recent nine-start stretch. And during that span, he has faced some quality offenses: Detroit (twice), Texas (twice), Seattle and Toronto. It has no doubt coincided with an uptick in velocity. Earlier this year, Ventura's fastball was in the 94-96 mph range. In his last three starts, his velocity sat 97-99. Those outings accounted for three of his top four strikeout performances of the season (22 total). Which Ventura you'll see tonight is a question for the ages, but his mechanics, velocity and stuff suggest he's in top form.
And speaking of good form, Boston's Rodriguez is certainly that after returning in late May from a knee injury. Rodriguez has the potential to stick as a No. 2 or No. 3 starter after a stellar rookie campaign which saw him flash a 3.85 ERA. It took him a while to regain his strength and confidence, but his last six starts have been near flawless: 32. 1 IP, 38 Ks, 2.78 ERA. Rodriguez tweaked his hamstring during his last start against Baltimore on Aug. 16. The Red Sox gave him some extra rest, and reports indicate he's good to go.
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</article>Despite having the highest run production in the league (5.4 runs per game) and a league average pitching staff (4.16 ERA, 15th in MLB), the Red Sox are nearly dead even from a season-long totals perspective (63-60-6 O/U). Note that they're on a 9-18 O/U run on games totaled 9 or higher. The Royals, meanwhile, are one of the strongest "under" teams in baseball (52-69-8 O/U).
I see two starting pitchers whose current form is far better than their season-long stats. Add in one elite bullpen and another decent set of relievers, and at 9, I'll look under the total.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 9 (-115)

Dave Tuley: I'll second what Andrew Lange wrote above. The over/under of 9 is a little high considering how Ventura and Rodriguez have been throwing lately. Of course, both offenses have been hitting well, but in addition to the stats mentioned by Lange, I'll also add that Saturday's game was the first over in the Royals' past eight. Friday's game was a push, but that was with an over/under of 7.
The Royals are also 8-1 with the under in their last nine games following a loss, indicating the pitching staff has been in stop-mode as the Royals try to claw their way back into the playoff race. The home plate umpire, Chad Whitson, is 4-3 with the over this season, but teams are averaging just seven runs in games during which he has been behind the plate, so that record is a little misleading and we'll take the value with the total set at 9.
ESPN Chalk pick: under 9 (-115)
 

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Thanks for info Hache..Hache can I please be removed from post review?I don't do anything wrong here..It sucks to post and it shows up 15 mins later..If I do anything wrong you can permanently ban me..Please consider..Thank you
 

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Good stuff, Hache, thanks! I wasn't going to bet this one cause I couldn't pick a side. Now I sprinkled a little on the game, and it will be more fun to watch it!
 

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Thank you for the research Hache! I took KC and got a nice reward :) always good to follow an educated guess
 

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