Ultimate 2016 NFL predictions
ESPN NFL Insiders
You want NFL predictions? We've got NFL predictions. Our panel of Insiders -- Matt Bowen, John Clayton, Mike Sando, Aaron Schatz and Field Yates -- peered into the future on a number of topics. MVP picks. Playoff teams. Breakout players. Rookie flops. Guys who will be overhyped. Teams who are being overlooked. The Super Bowl winner. And so much more.
Read through the full file or use to links below to hop around to the subject of your choosing.
Who's your MVP pick?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. For as many issues as Green Bay had on offense last season, Rodgers still threw for 3,821 yards with 31 touchdown passes. With wide receiver Jordy Nelson back, and a more consistent attack on the ground, Rodgers will be in a position to light up opposing defenses again. And that's trouble for the rest of the league.
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers. If Big Ben can maintain a 30-point-per-game offense and the Steelers improve on defense, they have a great chance to make a Super Bowl run.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. He tossed 25 touchdown passes with two interceptions over the second half of last season as Seattle shifted toward a quick passing game. This is the year any remaining skeptics realize Wilson is much more than adequate as a pocket passer.
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. Football Outsiders projections have Arizona and Seattle as the two best teams in the league, and I think there's a (correct) public perception that Carson Palmer's big numbers are helped along by his teammates more than Wilson's big numbers. Wilson doesn't have to do what he did in the second half of 2015 -- something between that and the first half of last season would likely be MVP-worthy if Seattle goes 12-4 or better. I don't expect a Newton repeat because I don't think Carolina will be one of the NFC's top seeds, although that won't be because Newton plays any worse.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. It's scary to think that Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns last season when remembering his top receiver missed the entire season and he started slowly -- he had 15 total touchdowns in the first seven games, compared to 30 in the final nine games. Newton's ceiling is unparalleled.
Give us an off-the-radar/dark-horse MVP pick.
Bowen: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Carr tossed 32 touchdown passes last season and threw for almost 4,000 yards. Not bad for a second-year pro. The Raiders made upgrades on the offensive line, and Carr has enough weapons around him -- including stud wide receiver Amari Cooper -- to produce big numbers again in 2016. If Carr takes the Raiders to the postseason, he could be in the mix.
Clayton: Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers. Lacy has the powerful running style to put together a Marshawn Lynch-like season. He is in great shape, and it's a contract year. A 1,300-yard season could place him among the league's leading rushers.
Sando: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions. By darkhorse, we're not talking about my second or third choice. We're talking about someone off the radar. Stafford tossed 19 touchdown passes with two interceptions once Jim Bob Cooter took over the Lions' offense last season. Unfortunately for him, a rugged NFC North could keep Detroit on the outside looking in.
Schatz: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Imagine the narrative here: Elliott leads the NFL in carries and rushing yards as a rookie, and the Cowboys win the NFC East despite playing the first half of the season without Tony Romo. The true heroes would be the offensive linemen, but MVP voters don't give the award to blockers. They give the award to the guys who get the yardage.
Yates: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals. There isn't a hole in Johnson's game. He's an adept runner between the tackles with the burst to get to the edge and is one of the league's finest pass-catching backs. If Arizona gives him 250-plus touches this season, he could be in the MVP mix.
Which player will be the biggest flop in 2016?
Bowen: Brock Osweiler, QB Texans. The Texans added some legitimate speed and playmaking ability to the offense, but is that enough to facilitate production from Osweiler? His tape is average. The Texans took a big risk here throwing a ton of money at an unproven QB who is still developing.
Clayton: Robert Griffin III, QB, Browns. Hue Jackson could be the right coach to turn around Griffin's career, and the quarterback is working hard to fix his game. But it is too much to think he can turn around a franchise, too. The Browns don't have the talent around him to succeed this season.
Sando: Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles. Bradford played well enough late last season to generate some optimism, but it's tough to bank on an oft-injured QB who has never played consistently well over the course of a season. The Eagles would not have signed Chase Daniel and drafted Carson Wentz if they disagreed.
Schatz: Christian Hackenberg, QB, Jets. Yes, I know he probably won't play this season, but isn't that part of the problem? The Jets wasted a second-round pick on a quarterback with terrible college numbers who is currently fourth on their depth chart. The Jets say they are trying to fix his passing mechanics. Did they not watch the same film as all the online draftniks and notice that this was kind of an issue? Also, I didn't want to pile on Brock Osweiler with some sort of "5-for-5" sweep of this category.
Yates: Brock Osweiler, QB, Texans. This comes down to a few factors. Osweiler will always be measured against his lucrative contract ($72 million over four seasons), and Houston might not be angling to put a huge workload on his shoulders in comparison to what other quarterbacks are asked to do. The Texans ran the football more than all but four teams last season and will likely lean heavily on the running game this season. And, frankly, there's still a lot to learn about Osweiler as a player who has minimal starting experience.
Who's your breakout player of the year?
Bowen: Kevin White, WR Bears. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, White has matchup ability and the 4.3 speed to put stress on opposing secondaries. White is still developing at the position after missing the entire 2015 season, but the Bears can accelerate his learning curve by putting the ball in his hands. He's a freakish talent.
Clayton: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. He might not throw a lot of passes in coach Mike Mularkey's run-oriented offense, but Mariota will continue to evolve as a great game manager and running threat. He will be efficient.
Sando: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Jaguars. While Jacksonville spent big for Malik Jackson this offseason, Fowler has the talent to emerge as its best defensive player. Was there a more talented and physically violent defender selected in the 2015 draft?
Schatz: Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. Miller has a career average of 4.6 yards per carry and is still only 25. When he finishes in the top five in rushing this season -- and adds another 40 or so receptions -- we're all going to wonder why the Dolphins completely left him out of the game plan in certain weeks.
Yates: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. It's no mystery that Mariota offers upside -- he flashed it last season as a rookie. Now with a better ground game and bulked-up offensive line, Mariota should make significant strides toward superstardom this season.
Which player has the best chance to dethrone J.J. Watt as the NFL's best defender?
Bowen: Khalil Mack, OLB, Raiders. Mack has the skill set to develop into the league's top edge rusher. Given his power, speed and technique, Mack's ceiling is off the charts. He had 15 sacks last season. Beast.
Clayton: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Some believe he's close to achieving this honor. He has been a dominating defender for the Rams.
Sando: Robert Quinn, DE, Rams. Quinn exited the spotlight while missing eight games to injury last season. While Khalil Mack would be the safe choice here, let's not forget the 26-year-old Quinn is just two seasons removed from a 19-sack season.
Schatz: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Watt is not going anywhere for a while, but Donald is the second-best defensive player in the game right now. Last season, he had 11 sacks, and we tracked him with 27 QB hits (not including sacks) and 31 hurries. Donald led all defensive tackles in sacks and had 10 more QB hits than any other player at his position. Eagles defender Fletcher Cox (34 hurries as a 3-4 end) was the only interior lineman with more hurries.
Yates: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. It takes rare production from an interior defensive lineman to merit consideration for a major award, but Donald presents exactly that. He has 20.0 sacks in just two pro seasons. He's as explosive as any lineman in football with play-destroying ability on every snap.
Who will win the NFC East?
Bowen: Giants. They have upgrades on the defensive side of the ball and more weapons on offense for QB Eli Manning. The Giants will make a strong December run to win a division that's wide open.
Clayton: Redskins. They are the most complete team in the division. Kirk Cousins will continue to grow with Jay Gruden, and the defense should improve.
Sando: Redskins. The Giants have spent out of desperation to help a rookie head coach. The Eagles' QB situation is too fluid. The Cowboys are breaking in a new QB. Washington could be the safest bet.
Schatz: Giants. I've been driving the Dallas bandwagon all offseason, but even if Dak Prescott is better than the usual fourth-round rookie, he's not going to be as good as Tony Romo. Combine that with the pass-rush questions and Rolando McClain's nonsense, and it seems likely that the Giants and their rebuilt defense can edge past the Cowboys and take the division. It would help if they don't lead the league in injuries for once.
Yates: Giants. The defensive line was a focus in free agency, which should help propel this team back to double-digit wins.
