UFC 203 - Betting Info / Predictions - 9/10

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Main Card (PPV)

Stipe Miocic (c) vs. Alistair Overeem
Fabrício Werdum vs. Travis Browne
CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera
Jéssica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood


Preliminary Card (Fox Sports 1)

Jessica Eye vs. Bethe Correia
Nik Lentz vs. Michael McBride
Caio Magalhães vs. Brad Tavares
Ian McCall vs. Ray Borg


Preliminary Card (UFC Fight Pass)

Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer
CB Dollaway vs. Francimar Barroso
Drew Dober vs. Jason Gonzalez
Damir Hadzovic vs. Yusuke Kasuya
 

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UFC 203: Early Main Card Preview and Predictions
from Steven Rondina - Bleacher Report



Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood

There's a lot to love about both Joanne Calderwood and Jessica Andrade. Both have bright futures and could very well be championship material. So naturally, UFC matchmakers are having them face off in a pointless bout in which neither will have the opportunity to look good.

Calderwood's bread and butter is her dynamic striking game. Her knees can wear opponents down in the clinch, and she has no shortage of tools at range. While Calderwood suffered a major setback when she lost to Maryna Moroz in 2015, her win over former contender Valerie Letourneau has put her back in the thick of the Top 10.

Andrade, meanwhile, has long been a fighter caught outside her weight class. A staple of the women's bantamweight division for years, she cemented herself as a solid gatekeeper with her pure ferocity, but she was never able to grow out of that role due to her lacking size.

Now fighting at strawweight, however, there's reason to buy into her as a legitimate contender, given her savage win over former title challenger Jessica Penne.

It's a shame that these two are facing off so early in their renewed relevance since the loser will suffer a huge setback when they could otherwise be en route to a title shot. Such is life as a UFC fighter, though.

Andrade is the pick here based on her toughness and pure strength, but this one could go either way.

Prediction: Jessica Andrade def. Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision




Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera

At 37 years old, Urijah Faber is old for a fighter and damn near ancient for a bantamweight.

That's not a knock on the California Kid (turned California Middle-Aged Man). The smaller weight classes require a level of speed and agility that is always quick to leave fighters once they pass their athletic prime, and Faber's is in the distant past.

While Faber still wins more often than not, he suffered a sharp physical decline in 2015, showing a dwindling level of explosiveness and physicality in two generally forgettable performances. Following his second loss to Dominick Cruz at UFC 199, it was easy to wonder if he may retire with no clear avenue to a title shot and few exciting potential opponents.

Unfortunately, Faber seems content to stick around for generally meaningless fights against unknown opponents—opponents like Jimmie Rivera.

Rivera isn't a bad fighter by any stretch of the imagination. 19-1 in his professional career and 3-0 in the UFC, the Bellator and World Series of Fighting veteran has had consistent success against high-level competition since his debut in 2008. He also showed he can hang with Top 10-caliber opposition by defeating Iuri Alcantara at UFC on Fox 18.

He's an underrated player in the division and could easily take the win, which makes this all the more sad.

A win does nothing for Faber. Rivera lacks name recognition, adds nothing to Faber's legacy and does nothing to change the fact that he is locked out of title contention.

A loss? Well, that would just put him on the same sad path that other legends like Chuck Liddell, Ken Shamrock and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira all walked on toward the sad ends of their respective careers.

That, unfortunately, is what fans are likely in store for at UFC 203.

Prediction: Jimmie Rivera def. Urijah Faber by unanimous decision




CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall

It's the fight we've all been waiting for.

Former WWE champion, former ECW champion and two-time Mr. Money in the Bank CM Punk is taping up his hands (instead of drawing X's on them), sliding on some four-ounce gloves and stepping into the Octagon. His opponent? Mickey Gall.

Punk's presence on the roster has been one of the most hotly debated topics in MMA in recent years.

For the most part, knowledgeable fans accept and even embrace the crossover between professional wrestling and MMA.

From the carnival days of shooters like Ed "Strangler" Lewis and Stanislaus Zbyszko, to forerunners like Gene LeBell and Antonio Inoki, to modern legends like Ken Shamrock, Dan Severn and Kazushi Sakuraba, the wild world of "sports entertainment" and no-holds-barred fighting have been intertwined for over 100 years.

But while there has always been crossover, Punk just doesn't fit into the framework of modern MMA.

There are plenty of professional wrestlers who have either had MMA success (like Bobby Lashley and Brock Lesnar) or could have MMA success based on their athleticism and legitimate combat sports backgrounds (like Jack Swagger, Chad Gable and Dolph Ziggler). That's not the case for the man otherwise known as Phil Brooks.

Punk has no legitimate combat sports background. Punk is not a standout athlete. Punk is a 37-year-old whose body is most likely worn down from 15 years of professional wrestling. That makes it hard to buy into him having a shot at success, no matter the opponent.

The UFC is throwing him a softball in Gall, an unheralded 2-0 fighter. Even so, it doesn't feel like Punk will be able to get a hit, literally or metaphorically.

Prediction: Mickey Gall def. CM Punk by unanimous decision




Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne

In 2013, Travis Browne was the scariest heavyweight in the UFC. 16-1-1 in his MMA career and coming off back-to-back-to-back knockouts of Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett, he looked like the top candidate to unseat the seemingly unstoppable champion, Cain Velasquez. All he had to do was post a win over aging veteran Fabricio Werdum. No problem, right?

Wrong.

In one of the biggest surprises of 2014, Werdum stepped into the cage with Browne and absolutely manhandled him. He out-struck him. He out-grappled him. He out-hustled him.

Werdum would go on to win the title from there, and Browne has been spinning his wheels ever since.

There's a redemption story in the making for Browne at UFC 203. A win over his old foe would vault him up the rankings, and a title change in the main event could put him right into contention.

Unfortunately, that isn't likely to happen. Unless Browne can land something big and heavy early on in the bout, look for Werdum to once again piece him up en route to a win on the scorecards.

Prediction: Fabricio Werdum def. Travis Browne by unanimous decision




Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem

At one point, Stipe Miocic and Alistair Overeem were both damaged goods.

How could someone who got knocked out by Stefan Struve ever go anywhere? What about someone who didn't bother to go anywhere as a college wrestler? Forget about his technically solid boxing and athleticism, Miocic was destined to a lifetime in the midcard.

Oh, and Overeem? He couldn't fight without the stuff. Just look at his 1-3 run after getting popped. How could someone who gets knocked out by Antonio Silva, Travis Browne and Ben Rothwell in an 18-month stretch go anywhere? The UFC probably should've just ignored his amazing striking pedigree and technical prowess and cut him.

Obviously, things didn't pan out that way, and now, they're main eventing an incredibly interesting pay-per-view with the heavyweight title on the line.

Overeem, the challenger, is a familiar name for any longtime MMA fan. A holdover from the defunct-but-beloved Pride FC, Overeem has built an impressive collection of titles, including the Strikeforce heavyweight title, the Dream heavyweight title and the 2010 K-1 World Grand Prix title.

He's acquired those belts and trophies through a combination of potent, diverse striking and a pure savvy that can only be acquired by fighting dozens upon dozens of times.

