[h=1]How to bet every NFL season win total[/h]Mike ClayESPN Writer
ESPN INSIDER
What are the best NFL win total bets for every team this year? My projections help sort out who is most likely to go over or under their projected number.
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Teams are sorted by their projected divisional finish. 'Team' refers to each team's ranking relative to the league's 31 other teams. 'Schedule' is a ranking of each team's strength of schedule. The lower the number, the easier the slate. Each team's projected wins are shown, as well as, how many games I expect them to be favored in this season.
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
New England Patriots (O/U: 10.5)
Team: 2 | Schedule: 9 | Projected wins: 10.9 | Favored: 15
Tom Brady will sit out four games, but New England figures to be the favorite in Jimmy Garoppolo's home starts against Miami, Houston and Buffalo. Overall, the Patriots' schedule is one of the lightest in the league. Two of their toughest opponents -- Cincinnati and Seattle -- will visit Foxboro following Brady's return.
The Patriots already had one of the league's top offenses, but the additions ofMartellus Bennett, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell should only add to its efficiency. The defense added supporting contributors Chris Long, Barkevious Mingo and Shea McClellin to a unit that already included Jabaal Sheard, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and a loaded secondary. A stacked team with an easy schedule? The Patriots should push for 11-12 wins.
Advice: Over 10.5
New York Jets (O/U: 8)
Team: 12 | Schedule: 24 | Projected wins: 8.1 | Favored: 8
The Chan Gailey experiment seems to be working, as the Jets ranked sixth in the league in offensive touchdowns per game in his first season as the team's offensive coordinator. Ryan Fitzpatrick played above his head, so regression is a concern, but Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and a pair of quality backs in Matt Forte and Bilal Powell will help keep the offense afloat.
The defensive side of the ball is more of a concern. Muhammad Wilkerson,Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson are as good as it gets up front, but there are question marks at linebacker and behind 31-year-old Darrelle Revis in the secondary. It will be tough for this team to overcome a rough non-divisional slate that includes the Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Colts.
Advice: Push 8
Buffalo Bills (O/U: 8)
Team: 16 | Schedule: 27 | Projected wins: 8.0 | Favored: 9
The Bills appeared to be on the cusp of a playoff push, but the defense has imploded over the past few months. IK Enemkpali and rookieReggie Ragland are out for the season, while Shaq Lawson (shoulder) and Marcell Dareus (suspension) will both miss significant action.
Fortunately for Buffalo, the defense is still fairly stocked with talent and the offense should be even better than last season. Despite missing Tyrod Taylor in two games and having Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy for 11 full games each, the Bills offense ranked eighth in touchdowns in 2015. This has the looks of a .500 team.
Advice: Push 8
Miami Dolphins (O/U: 7)
Team: 30 | Schedule: 29 | Projected wins: 6.2 | Favored: 2
New head coach Adam Gase will have his hands full getting the most out of a weak roster that will need to deal with a very tough schedule in his debut season with the club. Ryan Tannehill hit a wall last year and it's very possible we've seen the 28-year-old's ceiling. On the plus side, Jarvis Landry,DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Leonte Carroo, Jordan Cameron and Arian Fosterprovide Tannehill with a quality and deep supporting cast.
The bigger issue is the defensive side of the ball where Miami will try to replaceBrent Grimes and Olivier Vernon with Byron Maxwell and Mario Williams. This is a very weak unit behind Ndamukong Suh and Reshad Jones. With trips to Seattle, New England and Cincinnati on the slate during Weeks 1-4, there's a very good chance the Dolphins start 1-3.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
Oakland Raiders (O/U: 8.5)
Team: 13 | Schedule: 12 | Projected wins: 8.5 | Favored: 11
The Raiders had a tremendous offseason and are well on their way to a playoff berth this season. The offense was already above average last year, and the addition of standout guard Kelechi Osemele supplies Oakland with arguably the AFC's best offensive line. Add that to third-year quarterbackDerek Carr and second-year pass-catchers Amari Cooper and Clive Walford and you have a unit on the rise.
Oakland entered the offseason with several defensive holes, but nearly all of them were filled. Bruce Irvin and Shilique Calhoun add to a pass rush that also includes Mario Edwards Jr. (once he returns from injury) and Khalil Mack.Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson and first-round pick Karl Joseph add size and talent to a completely overhauled secondary. Vegas is in on the secret, but nine wins is still easily attainable for a team that won seven last year.
Advice: Over 8.5
Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 9.5)
Team: 9 | Schedule: 18 | Projected wins: 8.4 | Favored: 10
The Chiefs are very much in contention to take the AFC West this year, but Justin Houston's knee injury and the losses of Sean Smith, Tyvon Branch and Mike DeVito are a big hit to a defense that carried this team to the playoffs last year. Additionally, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson were terrific last year, but both will be 33 years old this season.
The Kansas City offense is solid, but it won't be enough to overcome a dramatic dip in defensive production. With so many question marks on that side of the ball, Kansas City is a strong candidate for a dip in wins this year.
Advice: Under 9.5
Denver Broncos (O/U: 9.5)
Team: 10 | Schedule: 27 | Projected wins: 7.8 | Favored: 8
From Super Bowl champions to out of the playoffs? It sure looks as if that will be the case for the 2016 Broncos. Yes, Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler were far from stellar at quarterback last season, but the combination of Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch is definitely worse. This team still has some strong top-end offensive weapons in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and C.J. Anderson, but depth is a concern.
Elite defensive play carried Denver last year and, as if some regression to the mean wasn't enough, standouts Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan were lost to free agency and Vance Walker suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Denver is set to face a brutal schedule that includes meetings with Carolina, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Houston, New Orleans and New England. The Broncos are a near-lock to underperform expectations this season.
Advice: Under 9.5
San Diego Chargers (O/U: 7)
Team: 25 | Schedule: 10 | Projected wins: 6.7 | Favored: 3
San Diego was fairly competitive early on last season, but a brutal string of injuries led to losses in 10 of its final 12 games. Unfortunately, the team didn't make many offseason moves that will help out in the short term.Joey Bosa, the third-overall pick in April's draft, is unlikely to make much of an impact early on this year after not signing his rookie deal until late August. Standout safety Eric Weddle is also gone, which means a lot (too much?) will be on the shoulders of Melvin Ingram and Jason Verrett.
On the offensive side of the ball, Philip Rivers will put points on the boards, but the losses of Ladarius Green, Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson weren't quite offset by the additions of Hunter Henry, Travis Benjamin and James Jones. The Chargers will score enough and the schedule is light enough that they'll stay somewhat competitive, but this team just isn't very good.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 9.5)
Team: 6 | Schedule: 3 | Projected wins: 9.5 | Favored: 14
I like the Bengals in the AFC North, but it's mostly a nod to their top-end defense. Reggie Nelson, who led the NFL in interceptions last year, andLeon Hall are gone, but Cincinnati has fallback options in place with Darqueze Dennard and Shawn Williams. The addition of Karlos Dansby will help offsetVontaze Burfict's three-game suspension.