Who will win the NFC North?
Bowen: Packers. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy will produce numbers, but it's Dom Capers' versatile defense that allows Green Bay to win the North.
Clayton: Packers. With Teddy Bridgewater out for the season in Minnesota, the Packers should cruise to the division title with no problem.
Sando: Packers. Have we forgotten the Vikings won this division last season? Apparently so. I see Green Bay earning 11-12 victories with Nelson back. That should be enough.
Schatz: Packers. Nelson is back, and I like Rodgers and Lacy to rebound. The defense has been very inconsistent from year to year under Dom Capers, but after Bridgewater's injury, that probably won't matter.
Yates: Packers. It's going to be a close race with Minnesota -- yes, even after the Teddy Bridgewater injury -- but Nelson will help resurrect what was a stuck-in-the-mud offense last season.
Who will win the NFC South?
Bowen: Panthers. Opposing teams still won't have an answer for Cam Newton, and the Panthers' defensive front-seven will continue to create chaos in the South. It's the Panthers -- again.
Clayton: Panthers. The Falcons might be the Panthers' biggest challengers, but Carolina has the best roster. Plus, Newton continues to grow as the best young quarterback in the league.
Sando: Panthers. The NFC South is stacked at QB with Jameis Winston's emergence, but Carolina is the only team from the division with a defense worth trusting.
Schatz: Panthers. Their defense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will be far superior to the other three defenses in the division. Plus, there's Cam Newton.
Yates: Panthers. I think there's a decent chance that Carolina regresses by two or three wins this season, but the Panthers are still a superior overall team to last year's Super Bowl runner-up squad. This roster is loaded.
Who will win the NFC West?
Bowen: Seahawks. They have too much speed on defense. The Seahawks will suffocate opposing teams this year with playmakers on all three levels of the field.
Clayton: Seahawks. Seattle added a draft class loaded with great players and great leaders. Plus, Russell Wilson will continue his rise into the top tier of quarterbacks.
Sando: Seahawks. Seattle must get the ball out quickly to help its offensive tackles. The Seahawks figured that out last season. Bradley Sowell has played better than anyone could have expected at left tackle, which is a plus.
Schatz: Cardinals. I still think the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit will make the difference between the Cardinals and Seahawks, who look like the two best and most well-rounded teams in the NFL. Because of Tom Brady's four-game suspension, Arizona gets to play Jimmy Garoppolo at home, while the Seahawks will face Brady on the road later in the season.
Yates: Seahawks. It's possible the two best teams in this conference are in the NFC West, but I'll give Seattle a slight edge over Arizona. The offense will soar to complement this terrific defense.
Who will win the AFC East?
Bowen: Patriots. After navigating the first four weeks of the season without Brady, the Patriots will continue their dominance of the East. It's another division title for Belichick.
Clayton: Patriots. As long as Brady and Belichick are together, the division belongs to the Patriots. The Pats will go 2-2 or better during the Brady suspension and come out with 11 wins.
Sando: Patriots. Having three home games during Brady's absence could help the Patriots match or even improve upon their 12-victory total from last season. Playing the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing QBs (as measured by our QB Tiers survey) helps.
Schatz: Patriots. They have a multifaceted defense that will counter opponents' strength, and they get 12 weeks of Tom Brady. Plus, the Jets will regress, the Bills are a mess, and the Dolphins are starting over.
Yates: Patriots. Although the Patriots will no doubt miss Brady during his four-game suspension, the depth and talent of this roster will be revealed during that time.
Who will win the AFC North?
Bowen: Steelers. Concerns in the secondary will be covered up by Ben Roethlisberger and one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh will score -- often.
Clayton: Steelers. Despite suspensions and injuries, the Steelers have an offense that can score 30 points a game. Plus, the defense will be better in Keith Butler's second year as defensive coordinator.
Sando: Bengals. It's easy to underestimate Cincy based on their postseason mishaps, but only the Patriots, Packers, Broncos and Seahawks have won more regular-season games in the past five seasons.
Schatz: Steelers. With Roethlisberger healthy, this is the best offense in the NFL right now.
Yates: Steelers. Even without Le'Veon Bell for three games and Martavis Bryant for the full season, Pittsburgh figures to be an offensive juggernaut.
Who will win the AFC South?
Bowen: Texans. I have questions about Brock Osweiler, but the Texans can facilitate some of his development with the new speed on offense and the All-Pro ability of DeAndre Hopkins. They play some good defense down in Houston too.
Clayton: Texans. Bill O'Brien gets the most out of his quarterbacks, so Osweiler should be effective. The Texans have the best defense in the division, and they are the most complete team in the AFC South.
Sando: Texans. It's tough picking against a healthy Andrew Luck in the AFC South, but the Texans have the more talented roster. They also should have a coaching edge. O'Brien could become one of the best.
Schatz: Colts. Honestly, just flip a coin -- or a series of coins. Football Outsiders' projections give all four teams in the South a between 25 and 40 percent chance of making the playoffs, rarely via wild card. But the Colts come out on top most often, mostly because they have the best quarterback -- if Andrew Luck rebounds as expected.
Yates: Texans. The offensive line is a concern to begin the season, but the defense has the potential to be dominant.
Who will win the AFC West?
Bowen: Broncos. Can Trevor Siemian manage Gary Kubiak's system? I think he can. That could be enough, given the Broncos' top-tier defense. I'll take Denver to win the West again behind Von Miller and a secondary that can lock down opposing wide receivers.
Clayton: Broncos. Denver still has one of the most talented defenses in the league. As long as Siemian doesn't turn the ball over a ton, the Broncos should stay slightly ahead of Kansas City and Oakland.
Sando: Chiefs. The Broncos are the Super Bowl champs, and the Raiders have become media darlings, which makes Kansas City an AFC West afterthought. All the Chiefs do is play tough defense and smart offense under one of the game's best head coaches. They have quietly improved the supporting cast around quarterback Alex Smith.
Schatz: Chiefs. This offense is a lot better than most people realize, despite the limitations of the quarterback, and offense is simply more consistent and predictable than defense. It's rare for a defense to play at an all-time great level for two seasons in a row, and if Denver's defense declines to a top-five unit in the league, then the Broncos are just the Rams or Texans. Oakland isn't ready yet.
Yates: Broncos. The formula will be the same: Win with defense and a running game. Expect this division to be tight.
Who will be the four wild-card teams?
Bowen
NFC: Cardinals/Lions. Expect Carson Palmer to put up MVP numbers again in Bruce Arians' vertical offense, while a healthy Tyrann Mathieu leads the Cards' D to a playoff ticket. With the injury to Bridgewater, the door is open for the final wild-card spot in the NFC. Matthew Stafford played his best football during the second-half of the past season under new OC Jim Bob Cooter, and the defense has talent.
AFC: Raiders/Bengals. Derek Carr's production meshes with an Oakland defense that can rush the passer. It doesn't have to be complicated. The Raiders are back and will edge K.C. for the final wild-card spot. In Cincinnati, the loss of Hue Jackson could impact the production on offense, but the Bengals have the defense to control tempo. Cincy will win some ugly games to get in the dance.
Clayton
NFC: Falcons/Cardinals. Atlanta has the offensive weapons to bounce back from the sluggish way it ended the 2015 season. The Cardinals and Seahawks are the most talented teams in football. Even if Arizona isn't able to take the West from Seattle like it did last year, the Cardinals are good enough to win 10 games and make the playoffs.
AFC: Bengals/Chiefs. The Bengals' roster is loaded, and Andy Dalton is that much more of a leader. In K.C., Andy Reid has a good defense, and Alex Smith can manage the passing game while the running game continues to be a force.
Sando
NFC: Cardinals/Lions. The Cardinals shouldn't drop off much if Carson Palmer can rebound from a rough postseason, but Arizona will have a hard time matching the 140 points off turnovers that the team collected last season. That was up from an 87.5 average over Bruce Arians' first two seasons with the team. Bridgewater's injury opens the door for another NFC North team to grab the conference's second wild-card spot. The Lions have enough talent to make that happen if Matthew Stafford continues to flourish in Jim Bob Cooter's offense.