Miocic, the new champion, was a mystery to most until taking the UFC title at UFC 198, but he's quietly been an amazing fighter for years now. He took a unique path to the big show, going from NCAA Division I wrestling to baseball, then to MMA, then to boxing, then back to MMA.

While those strange transitions led to some hiccups, he entered the UFC with a unique blend of athleticism, solid wrestling and technical boxing and has posted numerous impressive wins as a result.

That makes this an incredibly interesting fight. While Overeem has fought and defeated nearly every manner of fighter, Miocic is very well-rounded and technically sound with no clear weakness.

This is a pick'em, if there's ever been one. Miocic is the slightly safer bet, given his superior wrestling game, sturdier chin and the potential for a home-cooked decision. Don't put money down on this one, though.

Prediction: Stipe Miocic def. Alistair Overeem by unanimous decision
 

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UFC 203 Preview & Predictions
from Victoria Barnett - UFC.com



Fighter Breakdown


Stipe Miocic


15 (11 KO/TKO)

1 Submission, 3 Decisions)

Losses: 2 (1 KO/TKO, 1 Decision)


Striking

50% successful (566 for 1,130)

4.93 significant strikes landed per minute

62% total strikes avoided



Grappling

34% successful (16 for 47)

2.09 average takedowns landed per 15 minutes

73% total takedowns avoided




Alistair Overeem


Wins: 41 (18 KO/TKO, 19 Submissions, 4 Decisions)

Losses: 14 (9 KO/TKO, 2 Submissions, 3 Decisions)



Striking

75% successful (327 for 438)

3.81 significant strikes landed per minute

64% total strikes avoided



Grappling

33% successful (3 for 9)

1.65 average takedowns landed per 15 minutes

78% total takedowns avoided



I highly doubt we will see this fight be taken to the ground. We will likely see plenty of hard punches thrown from both directions – we’ll just be waiting for the one that knocks Overeem out. Yes, we’re predicting this fight to favor Miocic and end via knockout in either the second or third round. I think Overeem has the ability to make it to the third, but at the same time, we wouldn’t be surprised if Miocic ends it in the second.

They are both complete beasts of fighters, but our odds favor Miocic to successfully defend his title.
 

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UFC 203
from Tapology



S. Miocic 59%
F. Werdum 91%
M. Gall 78%
U. Faber 67%
J. Calderwood 68%
J. Eye 71%
N. Lentz 93%
B. Tavares 84%
I. McCall 83%
Y. Medeiros 85%
C. Dollaway 83%
D. Dober 83%
D. Hadžović 79%
 

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MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas opened the betting odds for the two remaining main card bouts as well as all ten preliminary fights today at 5dimes Sportsbook.




Alistair Overeem +140
Stipe Miocic -170
Over 1.5 -140
Under 1.5 +100


Travis Browne +190
Fabricio Werdum -270
Over 2.5 -105
Under 2.5 -135


CM Punk +260
Mickey Gall -380
Over 1.5 +135
Under 1.5 -175


Jimmie Rivera -110
Urijah Faber -130
Over 2.5 -150
Under 2.5 +110


Jessica Andrade -120
Joanne Calderwood -120
Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150


Bethe Correia +110
Jessica Eye -150
Over 2.5 -260
Under 2.5 +180


Michael McBride +250
Nik Lentz -350
Over 2.5 -175
Under 2.5 +135


Caio Magalhaes +160
Brad Tavares -210
Over 1.5 -180
Under 1.5 +140


Ray Borg +120
Ian McCall -160
Over 2.5 -190
Under 2.5 +150


Sean Spencer +120
Yancy Medeiros -160
Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100


Francimar Barroso +150
C.B. Dollaway -190
Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +115


Jason Gonzalez +140
Drew Dober -180
Over 2.5 -155
Under 2.5 +115
 

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Toe-to-Toe: UFC 203 Preview and Predictions
from Combat Press


Combat Press writers Chris Huntemann and Zach Aittama are here to get you ready for all the action.




Four heavyweights top this card: UFC heavyweight champ Stipe Miocic, challenger Alistair Overeem, former champion Fabricio Werdum and borderline contender Travis Browne. Does youth (Miocic, Browne) trump experience (Overeem, Werdum)? Is a Miocic vs. Browne rivalry the inevitable final outcome in what is otherwise an aging heavyweight division? Is Browne capable of making that move to the true elite?

Aittama: Does youth trump experience? UFC heavyweight champion Stipe Miocic and top contender Travis Browne are just two years younger than the 36-year-old Alistair Overeem and five years the youth of Fabricio Werdum. There isn’t much of an age difference here, as both the champion and Browne are well into their mid-30s.

The heavyweight division, as it stands today, is in dire need of a massive influx of young talent. The youngest fighter in the UFC’s top 10 is the 31-year-old Derrick Lewis. After Lewis, Miocic is the youngest at 34. Browne and former champion Cain Velasquez are just a few months older. There are fighters coming up the pipeline, like 29-year-olds Ruslan Magomedov and Francis Ngannou. However, as a whole, the heavyweight division is definitely in need of some youth, but that is a topic for another day.

Most of the top 10 in the heavyweight division consists of fighters who have fought and beaten each other, with some having done so multiple times. In the main event of the evening, we get a fresh match-up between two men with the power to end the fight at any moment. When Miocic and Overeem clash, there won’t be much room for forgiveness. One punch, one kick or one knee could be the end of the fight. That’s why this is a such an intriguing match-up.

Overeem was previously scheduled to fight for the UFC heavyweight title at UFC 146 against then-champion Junior dos Santos. The former Strikeforce heavyweight champ made his much-anticipated UFC debut against former UFC heavyweight kingpin Brock Lesnar at UFC 141. The 2010 K-1 World GP champion decimated the WWE superstar’s body with kicks to earn a title shot with the first-round victory. The title shot never came to fruition, however, because Overeem tested positive for elevated levels of testosterone in a pre-fight screening. The failure sent Overeem down what would become a career freefall. He returned to the Octagon to lose back-to-back fights by knockout against Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and the aforementioned Browne. The losses seemed to signal a lost opportunity for “the Reem.”

The muscle-bound heavyweight looked like an unstoppable force when he compiled 10 straight wins leading up to his Octagon debut. That notion was over by the time Ben Rothwell put Overeem away in the first round. Then something happened. Overeem changed his body, his preparations and his training. He moved to the Jackson-Winkeljohn camp, and the decision started to pay off in the cage. Overeem picked up impressive wins over Stefan Struve, Roy Nelson, dos Santos and, most recently, Andrei Arlovski. He was back and more efficient than ever. Overeem was able to eliminate some of the flaws that led to past losses. Those changes have led to Overeem being in the position he is in today, one win away from the UFC title.

Miocic took a similar path to the belt. He shocked many when he put away all-time heavyweight Werdum in under one round. The way he landed powerful counter punches while moving back showcased the full-time firefighter’s most valuable trait, his punching power. Miocic has finished 11 of his 15 wins by knockout.

Don’t let the experience fool you. Yes, Overeem has been inside the cage and ring much more frequently, but Miocic hasn’t taken nearly the same amount of damage as the Dutchman. That’s why this fight is so intriguing, and why youth might trump experience in this contest. Two of the heaviest hitters in the world are going to exchange strikes for our enjoyment, and the likely outcome is a brutal contest ending in spectacular finish.