The Cincinnati offense ranked fourth in touchdowns last year, but the departures of Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson can't be overlooked. The Bengals' schedule is pretty rough out of the gate but lightens up quite a bit after Week 6. My projection is right with Vegas, so this is a close one, but I like them enough to take the over.
Advice: Over 9.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 10.5)
Team: 10 | Schedule: 4 | Projected wins: 8.8 | Favored: 10
The Steelers have one of Vegas' highest projected win totals this year, which is surprising to me when you consider the suspensions of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller-replacement Ladarius Green's placement on the PUP list and, most important, the state of their defense. I have no doubt about Ben Roethlisberger's ability to keep the Steelers' offense near the top of the league, but the defense is seemingly being overrated.
Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward are strong up front, but Ryan Shazier,Lawrence Timmons and Bud Dupree are coming off rough 2015 seasons. James Harrison was terrific last year, but he's now 38 years old. The secondary is average, at best. Seemingly as a result of pedigree, the strength of Pittsburgh's roster is being overstated this year and thus the Steelers are a strong candidate for the under.
Advice: Under 10.5
Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 8.5)
Team: 23 | Schedule: 11 | Projected wins: 7.1 | Favored: 4
I'm clearly not particularly fond of the AFC North this year. The Ravens were derailed by injuries last season, but let's not forget that they started 1-6 and didn't do much to improve during the offseason. Eric Weddle was a nice addition to the secondary, but he's another 30-plus year old player in a defensive core that also includes Terrell Suggs (33), Elvis Dumervil (32), andLardarius Webb (30).
The defense is solid up front, but there are concerns at linebacker and corner. The offense will be banking on a lot of boom and not much bust from the likes of Terrance West, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Crockett Gillmore.
Advice: Under 8.5
Cleveland Browns (O/U: 4.5)
Team: 31 | Schedule: 16 | Projected wins: 5.2 | Favored: 0
Cleveland's defense figures to be one of the league's worst in 2016. As if it wasn't already in rough shape, Desmond Bryant (torn pec) is out for the year and Armonty Bryant is facing a long-term suspension. Especially after Joe Haden's rough 2015, there is very little star power and not much depth in this unit. Offensively, however, the Browns are headed the right direction. The Robert Griffin III/Josh McCown quarterback duo isn't exactly ideal, but the supporting cast is solid. Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Josh Gordon(suspended Weeks 1-4), Corey Coleman, Andrew Hawkins, Terrelle Pryor,Rashard Higgins and Gary Barnidge provide Cleveland with its best set of offensive skill position players in quite some time.
The Browns figure to be one of the league's worst teams, but especially with Hue Jackson now in control, it won't be a surprise if they pull off five wins.
Advice: Over 4.5
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
Houston Texans (O/U: 8.5)
Team: 8 | Schedule: 21 | Projected wins: 8.6 | Favored: 10
Houston added a lot of talent to its offense, although it's hard to know just how good it will be with relative-unknown Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Skill-position players DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong and Lamar Miller will certainly help his cause. J.J. Wattmight miss a game, but Houston's defense is in pretty good shape with the likes of Johnathan Joseph, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, Vince Wilfork and emerging Kevin Johnson in the mix.
Andrew Luck's return makes the Colts the consensus favorite to take the South, but their offensive line and defense are a mess. Houston's defense is excellent and the offense is just good enough that I'm comfortable with them getting to nine wins.
Advice: Over 8.5
Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 9)
Team: 16 | Schedule: 17 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 10
The defense is in pretty rough shape, so the Colts will be relying heavily on Andrew Luck's ability to carry them to the playoffs. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncriefand Phillip Dorsett provide Luck with a strong trio of weapons at wide receiver. I expect the Colts to rank near the league lead in pass attempts and offensive scoring, but that very well could be offset by their defensive woes. That's especially the case with stud corner Vontae Davis out for a month because of an ankle injury. Indianapolis is weak in the secondary, old at linebacker (D'Qwell Jackson - 32, Robert Mathis - 35, Trent Cole - 33) and pedestrian in the interior.
With Houston in the mix and Jacksonville on the rise, I expect the Colts to miss the playoffs.
Advice: Under 9
Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 7.5)
Team: 18 | Schedule: 8 | Projected wins: 7.8 | Favored: 7
The Jaguars are on the rise, but this remains a team with many weaknesses. Blake Bortles took a step forward in his second season, but continued to struggle with accuracy and turnovers. The addition of Chris Ivorywill certainly help balance out the team's offensive attack, which will need to be the unit that carries this squad in 2016. Jacksonville is much better defensively with Dante Fowler Jr. back from injury and after adding Malik Jackson, Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara. But there are still unfilled holes in what is an overhauled and inexperienced unit.
The Jaguars are a threat for a .500 record for the first time in a while, but they figure to be a season away from a playoff push. My projection says just under eight wins, but there are enough red flags here that I'm more comfortable with the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
Tennessee Titans (O/U: 6)
Team: 27 | Schedule: 5 | Projected wins: 7.2 | Favored: 2
I think the Titans are a ways off from a playoff push, but there are two reasons to take the over. The first is the potential emergence of Marcus Mariota, as well as, an improved supporting cast that also includes DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson,Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker. The second a very light schedule. Tennessee will face off with the NFC North and AFC West, but the matchups against Minnesota, Green Bay, Oakland and Denver are all at home.
The Titans' defense is a weak spot, but it does have standouts on every level with Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo, Wesley Woodyard and Da'Norris Searcy. This is an easy one.
Advice: Over 6.0
[h=2]NFC East[/h]
New York Giants (O/U: 8.5)
Team: 13 | Schedule: 1 | Projected wins: 9.2 | Favored: 13
The Giants might not be the best team in the NFC East, but an extremely light schedule makes them the favorite to take the division. New York's non-divisional home slate includes matchups with New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago and Detroit. On the road, the Giants face Minnesota, Green Bay, Los Angeles (in London), Cleveland and Pittsburgh. That's the league's lightest schedule and their wideouts will also benefit from aneasy slate of opposing cornerbacks. Despite Rueben Randle and Dwayne Harriscombining to play over 1,500 snaps and without much stability at tight end or tailback, the Giants ranked eighth in offensive yardage last year. The addition ofSterling Shepard and cementing of Rashad Jennings as lead back makes this unit even better.