AFC: Broncos/Steelers. Denver plays the NFL's toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks, according to input from 42 league insiders for ESPN's annual QB Tiers survey. The Broncos also lost some talent on defense. That's why I see them settling for a wild card. Issues surrounding Martavis Bryant, Le'Veon Bell and Ladarius Green make me think Ben Roethlisberger will again have to carry too much of the load. He can do it well enough to keep Pittsburgh in the mix.
Schatz
NFC: Seahawks/Lions. Barring a catastrophic injury, it's hard to see the Seahawks missing the playoffs, even if they don't win the West. The Bridgewater injury turns the race for the second NFC wild-card into a hurricane of question marks. I give the Lions a slight edge over other teams because the defense should rebound, and we project them to have one of the league's five easiest schedules.
AFC: Bengals/Ravens. The whole AFC West will be in the wild-card mix, but I like the AFC North teams. It blows my mind how many fans seem to write off the Ravens as if they are some sort of expansion team that will again be saddled with December's injury-riddled roster. Baltimore is back to the team that went 10-6 in 2014. Their secret advantage: quality and consistency on special teams that only New England can match.
Yates
NFC: Vikings/Cardinals. The NFC figures to be the stronger conference, top to bottom. Arizona could easily win the West this year, and Minnesota could have been in the mix in the North prior to Bridgewater's injury.
AFC: Bengals/Chiefs. Both of these teams have question marks worth monitoring. The Chiefs' pass rush will fall off a bit while Justin Houston recovers from ACL surgery, and the Bengals must fill the holes in the passing game. But I'm still picking Cincy and K.C. to make return trips to the postseason.
Who's your Super Bowl pick?
Bowen: Seahawks over Steelers. I always roll with defense. And the Seahawks have ridiculous talent at all three levels of the field. Pete Carroll's club locks down the Steelers on the game's biggest stage to grab another ring.
Clayton: Seahawks over Steelers. What Matt said.
Sando: Seahawks over Patriots. Wilson scores the winning TD with a QB keeper on second-and-goal from the 1 in the final minute.
Schatz: Cardinals over Steelers. Bruce Arians' revenge. U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has given Arizona and Pittsburgh an advantage over Seattle and New England when it comes to getting the No. 1 seed in each conference, and that's where I'm making my pick.
Yates: Cardinals over Patriots. A pair of teams catalyzed by veteran quarterbacks will bookend their seasons against each other with a Week 1 and Super Bowl matchup. Arizona will hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Who's the best offensive player no one is talking about?
Bowen: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin caught 14 touchdowns in 2015. And he took over the league during the second half of the season. That doesn't happen by mistake.
Clayton: Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints. Remember: Cooks plays in an offense that can gain 5,000 yards through the air. He will easily exceed his 1,138 receiving yards from last season.
Sando: Terron Armstead, LT, Saints. Armstead is one of the more talented left tackles, but ESPN had him as only the 21st-rated offensive lineman in its recent #NFLRank project. Armstead did not crack the top 100 overall. He's better than that already and should emerge as a top-tier left tackle (health permitting) in 2016.
Schatz: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin led all wide receivers with at least 50 targets last season in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (value per play) and was second (behind Antonio Brown) in DYAR (total value). He also led all receivers by catching 76 percent of intended passes. This was not a one-year fluke; Baldwin ranked second among receivers in DVOA in 2013.
Yates: Golden Tate, WR, Lions. Exceptional at the point of catch and tough as nails, Tate is so fun to watch. There's going to be a ton of work coming his way this season with Calvin Johnson no longer in Detroit.
Who's the best defensive player no one's talking about?
Bowen: Darius Slay, CB, Lions. Slay is a legit top-tier cornerback in the league. He has length, smooth footwork and the ability to play the ball in the air.
Clayton: Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots. He's one of the best coverage linebackers in football and stands to get a monster contract from the Patriots.
Sando: Cliff Avril, DE, Seahawks. Avril is quieter than high-profile defensive teammates. Is he less valuable? Tom Brady went from floundering to lighting up the scoreboard once an injury forced Avril from the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That was not coincidental.
Schatz: Mark Barron, LB, Rams. Like Deone Bucannon of the Cardinals, Barron is a nominal safety who actually plays linebacker, but he has gotten a lot less hype in the recent deluge of articles about the rise of hybrid players. But the move to linebacker arguably fit him even better than Bucannon, because Barron never lived up to his potential as a defensive back. Last season, he had 35 defeats (combining tackles for loss, turnovers and plays to stop conversions on third or fourth down). That tied Lavonte David for second in the league behind J.J. Watt.
Yates: Everson Griffen, DE, Vikings. A foundation piece of the Minnesota defense, Griffen is an outstanding rusher who can dominate off the edge. He is physical and explosive, and he can close quickly on quarterbacks.
Who's the offensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. Fleener looks like a fit for Sean Payton's offense, but I question whether he can really produce monster numbers, given his inconsistent tape with the Colts.
Clayton: Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills. Watkins was supposed to be the best from the great receiver class of 2014, but he has been fighting injuries over the past two years. He has yet to eclipse 65 catches in a season. He has the talent to haul in 80-plus receptions, but we haven't seen it yet.
Sando: Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars. The hype for Bortles, and even Derek Carr, has gotten a little out of hand. These are promising young players, not guaranteed stars. They were 28th (Carr) and 29th (Bortles) out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over the second half of last season. Let's not anoint just yet.
Schatz: Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins. Foster is now 30, and he hasn't played a full season in three years. The Dolphins would be better off seeing whether or not Jay Ajayi can be a starting running back.
Yates: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. He has all the physical tools, and the offense in New Orleans has been prolific for tight ends. He needs to put it all together after an underwhelming tenure in Indianapolis.
Who's the defensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Giants: Jenkins is a playmaker, an aggressive cornerback who won't hesitate to break on the ball. But the Giants also paid a hefty premium (five years, $62.5 million) for a defensive back who sits on routes and takes too many risks in coverage.
Clayton: Damon Harrison, DT, Giants. "Snacks" is a great run-stopper, but he needs to show some presence on passing downs to justify being paid about $9 million a year.
Sando: Josh Norman, CB, Redskins. Norman has made himself into a very good corner, but the defensive infrastructure he enjoyed in Carolina did not follow him to Washington. Norman will have to be the NFL's best corner to live up to his contract.
Schatz: Malik Jackson, DT Jaguars. Jackson certainly can be a very good interior pass-rusher. He was a useful player for Denver last season. And the Jaguars had cap room to spend this offseason. But the problem with Jackson's $14.25 million-per-year contract is that he has to be one of the top two or three defensive tackles in the league every season to be worth the money. That's a tough task for a guy who only has 14 sacks in four NFL seasons so far.
Yates: Malik Jackson, DT, Jaguars. Jackson is an excellent player, but there is a level of expectation that comes with being one of the highest paid players in the game. Jacksonville needs him to be outstanding on a snap-by-snap basis.
Name your most overrated team.
Bowen: Cowboys. I know Ezekiel Elliott can be a star behind that offensive line. But I'm not sure that'll be enough to win the wide-open NFC East with Tony Romo starting the season on the shelf and a defense that looks suspect. Slow down on the hype here.
Clayton: Cowboys. They go from Romo to rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback until Romo's back heals. The defense lacks pass rush and the ability to force turnovers.
Sando: Steelers. Martavis Bryant is out for the season. Le'Veon Bell is suspended and coming off a difficult injury. Ladarius Green is on the PUP list. Ben Roethlisberger is 34 and missed four games last season. This is a really good team, but with the Bengals still strong and the Ravens likely to bounce back, I'm less willing than some to pencil in Pittsburgh for the Super Bowl.
Schatz: Broncos. The Ravens' defense was not as good in 2001 as it was in 2000. The Buccaneers' defense was not as good in 2003 as it was in 2002. The Bears' defense was not as good in 2007 as it was in 2006. The Seahawks' defense was not as good in 2014 as it was in 2013. So why do so many people think the Broncos' defense will be even better in 2016 than it was in 2015? Denver has some amazing defensive players, but so did those other historically great units.
