2 Monday w/analysis

Both plays are for 2 units

BALTIMORE +120 over Toronto
7:05 PM EST. It’s been a coast-to-coast-to-coast year for Wade Miley. After toiling for the Red Sox in 2015, Miley was traded to the Mariners in December, and then again to the Orioles at the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Miley’s not exactly shined for Baltimore, posting a 9.53 ERA in four starts. Miley has not had an ERA under 4.30 since 2013 but his skills are essentially the same now as they were then. In other words, Miley shows he’s pitched at this level for years. His xERA shows that he's done better than his ERA indicates but his strand rate isn’t helping. He’s not doing enough to stand out. Other than the 2014 outlier, Miley's K-rate has been in the upper-6 range for years. Miley does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground but he’s also been hurt by hr/f this year. The change in venue doesn’t exactly help; while Safeco played neutral, Camden Yards enhances LH HR by 37%. Miley looks like an innings-eater at this point and his 9%/39% dominant start/disaster start split shows he’ll post an occasional gem, but there also will be a ton of clunkers. Wade Miley is not exactly the type of pitcher we like to get behind but Baltimore’s bullpen is superior to Toronto’s and we suspect the pens might have a say in this one.

The Jays are coming off a three-game sweep over the Twinkies in which they scored 32 runs combined. The three-game sweep has this market forgetting all about the Jays losing two of three to the Angels prior. This weekend, Jose Bautista returned, Josh Donaldson was whacking balls out the park and the Jays played to a packed house all weekend long. It was a fun weekend for the Jays and their fans but once again, Toronto’s stock is way higher than it should be. Lost in those three wins was Toronto allowing the Twins to score 21 times. If not for Minnesota’s horrible bullpen, we might be talking about a Jays five-game losing streak to the Angels and Twins, as Minnesota blew leads in all three games, including a three-run and four-run lead in the final two.

We kept insisting that Marco Estrada’s run of success was fueled by luck and many of you kept insisting we were wrong. We kept responding by saying it was not an opinion, but fact that Marco Estrada’s two years of remarkable numbers was mostly luck and at some point luck runs out. While we are just three starts into Estrada’s inevitable regression, chances are he’ll NEVER see numbers anything close to the numbers he put up over the past two years so let’s go over this one more time. Estrada is constantly behind in the count. His first-pitch strike rate of 54% is one of the lowest among starters. That’s significant because MLB hitters are batting .267 when the count is 1-0. When the count is 0-1, they are batting .178. Estrada’s 47% fly-ball rate is also one of the worst among starters. That assures us of a weak hr/f rate, which Estrada has (11%). All those balls hit to the warning track are no longer being hit to the warning track. Instead, they are going over the fence. Estrada has been tagged for six jacks over his last three starts covering 14 innings. He’s also given up 22 hits and walked seven batters over those aforementioned 14 frames. Estrada’s strand rate during his remarkable (lucky) run was 86%. Over his past three starts that strand rate has normalized to 71%, which is just below league average. Estrada is not in a slump. He's still throwing 87 MPH on his lifless fastball. He’s pitching exactly the same now (8.28 ERA over his last three starts) as when he pitched to an ERA of 2.92 over his first 19 starts or when he didn’t crack the Jays or Brewers rotation two and three years ago respectively. The difference is luck and Estrada’s has run out.

DETROIT -1½ +104 over Chicago
Prior to the 2015 season, Matt Boyd was a 6’3”, 215-pound finesse lefty that moved quickly through the Blue Jays' minor league system since being drafted in the sixth round in 2013. Armed with a low-to-mid 90s mph fastball, a mid-70s curve, and low 80s change, none of Boyd’s pitches graded out as plus despite a 9.3 K’s/9 rate in the minors. Boyd mostly got by on deception than stuff, though his fastball has developed into an above-average pitch and he can hold his velocity deeper into games. Boyd is now starting to thrive, as all his metrics are trending in the right direction. Boyd’s fastball is up to 92 MPH with regularity. He can change speeds with ease. He has 26 K’s over his past 30 innings and he’s also throwing more strikes. Boyd’s first-pitch strike rate is up from 60% on the year to 64% over his past seven starts. In his last start he only walked one batter through six full. His groundball rate has also risen from a low 32% prior to this year to a serviceable 40% over his last eight starts. Matt Boyd is getting progressively better with each passing month and he’ll now face a South Side team that might have to score seven or more times to beat us.

Enter James Shields, our favorite fade because he’s the worst starter in MLB. Shields’ continues to get hit hard every single time he pitches. His success all depends on where those hard hit balls land. He’s truly no better than a batting practice pitching machine and cannot in any way be expected to do well when he takes the mound. We cannot promise that balls hit will find holes or gaps but we can 100% guarantee that balls will be put in play and they’ll be hit hard. Aside from being a complete disaster, Shields’ putrid 33%/48% groundball/fly-ball split over his last five games assures us that unless the wind is blowing in, he’ll be taken yard again and probably more than once. Shields’ has given up 11 jacks in his last four starts covering a mere 15 frames. His BB/K split on the year is a laughable 60/97 in 143 innings. When James Shields pitches and you can fade him without laying juice, it is highly recommended to do so because when he pitches, his team loses far more often that it wins and it’s almost always by more than one run.

good luck tonight Mr. Sherwood

S/wood.......great write ups...........lov the Det play............BOL with all your action............indy

I thought you might be on Baltimore today. I think Marco has a great game today.
Good luck with your action Sherwood

I took Detroit on the run line early this morning with the undeniable feeling of being the squarest of squares. Now that I read your writeup I feel like I stayed at a Holiday Inn.

gl on all