The other match-up of top heavyweights features a rematch between the former UFC heavyweight champ Werdum and the athletic contender Browne. Werdum dispatched of Browne in impressive fashion on his way to winning the UFC crown. It may be that I have little faith in Browne’s development under Edmond Tarverdyan, or that I just don’t believe Browne has the tools to beat Werdum, but I’m not really giving Browne much of a chance the second time around. Werdum may be 39 and he may have just been knocked out in May, but the former titleholder still has the athletic tools, size and diverse skill set to beat Browne in all facets of the sport. Werdum’s striking evolved under the tutelage of King’s MMA and Rafael Cordeiro. His jab, exceptional array of kicks and ability to keep the fight where he wants makes for a dangerous match-up for the 6-foot-7 striker.

So, to answer the question of whether a Miocic and Browne rivalry is inevitable, I would be surprised to see the fight happen unless both men lost on Saturday night. The main event is a true pick’em fight despite the many skill advantages favoring the challenger. I don’t consider the co-main event to be so close. That’s where the potential rivalry between Miocic and Werdum, or a rubber match between Overeem and Werdum is much more likely. Perhaps Browne can get a win or two and flirt with the title, but I don’t see him getting a crack at the belt anytime soon. My entire argument could be moot if Browne lands a few elbows to the side of Werdum’s head on a takedown entry. However, I just don’t see how Werdum will make the same mistakes he did against Miocic. The Brazilian gets his hand raised and pushes Browne outside of the title mix for the time being.


Huntemann: Wait, so we consider 34 years old (the age of both Browne and Miocic) to be “young,” still? Sweet. Now I don’t feel so old after turning 32 last week. (I didn’t get a birthday greeting from any of you guys either. Just saying.) Oh, right. The fights. I think Overeem is the most dangerous match-up Miocic could have had for his first title defense. Overeem has been all over the world, fought basically everyone there is to fight and is one of most dangerous strikers at heavyweight.

Both he and Miocic are perfectly capable of landing a one-punch knockout, so I wouldn’t expect this fight to go the distance. However, people are underestimating Miocic, which is funny since he’s the champion. We all saw what he did to Werdum back in May, right? Werdum was seen as a champion on the rise — ironic, since he’s 39 — with Muay Thai skills and the backing of King’s MMA, which has become one of the premier gyms in MMA. Miocic shocked the world when he knocked out Werdum on Werdum’s home soil in Brazil.

Now Miocic will defend his belt on his home turf against Overeem. Even if you think “The Reem” will win, let’s not forget that before his recent winning streak, he had a very uneven UFC career that included the losses to Rothwell, Browne and Bigfoot. Overeem has finished his last two fights against high-level strikers in definitive fashion, though. So I really think we’ll see a highlight-worthy finish in this fight.

As far as the second part of this question goes, Browne just lucked out with Werdum’s original opponent, Rothwell, dropping out because of injury. Kudos to Browne for stepping up to the plate, but I don’t see his fight with Werdum going any better than their first meeting two years ago. Werdum will put on another impressive performance and solidify his claim to a title rematch.




Phil “CM Punk” Brooks is finally set to make his UFC debut. Will the former WWE superstar impress? If so, how quickly does the UFC push him into fights against more experienced opponents?

Huntemann: Here’s a fun fact that probably puts me on par with many MMA fans. Prior to starting my MMA fandom in 2009, I was a pro-wrestling nerd. From the age of 7 until I was 25 or 26, I was as big a pro-wrestling fan as you would find. I was a fan of CM Punk in the WWE too, so when I saw him appear at the UFC pay-per-view in late December a couple years ago and announce he was going to fight in the UFC, I’m not going to lie, I thought it was pretty cool.

Now, do I think Punk will impress in his debut fight against Mickey Gall? To be honest, I’m not sure. I’ve watched the documentary series the UFC put together about Punk getting ready for his first fight — I’m one of the very few people who are watching it, if the abysmal ratings are to be believed — and he very much looks like a guy who has no previous MMA experience. The only thing Punk has going for him is that footage is more than a year old, so it’s possible he has made noticeable improvements since then. But if he hasn’t? Then, boy, he’s in for a long night.

Of course, Gall only has five total fights (three amateur, two professional) on his resume, so it’s not like Gall has a tremendous advantage in experience over Punk. An advantage? Sure. But is Gall miles and miles ahead of Punk? Not necessarily. Also, the two guys Gall defeated in his professional career each made their pro debut against Gall. So, I think people who expect Punk to be annihilated in short order in this fight will be disappointed.

I expect a very cautious approach by both guys. Whether or not Punk admits it, he will have butterflies when he steps into the Octagon and therefore will take a defensive approach. Gall might be amped to take out the former pro wrestler, but I also think he doesn’t want to take unnecessary risks and suffer a “humiliating” loss. This fight goes the distance, and it won’t be particularly exciting to watch. Also, even if Punk defeats Gall, I wouldn’t count on him to face Robbie Lawler in his next fight. Just saying.


Aittama: I could definitely see the fight being a tepid affair. However, I think Gall goes for broke early. He has the opportunity of welcoming Punk to the Octagon for the first time. I believe Gall wants and believes he will run through Punk. There is something to be said of the confidence of Gall. He was brought in during UFC President Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight show to specifically face Punk. Gall called out the former WWE wrestler after winning his professional MMA debut. He then found himself in a superfight eliminator when he took on MMA media personality and kickboxer Mike Jackson. It wasn’t a close fight, as Gall blitzed Jackson with punches and sunk in the rear-naked choke shortly after. Jackson’s inexperience in the ring was on full display in the UFC 196 fight. Could Punk fall to a similar fate when he first steps inside the Octagon?

No one really knows what will happen until Punk finally steps into the cage. Former UFC lightweight champion Anthony Pettis commented on Punk’s ability during their training at Roufusport in Milwaukee. Pettis said the man chasing his MMA dream has plenty of heart. As we know, when the skills and athletic abilities of fighters are equal, often times the fighter with the most heart and willpower can usually take a beating and come back stronger as the fight progresses.

The skill level is a major question mark for Punk in this fight. He trained in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under the Gracie family lineage before ever taking up his pursuit of combat sports. Training in a gym and getting inside of the cage are two very different things, however. Once you step through that door and onto the mat, the feeling can often be overwhelming. Punk made a living in the WWE by performing in front of large crowds of people. However, the pressure he will feel in a competitive endeavor will be like nothing he has ever felt while wrestling inside of the WWE ring.

I, too, was a fan of pro wrestling as a kid. My days as a die-hard WWE fan waned as I began to pick up my martial arts training as a young teen. I will occasionally catch the obscure Japanese pro-wrestling event, but for the most part my days of watching fake fighting are over. There just isn’t enough time in the day for the average sports fan to be up-to-date on the ins and outs of every real sport, let alone the ones purely for entertainment. My obsession for the past 14 years has lied inside of a cage, and I don’t mean the steel cage. Punk won’t have the cage lowered down from the ceiling or need a ladder to grab a belt. He needs to shred his WWE personality, strap on the UFC gloves and get ready for what could be one of the greatest moments of his life — or maybe one of the worst beatdowns in the UFC’s 23-year history. We truly don’t know what to expect until Punk makes the walk to the cage and “Big” John McCarthy yells, “Let’s get it on!”