Yates: Cowboys. Romo's injury has gotten the majority of the attention of late -- and that's understandable. But don't forget, this team also has some notable holes on defense. Who is going to rush the passer to start the season? How much will the 10-game absence of Rolando McClain impact the second level of the defense?
What about your most underrated team?
Bowen: Chiefs. With an efficient passing game, the ability to run the ball and a nasty defense, the Chiefs can win the AFC West. And they can also make a deep run into the playoffs.
Clayton: Jaguars. Jacksonville might be a year from being a playoff team, but they have the makings of a good offense and they are loading up on defense.
Sando: Vikings. We unanimously picked the Packers to win the NFC North even before the news broke on Teddy Bridgewater's injury. I was going to pick Minnesota as my underrated team when Bridgewater was healthy and see no reason to change now. This team can run be good enough in the running game and on defense to stay respectable.
Schatz: Chargers. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The offensive line should be better than the past couple of injury-riddled seasons. Keenan Allen is healthy and Melvin Gordon is likely to improve in his second season. And the defense has some young, up-and-coming talent, such as CB Jason Verrett and DE Joey Bosa.
Yates: Washington. A surprise playoff team last season, Washington has an offense that is peppered with talent and features what should be a better offensive line. Defensively, generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks is key.
Which rookie landed in the best spot?
Bowen: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott's vision, burst and ability to run through contact is an ideal fit for the Cowboys' zone scheme. Find daylight and go. He's going to produce behind that O-line.
Clayton: Paxton Lynch, QB, Broncos. Lynch found a perfect home with one of the league's best franchises and a coach (Gary Kubiak) whose philosophies mesh with his skill set. While Lynch could play his way onto the field this year, the Broncos aren't planning to rush him.
Sando: Jack Conklin, OT, Titans. The run-oriented Titans want to mash opponents into the ground. Conklin did that more impressively than anyone in college football last season. Great fit, great opportunity, very low risk of busting.
Schatz: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. It's fun to be counterintuitive, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the best one. Elliott was probably the best pure runner in the draft, and he gets to play behind the best offensive line. Dallas doesn't have an offense built around the running back as a receiving threat, another reason it's a great fit: Elliott is more Adrian Peterson and less Le'Veon Bell.
Yates: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. This is a perfect fit for Elliott, a do-everything running back who should challenge for 300 (or more) touches this season. Elliott brings a broad skill set to the table and now works behind the best offensive line in football. Watch out.
Which first-rounder will struggle?
Bowen: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. I like Treadwell's size and catch radius. But can he separate versus defensive backs consistently as a rookie? Treadwell is still raw as a route runner. It could take some time for the Ole Miss product to develop in a pro system, especially without Bridgewater at QB.
Clayton: Leonard Floyd, LB, Bears. Floyd has two issues: He's light and he has to learn a complicated scheme. Floyd will end up being a great pick for the Bears because he has speed and pass rush ability, but the first year will be rough.
Sando: Jared Goff, QB, Rams. Goff has already been banged up a couple times during the preseason. He's going to a team with unproven offensive coaching, modest weaponry and a veteran starter who might not be able to buy much time. The schedule doesn't help, either.
Schatz: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. Treadwell came out as just the fifth-best receiver prospect in the draft, according to our Playmaker Score system. His college yards per reception numbers were really low for a first-round wide receiver. But even acknowledging that, I'm a bit stunned at how low he seems to be on the Vikings' depth chart entering the season. If you're a first-round pick who can't get ahead of Adam Thielen, there's a problem.
Yates: Eli Apple, CB, Giants. I think Apple is going to be a very good pro in time, but snaps might be hard to come by early. With Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as perimeter starters plus veteran Leon Hall added for depth, Apple may not have an obvious immediate role.
Give us a late-rounder who will surpass expectations.
Bowen: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. The fifth-round pick out of UMass has already developed chemistry working with QB Marcus Mariota in the preseason. Sharpe has a long frame, a nice catch radius, and is a much better route runner than I expected.
Clayton: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Off-the-field issues forced him to drop to the fifth round. Hill can be electric with his raw speed and athleticism, particularly on special teams.
Sando: Zack Sanchez, CB, Panthers. A fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma, Sanchez could fill the nickel role for a talented defense. The Panthers have schematic consistency on defense and seem adept at developing players on that side of the ball.
Schatz: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. I think Sharpe will actually fall short of the expectations some Titans fans may have for him, but he certainly will far surpass the typical expectations for a fifth-round wideout. Just the fact that a low-round pick climbed to the top of the depth chart by the end of OTAs is itself a huge positive indicator for Sharpe's future in the league.
Yates: Blake Martinez, LB, Packers. The Packers are expected to utilize Clay Matthews back at his natural position of outside linebacker after shifting him inside to fill a major defensive need last season. Martinez has been working with the starters for much of the offseason and could be a 16-game starter this season. Not bad for a fourth-round pick.
Who's the one rookie to own in fantasy besides Ezekiel Elliott?
Bowen: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. Thomas brings matchup ability to the Saints' offense. He has the size to go up and get the ball, and the speed to get down the field. Look for QB Drew Brees to target the rookie often on the inside seam route.
Clayton: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns. Coleman stands out as being the best receiver on the Browns, having picked up the offense quickly. QB Robert Griffin III will be looking for him early and often.
Sando: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. He's the only rookie I drafted in my own friendly neighborhood fantasy league. The Saints put up big numbers offensively every year. Thomas should get ample opportunities.
Schatz: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Consider the odds that Victor Cruz will make it through a full season healthy. Now consider the odds that Cruz is anything close to the amazing player he was before losing two years to injuries. I like Cleveland's Corey Coleman and Houston's Will Fuller better as players, but they play in run-oriented offenses with lesser quarterbacks.
Yates: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Value in fantasy derives from both skill and opportunity. Shepard is a precision route runner who has wowed for much of the offseason. Combine that with the chance to be the No. 2 pass-catcher in a pass-heavy offense, and Shepard should be busy each and every Sunday.
Who's an undrafted player to watch?
Bowen: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. Cash can play a hybrid role for the Panthers in the defensive sub-packages. Think of the former Duke safety as a nickel linebacker with the matchup ability to cover TEs and the natural instincts to finish plays. He should be a star on special teams, too.
Clayton: Trevone Boykin, QB, Seahawks. Next to Dak Prescott, Boykin has been the most impressive rookie quarterback this preseason. He has led fourth-quarter comebacks as the Seahawks' backup quarterback. The only thing holding him back is Russell Wilson's durability.
Sando: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. There's a reason Carolina gave Cash an unusually large signing bonus for an undrafted player. Cash has added 15-20 pounds and has drawn praise from coaches for his ability to find the football.
Schatz: James Cowser, DE, Raiders. Cowser was the favorite sleeper of our SackSEER projection system for edge rushers. He holds the FCS career record with 42.5 sacks at Southern Utah and had the best 3-cone time of any edge rusher at the combine, a strong indicator of future NFL success. Cowser turns 26 at the start of the season (a Mormon mission delayed his NFL career), so there isn't much room for future development. But Cowser should be pretty useful as is, keeping the Raiders' pass rush strong when Khalil Mack or Mario Edwards Jr. needs a snap or two off.
Yates: Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders. While Latavius Murray is the starter and DeAndre Washington the presumptive backup, Richard -- who has dealt with a recent knee injury -- has made a fast and strong impression in training camp. He's small in stature (just 5-foot-8), but offers value, even if it isn't as a starter.
ESPN NFL Insiders
You want NFL predictions? We've got NFL predictions. Our panel of Insiders -- Matt Bowen, John Clayton, Mike Sando, Aaron Schatz and Field Yates -- peered into the future on a number of topics. MVP picks. Playoff teams. Breakout players. Rookie flops. Guys who will be overhyped. Teams who are being overlooked. The Super Bowl winner. And so much more.
Read through the full file or use to links below to hop around to the subject of your choosing.
Who's your MVP pick?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. For as many issues as Green Bay had on offense last season, Rodgers still threw for 3,821 yards with 31 touchdown passes. With wide receiver Jordy Nelson back, and a more consistent attack on the ground, Rodgers will be in a position to light up opposing defenses again. And that's trouble for the rest of the league.