The defense still has several holes, but the additions of Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins, Damon Harrison, Leon Hall and Eli Apple will solidify a unit that allowed a league-high 6,725 yards last year.
Advice: Over 8.5
Dallas Cowboys (O/U: 8.5)
Team: 18 | Schedule: 2 | Projected wins: 8.1 | Favored: 9
The only team with an easier 2016 schedule than Dallas this season is the projected division-champion Giants. Not having Demarcus Lawrence (suspended four games) early will hurt, but Dallas will play four winnable games during that span (Giants, Redskins, Bears, 49ers). The rest of the Cowboys non-divisional slate includes Cincinnati, Green Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Detroit. Even without Tony Romo for roughly half the season, the Cowboys' offense is a good bet to rebound this year. The line is still elite, Dez Bryant is back in the saddle, Ezekiel Elliott is a game-changer at tailback and Dak Prescott looked the part during the preseason.
The biggest problem here, of course, is a defense riddled with holes, especially after the long-term suspensions of Rolando McClain and Randy Gregory. Dallas' schedule and offense make them contenders in the East, but Romo's injury and the problematic defense makes them a risky bet to eclipse eight wins.
Advice: Under 8.5
Washington Redskins (O/U: 7.5)
Team: 15 | Schedule: 20 | Projected wins: 8.0 | Favored: 9
A case can be made that Washington is the best team in the NFC East, but a schedule that is much tougher than that of New York and Dallas is enough to make them a better contender for a wild card than a division crown. It might seem silly to suggest the schedules could be that much different considering there are only two uncommon opponents, but Washington's slate includes a trip to Arizona and a home meeting with Carolina. Dallas gets the 49ers and Bucs, while New York faces the Rams and Saints. Washington's passing game is stacked (DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder,Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed), but there are big questions surrounding the running game (Matt Jones has been bad and is hurt) and the defense.
Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland supply the team with a strong one-two punch at corner, but there aren't many standouts at safety, linebacker or in the interior. Chris Baker is solid and rookie Su'a Cravens is a potential difference-maker, but otherwise, this is an underwhelming unit. At the end of the day, Washington looks like an 8-8 team, so I'm fairly comfortable with the over.
Advice: Over 7.5
Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 6.5)
Team: 26 | Schedule: 22 | Projected wins: 6.5 | Favored: 1
The rebranded Eagles had the look of a deep sleeper in the NFC this season, but a devastating 10-game suspension to superstar tackle Lane Johnson and the recent trade of Sam Bradford to Minnesota have turned this into an obvious rebuilding campaign. Rookie Carson Wentz is certainly intriguing, but without a top-end line for most of the year, it's hard to expect him to get much out of an underwhelming group of skill position players.Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz are solid, but there's not much else at wide receiver and the rushing game will be very dependent on Ryan Mathews' health.
The Eagles' defense could really go either way. They're stocked with talent up front and at safety, but corner and linebacker are question marks. If the likes ofStephen Tulloch, Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks, Nolan Carroll and Leodis McKelvin can hold down the fort, the Philly defense will surprise. The schedule isn't easy, and the Eagles' defense is unlikely to help them get to more than six wins.
Advice: Under 6.5
[h=2]NFC West[/h]
Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 10.5)
Team: 1 | Schedule: 12 | Projected wins: 11.1 | Favored: 15
As far as I'm concerned, the Seahawks are the best team in the league, so I'm certainly in on them reaching the 11-win mark this season. It all starts on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle has allowed the fewest points each of the past four years and has finished no worse than second in terms of yardage allowed over the past three seasons. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and second-round pick Jarran Reed supply Seattle with arguably the league's top defensive lineup. Seattle's offense was brutal early on last year, but exploded for 36 touchdowns during its final 10 games (that 3.6 average would've bested Carolina's league-high full-season mark of 3.3). Jimmy Graham is expected back and Tyler Lockett will only be better in his second season.
A brutal offensive line is a definite red flag, but as long as Russell Wilson is under center, this offense will score plenty of points. Seattle also fell into a manageable schedule that happens to be a walk in the park out of the gate (Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York Jets, Atlanta).
Advice: Over 10.5
Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 10)
Team: 4 | Schedule: 22 | Projected wins: 10.0 | Favored: 13
If you told me you felt Arizona was better than Seattle from a talent standpoint, I wouldn't argue with you. It's a close call. Arizona's offense is stacked with top-end weapons Carson Palmer, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown andMichael Floyd. Chandler Jones, Robert Nkemdiche, Brandon Williams and Tyvon Branch were added to a quality defense that was mostly kept intact and also includes Patrick Peterson, Calais Campbell and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu.
Similar to Seattle, Arizona figures to jump out to a hot start. Following a home meeting with the Tom Brady-less Patriots in Week 1, the Cardinals face off with Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Los Angeles and San Francisco. My conservative model has Arizona just over 10 wins, but this team has the upside to match its total of 13 last season.
Advice: Over 10
Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 7.5)
Team: 28 | Schedule: 31 | Projected wins: 5.4 | Favored: 2
This is the easiest call on the board. As I pointed out a few months ago, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league. Sure, they drafted Jared Goff first overall in April's draft, but he's going to play behindCase Keenum and Sean Mannion early on this year and, even when he does play, he's a 21-year-old rookie. Todd Gurley is terrific, but the team's wide receiver and tight end situation is below average at best. The offensive line is one of the worst in the league. The defense isn't much better. Aaron Donald,Robert Quinn, William Hayes and Michael Brockers supply Los Angeles with an elite defensive line, but that's about where the positives end. Alec Ogletree was torn to shreds in coverage last season and is set to take over at middle linebacker. Trumaine Johnson and EJ Gaines have potential at corner, but the latter missed the entire 2015 season. T.J. McDonald and Cody Davis are arguably the worst starting safety duo in the league. Yes, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis struggled last year, but Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod and Nick Fairley were very good and all five players are gone.
Add all of that to a schedule that includes Seattle and Arizona twice, as well as, meetings with Carolina, New York Giants, New Orleans and the entire AFC East. The Rams are as close to a lock as you'll find to hit on the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 5.5)
Team: 32 | Schedule: 32 | Projected wins: 5.1 | Favored: 1
Chip Kelly's first season in the Bay Area isn't going to a pleasant one. The 49ers are devoid of much talent and will face the league's toughest schedule. The four divisional games against Arizona and Seattle are obviously a big part of that, but the Niners will also meet up with Carolina, Dallas, Buffalo, New England and the New York Jets. Many of their "winnable" games, which include Miami, Chicago and Atlanta, happen to be on the road. I'm a big Carlos Hyde fan, but his efficiency might be in vain if Blaine Gabbert can't move the ball down field. Considering that his top weapons are Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton, Garrett Celek and Vance McDonald, the odds of a resurgence are pretty low.
Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Navorro Bowman and Aaron Lynch lead a defense with voids at nearly every level. The 49ers are strong contenders for the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
Advice: Under 5.5
[h=2]NFC North[/h]
Green Bay Packers (O/U: 10.5)
Team: 5 | Schedule: 6 | Projected wins: 10.3 | Favored: 15
The Packers are one of the league's most-talented teams on both sides of the ball and will benefit from a generous schedule this season. Aaron Rodgers' efficiency took a step back last season, but the return of Jordy Nelsonand a potential Eddie Lacy rebound will help in that area. Casey Hayward and B.J. Raji are gone, and there are question marks at linebacker and cornerback, but Mike Daniels, Clay Matthews, Sam Shields, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett supply the defensive unit with plenty of star power.
Green Bay won 10 games last year and the competition within the division is about the same. Eleven wins is attainable, but also risky for a team that took a step back last year.
Advice: Push 10.5
Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 9.5)
Team: 7 | Schedule: 19 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 11
The defending NFC North champions benefited from a fairly light schedule and a lot of field goals en route to an 11-win 2015 campaign. Although most of that squad will return this season, a tougher schedule and an offense extremely reliant on its 31-year-old running back make a repeat extremely unlikely. Laquon Treadwell was a much-needed addition to the Vikings' suspect receiving corps, but he might not play meaningful snaps until midseason.
Minnesota's defense is what will keep them in the wild-card discussion. Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith provide star power on every level. The drop-off from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Bradford isn't substantial, especially for a team so reliant on the running game, but Vegas remains a bit too optimistic for my liking.
Advice: Under 9.5
Chicago Bears (O/U: 7.5)
Team: 24 | Schedule: 7 | Projected wins: 7.1 | Favored: 4
Chicago's defense has been pretty brutal over the past three years, but that might not be the case this season after a barrage of savvy offseason moves. Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard will help solidify the interior. Jerrell Freeman, Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd join Pernell McPhee (once healthy) and Willie Young in one of the game's top 3-4 linebacker groups. The secondary remains a weak spot, but at the very least, the defense should be competent. Offensively, the Bears will try to run the ball, but I'm on record as not buying in on Jeremy Langford.
On the plus side, Zach Miller showed well as a replacement for the departed Martellus Bennett last season, and 2015 seventh-overall pick Kevin White is back in the fold. The Bears are better than the team that won six games last season, but I have a hard time seeing them winning eight games with Minnesota and Green Bay in the division. A light schedule is enough to make them worthy of 'push' consideration, but I'm comfortable with the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
Detroit Lions (O/U: 7)
Team: 28 | Schedule: 14 | Projected wins: 7.0 | Favored: 4
Detroit went 7-9 last season, but didn't do as much as their division rivals to improve the roster during the offseason. Oh, and some guy named Calvin Johnson retired. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick, Matt Stafford has plenty of respectable options in the passing game, but it's hard to see this unit eclipsing league-average production.
Darius Slay, Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy lead what isn't a particularly good defensive unit. The Lions aren't contenders this season and very well could push for a top-five pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]NFC South[/h]
Carolina Panthers (O/U: 10.5)
Team: 3 | Schedule: 15 | Projected wins: 10.3 | Favored: 15
The Panthers won 15 games last season, and although they won't get close to that mark in 2016, this remains one of the league's better teams. Six games against the NFC South supplies the Panthers with a league-average schedule, but their competition outside the division won't be easy. They play at Denver, Oakland and Seattle, and will meet up with Minnesota, Arizona and Kansas City in Charlotte. The offense is sure to rank near the ceiling of the league, but we should expect some regression from the 3.3 touchdowns per game the unit averaged last year.
Most of the defense will return, but Josh Norman, Roman Harper and Charles Tillman are out, and a pair of rookie corners (James Bradberry and Daryl Worley) are ticketed for starting gigs. This one is close, but we need to include some additional risk for a team that is so reliant on a quarterback who will run the ball well over 100 times.
Advice: Under 10.5
New Orleans Saints (O/U: 7)
Team: 22 | Schedule: 26 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 10
The Saints went 7-9 last season, which is pretty impressive when you consider that they gave up a ridiculous 476 points. That's 28 more than any other team. The reason they managed a near-.500 record was a Drew Brees-led offense that ranked second in the league in touchdowns. That offense should be even better this season following the additions of Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener. The defense remains a work in progress, but it should make strides with Rob Ryan out and Sheldon Rankins (once healthy), Nick Fairley, James Laurinaitis and Roman Harper in.
A tough schedule that includes meetings with the NFC and AFC West divisions is a determinant to the Saints' playoff hopes, but a healthy Brees combined with a somewhat-competent defensive effort will put them in the conversation.
Advice: Over 7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 7)
Team: 18 | Schedule: 25 | Projected wins: 7.4 | Favored: 6
The Buccaneers appear to be a team on the rise, but there are enough holes that they shouldn't be considered a threat to Carolina just yet.Jameis Winston showed flashes as a rookie and lost weight during the offseason, but he'll need to improve on serious rookie-season accuracy woes.Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson provide Winston with a pair of big, talented targets, but there isn't much additional receiving depth.
The Bucs' defense was terrific against the run last season, and added Robert Ayers and Noah Spence to help with the pass rush, but the holes at linebacker and safety are problematic. Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves III should improve the team's cornerback situation, but the former is 33 years old and the latter is a 21-year-old rookie. This is a team that very well could push for a .500 record, but I hesitate to take the over with so much riding on Winston's progress.
Advice: Push 7
Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 7)
Team: 18 | Schedule: 30 | Projected wins: 7.2 | Favored:
Considering the tough schedules, it seems unlikely that an NFC Wild Card will come out of the southern division this season. Atlanta made a few mild improvements during the offseason, but this remains a team without much punch. The offense will run through Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, but there's not much additional depth. Mohamed Sanu is an upgrade on the 2015 version of Roddy White, but not by much. Jacob Tamme will feel pressure from rookie Austin Hooper, but he'll still play a massive role.
On the plus side, a revamped offensive line is all-of-sudden one of the top units in the league. Atlanta's defense is actually pretty solid and additions Derrick Shelby, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, as well as, second-year progression from Vic Beasley and Jalen Collins put them in the conversation for seven or eight wins. The Falcons will be more competitive this year, but they're unlikely to get back to .500. I'd avoid this one.
Advice: Push 7
ESPN INSIDER
What are the best NFL win total bets for every team this year? My projections help sort out who is most likely to go over or under their projected number.