Despite his first-round loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 200, Travis Browne possibly seems in line for another opportunity at a title shot if he defeats Fabricio Werdum in the UFC 203 co-main event. This is Werdum’s first fight since losing the belt to Stipe Miocic earlier this year. Should Browne be considered for a title shot if he wins? Will Browne avenge his decision loss to Werdum from 2014?

Aittama: I was a little surprised to see this question geared toward Browne. Yes, he is still in title contention despite his loss against Velasquez not even two months ago, but let’s not kid ourselves here. Velasquez absolutely dominated “Hapa” from bell to bell. It didn’t even take Velasquez the entire five minutes in the first round to decimate Browne. And Velasquez was returning from his own layoff of more than a year after losing the belt to Werdum in Mexico City.

Werdum is the fighter we should be talking about. He already holds a win over Browne in a fight that displayed the King’s MMA product’s expanded striking arsenal and ability to control a fight for the full 25 minutes. Werdum strung together five wins on his way to the interim title, including victories over former Pride champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, former K-1 champion Mark Hunt and the aforementioned Browne. He put Hunt away with a stepping knee in the second frame to capture the belt. He went to war with Velasquez at UFC 188 to capture the undisputed title with a third-round guillotine choke submission. The win put Werdum in the discussion of the greatest heavyweights of all time based on his stellar record that includes wins over Fedor Emelianenko, Alistair Overeem, Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva and Roy Nelson.

That’s why the focus on Browne in this fight is so confusing. It’s not like the 6-foot-7 athlete is stepping into the prime of his career. The 34-year-old has traded wins and losses since dropping the unanimous decision to Werdum at UFC on Fox 11. He earned stoppages of former UFC fighters Brendan Schaub and Matt Mitrione, but fell short against Andrei Arlovski in a “Fight of the Year” contender. Browne’s wins over Overeem and Josh Barnett look great on the Hawaiian’s resume, but let’s not forget how short the Barnett fight was and how close Browne was from being stopped by Overeem before stopping him with a front kick.

I haven’t observed the consistency needed for me to consider Browne the next title challenger. The fight is set up for one fighter to grasp the opportunity and put on an impressive performance for a potential title shot. I could see an angle to sell a Browne and Overeem rematch if both men were to win their respective bouts at UFC 203. However, the likelihood of wins for both fighters is slim. If Browne can beat Werdum and continue to impress in his following bouts, then I would like to see him get his shot at the title. For now, there are two quality contenders waiting in the wings: Velasquez and Junior dos Santos. There are a few other fighters just outside title contention, too, including Barnett and Derrick Lewis.

And with all of that said, I don’t see many paths to victory for Browne against the former champion. Werdum comes back to the Octagon re-invigorated and hungry for redemption.


Huntemann: Gee, don’t hold back man. Tell us how you really feel.

Browne is surprisingly the choice to be the first fight for Werdum after the Brazilian lost the title to Miocic. He’s there instead of someone who may be more deserving of a title shot, like Velasquez. However, if Browne could somehow manage to pull off the upset against Werdum, then he has as much chance of receiving a title shot as anyone. Granted, Browne was a replacement opponent for Werdum, but as they say, a closed mouth doesn’t get fed. Bully for Browne for stepping up.

The heavyweight division is in a weird place right now. There’s no real bona fide No. 1 contender. Werdum hasn’t received his rematch. Velasquez demolished Browne at UFC 200, but given Velasquez’s injury history, can we count on him to stay healthy long enough to receive another shot at the belt? Hell, people are floating the possibility of Barnett as a title contender after he defeated Arlovski last weekend in Germany. Barnett. Just think about that. I haven’t even mentioned dos Santos, either.

All that said, Werdum was dominant when he and Browne faced off the first time in 2014. I don’t see that changing. Werdum became better after that fight and enjoyed a reign as champion, whereas Browne basically seemed to stagnate in his career. Werdum is driven to regain his title, and he will make pretty easy work of Browne to get another shot at the belt.



Bantamweight prospect Jimmie Rivera is set to face his toughest opponent to date. Can Rivera extend his winning streak to 19 against perennial contender Urijah Faber? If Rivera pulls off the upset, who should he face next in the division?

Huntemann: We’re definitely witnessing the downward slide of Faber’s illustrious career. He was “The Man” and the coolest cat around in the WEC and when he first came to the UFC in 2010. He’s had some great moments and performances in the UFC, including his wins over guys like Brian Bowles, Michael McDonald and Alex Caceres. But facts are facts, and Faber has lost his last seven title fights and was thoroughly outclassed (again) by UFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz at UFC 199.

Faber, 37, is on the wrong side of 35. He is like that guy who still hangs out at the sports bar in your hometown, even though he’s far and away the oldest person there and the bar typically only caters to college students. I don’t mean to sound harsh, but Faber is really and truly a gatekeeper at this stage in his career.

This is why I think he comes up short against Rivera. Even if Faber represents Rivera’s toughest test to date, Rivera hasn’t lost since his second-ever pro fight in 2008. He doesn’t have many finishes among his 18 wins, and Faber is still tough enough that he will make Rivera go the distance. But Rivera is younger, faster and more explosive. He’s already shown he can land the big knockout in the UFC when he finished Marcus Brimage in his UFC debut.

If Rivera defeats Faber, the UFC should welcome him to the top 10 at bantamweight and pair him with another young, exciting fighter who’s still looking to make a name for himself: Aljamain Sterling. That would be an exciting match-up.


Aittama: I agree with my colleague’s opinion that Faber is on the downside of his MMA career. It’s hard to say that Faber has slipped greatly after spending more than a decade ranked in the top 10 at featherweight and bantamweight. However, Faber has struggled more and more with the level of fighters he used to blow out of the water. The former WEC champion was tested by Francisco Rivera in 2014, and he took losses to former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar and, most recently, the aforementioned Cruz. Those losses don’t stick out — both were expected — but the Edgar loss in October 2015 was Faber’s first non-title fight loss since 2005 and only his second non-title fight loss in his entire career.

On paper, these are numbers that are hard to match in any division and at any level. Faber has spent more time in the top-10 rankings than Rivera has spent time fighting. Rivera still hasn’t cracked the top 10 despite his monumental 18-fight winning streak. The 27-year-old picked up solid wins against top prospect Pedro Munhoz and former top-10 fighter Iuri Alcântara in his past two bouts. Rivera was eliminated during his bid on the 14th season of The Ultimate Fighter when he faced future top-10 featherweight Dennis Bermudez. Rivera wasn’t ready for the big time in 2011, but by the time he stepped into the cage in 2015 he was a well-oiled machine working toward his place among the bantamweight elite.