John Clayton, senior NFL writer: Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Steelers. If Big Ben can maintain a 30-point-per-game offense and the Steelers improve on defense, they have a great chance to make a Super Bowl run.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. He tossed 25 touchdown passes with two interceptions over the second half of last season as Seattle shifted toward a quick passing game. This is the year any remaining skeptics realize Wilson is much more than adequate as a pocket passer.
Aaron Schatz, editor-in-chief of Football Outsiders: Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks. Football Outsiders projections have Arizona and Seattle as the two best teams in the league, and I think there's a (correct) public perception that Carson Palmer's big numbers are helped along by his teammates more than Wilson's big numbers. Wilson doesn't have to do what he did in the second half of 2015 -- something between that and the first half of last season would likely be MVP-worthy if Seattle goes 12-4 or better. I don't expect a Newton repeat because I don't think Carolina will be one of the NFC's top seeds, although that won't be because Newton plays any worse.
Field Yates, NFL Insider: Cam Newton, QB, Panthers. It's scary to think that Newton accounted for 45 touchdowns last season when remembering his top receiver missed the entire season and he started slowly -- he had 15 total touchdowns in the first seven games, compared to 30 in the final nine games. Newton's ceiling is unparalleled.
Give us an off-the-radar/dark-horse MVP pick.
Bowen: Derek Carr, QB, Raiders. Carr tossed 32 touchdown passes last season and threw for almost 4,000 yards. Not bad for a second-year pro. The Raiders made upgrades on the offensive line, and Carr has enough weapons around him -- including stud wide receiver Amari Cooper -- to produce big numbers again in 2016. If Carr takes the Raiders to the postseason, he could be in the mix.
Clayton: Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers. Lacy has the powerful running style to put together a Marshawn Lynch-like season. He is in great shape, and it's a contract year. A 1,300-yard season could place him among the league's leading rushers.
Sando: Matthew Stafford, QB, Lions. By darkhorse, we're not talking about my second or third choice. We're talking about someone off the radar. Stafford tossed 19 touchdown passes with two interceptions once Jim Bob Cooter took over the Lions' offense last season. Unfortunately for him, a rugged NFC North could keep Detroit on the outside looking in.
Schatz: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Imagine the narrative here: Elliott leads the NFL in carries and rushing yards as a rookie, and the Cowboys win the NFC East despite playing the first half of the season without Tony Romo. The true heroes would be the offensive linemen, but MVP voters don't give the award to blockers. They give the award to the guys who get the yardage.
Yates: David Johnson, RB, Cardinals. There isn't a hole in Johnson's game. He's an adept runner between the tackles with the burst to get to the edge and is one of the league's finest pass-catching backs. If Arizona gives him 250-plus touches this season, he could be in the MVP mix.
Which player will be the biggest flop in 2016?
Bowen: Brock Osweiler, QB Texans. The Texans added some legitimate speed and playmaking ability to the offense, but is that enough to facilitate production from Osweiler? His tape is average. The Texans took a big risk here throwing a ton of money at an unproven QB who is still developing.
Clayton: Robert Griffin III, QB, Browns. Hue Jackson could be the right coach to turn around Griffin's career, and the quarterback is working hard to fix his game. But it is too much to think he can turn around a franchise, too. The Browns don't have the talent around him to succeed this season.
Sando: Sam Bradford, QB, Eagles. Bradford played well enough late last season to generate some optimism, but it's tough to bank on an oft-injured QB who has never played consistently well over the course of a season. The Eagles would not have signed Chase Daniel and drafted Carson Wentz if they disagreed.
Schatz: Christian Hackenberg, QB, Jets. Yes, I know he probably won't play this season, but isn't that part of the problem? The Jets wasted a second-round pick on a quarterback with terrible college numbers who is currently fourth on their depth chart. The Jets say they are trying to fix his passing mechanics. Did they not watch the same film as all the online draftniks and notice that this was kind of an issue? Also, I didn't want to pile on Brock Osweiler with some sort of "5-for-5" sweep of this category.
Yates: Brock Osweiler, QB, Texans. This comes down to a few factors. Osweiler will always be measured against his lucrative contract ($72 million over four seasons), and Houston might not be angling to put a huge workload on his shoulders in comparison to what other quarterbacks are asked to do. The Texans ran the football more than all but four teams last season and will likely lean heavily on the running game this season. And, frankly, there's still a lot to learn about Osweiler as a player who has minimal starting experience.
Who's your breakout player of the year?
Bowen: Kevin White, WR Bears. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, White has matchup ability and the 4.3 speed to put stress on opposing secondaries. White is still developing at the position after missing the entire 2015 season, but the Bears can accelerate his learning curve by putting the ball in his hands. He's a freakish talent.
Clayton: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. He might not throw a lot of passes in coach Mike Mularkey's run-oriented offense, but Mariota will continue to evolve as a great game manager and running threat. He will be efficient.
Sando: Dante Fowler Jr., DE, Jaguars. While Jacksonville spent big for Malik Jackson this offseason, Fowler has the talent to emerge as its best defensive player. Was there a more talented and physically violent defender selected in the 2015 draft?
Schatz: Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. Miller has a career average of 4.6 yards per carry and is still only 25. When he finishes in the top five in rushing this season -- and adds another 40 or so receptions -- we're all going to wonder why the Dolphins completely left him out of the game plan in certain weeks.
Yates: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. It's no mystery that Mariota offers upside -- he flashed it last season as a rookie. Now with a better ground game and bulked-up offensive line, Mariota should make significant strides toward superstardom this season.
Which player has the best chance to dethrone J.J. Watt as the NFL's best defender?
Bowen: Khalil Mack, OLB, Raiders. Mack has the skill set to develop into the league's top edge rusher. Given his power, speed and technique, Mack's ceiling is off the charts. He had 15 sacks last season. Beast.
Clayton: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Some believe he's close to achieving this honor. He has been a dominating defender for the Rams.
Sando: Robert Quinn, DE, Rams. Quinn exited the spotlight while missing eight games to injury last season. While Khalil Mack would be the safe choice here, let's not forget the 26-year-old Quinn is just two seasons removed from a 19-sack season.
Schatz: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. Watt is not going anywhere for a while, but Donald is the second-best defensive player in the game right now. Last season, he had 11 sacks, and we tracked him with 27 QB hits (not including sacks) and 31 hurries. Donald led all defensive tackles in sacks and had 10 more QB hits than any other player at his position. Eagles defender Fletcher Cox (34 hurries as a 3-4 end) was the only interior lineman with more hurries.
Yates: Aaron Donald, DT, Rams. It takes rare production from an interior defensive lineman to merit consideration for a major award, but Donald presents exactly that. He has 20.0 sacks in just two pro seasons. He's as explosive as any lineman in football with play-destroying ability on every snap.
Who will win the NFC East?
Bowen: Giants. They have upgrades on the defensive side of the ball and more weapons on offense for QB Eli Manning. The Giants will make a strong December run to win a division that's wide open.
Clayton: Redskins. They are the most complete team in the division. Kirk Cousins will continue to grow with Jay Gruden, and the defense should improve.
Sando: Redskins. The Giants have spent out of desperation to help a rookie head coach. The Eagles' QB situation is too fluid. The Cowboys are breaking in a new QB. Washington could be the safest bet.
Schatz: Giants. I've been driving the Dallas bandwagon all offseason, but even if Dak Prescott is better than the usual fourth-round rookie, he's not going to be as good as Tony Romo. Combine that with the pass-rush questions and Rolando McClain's nonsense, and it seems likely that the Giants and their rebuilt defense can edge past the Cowboys and take the division. It would help if they don't lead the league in injuries for once.
Yates: Giants. The defensive line was a focus in free agency, which should help propel this team back to double-digit wins.
Who will win the NFC North?
Bowen: Packers. Aaron Rodgers, Jordy Nelson and Eddie Lacy will produce numbers, but it's Dom Capers' versatile defense that allows Green Bay to win the North.
Clayton: Packers. With Teddy Bridgewater out for the season in Minnesota, the Packers should cruise to the division title with no problem.