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Teams are sorted by their projected divisional finish. 'Team' refers to each team's ranking relative to the league's 31 other teams. 'Schedule' is a ranking of each team's strength of schedule. The lower the number, the easier the slate. Each team's projected wins are shown, as well as, how many games I expect them to be favored in this season.
AFC: East | West | North | South
NFC: East | West | North | South
[h=2]AFC East[/h]
Team: 2 | Schedule: 9 | Projected wins: 10.9 | Favored: 15
Tom Brady will sit out four games, but New England figures to be the favorite in Jimmy Garoppolo's home starts against Miami, Houston and Buffalo. Overall, the Patriots' schedule is one of the lightest in the league. Two of their toughest opponents -- Cincinnati and Seattle -- will visit Foxboro following Brady's return.
The Patriots already had one of the league's top offenses, but the additions ofMartellus Bennett, Chris Hogan and Malcolm Mitchell should only add to its efficiency. The defense added supporting contributors Chris Long, Barkevious Mingo and Shea McClellin to a unit that already included Jabaal Sheard, Jamie Collins, Dont'a Hightower and a loaded secondary. A stacked team with an easy schedule? The Patriots should push for 11-12 wins.
Advice: Over 10.5
Team: 12 | Schedule: 24 | Projected wins: 8.1 | Favored: 8
The Chan Gailey experiment seems to be working, as the Jets ranked sixth in the league in offensive touchdowns per game in his first season as the team's offensive coordinator. Ryan Fitzpatrick played above his head, so regression is a concern, but Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker and a pair of quality backs in Matt Forte and Bilal Powell will help keep the offense afloat.
The defensive side of the ball is more of a concern. Muhammad Wilkerson,Leonard Williams and Sheldon Richardson are as good as it gets up front, but there are question marks at linebacker and behind 31-year-old Darrelle Revis in the secondary. It will be tough for this team to overcome a rough non-divisional slate that includes the Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Steelers, Cardinals and Colts.
Advice: Push 8
Team: 16 | Schedule: 27 | Projected wins: 8.0 | Favored: 9
The Bills appeared to be on the cusp of a playoff push, but the defense has imploded over the past few months. IK Enemkpali and rookieReggie Ragland are out for the season, while Shaq Lawson (shoulder) and Marcell Dareus (suspension) will both miss significant action.
Fortunately for Buffalo, the defense is still fairly stocked with talent and the offense should be even better than last season. Despite missing Tyrod Taylor in two games and having Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy for 11 full games each, the Bills offense ranked eighth in touchdowns in 2015. This has the looks of a .500 team.
Advice: Push 8
Team: 30 | Schedule: 29 | Projected wins: 6.2 | Favored: 2
New head coach Adam Gase will have his hands full getting the most out of a weak roster that will need to deal with a very tough schedule in his debut season with the club. Ryan Tannehill hit a wall last year and it's very possible we've seen the 28-year-old's ceiling. On the plus side, Jarvis Landry,DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Leonte Carroo, Jordan Cameron and Arian Fosterprovide Tannehill with a quality and deep supporting cast.
The bigger issue is the defensive side of the ball where Miami will try to replaceBrent Grimes and Olivier Vernon with Byron Maxwell and Mario Williams. This is a very weak unit behind Ndamukong Suh and Reshad Jones. With trips to Seattle, New England and Cincinnati on the slate during Weeks 1-4, there's a very good chance the Dolphins start 1-3.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]AFC West[/h]
Team: 13 | Schedule: 12 | Projected wins: 8.5 | Favored: 11
The Raiders had a tremendous offseason and are well on their way to a playoff berth this season. The offense was already above average last year, and the addition of standout guard Kelechi Osemele supplies Oakland with arguably the AFC's best offensive line. Add that to third-year quarterbackDerek Carr and second-year pass-catchers Amari Cooper and Clive Walford and you have a unit on the rise.
Oakland entered the offseason with several defensive holes, but nearly all of them were filled. Bruce Irvin and Shilique Calhoun add to a pass rush that also includes Mario Edwards Jr. (once he returns from injury) and Khalil Mack.Sean Smith, Reggie Nelson and first-round pick Karl Joseph add size and talent to a completely overhauled secondary. Vegas is in on the secret, but nine wins is still easily attainable for a team that won seven last year.
Advice: Over 8.5
Team: 9 | Schedule: 18 | Projected wins: 8.4 | Favored: 10
The Chiefs are very much in contention to take the AFC West this year, but Justin Houston's knee injury and the losses of Sean Smith, Tyvon Branch and Mike DeVito are a big hit to a defense that carried this team to the playoffs last year. Additionally, Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson were terrific last year, but both will be 33 years old this season.
The Kansas City offense is solid, but it won't be enough to overcome a dramatic dip in defensive production. With so many question marks on that side of the ball, Kansas City is a strong candidate for a dip in wins this year.
Advice: Under 9.5
Team: 10 | Schedule: 27 | Projected wins: 7.8 | Favored: 8
From Super Bowl champions to out of the playoffs? It sure looks as if that will be the case for the 2016 Broncos. Yes, Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler were far from stellar at quarterback last season, but the combination of Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch is definitely worse. This team still has some strong top-end offensive weapons in Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders and C.J. Anderson, but depth is a concern.
Elite defensive play carried Denver last year and, as if some regression to the mean wasn't enough, standouts Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan were lost to free agency and Vance Walker suffered a season-ending torn ACL. Denver is set to face a brutal schedule that includes meetings with Carolina, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Houston, New Orleans and New England. The Broncos are a near-lock to underperform expectations this season.
Advice: Under 9.5
Team: 25 | Schedule: 10 | Projected wins: 6.7 | Favored: 3
San Diego was fairly competitive early on last season, but a brutal string of injuries led to losses in 10 of its final 12 games. Unfortunately, the team didn't make many offseason moves that will help out in the short term.Joey Bosa, the third-overall pick in April's draft, is unlikely to make much of an impact early on this year after not signing his rookie deal until late August. Standout safety Eric Weddle is also gone, which means a lot (too much?) will be on the shoulders of Melvin Ingram and Jason Verrett.
On the offensive side of the ball, Philip Rivers will put points on the boards, but the losses of Ladarius Green, Malcom Floyd and Stevie Johnson weren't quite offset by the additions of Hunter Henry, Travis Benjamin and James Jones. The Chargers will score enough and the schedule is light enough that they'll stay somewhat competitive, but this team just isn't very good.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]AFC North[/h]
Team: 6 | Schedule: 3 | Projected wins: 9.5 | Favored: 14
I like the Bengals in the AFC North, but it's mostly a nod to their top-end defense. Reggie Nelson, who led the NFL in interceptions last year, andLeon Hall are gone, but Cincinnati has fallback options in place with Darqueze Dennard and Shawn Williams. The addition of Karlos Dansby will help offsetVontaze Burfict's three-game suspension.