Faber lost in his fourth attempt to win the UFC bantamweight title (a ridiculous number of chances) when he fell short against Cruz in June. The “California Kid” certainly could enter the Octagon on Saturday and put on a stellar performance to walk away with his hand raised against the rising prospect. However, Rivera presents some major issues with his speed, athleticism and overall boxing ability. Rivera can hang with Faber in the wrestling exchanges, but it does get a little dangerous the more Rivera finds himself in transitions with the vaunted submission artist. Faber has a knack for wrapping up the guillotine or working his way to the back for the rear-naked choke. That’s how I could see Faber getting the job done.

I would like to see Rivera make positive gains in a division that’s finally getting the influx of young talent we’ve been waiting for. If he can pull off the big win in Cleveland, the UFC has a few options for Rivera going forward. I like my colleague’s idea of a match-up against Sterling. Rivera could also be matched with a top-10 bantamweight on a winning streak, like Bryan Caraway or the undefeated Cody Garbrandt. Garbrandt has made it apparent that Caraway turned down a fight between the two. If Rivera gets the job done, a match-up between him and Faber’s Team Alpha Male prospect could be a potential No. 1 contender fight. The promotion has options whether Rivera gets in the win column or tastes defeat for the first time in eight years.



Which fight is the sleeper match-up on this card?

Aittama: One of the flyweight division’s top fighters finally returns to the Octagon after more than 18 months on the shelf. Ian McCall, the former consensus No.1-ranked flyweight in the world, makes his return after struggles with injuries, personal issues and, most recently, his opponent badly missing weight before the fight. McCall was scheduled to face top-15 ranked Justin Scoggins at UFC 201 before the 24-year-old prospect was pulled from the bout due to issues while cutting weight. McCall has redirected his anger and frustrations at the last man Scoggins was able to defeat, Ray Borg.

Borg, 23, has won three of his five UFC bouts. His only setbacks came against the aforementioned Scoggins and former top-10 flyweight Dustin Ortiz. “The Tazmexican Devil” brings an exciting submission attack to the Octagon that should push McCall in all of the right areas of the fight game.

McCall dropped his last outing against an overweight John Lineker at UFC 183. McCall won’t have to contend with one of the pound-for-pound hardest punchers in the sport when he takes on Borg. McCall’s extensive wrestling background and improved striking gives him the slight advantage heading into the bout. However, the more than a year and a half away from the cage is the great equalizer in this fight.


Huntemann: That’s a good choice, but I have my eye on (see what I did there?) the preliminary bout between Jessica Eye and Bethe Correia.

I’m just really hoping this is a good ol’ fashioned slugfest. Both Eye and Correia love to stand and bang, and both — especially Eye — are in dire need of a win. Eye has lost four out of five and only defeated Leslie Smith thanks to a doctor’s stoppage. Correia has lost two in a row, albeit with one of those losses coming to former UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey. The loser of this fight likely faces the chopping block, so both women will come in desperate to put on an impressive performance and secure a victory. Hopefully that means lots of flying fists and a knockout.




Aittama’s Picks

Overeem
Werdum
Gall
Rivera
Andrade
Eye
Lentz
Tavares
McCall
Spencer
Dollaway
Dober



Huntemann’s Picks

Miocic
Werdum
Gall
Rivera
Calderwood
Eye
Lentz
Tavares
McCall
Medeiros
Dollaway
Dober
 

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UFC 203
from Cage Rank




Miocic BY KO ROUND 3

Werdum BY Decision

Faber BY Submission ROUND 3

McCall BY Decision

Eye BY Decision

Lentz BY Decision

Dober BY Submission ROUND 2

Calderwood BY Decision

Tavares BY Decision

Dollaway BY Decision

Spencer BY Decision
 

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UFC 203: Fantasy Cheat Sheet
from Damon Martin - UFC.com




SPLIT DECISION

These are the fights that are just too close to call, but a few minor differences between favorite and underdog could lead one fighter to victory and the other to defeat.


Stipe Miocic (-135 favorite) vs. Alistair Overeem (+115 underdog)

The heavyweight main event has all the makings of an explosive battle between two knockout strikers that could last 30 seconds or 25 minutes, and that's what makes it a nearly impossible pick to make. Miocic is an outstanding boxer with very quick footwork and dynamite in his hands, while Overeem is arguably the best kickboxer to ever step foot in the Octagon thanks to an arsenal of weapons that range from technical punching combinations to flying knees and kicks that come from every angle.

While Miocic is best known for his hands, the former Cleveland State wrestler also has a very good ground game that he can show off at any time. Miocic averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage, so he's more than happy to put this fight on the ground, where he can control Overeem with superior wrestling. On the feet, Miocic is a volume striker, which can be a rarity amongst heavyweight fighters. He averages just under five significant strikes landed per minute with over 50 percent accuracy. Of course, playing the striking game with Overeem can be hazardous to your health, especially considering he has a high output with even better accuracy at just over 60 percent when he's standing.

It's not fair to say this fight really could come down to who lands first, but that's how good and how powerful Miocic and Overeem will be coming into this fight. Miocic has to show confidence in the face of a lot of firepower coming from his opponent while Overeem can't get too cocky with his striking or he'll get buried under the Ohioan's fists before the first round is over. If there's one advantage Miocic maintains it's the fact that he's been in some serious battles in recent fights and his chin is rock solid. Miocic probably doesn't want to eat too many shots from Overeem, but he's shown the kind of durability to weather a storm, and that could play into his favor if these two engage in a firefight.

Overeem is a veteran and he's no stranger to big exchanges, but he's suffered more knockouts during his career and Miocic has the kind of fight altering power that could find out just how much damage he's willing to take before crumbling to the mat. With a hometown crowd behind him, Miocic should find a way to surprise Overeem with some kind of fight ending combination that will keep the title in Cleveland for at least one more night.

Prediction: Stipe Miocic by KO, Round 3



Fabricio Werdum (-210 favorite) vs. Travis Browne (+175 underdog)

Fabricio Werdum returns from a knockout loss to Miocic in his last fight as he faces familiar foe Travis Browne, who is looking for redemption from their previous bout in 2014 as well as his own loss at UFC 200 to former champion Cain Velasquez.

Ahead of their first fight, most predicted that Werdum would look for a ground battle while Browne would try to keep thing standing, but it certainly didn't play out that way. Werdum showed off an incredibly technical boxing game that befuddled Browne at every turn and the big Hawaiian simply had no answer to his opponent's superior striking over five rounds. Werdum needs to stick to that game plan again if he wants to topple Browne and return to the win column at UFC 203.

During his streak to win the heavyweight title, Werdum showed incredible patience while attacking his opponents on the feet with a wide variety of strikes he learned under the tutelage of famed trainer Rafael Cordeiro. Werdum never got overly aggressive and instead stuck to a sound strategy to land stiff jabs from the outside until it was time to explode with a big fight finishing combination. He went away from that in the loss to Miocic and he can't do that again and expect to beat Browne on Saturday night.

For Browne, the key is dragging Werdum into a dogfight and never allowing the Brazilian to sit back in the pocket where he's most comfortable. Browne has to be willing to draw Werdum into deep waters with big exchanges while also looking to maul him against the cage. Browne has a tall frame where he's able to rain down elbows from above when he's against the cage, and bullying Werdum to make him uncomfortable in those exchanges will go a long way towards victory.