Sando: Packers. Have we forgotten the Vikings won this division last season? Apparently so. I see Green Bay earning 11-12 victories with Nelson back. That should be enough.
Schatz: Packers. Nelson is back, and I like Rodgers and Lacy to rebound. The defense has been very inconsistent from year to year under Dom Capers, but after Bridgewater's injury, that probably won't matter.
Yates: Packers. It's going to be a close race with Minnesota -- yes, even after the Teddy Bridgewater injury -- but Nelson will help resurrect what was a stuck-in-the-mud offense last season.
Who will win the NFC South?
Bowen: Panthers. Opposing teams still won't have an answer for Cam Newton, and the Panthers' defensive front-seven will continue to create chaos in the South. It's the Panthers -- again.
Clayton: Panthers. The Falcons might be the Panthers' biggest challengers, but Carolina has the best roster. Plus, Newton continues to grow as the best young quarterback in the league.
Sando: Panthers. The NFC South is stacked at QB with Jameis Winston's emergence, but Carolina is the only team from the division with a defense worth trusting.
Schatz: Panthers. Their defense will not be as good as it was last year, but it will be far superior to the other three defenses in the division. Plus, there's Cam Newton.
Yates: Panthers. I think there's a decent chance that Carolina regresses by two or three wins this season, but the Panthers are still a superior overall team to last year's Super Bowl runner-up squad. This roster is loaded.
Who will win the NFC West?
Bowen: Seahawks. They have too much speed on defense. The Seahawks will suffocate opposing teams this year with playmakers on all three levels of the field.
Clayton: Seahawks. Seattle added a draft class loaded with great players and great leaders. Plus, Russell Wilson will continue his rise into the top tier of quarterbacks.
Sando: Seahawks. Seattle must get the ball out quickly to help its offensive tackles. The Seahawks figured that out last season. Bradley Sowell has played better than anyone could have expected at left tackle, which is a plus.
Schatz: Cardinals. I still think the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit will make the difference between the Cardinals and Seahawks, who look like the two best and most well-rounded teams in the NFL. Because of Tom Brady's four-game suspension, Arizona gets to play Jimmy Garoppolo at home, while the Seahawks will face Brady on the road later in the season.
Yates: Seahawks. It's possible the two best teams in this conference are in the NFC West, but I'll give Seattle a slight edge over Arizona. The offense will soar to complement this terrific defense.
Who will win the AFC East?
Bowen: Patriots. After navigating the first four weeks of the season without Brady, the Patriots will continue their dominance of the East. It's another division title for Belichick.
Clayton: Patriots. As long as Brady and Belichick are together, the division belongs to the Patriots. The Pats will go 2-2 or better during the Brady suspension and come out with 11 wins.
Sando: Patriots. Having three home games during Brady's absence could help the Patriots match or even improve upon their 12-victory total from last season. Playing the NFL's easiest schedule of opposing QBs (as measured by our QB Tiers survey) helps.
Schatz: Patriots. They have a multifaceted defense that will counter opponents' strength, and they get 12 weeks of Tom Brady. Plus, the Jets will regress, the Bills are a mess, and the Dolphins are starting over.
Yates: Patriots. Although the Patriots will no doubt miss Brady during his four-game suspension, the depth and talent of this roster will be revealed during that time.
Who will win the AFC North?
Bowen: Steelers. Concerns in the secondary will be covered up by Ben Roethlisberger and one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh will score -- often.
Clayton: Steelers. Despite suspensions and injuries, the Steelers have an offense that can score 30 points a game. Plus, the defense will be better in Keith Butler's second year as defensive coordinator.
Sando: Bengals. It's easy to underestimate Cincy based on their postseason mishaps, but only the Patriots, Packers, Broncos and Seahawks have won more regular-season games in the past five seasons.
Schatz: Steelers. With Roethlisberger healthy, this is the best offense in the NFL right now.
Yates: Steelers. Even without Le'Veon Bell for three games and Martavis Bryant for the full season, Pittsburgh figures to be an offensive juggernaut.
Who will win the AFC South?
Bowen: Texans. I have questions about Brock Osweiler, but the Texans can facilitate some of his development with the new speed on offense and the All-Pro ability of DeAndre Hopkins. They play some good defense down in Houston too.
Clayton: Texans. Bill O'Brien gets the most out of his quarterbacks, so Osweiler should be effective. The Texans have the best defense in the division, and they are the most complete team in the AFC South.
Sando: Texans. It's tough picking against a healthy Andrew Luck in the AFC South, but the Texans have the more talented roster. They also should have a coaching edge. O'Brien could become one of the best.
Schatz: Colts. Honestly, just flip a coin -- or a series of coins. Football Outsiders' projections give all four teams in the South a between 25 and 40 percent chance of making the playoffs, rarely via wild card. But the Colts come out on top most often, mostly because they have the best quarterback -- if Andrew Luck rebounds as expected.
Yates: Texans. The offensive line is a concern to begin the season, but the defense has the potential to be dominant.
Who will win the AFC West?
Bowen: Broncos. Can Trevor Siemian manage Gary Kubiak's system? I think he can. That could be enough, given the Broncos' top-tier defense. I'll take Denver to win the West again behind Von Miller and a secondary that can lock down opposing wide receivers.
Clayton: Broncos. Denver still has one of the most talented defenses in the league. As long as Siemian doesn't turn the ball over a ton, the Broncos should stay slightly ahead of Kansas City and Oakland.
Sando: Chiefs. The Broncos are the Super Bowl champs, and the Raiders have become media darlings, which makes Kansas City an AFC West afterthought. All the Chiefs do is play tough defense and smart offense under one of the game's best head coaches. They have quietly improved the supporting cast around quarterback Alex Smith.
Schatz: Chiefs. This offense is a lot better than most people realize, despite the limitations of the quarterback, and offense is simply more consistent and predictable than defense. It's rare for a defense to play at an all-time great level for two seasons in a row, and if Denver's defense declines to a top-five unit in the league, then the Broncos are just the Rams or Texans. Oakland isn't ready yet.
Yates: Broncos. The formula will be the same: Win with defense and a running game. Expect this division to be tight.
Who will be the four wild-card teams?
Bowen
NFC: Cardinals/Lions. Expect Carson Palmer to put up MVP numbers again in Bruce Arians' vertical offense, while a healthy Tyrann Mathieu leads the Cards' D to a playoff ticket. With the injury to Bridgewater, the door is open for the final wild-card spot in the NFC. Matthew Stafford played his best football during the second-half of the past season under new OC Jim Bob Cooter, and the defense has talent.
AFC: Raiders/Bengals. Derek Carr's production meshes with an Oakland defense that can rush the passer. It doesn't have to be complicated. The Raiders are back and will edge K.C. for the final wild-card spot. In Cincinnati, the loss of Hue Jackson could impact the production on offense, but the Bengals have the defense to control tempo. Cincy will win some ugly games to get in the dance.
Clayton
NFC: Falcons/Cardinals. Atlanta has the offensive weapons to bounce back from the sluggish way it ended the 2015 season. The Cardinals and Seahawks are the most talented teams in football. Even if Arizona isn't able to take the West from Seattle like it did last year, the Cardinals are good enough to win 10 games and make the playoffs.
AFC: Bengals/Chiefs. The Bengals' roster is loaded, and Andy Dalton is that much more of a leader. In K.C., Andy Reid has a good defense, and Alex Smith can manage the passing game while the running game continues to be a force.
Sando
NFC: Cardinals/Lions. The Cardinals shouldn't drop off much if Carson Palmer can rebound from a rough postseason, but Arizona will have a hard time matching the 140 points off turnovers that the team collected last season. That was up from an 87.5 average over Bruce Arians' first two seasons with the team. Bridgewater's injury opens the door for another NFC North team to grab the conference's second wild-card spot. The Lions have enough talent to make that happen if Matthew Stafford continues to flourish in Jim Bob Cooter's offense.