The Cincinnati offense ranked fourth in touchdowns last year, but the departures of Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson can't be overlooked. The Bengals' schedule is pretty rough out of the gate but lightens up quite a bit after Week 6. My projection is right with Vegas, so this is a close one, but I like them enough to take the over.
Advice: Over 9.5
Team: 10 | Schedule: 4 | Projected wins: 8.8 | Favored: 10
The Steelers have one of Vegas' highest projected win totals this year, which is surprising to me when you consider the suspensions of Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant, Heath Miller-replacement Ladarius Green's placement on the PUP list and, most important, the state of their defense. I have no doubt about Ben Roethlisberger's ability to keep the Steelers' offense near the top of the league, but the defense is seemingly being overrated.
Stephon Tuitt and Cameron Heyward are strong up front, but Ryan Shazier,Lawrence Timmons and Bud Dupree are coming off rough 2015 seasons. James Harrison was terrific last year, but he's now 38 years old. The secondary is average, at best. Seemingly as a result of pedigree, the strength of Pittsburgh's roster is being overstated this year and thus the Steelers are a strong candidate for the under.
Advice: Under 10.5
Team: 23 | Schedule: 11 | Projected wins: 7.1 | Favored: 4
I'm clearly not particularly fond of the AFC North this year. The Ravens were derailed by injuries last season, but let's not forget that they started 1-6 and didn't do much to improve during the offseason. Eric Weddle was a nice addition to the secondary, but he's another 30-plus year old player in a defensive core that also includes Terrell Suggs (33), Elvis Dumervil (32), andLardarius Webb (30).
The defense is solid up front, but there are concerns at linebacker and corner. The offense will be banking on a lot of boom and not much bust from the likes of Terrance West, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Breshad Perriman and Crockett Gillmore.
Advice: Under 8.5
Team: 31 | Schedule: 16 | Projected wins: 5.2 | Favored: 0
Cleveland's defense figures to be one of the league's worst in 2016. As if it wasn't already in rough shape, Desmond Bryant (torn pec) is out for the year and Armonty Bryant is facing a long-term suspension. Especially after Joe Haden's rough 2015, there is very little star power and not much depth in this unit. Offensively, however, the Browns are headed the right direction. The Robert Griffin III/Josh McCown quarterback duo isn't exactly ideal, but the supporting cast is solid. Duke Johnson, Isaiah Crowell, Josh Gordon(suspended Weeks 1-4), Corey Coleman, Andrew Hawkins, Terrelle Pryor,Rashard Higgins and Gary Barnidge provide Cleveland with its best set of offensive skill position players in quite some time.
The Browns figure to be one of the league's worst teams, but especially with Hue Jackson now in control, it won't be a surprise if they pull off five wins.
Advice: Over 4.5
[h=2]AFC South[/h]
Team: 8 | Schedule: 21 | Projected wins: 8.6 | Favored: 10
Houston added a lot of talent to its offense, although it's hard to know just how good it will be with relative-unknown Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Skill-position players DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Braxton Miller, Jaelen Strong and Lamar Miller will certainly help his cause. J.J. Wattmight miss a game, but Houston's defense is in pretty good shape with the likes of Johnathan Joseph, Jadeveon Clowney, Whitney Mercilus, Vince Wilfork and emerging Kevin Johnson in the mix.
Andrew Luck's return makes the Colts the consensus favorite to take the South, but their offensive line and defense are a mess. Houston's defense is excellent and the offense is just good enough that I'm comfortable with them getting to nine wins.
Advice: Over 8.5
Team: 16 | Schedule: 17 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 10
The defense is in pretty rough shape, so the Colts will be relying heavily on Andrew Luck's ability to carry them to the playoffs. T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncriefand Phillip Dorsett provide Luck with a strong trio of weapons at wide receiver. I expect the Colts to rank near the league lead in pass attempts and offensive scoring, but that very well could be offset by their defensive woes. That's especially the case with stud corner Vontae Davis out for a month because of an ankle injury. Indianapolis is weak in the secondary, old at linebacker (D'Qwell Jackson - 32, Robert Mathis - 35, Trent Cole - 33) and pedestrian in the interior.
With Houston in the mix and Jacksonville on the rise, I expect the Colts to miss the playoffs.
Advice: Under 9
Team: 18 | Schedule: 8 | Projected wins: 7.8 | Favored: 7
The Jaguars are on the rise, but this remains a team with many weaknesses. Blake Bortles took a step forward in his second season, but continued to struggle with accuracy and turnovers. The addition of Chris Ivorywill certainly help balance out the team's offensive attack, which will need to be the unit that carries this squad in 2016. Jacksonville is much better defensively with Dante Fowler Jr. back from injury and after adding Malik Jackson, Myles Jack, Jalen Ramsey and Prince Amukamara. But there are still unfilled holes in what is an overhauled and inexperienced unit.
The Jaguars are a threat for a .500 record for the first time in a while, but they figure to be a season away from a playoff push. My projection says just under eight wins, but there are enough red flags here that I'm more comfortable with the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
Team: 27 | Schedule: 5 | Projected wins: 7.2 | Favored: 2
I think the Titans are a ways off from a playoff push, but there are two reasons to take the over. The first is the potential emergence of Marcus Mariota, as well as, an improved supporting cast that also includes DeMarco Murray, Derrick Henry, Rishard Matthews, Tajae Sharpe, Andre Johnson,Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker. The second a very light schedule. Tennessee will face off with the NFC North and AFC West, but the matchups against Minnesota, Green Bay, Oakland and Denver are all at home.
The Titans' defense is a weak spot, but it does have standouts on every level with Jurrell Casey, Brian Orakpo, Wesley Woodyard and Da'Norris Searcy. This is an easy one.
Advice: Over 6.0
[h=2]NFC East[/h]
Team: 13 | Schedule: 1 | Projected wins: 9.2 | Favored: 13
The Giants might not be the best team in the NFC East, but an extremely light schedule makes them the favorite to take the division. New York's non-divisional home slate includes matchups with New Orleans, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Chicago and Detroit. On the road, the Giants face Minnesota, Green Bay, Los Angeles (in London), Cleveland and Pittsburgh. That's the league's lightest schedule and their wideouts will also benefit from aneasy slate of opposing cornerbacks. Despite Rueben Randle and Dwayne Harriscombining to play over 1,500 snaps and without much stability at tight end or tailback, the Giants ranked eighth in offensive yardage last year. The addition ofSterling Shepard and cementing of Rashad Jennings as lead back makes this unit even better.
