Royals question for tonight

kid31 · Aug 30, 2016

Depending on the forum to help me learn something.

A LOT of respected posters on KC Royals at home tonight as a dog.

With around 65% of the action/tickets in on the royals, why has the line gone from +120 to +133? Every reliable source I have ever used to determine this says the majority of the tickets is on Royals by a good margin. I have to believe this is true, its a friendly looking play. So why are they becoming an even bigger underdog?

BigHurt007 · Aug 30, 2016

There is no such thing as accurate reporting of bet tickets. That's your first step in understanding this. It's either completely fabricated, or purposefully incorrect.

blackchina · Aug 30, 2016

line movement isn't always the true all test. I have found that a lot of royals games have been going the other way and they are still winning. 13 cent move doesn't mean anything really. i would say over 40 cent move up to gametime then yes so monitor it. if it goes to +160 then maybe lay off but royals are the hottest team in baseball and they beat up tanaka last time they played. Volquez just needs to limit his runs and the bullpen will take over. hard to take the yanks when they are favourite on the road against an 41-21 team i think at home but who knows. anything can happen

kid31 · Aug 30, 2016

Thanks blackchina. I think thats a very good point on the amount swinging a line something to keep an eye out for.

I was just worried that some large syndicate or someone with a huge play came in on NYY causing this.

blackchina · Aug 30, 2016

kid31 said:
Thanks blackchina. I think thats a very good point on the amount swinging a line something to keep an eye out for.

I was just worried that some large syndicate or someone with a huge play came in on NYY causing this.

no problem but i wouldn't worry about that in baseball. Football is where the public gets smashed and lines stay at -2.5 when public on them 80%

tmader7 · Aug 30, 2016

I'd agree with blackchina, a 10-15 cent move doesn't warrant one considering RLM. As he stated, you get to the 30+ range, time to consider betting opposite, Pinny rule of offshore gambling, LOL. Those guys are the most notorious of RLM action and the general public falls for it like a chance to get Jena Jameson in the sack back in her heyday. GL

~T~

kid31 · Aug 30, 2016

great info exchanging guys, thank you both. GL

varkeyboy · Aug 30, 2016

LET'S GO ROYALS!!!!! Kill it.

ChugsMcGee · Aug 30, 2016

The same type of movement occurred in yesterday's Yankees/Royals game as well and you see how that ended. From a strictly sabermetric perspective, both Tanaka and Pineda are highly respected pitchers in that they are thought to have "good stuff", but Royals are "magic" at home. Pick a side. (Well you really don't have to, you can pass as well.

KingEleven · Aug 30, 2016

Royals been winning some money lately...I say ride it, much like the Rangers were an ATM for a period earlier this season.

ChugsMcGee · Aug 30, 2016

KingEleven said:
Royals been winning some money lately...I say ride it, much like the Rangers were an ATM for a period earlier this season.

This raises an interesting point. The Rangers were "undervalued" for a large portion of the year because many considered them "lucky" based on a high BABIP and a very low run differential (based strictly on their run differential of +8 they "should be" a .500 ballclub), but they continued to pull the rabbit out of their ass/hat.

One school of thought is you continue to ride the hot hand and you only lose once. You try to go against the trend and you can only win once...(now there are flaws in this, but I assume you see the point.)

KingEleven · Aug 30, 2016

ChugsMcGee said:
This raises an interesting point. The Rangers were "undervalued" for a large portion of the year because many considered them "lucky" based on a high BABIP and a very low run differential (based strictly on their run differential of +8 they "should be" a .500 ballclub), but they continued to pull the rabbit out of their ass/hat.

One school of thought is you continue to ride the hot hand and you only lose once. You try to go against the trend and you can only win once...(now there are flaws in this, but I assume you see the point.)

especially when they are + money! I had them all 3 games against the Red Sox and they hit 2 at a + #

kid31 · Aug 31, 2016

Vegas definitely wanted us on the wrong side royals last night. My gut was right and I went down with my sailors.

Tonight all the sudden they're priced right. They win the series at home tonight.

razorbackpicks · Aug 31, 2016

The royals should have won that game. Don't always believe the book is either right or screwing you. Dogs beat favorites more than some bettors ever want to admit, rightfully beat that is.

BigHurt007 · Aug 31, 2016

kid31 said:
Vegas definitely wanted us on the wrong side royals last night. My gut was right and I went down with my sailors.

Tonight all the sudden they're priced right. They win the series at home tonight.

This was about as coin flip of a game as you could watch. Yes Yankees went up 4-0 but the rain delay/Royals strengths got them back in the game. There is no way "Vegas" was searching for heavy Royals actions. Tanaka was a better pitcher and really the only way the Royals even were in the game was bc he was bounced because of the rain delay

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