AFC: Broncos/Steelers. Denver plays the NFL's toughest schedule of opposing quarterbacks, according to input from 42 league insiders for ESPN's annual QB Tiers survey. The Broncos also lost some talent on defense. That's why I see them settling for a wild card. Issues surrounding Martavis Bryant, Le'Veon Bell and Ladarius Green make me think Ben Roethlisberger will again have to carry too much of the load. He can do it well enough to keep Pittsburgh in the mix.
Schatz
NFC: Seahawks/Lions. Barring a catastrophic injury, it's hard to see the Seahawks missing the playoffs, even if they don't win the West. The Bridgewater injury turns the race for the second NFC wild-card into a hurricane of question marks. I give the Lions a slight edge over other teams because the defense should rebound, and we project them to have one of the league's five easiest schedules.
AFC: Bengals/Ravens. The whole AFC West will be in the wild-card mix, but I like the AFC North teams. It blows my mind how many fans seem to write off the Ravens as if they are some sort of expansion team that will again be saddled with December's injury-riddled roster. Baltimore is back to the team that went 10-6 in 2014. Their secret advantage: quality and consistency on special teams that only New England can match.
Yates
NFC: Vikings/Cardinals. The NFC figures to be the stronger conference, top to bottom. Arizona could easily win the West this year, and Minnesota could have been in the mix in the North prior to Bridgewater's injury.
AFC: Bengals/Chiefs. Both of these teams have question marks worth monitoring. The Chiefs' pass rush will fall off a bit while Justin Houston recovers from ACL surgery, and the Bengals must fill the holes in the passing game. But I'm still picking Cincy and K.C. to make return trips to the postseason.
Who's your Super Bowl pick?
Bowen: Seahawks over Steelers. I always roll with defense. And the Seahawks have ridiculous talent at all three levels of the field. Pete Carroll's club locks down the Steelers on the game's biggest stage to grab another ring.
Clayton: Seahawks over Steelers. What Matt said.
Sando: Seahawks over Patriots. Wilson scores the winning TD with a QB keeper on second-and-goal from the 1 in the final minute.
Schatz: Cardinals over Steelers. Bruce Arians' revenge. U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit has given Arizona and Pittsburgh an advantage over Seattle and New England when it comes to getting the No. 1 seed in each conference, and that's where I'm making my pick.
Yates: Cardinals over Patriots. A pair of teams catalyzed by veteran quarterbacks will bookend their seasons against each other with a Week 1 and Super Bowl matchup. Arizona will hoist the Lombardi trophy.
Who's the best offensive player no one is talking about?
Bowen: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin caught 14 touchdowns in 2015. And he took over the league during the second half of the season. That doesn't happen by mistake.
Clayton: Brandin Cooks, WR, Saints. Remember: Cooks plays in an offense that can gain 5,000 yards through the air. He will easily exceed his 1,138 receiving yards from last season.
Sando: Terron Armstead, LT, Saints. Armstead is one of the more talented left tackles, but ESPN had him as only the 21st-rated offensive lineman in its recent #NFLRank project. Armstead did not crack the top 100 overall. He's better than that already and should emerge as a top-tier left tackle (health permitting) in 2016.
Schatz: Doug Baldwin, WR, Seahawks. Baldwin led all wide receivers with at least 50 targets last season in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric (value per play) and was second (behind Antonio Brown) in DYAR (total value). He also led all receivers by catching 76 percent of intended passes. This was not a one-year fluke; Baldwin ranked second among receivers in DVOA in 2013.
Yates: Golden Tate, WR, Lions. Exceptional at the point of catch and tough as nails, Tate is so fun to watch. There's going to be a ton of work coming his way this season with Calvin Johnson no longer in Detroit.
Who's the best defensive player no one's talking about?
Bowen: Darius Slay, CB, Lions. Slay is a legit top-tier cornerback in the league. He has length, smooth footwork and the ability to play the ball in the air.
Clayton: Jamie Collins, LB, Patriots. He's one of the best coverage linebackers in football and stands to get a monster contract from the Patriots.
Sando: Cliff Avril, DE, Seahawks. Avril is quieter than high-profile defensive teammates. Is he less valuable? Tom Brady went from floundering to lighting up the scoreboard once an injury forced Avril from the Super Bowl a couple of years ago. That was not coincidental.
Schatz: Mark Barron, LB, Rams. Like Deone Bucannon of the Cardinals, Barron is a nominal safety who actually plays linebacker, but he has gotten a lot less hype in the recent deluge of articles about the rise of hybrid players. But the move to linebacker arguably fit him even better than Bucannon, because Barron never lived up to his potential as a defensive back. Last season, he had 35 defeats (combining tackles for loss, turnovers and plays to stop conversions on third or fourth down). That tied Lavonte David for second in the league behind J.J. Watt.
Yates: Everson Griffen, DE, Vikings. A foundation piece of the Minnesota defense, Griffen is an outstanding rusher who can dominate off the edge. He is physical and explosive, and he can close quickly on quarterbacks.
Who's the offensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. Fleener looks like a fit for Sean Payton's offense, but I question whether he can really produce monster numbers, given his inconsistent tape with the Colts.
Clayton: Sammy Watkins, WR, Bills. Watkins was supposed to be the best from the great receiver class of 2014, but he has been fighting injuries over the past two years. He has yet to eclipse 65 catches in a season. He has the talent to haul in 80-plus receptions, but we haven't seen it yet.
Sando: Blake Bortles, QB, Jaguars. The hype for Bortles, and even Derek Carr, has gotten a little out of hand. These are promising young players, not guaranteed stars. They were 28th (Carr) and 29th (Bortles) out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over the second half of last season. Let's not anoint just yet.
Schatz: Arian Foster, RB, Dolphins. Foster is now 30, and he hasn't played a full season in three years. The Dolphins would be better off seeing whether or not Jay Ajayi can be a starting running back.
Yates: Coby Fleener, TE, Saints. He has all the physical tools, and the offense in New Orleans has been prolific for tight ends. He needs to put it all together after an underwhelming tenure in Indianapolis.
Who's the defensive player who won't live up to the hype?
Bowen: Janoris Jenkins, CB, Giants: Jenkins is a playmaker, an aggressive cornerback who won't hesitate to break on the ball. But the Giants also paid a hefty premium (five years, $62.5 million) for a defensive back who sits on routes and takes too many risks in coverage.
Clayton: Damon Harrison, DT, Giants. "Snacks" is a great run-stopper, but he needs to show some presence on passing downs to justify being paid about $9 million a year.
Sando: Josh Norman, CB, Redskins. Norman has made himself into a very good corner, but the defensive infrastructure he enjoyed in Carolina did not follow him to Washington. Norman will have to be the NFL's best corner to live up to his contract.
Schatz: Malik Jackson, DT Jaguars. Jackson certainly can be a very good interior pass-rusher. He was a useful player for Denver last season. And the Jaguars had cap room to spend this offseason. But the problem with Jackson's $14.25 million-per-year contract is that he has to be one of the top two or three defensive tackles in the league every season to be worth the money. That's a tough task for a guy who only has 14 sacks in four NFL seasons so far.
Yates: Malik Jackson, DT, Jaguars. Jackson is an excellent player, but there is a level of expectation that comes with being one of the highest paid players in the game. Jacksonville needs him to be outstanding on a snap-by-snap basis.
Name your most overrated team.
Bowen: Cowboys. I know Ezekiel Elliott can be a star behind that offensive line. But I'm not sure that'll be enough to win the wide-open NFC East with Tony Romo starting the season on the shelf and a defense that looks suspect. Slow down on the hype here.
Clayton: Cowboys. They go from Romo to rookie Dak Prescott at quarterback until Romo's back heals. The defense lacks pass rush and the ability to force turnovers.
Sando: Steelers. Martavis Bryant is out for the season. Le'Veon Bell is suspended and coming off a difficult injury. Ladarius Green is on the PUP list. Ben Roethlisberger is 34 and missed four games last season. This is a really good team, but with the Bengals still strong and the Ravens likely to bounce back, I'm less willing than some to pencil in Pittsburgh for the Super Bowl.