Still, the problems Browne had with Werdum in the first fight still exist. Unless Werdum gets overzealous looking for a highlight reel finish, he should be able to frustrate Browne with his superior boxing over the course of three rounds. It might not be flashy, but it will get the job done.

Prediction: Fabricio Werdum by unanimous decision



Jessica Andrade vs. Joanne Calderwood

This strawweight matchup between Jessica Andrade and Joanne Calderwood may end up being the fight that steals the whole show because both of them are known as knockout strikers with a huge arsenal of weapons that will be unleashed when they meet in the center of the Octagon.

Andrade made a thunderous debut at 115 pounds when she dispatched former title challenger Jessica Penne in brutal fashion. The Brazilian is an extremely heavy-handed Muay Thai practitioner who always looks to overwhelm her opponents with a barrage of strikes that should remind you of John Lineker when he swarms on a fighter willing to trade punches with him. Andrade didn't seem to miss a step when she moved down to the lower weight class, and now she's the stronger fighter with a ton of power in her hands going against anybody in this division.

As for Calderwood, she put on her most impressive fight to date as she picked apart Valerie Letourneau earlier this year with a jaw dropping performance. Calderwood has always been regarded as one of the top strawweights in the promotion, but she had failed to live up to expectations until she unleashed a picture perfect outing against Letourneau. Teaming up with famed trainer Firas Zahabi has done wonders for Calderwood and she's spent another camp in Montreal, so that will bode well for her going into the bout with Andrade at UFC 203.

In terms of the matchup, Andrade is all about power and aggressiveness, so if she can trap Calderwood against the cage and start unleashing bombs, it could be a bad night for the Scottish strawweight. On the reverse side, if Calderwood can keep this fight in the middle of the Octagon while using her distance striking and deceptive kicking attacks, she could give Andrade nightmares by the time the third round begins. The real question is whether or not Andrade can adjust to a fight that doesn't go her way early and if she can maintain a gas tank late. Calderwood is a proven warrior who can endure some punishment to dish out even more of her own, and if she's on point like the last fight against Letourneau, she could be en route to another big victory in Cleveland.

Prediction: Joanne Calderwood by unanimous decision



Jessica Eye vs. Bethe Correia

Another potential Fight of the Night comes in the women's bantamweight division, as Jessica Eye takes on Bethe Correia in a bout that has to be seen as a must win for both fighters after recent losses. Eye and Correia are extremely evenly matched, especially considering they both typically look to use fast footwork and quick hands to damage their opponents on the feet.

Correia lands with incredible volume while hitting her opponents with 5.7 significant strikes per minute with over 50 percent accuracy. Meanwhile, Eye fires back with 3.5 strikes landed per minute with just under 40 percent accuracy. Neither fighter has shown great defense on the feet, so it really comes down to who can land the quicker combinations with better accuracy round after round in this one.

When she's at her best, Eye is a fierce boxer with lightning quick reaction time and an incredible stiff jab that she can follow with power punches behind it. Eye is at her best when she's landing with rapid fire combinations while not sitting in the pocket to get caught up into big exchanges. Now the same could easily be said about Correia as well, but she doesn’t seem to land with the same kind of technical precision as her opponent, and that could hurt when it comes to the scorecards at the end of the fight.

Correia tends to brawl a little bit more in her fights, which leaves her open to strong counters, and Eye is more than capable of stinging her with two or three punches before exiting out again without receiving much punishment in return. Eye has faced stylistic nightmares in recent fights, with a trio of wrestlers accounting for three losses in a row, but knowing that Correia will likely not even think about a takedown should allow her to let her hands go, and that's a very good thing as the Ohio native tries to get a win in front of her hometown crowd.

Prediction: Jessica Eye by unanimous decision



KNOCKOUT PICKS


These are the fights that appear to be a little more one-sided, but remember that this is MMA, where anything can - and usually does - happen.


Mickey Gall (-280 favorite) vs. CM Punk (+240 underdog)

There are a lot of unknowns for former WWE superstar CM Punk as he makes his UFC debut and that's part of the reason why Mickey Gall remains a solid favorite and a big pick going into their fight on Saturday night. Gall has shown what he can do through an amateur career and two professional fights, including his UFC debut back in February, when he made short work of Mike Jackson in less than a round. Gall is a very good Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner with power in his hands and he's been doing martial arts of one form or another for most of his life while dedicating himself to MMA for the past seven or eight years.

Punk is obviously stepping into this fight as a novice with no previous fight experience or training outside of some rudimentary grappling training that he did over the years. He's been working tirelessly with coach Duke Roufus over the past 18 months to get ready for this moment, but it's so hard to predict how much he's learned or what he'll look like when he finally steps into the Octagon with an opponent.

Those question marks, along with Punk's learning curve after no prior experience, make him a huge gamble going into this fight and Gall certainly looks like the kind of prospect who would have eventually made it to the UFC one day regardless of this bout coming together. That all adds up to a good start for Gall and a rough welcome for Punk when this fight is over.

Prediction: Mickey Gall by submission, Round 1



Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera

Statistics don't always tell the whole story going into any fight, but it's hard to ignore the gaudy record Urijah Faber has amassed in non-title bouts during his career. Faber has only fallen once when a title isn't on the line and that came over a year ago when he ventured up to 145 pounds for a special attraction fight against Frankie Edgar. Now Faber is looking to bounce back from a one-sided decision to bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz back in June so obviously, his motivation has to be taken into account, but the former WEC champion still has the ability to be a top five bantamweight and he'll look to prove that against rising star Jimmie Rivera at UFC 203.

Rivera has looked great through his first three fights in the UFC while going a perfect 3-0, but this will be a massive step up in competition for him. Rivera has shown well-rounded skills throughout his trio of wins, with nearly five significant strikes landed per minute while also mixing in takedowns throughout each of his performances. Rivera will definitely keep this fight close so Faber can't make any mistakes, but "The California Kid" just has the veteran experience to get the job done in a matchup like this.

Faber has shown good boxing over the years while also possessing one of the best submission arsenals in the division, especially when he gets caught in a scramble with an opponent on the ground or against the cage. Faber will actually have a slight height advantage over Rivera, which is a rarity in most of his fights, so he'll look to land strikes at range before swooping for a takedown to keep the New Jersey native guessing.

This fight won't be a blowout and it probably won't be a finish, but Faber has the veteran mentality to do enough to get the job done over three rounds to get the win.

Prediction: Urijah Faber by unanimous decision
 

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CM Punk ...


“I definitely see myself winning and if I had to pick, I’d say TKO.”
 

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UFC 203: Preview and Predictions
from Riley Kontek - Fan Sided





Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem

The main event should be a good one with heavyweight gold on the line, as Stipe Miocic looks to defend his belt for the first time against former Strikeforce champion Alistair Overeem. This might be the most evenly matched heavyweight bout possible for a title bout. While Overeem is known for his kickboxing prowess, it’s Miocic’s boxing that has looked top-notch in recent fights and earned him his victories. And while Overeem is a striker, he has shown an improvement in his wrestling and ground game in recent times. Miocic is a wrestler, so he can probably do a decent job at defending the clinch and takedown attempts of Overeem.

This is a coin toss match, but I think Miocic defends his home turf in a great fight.



Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne

Heavyweights occupy the co-main event, as former champion Fabricio Werdum competes for the first time since losing the belt against Travis Browne. Browne is a big striker that has kind of gotten away from that strategy in recent fights. A further problem is that Werdum has improved his striking ten-fold, making this competitive. The other issue is that Werdum is world-class on the ground, and if he gets Browne there, it will be a quick night.

Either way, Werdum should take this bout by whatever method necessary.



CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall

WWE star CM Punk will finally make his MMA debut in the next bout against undefeated Mickey Gall. The UFC committed to Gall, but that was before they realized that he is actually a very serviceable prospect. On the other hand, Punk is completely inexperienced, still a novice and has a ton of mileage on his body from the more enduring world of pro wrestling. It pains me to say I don’t see any scenario where Punk takes this.

Gall will take this bout however he pleases.



Urijah Faber vs. Jimmie Rivera

The old guard and the new blood will compete at bantamweight next, as Urijah Faber looks to push toward another title shot against young gun Jimmie Rivera. Faber and Rivera have very similar styles and toughness. The biggest difference between the two is youth. Faber has a ton of mileage on him and is past his prime. Rivera is a hot prospect that has all the makings of a potential title challenger.

Faber is likely the favorite, but I will take Rivera in this fun bout.



Joanne Calderwood vs. Jessica Andrade

Strawweight sluggers will duke it out next, as Scotland’s Joanne Calderwood takes on Brazilian powerhouse Jessica Andrade. This matchup will see technical prowess take on power. Calderwood is very quick and technical, using movement and clinch work to tire opponents. Her knees and elbows are especially dangerous. Andrade is more deliberate in her attempts to land home run shots. She can more than definitely knock anybody out, but if her movement is to plodding, she is going to get lit up.

Andrade is a dangerous adversary for anybody, but I think Calderwood and her technique prevail.



Jessica Eye vs. Bethe Correia

In the prelim headliner, Cleveland’s own Jessica Eye looks to defend her home turf against former title challenger Bethe Correia. Both Eye and Correia are strikers that primarily use boxing as their main weapon. Eye has proven to be tough as nails, as has Correia. The difference is Correia has been overhyped as a result of her title shot against Ronda Rousey in the past.

Eye’s ground game is better and I think she is technically more sound than Correia. She wins in front of her home crowd, igniting the fans into a frenzy.



Nik Lentz vs. Michael McBride

On late notice, Michael McBride gets the call to perform for the UFC, but gets perennial top-25 fighter Nik Lentz in his debut. Lentz has a simple game plan and that is to get his opponent to the mat. He has good ground skills from the top, which is what he’ll try to show against McBride. McBride has a good record, but it’s against low-level guys on the regional level.

Lentz should have no problem disposing of his nemesis in this one.



Caio Magalhaes vs. Brad Tavares

Middleweights collide in the next bout, as Brad Tavares returns from a long layoff to take on Brazil’s Caio Magalhaes. Magalhaes is a grappler who is coming off the disgraceful suspension for spitting blood at Josh Samman. He is a grinder that will force clinches and takedowns on opponents.

Tavares is a big-time striker with good takedown defense. He will defend the shots of Magalhaes and use his supreior striking to finish Magalhaes before the judges intervene.



Ian McCall vs. Ray Borg

The flyweights are up next, as Ian McCall returns from a long layoff to take on the young and talented Ray Borg. McCall’s long layoff is a huge concern. Before the break, he had been one of the best in the world at flyweight, but his disappearance has caused questions. Borg has been active and has been one of the best young fighters at 125. In terms of matchup, they have similar skills, but McCall has more mileage on his body.

I think Borg wins this fight in what should be an exciting bout.



Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer

The Fight Pass headliner should be a good one, as welterweights Yancy Medeiros and Sean Spencer compete in what should be a barn burner. Both Medeiros and Spencer are both strikers. Medeiros holds the power edge, while Spencer holds the technical edge. In terms of ground work, I think Medeiros holds a big edge, which may be important here. Spencer has shown some solid takedown defense, but he gives up size, aggression and power to Medeiros which is a big difference.

Medeiros wins.



CB Dollaway vs. Francimar Barroso

Light heavyweights collide in the next outing, as CB Dollaway looks to make 205 a permanent home against Brazilian grinder Francimar Barroso. Dollaway and Barroso are actually both grinders. Barroso likes to work takedowns and work from top position, but he’s not going to outwrestle Dollaway. On the feet, Dollaway’s improvements are evident and he has a good amount of power in his hands. Overall, he’s a better fighter than Barroso.

Dollaway takes the win and establishes himself in the top-15 at light heavyweight.



Drew Dober vs. Jason Gonzalez

On late notice, TUF 22 veteran Jason Gonzalez gets a shot in the UFC when he takes on UFC veteran Drew Dober. Dober is a brawler that is aggressive on the feet and has a chin made of granite. He will push forward and look for knockout blows from the onset of the fight. Gonzalez is a massive lightweight who will have a strength advantage, as well as a wrestling advantage. I think he can get down Dober and keep him there. From there, he can tire Dober out and pound him with strikes.

Gonzalez takes this in an upset.



Damir Hadzovic vs. Yusuke Kasuya

Kicking off UFC 203 will be an international affair, as European Damir Hadzovic takes on Asian Yusuke Kasuya. Hadzovic is an exciting fighter that is known for his aggression and powerful striking. He moves forward throughout the fight and looks for the massive bomb that will end his opponent’s night. Kasuya will want to grapple with Hadzovic, but I don’t think he will be able to get that done with the more powerful European.

Hadzovic wins by knockout.
 

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UFC 203
from The MMA Way




Mark's Picks

Miocic TKO Round 3
Werdum DEC
Brooks DEC
Faber DEC
Andrade DEC
Eye DEC
Lentz DEC
Tavares DEC
McCall DEC
Medeiros DEC
Dollaway DEC
Gonzalez DEC
Hadzovic DEC



James' Picks

Miocic TKO Round 2
Werdum SUB Round 2
Gall SUB Round 2
Faber DEC
Calderwood DEC
Eye DEC
Taisumov DEC
Tavares DEC
McCall DEC
Medeiros TKO Round 2
Barroso DEC
Gonzalez SUB Round 2
Hadzovic DEC
 

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I'm waiting for the prop on Gall in round 1.

I'd be surprised if CM Punk makes it out of the first round.
 