The defense still has several holes, but the additions of Olivier Vernon, Janoris Jenkins, Damon Harrison, Leon Hall and Eli Apple will solidify a unit that allowed a league-high 6,725 yards last year.
Advice: Over 8.5
Team: 18 | Schedule: 2 | Projected wins: 8.1 | Favored: 9
The only team with an easier 2016 schedule than Dallas this season is the projected division-champion Giants. Not having Demarcus Lawrence (suspended four games) early will hurt, but Dallas will play four winnable games during that span (Giants, Redskins, Bears, 49ers). The rest of the Cowboys non-divisional slate includes Cincinnati, Green Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and Detroit. Even without Tony Romo for roughly half the season, the Cowboys' offense is a good bet to rebound this year. The line is still elite, Dez Bryant is back in the saddle, Ezekiel Elliott is a game-changer at tailback and Dak Prescott looked the part during the preseason.
The biggest problem here, of course, is a defense riddled with holes, especially after the long-term suspensions of Rolando McClain and Randy Gregory. Dallas' schedule and offense make them contenders in the East, but Romo's injury and the problematic defense makes them a risky bet to eclipse eight wins.
Advice: Under 8.5
Team: 15 | Schedule: 20 | Projected wins: 8.0 | Favored: 9
A case can be made that Washington is the best team in the NFC East, but a schedule that is much tougher than that of New York and Dallas is enough to make them a better contender for a wild card than a division crown. It might seem silly to suggest the schedules could be that much different considering there are only two uncommon opponents, but Washington's slate includes a trip to Arizona and a home meeting with Carolina. Dallas gets the 49ers and Bucs, while New York faces the Rams and Saints. Washington's passing game is stacked (DeSean Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder,Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed), but there are big questions surrounding the running game (Matt Jones has been bad and is hurt) and the defense.
Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland supply the team with a strong one-two punch at corner, but there aren't many standouts at safety, linebacker or in the interior. Chris Baker is solid and rookie Su'a Cravens is a potential difference-maker, but otherwise, this is an underwhelming unit. At the end of the day, Washington looks like an 8-8 team, so I'm fairly comfortable with the over.
Advice: Over 7.5
Team: 26 | Schedule: 22 | Projected wins: 6.5 | Favored: 1
The rebranded Eagles had the look of a deep sleeper in the NFC this season, but a devastating 10-game suspension to superstar tackle Lane Johnson and the recent trade of Sam Bradford to Minnesota have turned this into an obvious rebuilding campaign. Rookie Carson Wentz is certainly intriguing, but without a top-end line for most of the year, it's hard to expect him to get much out of an underwhelming group of skill position players.Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz are solid, but there's not much else at wide receiver and the rushing game will be very dependent on Ryan Mathews' health.
The Eagles' defense could really go either way. They're stocked with talent up front and at safety, but corner and linebacker are question marks. If the likes ofStephen Tulloch, Jordan Hicks, Mychal Kendricks, Nolan Carroll and Leodis McKelvin can hold down the fort, the Philly defense will surprise. The schedule isn't easy, and the Eagles' defense is unlikely to help them get to more than six wins.
Advice: Under 6.5
[h=2]NFC West[/h]
Team: 1 | Schedule: 12 | Projected wins: 11.1 | Favored: 15
As far as I'm concerned, the Seahawks are the best team in the league, so I'm certainly in on them reaching the 11-win mark this season. It all starts on the defensive side of the ball. Seattle has allowed the fewest points each of the past four years and has finished no worse than second in terms of yardage allowed over the past three seasons. Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Kam Chancellor and second-round pick Jarran Reed supply Seattle with arguably the league's top defensive lineup. Seattle's offense was brutal early on last year, but exploded for 36 touchdowns during its final 10 games (that 3.6 average would've bested Carolina's league-high full-season mark of 3.3). Jimmy Graham is expected back and Tyler Lockett will only be better in his second season.
A brutal offensive line is a definite red flag, but as long as Russell Wilson is under center, this offense will score plenty of points. Seattle also fell into a manageable schedule that happens to be a walk in the park out of the gate (Miami, Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York Jets, Atlanta).
Advice: Over 10.5
Team: 4 | Schedule: 22 | Projected wins: 10.0 | Favored: 13
If you told me you felt Arizona was better than Seattle from a talent standpoint, I wouldn't argue with you. It's a close call. Arizona's offense is stacked with top-end weapons Carson Palmer, David Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown andMichael Floyd. Chandler Jones, Robert Nkemdiche, Brandon Williams and Tyvon Branch were added to a quality defense that was mostly kept intact and also includes Patrick Peterson, Calais Campbell and a healthy Tyrann Mathieu.
Similar to Seattle, Arizona figures to jump out to a hot start. Following a home meeting with the Tom Brady-less Patriots in Week 1, the Cardinals face off with Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Los Angeles and San Francisco. My conservative model has Arizona just over 10 wins, but this team has the upside to match its total of 13 last season.
Advice: Over 10
Team: 28 | Schedule: 31 | Projected wins: 5.4 | Favored: 2
This is the easiest call on the board. As I pointed out a few months ago, the Rams are one of the worst teams in the league. Sure, they drafted Jared Goff first overall in April's draft, but he's going to play behindCase Keenum and Sean Mannion early on this year and, even when he does play, he's a 21-year-old rookie. Todd Gurley is terrific, but the team's wide receiver and tight end situation is below average at best. The offensive line is one of the worst in the league. The defense isn't much better. Aaron Donald,Robert Quinn, William Hayes and Michael Brockers supply Los Angeles with an elite defensive line, but that's about where the positives end. Alec Ogletree was torn to shreds in coverage last season and is set to take over at middle linebacker. Trumaine Johnson and EJ Gaines have potential at corner, but the latter missed the entire 2015 season. T.J. McDonald and Cody Davis are arguably the worst starting safety duo in the league. Yes, Chris Long and James Laurinaitis struggled last year, but Janoris Jenkins, Rodney McLeod and Nick Fairley were very good and all five players are gone.
Add all of that to a schedule that includes Seattle and Arizona twice, as well as, meetings with Carolina, New York Giants, New Orleans and the entire AFC East. The Rams are as close to a lock as you'll find to hit on the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
Team: 32 | Schedule: 32 | Projected wins: 5.1 | Favored: 1
Chip Kelly's first season in the Bay Area isn't going to a pleasant one. The 49ers are devoid of much talent and will face the league's toughest schedule. The four divisional games against Arizona and Seattle are obviously a big part of that, but the Niners will also meet up with Carolina, Dallas, Buffalo, New England and the New York Jets. Many of their "winnable" games, which include Miami, Chicago and Atlanta, happen to be on the road. I'm a big Carlos Hyde fan, but his efficiency might be in vain if Blaine Gabbert can't move the ball down field. Considering that his top weapons are Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton, Garrett Celek and Vance McDonald, the odds of a resurgence are pretty low.
Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, Navorro Bowman and Aaron Lynch lead a defense with voids at nearly every level. The 49ers are strong contenders for the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
Advice: Under 5.5
[h=2]NFC North[/h]
Team: 5 | Schedule: 6 | Projected wins: 10.3 | Favored: 15
The Packers are one of the league's most-talented teams on both sides of the ball and will benefit from a generous schedule this season. Aaron Rodgers' efficiency took a step back last season, but the return of Jordy Nelsonand a potential Eddie Lacy rebound will help in that area. Casey Hayward and B.J. Raji are gone, and there are question marks at linebacker and cornerback, but Mike Daniels, Clay Matthews, Sam Shields, Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Morgan Burnett supply the defensive unit with plenty of star power.
Green Bay won 10 games last year and the competition within the division is about the same. Eleven wins is attainable, but also risky for a team that took a step back last year.
Advice: Push 10.5
Team: 7 | Schedule: 19 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 11
The defending NFC North champions benefited from a fairly light schedule and a lot of field goals en route to an 11-win 2015 campaign. Although most of that squad will return this season, a tougher schedule and an offense extremely reliant on its 31-year-old running back make a repeat extremely unlikely. Laquon Treadwell was a much-needed addition to the Vikings' suspect receiving corps, but he might not play meaningful snaps until midseason.
Minnesota's defense is what will keep them in the wild-card discussion. Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith provide star power on every level. The drop-off from Teddy Bridgewater to Sam Bradford isn't substantial, especially for a team so reliant on the running game, but Vegas remains a bit too optimistic for my liking.
Advice: Under 9.5
Team: 24 | Schedule: 7 | Projected wins: 7.1 | Favored: 4
Chicago's defense has been pretty brutal over the past three years, but that might not be the case this season after a barrage of savvy offseason moves. Akiem Hicks and Jonathan Bullard will help solidify the interior. Jerrell Freeman, Danny Trevathan and Leonard Floyd join Pernell McPhee (once healthy) and Willie Young in one of the game's top 3-4 linebacker groups. The secondary remains a weak spot, but at the very least, the defense should be competent. Offensively, the Bears will try to run the ball, but I'm on record as not buying in on Jeremy Langford.
On the plus side, Zach Miller showed well as a replacement for the departed Martellus Bennett last season, and 2015 seventh-overall pick Kevin White is back in the fold. The Bears are better than the team that won six games last season, but I have a hard time seeing them winning eight games with Minnesota and Green Bay in the division. A light schedule is enough to make them worthy of 'push' consideration, but I'm comfortable with the under.
Advice: Under 7.5
Team: 28 | Schedule: 14 | Projected wins: 7.0 | Favored: 4
Detroit went 7-9 last season, but didn't do as much as their division rivals to improve the roster during the offseason. Oh, and some guy named Calvin Johnson retired. With Marvin Jones, Golden Tate, Anquan Boldin, Eric Ebron and Theo Riddick, Matt Stafford has plenty of respectable options in the passing game, but it's hard to see this unit eclipsing league-average production.
Darius Slay, Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy lead what isn't a particularly good defensive unit. The Lions aren't contenders this season and very well could push for a top-five pick in the 2017 NFL draft.
Advice: Under 7
[h=2]NFC South[/h]
Team: 3 | Schedule: 15 | Projected wins: 10.3 | Favored: 15
The Panthers won 15 games last season, and although they won't get close to that mark in 2016, this remains one of the league's better teams. Six games against the NFC South supplies the Panthers with a league-average schedule, but their competition outside the division won't be easy. They play at Denver, Oakland and Seattle, and will meet up with Minnesota, Arizona and Kansas City in Charlotte. The offense is sure to rank near the ceiling of the league, but we should expect some regression from the 3.3 touchdowns per game the unit averaged last year.
Most of the defense will return, but Josh Norman, Roman Harper and Charles Tillman are out, and a pair of rookie corners (James Bradberry and Daryl Worley) are ticketed for starting gigs. This one is close, but we need to include some additional risk for a team that is so reliant on a quarterback who will run the ball well over 100 times.
Advice: Under 10.5
Team: 22 | Schedule: 26 | Projected wins: 8.2 | Favored: 10
The Saints went 7-9 last season, which is pretty impressive when you consider that they gave up a ridiculous 476 points. That's 28 more than any other team. The reason they managed a near-.500 record was a Drew Brees-led offense that ranked second in the league in touchdowns. That offense should be even better this season following the additions of Michael Thomas and Coby Fleener. The defense remains a work in progress, but it should make strides with Rob Ryan out and Sheldon Rankins (once healthy), Nick Fairley, James Laurinaitis and Roman Harper in.
A tough schedule that includes meetings with the NFC and AFC West divisions is a determinant to the Saints' playoff hopes, but a healthy Brees combined with a somewhat-competent defensive effort will put them in the conversation.
Advice: Over 7
Team: 18 | Schedule: 25 | Projected wins: 7.4 | Favored: 6
The Buccaneers appear to be a team on the rise, but there are enough holes that they shouldn't be considered a threat to Carolina just yet.Jameis Winston showed flashes as a rookie and lost weight during the offseason, but he'll need to improve on serious rookie-season accuracy woes.Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson provide Winston with a pair of big, talented targets, but there isn't much additional receiving depth.
The Bucs' defense was terrific against the run last season, and added Robert Ayers and Noah Spence to help with the pass rush, but the holes at linebacker and safety are problematic. Brent Grimes and Vernon Hargreaves III should improve the team's cornerback situation, but the former is 33 years old and the latter is a 21-year-old rookie. This is a team that very well could push for a .500 record, but I hesitate to take the over with so much riding on Winston's progress.
Advice: Push 7
Team: 18 | Schedule: 30 | Projected wins: 7.2 | Favored:
Considering the tough schedules, it seems unlikely that an NFC Wild Card will come out of the southern division this season. Atlanta made a few mild improvements during the offseason, but this remains a team without much punch. The offense will run through Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman, but there's not much additional depth. Mohamed Sanu is an upgrade on the 2015 version of Roddy White, but not by much. Jacob Tamme will feel pressure from rookie Austin Hooper, but he'll still play a massive role.
On the plus side, a revamped offensive line is all-of-sudden one of the top units in the league. Atlanta's defense is actually pretty solid and additions Derrick Shelby, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones, as well as, second-year progression from Vic Beasley and Jalen Collins put them in the conversation for seven or eight wins. The Falcons will be more competitive this year, but they're unlikely to get back to .500. I'd avoid this one.
Advice: Push 7