Schatz: Broncos. The Ravens' defense was not as good in 2001 as it was in 2000. The Buccaneers' defense was not as good in 2003 as it was in 2002. The Bears' defense was not as good in 2007 as it was in 2006. The Seahawks' defense was not as good in 2014 as it was in 2013. So why do so many people think the Broncos' defense will be even better in 2016 than it was in 2015? Denver has some amazing defensive players, but so did those other historically great units.
Yates: Cowboys. Romo's injury has gotten the majority of the attention of late -- and that's understandable. But don't forget, this team also has some notable holes on defense. Who is going to rush the passer to start the season? How much will the 10-game absence of Rolando McClain impact the second level of the defense?
What about your most underrated team?
Bowen: Chiefs. With an efficient passing game, the ability to run the ball and a nasty defense, the Chiefs can win the AFC West. And they can also make a deep run into the playoffs.
Clayton: Jaguars. Jacksonville might be a year from being a playoff team, but they have the makings of a good offense and they are loading up on defense.
Sando: Vikings. We unanimously picked the Packers to win the NFC North even before the news broke on Teddy Bridgewater's injury. I was going to pick Minnesota as my underrated team when Bridgewater was healthy and see no reason to change now. This team can run be good enough in the running game and on defense to stay respectable.
Schatz: Chargers. Philip Rivers is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The offensive line should be better than the past couple of injury-riddled seasons. Keenan Allen is healthy and Melvin Gordon is likely to improve in his second season. And the defense has some young, up-and-coming talent, such as CB Jason Verrett and DE Joey Bosa.
Yates: Washington. A surprise playoff team last season, Washington has an offense that is peppered with talent and features what should be a better offensive line. Defensively, generating pressure against opposing quarterbacks is key.
Which rookie landed in the best spot?
Bowen: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. Elliott's vision, burst and ability to run through contact is an ideal fit for the Cowboys' zone scheme. Find daylight and go. He's going to produce behind that O-line.
Clayton: Paxton Lynch, QB, Broncos. Lynch found a perfect home with one of the league's best franchises and a coach (Gary Kubiak) whose philosophies mesh with his skill set. While Lynch could play his way onto the field this year, the Broncos aren't planning to rush him.
Sando: Jack Conklin, OT, Titans. The run-oriented Titans want to mash opponents into the ground. Conklin did that more impressively than anyone in college football last season. Great fit, great opportunity, very low risk of busting.
Schatz: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. It's fun to be counterintuitive, but sometimes the most obvious answer is the best one. Elliott was probably the best pure runner in the draft, and he gets to play behind the best offensive line. Dallas doesn't have an offense built around the running back as a receiving threat, another reason it's a great fit: Elliott is more Adrian Peterson and less Le'Veon Bell.
Yates: Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys. This is a perfect fit for Elliott, a do-everything running back who should challenge for 300 (or more) touches this season. Elliott brings a broad skill set to the table and now works behind the best offensive line in football. Watch out.
Which first-rounder will struggle?
Bowen: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. I like Treadwell's size and catch radius. But can he separate versus defensive backs consistently as a rookie? Treadwell is still raw as a route runner. It could take some time for the Ole Miss product to develop in a pro system, especially without Bridgewater at QB.
Clayton: Leonard Floyd, LB, Bears. Floyd has two issues: He's light and he has to learn a complicated scheme. Floyd will end up being a great pick for the Bears because he has speed and pass rush ability, but the first year will be rough.
Sando: Jared Goff, QB, Rams. Goff has already been banged up a couple times during the preseason. He's going to a team with unproven offensive coaching, modest weaponry and a veteran starter who might not be able to buy much time. The schedule doesn't help, either.
Schatz: Laquon Treadwell, WR, Vikings. Treadwell came out as just the fifth-best receiver prospect in the draft, according to our Playmaker Score system. His college yards per reception numbers were really low for a first-round wide receiver. But even acknowledging that, I'm a bit stunned at how low he seems to be on the Vikings' depth chart entering the season. If you're a first-round pick who can't get ahead of Adam Thielen, there's a problem.
Yates: Eli Apple, CB, Giants. I think Apple is going to be a very good pro in time, but snaps might be hard to come by early. With Janoris Jenkins and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie as perimeter starters plus veteran Leon Hall added for depth, Apple may not have an obvious immediate role.
Give us a late-rounder who will surpass expectations.
Bowen: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. The fifth-round pick out of UMass has already developed chemistry working with QB Marcus Mariota in the preseason. Sharpe has a long frame, a nice catch radius, and is a much better route runner than I expected.
Clayton: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. Off-the-field issues forced him to drop to the fifth round. Hill can be electric with his raw speed and athleticism, particularly on special teams.
Sando: Zack Sanchez, CB, Panthers. A fifth-round pick out of Oklahoma, Sanchez could fill the nickel role for a talented defense. The Panthers have schematic consistency on defense and seem adept at developing players on that side of the ball.
Schatz: Tajae Sharpe, WR, Titans. I think Sharpe will actually fall short of the expectations some Titans fans may have for him, but he certainly will far surpass the typical expectations for a fifth-round wideout. Just the fact that a low-round pick climbed to the top of the depth chart by the end of OTAs is itself a huge positive indicator for Sharpe's future in the league.
Yates: Blake Martinez, LB, Packers. The Packers are expected to utilize Clay Matthews back at his natural position of outside linebacker after shifting him inside to fill a major defensive need last season. Martinez has been working with the starters for much of the offseason and could be a 16-game starter this season. Not bad for a fourth-round pick.
Who's the one rookie to own in fantasy besides Ezekiel Elliott?
Bowen: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. Thomas brings matchup ability to the Saints' offense. He has the size to go up and get the ball, and the speed to get down the field. Look for QB Drew Brees to target the rookie often on the inside seam route.
Clayton: Corey Coleman, WR, Browns. Coleman stands out as being the best receiver on the Browns, having picked up the offense quickly. QB Robert Griffin III will be looking for him early and often.
Sando: Michael Thomas, WR, Saints. He's the only rookie I drafted in my own friendly neighborhood fantasy league. The Saints put up big numbers offensively every year. Thomas should get ample opportunities.
Schatz: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Consider the odds that Victor Cruz will make it through a full season healthy. Now consider the odds that Cruz is anything close to the amazing player he was before losing two years to injuries. I like Cleveland's Corey Coleman and Houston's Will Fuller better as players, but they play in run-oriented offenses with lesser quarterbacks.
Yates: Sterling Shepard, WR, Giants. Value in fantasy derives from both skill and opportunity. Shepard is a precision route runner who has wowed for much of the offseason. Combine that with the chance to be the No. 2 pass-catcher in a pass-heavy offense, and Shepard should be busy each and every Sunday.
Who's an undrafted player to watch?
Bowen: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. Cash can play a hybrid role for the Panthers in the defensive sub-packages. Think of the former Duke safety as a nickel linebacker with the matchup ability to cover TEs and the natural instincts to finish plays. He should be a star on special teams, too.
Clayton: Trevone Boykin, QB, Seahawks. Next to Dak Prescott, Boykin has been the most impressive rookie quarterback this preseason. He has led fourth-quarter comebacks as the Seahawks' backup quarterback. The only thing holding him back is Russell Wilson's durability.
Sando: Jeremy Cash, LB, Panthers. There's a reason Carolina gave Cash an unusually large signing bonus for an undrafted player. Cash has added 15-20 pounds and has drawn praise from coaches for his ability to find the football.
Schatz: James Cowser, DE, Raiders. Cowser was the favorite sleeper of our SackSEER projection system for edge rushers. He holds the FCS career record with 42.5 sacks at Southern Utah and had the best 3-cone time of any edge rusher at the combine, a strong indicator of future NFL success. Cowser turns 26 at the start of the season (a Mormon mission delayed his NFL career), so there isn't much room for future development. But Cowser should be pretty useful as is, keeping the Raiders' pass rush strong when Khalil Mack or Mario Edwards Jr. needs a snap or two off.
Yates: Jalen Richard, RB, Raiders. While Latavius Murray is the starter and DeAndre Washington the presumptive backup, Richard -- who has dealt with a recent knee injury -- has made a fast and strong impression in training camp. He's small in stature (just 5-foot-8), but offers value, even if it isn't as a starter.