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CM Punk vs Mickey Gall ... Props




1203 Punk / Gall goes 3 round distance +445
1204 Fight won't go 3 round distance -660


1205 Punk wins inside distance +509
1206 Not Punk inside distance -820


1207 Punk wins by 3 round decision +950
1208 Not Punk by 3 round decision -1700


1209 Gall wins inside distance -282
1210 Not Gall inside distance +222


1211 Gall wins by 3 round decision +795
1212 Not Gall by 3 round decision -1455


1213 Punk / Gall draw +10000
1214 Fight not a draw -30000


1215 Punk wins in round 1 +1050
1216 Any other result -2150


1217 Punk wins in round 2 +1300
1218 Any other result -3000


1219 Punk wins in round 3 +1750
1220 Any other result -5250


1221 Gall wins in round 1 -120
1222 Any other result -120


1223 Gall wins in round 2 +425
1224 Any other result -675


1225 Gall wins in round 3 +1000
1226 Any other result -2000


1227 Punk wins by submission +1080
1228 Any other result -2240


1229 Punk wins by TKO/KO +800
1230 Any other result -1700


1231 Gall wins by submission +110
1232 Any other result -150


1233 Gall wins by TKO/KO +216
1234 Any other result -296


1235 Punk / Gall starts round 3 +267
1236 Fight won't start round 3 -357


1237 Punk / Gall starts round 2 +112
1238 Fight won't start round 2 -142


1239 Punk (scorecards = no action) +442
1240 Gall (scorecards = no action) -653
 

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Stipe vs Reem is gonna be great fight. I think Stipe KO's Reem. He has movement of a 185 pounder in a heavyweight frame. CM fake is going to get starched by that young hungry bull Mickey Gall.
 

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UFC 203 predictions: Fight Pass 'Prelims' undercard preview, Pt. 1
from Patrick L. Stumberg - MMA Mania





170 lbs.: Yancy Medeiros vs. Sean Spencer

Yancy Medeiros (12-4) opened his UFC career with two losses and a win overturned because of marijuana, but managed to rebound with two "Performance of the Night"-winning submissions. A 1-2 stretch followed, leading him to make his Welterweight debut this Saturday.

He has knocked out six opponents and submitted another three.

Sean Spencer (12-5) stepped up to Middleweight on short notice in his Octagon debut, resulting in a submission loss to Rafael Natal, but he found more success at his native Welterweight. Following a horrid robbery loss to Cathal Pendred, he suffered a knockout loss to Mike Pyle that earned them "Fight of the Night" honors.

His four stoppages include two knockouts and two submissions.

Medeiros’ unique striking and opportunistic submission game are hampered by porous striking defense. Luckily, Spencer is not a big hitter by any stretch of the imagination. "Black Magic" has all of two knockout wins, which came in his first two professional fights. In short, he’s someone Medeiros should be able to ply his craft against without fear, especially since Spencer doesn’t have a great takedown gain.

The one issue may be that Medeiros relies on pressuring and overpowering foes, which he may find more difficult at 170 pounds than he did at Lightweight. Still, he’s the bigger hitter and better overall finisher. Expect a mid-round submission in transition, possibly off of a knockdown.

Prediction: Medeiros via second-round submission




205 lbs.: C.B. Dollaway vs. Francimar Barroso

Four wins in five fights -- the sole loss an inexplicable robbery against Tim Boetsch that C.B. Dollaway (15-8) dominated -- bumped The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 7 runner up higher in UFC's Middleweight division than he’d ever been before. "The Doberman" enters Saturday’s bout on a three-fight losing streak, however, including a stunning one-punch defeat to Nate Marquardt in his most recent effort.

He has knocked out six opponents overall.

It’s been a rather interesting UFC road for Francimar Barroso (18-5), who won three of his first four bouts in the promotion in a streak that saw him accidentally punt Ryan Jimmo’s balls into next week en route to an underwhelming decision. Last time out, he slugged it out with Nikita Krylov in Rotterdam before tapping to a rear-naked choke in the second round.

This will mark his Middleweight debut.

Barroso can grapple and Barroso can strike. Everything in-between seems to be a work-in-progress. His long kicks and wild punches don’t synergize with his middling takedown takedown game, leaving him forever stuck below the elite level. Dollaway’s not elite himself, but he’s the better boxer and very well-equipped to shut down Barroso’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

The real question here is where Dollaway’s head is -- a significant part of his success lies in his newfound confidence in his striking, confidence that Marquardt’s right hand could have thoroughly obliterated. He has faced adversity and come back before, though, so I say he controls the striking for a decision win.

Prediction: Dollaway via unanimous decision




155 lbs.: Drew Dober vs. Jason Gonzalez

The "submission loss" Drew Dober (16-7) suffered at the hands of Leandro Silva may have been laughable, but there was nothing bogus about the guillotine Efrain Escudero forced him to tap to two Junes ago. With his back against the wall, Dober used his wrestling to upset Scott Holtzman at UFC 195 to earn his second UFC victory.

He will give up six inches of height to the 6’2" Jason Gonzalez (10-2).

As part of Team Urijah Faber, Gonzalez knocked out Tim Welch on TUF 22 before losing a decision to Abner Lloveras in the quarterfinals. After taping, he knocked out previously-unbeaten Chris Padilla in his RFA debut this past June.

He steps in for the injured Erik Koch on one month’s notice.

Looking back, I really haven’t given Dober enough credit in my prediction pieces. He’s not a world-beater, of course, but he’s a capable and well-rounded fight who’s incredibly difficult to finish.

In short, a fairly tough match up for Gonzalez, who’s used to finishing foes and whose wrestling failed the test against Lloveras. Without much time to prepare and with the inefficient striking he showed against the Spaniard, I expect him to steadily lose ground to Dober, whose wrestling attack should carry him to a decision win.

Prediction: Dober via unanimous decision
 

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UFC 203: Betting Predictions
from Justin Hartling - Odds Shark




Stipe Miocic vs Alistair Overeem

Stipe Miocic tends to keep a fight standing so he can properly utilize his excellent boxing skills and athleticism. The former gold glove winner is a technical marvel when it comes to boxing, as his ability to plant and throw power in tight spaces is almost unparalleled. Don’t be expecting to see many fancy techniques in the standup game though, as Miocic is a boxer through and through.

Not only is Miocic an excellent striker, but his collegiate background in wrestling makes him a threat while grappling as well. Though he is able to take a fight to the ground, Miocic generally uses his takedowns as a threat more than a weapon. Using the level changing to get his opponents hesitant.

Alistair Overeem has always been one of the deadliest strikers in the heavyweight division. He has a wide array of attacks from every distance and has power in all eight limbs. ‘Reem is also incredibly dangerous in the clinch, as his tight grip and power cause problems for opponents – if you get tied up in the clinch with Overeem then massive knees are incoming. ‘Reem has also done a great job at becoming more measured in the Octagon, which has helped him pick his spots and hide his questionable chin.

Overeem is a surprisingly solid grappler, though many don’t talk too much about it. If he does take the fight to the mat, Overeem is more likely to look to pound on his opponent rather than go for the submission.

This fight is extremely close on paper and could be a grueling battle in the Octagon. However, Miocic is more than skilled and athletic enough to avoid getting caught in the standup game. Plus, he has better wrestling than Overeem. And my rule of thumb, if a fight is close take the better wrestler.

Prediction: Stipe Miocic



Fabricio Werdum vs Travis Browne

Fabricio Werdum is one of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu practitioners in MMA today. ‘Vai Cavalo’ is a world champion BJJ practitioner who has notched 50 percent of his career victories via submission. Once a fight is to the ground there are very few fighters that can defend themselves against his excellent mat skills.

Though his submission skills are highly touted, Werdum also has an underappreciated striking game. He has spent years working under Rafael Codeiro and has earned a black belt in Muay Thai. Though he can strike with his hands, it’s Werdum’s kicks and knees that are his forte. He has grown especially adept at slowing his opponent down with leg kicks.

Travis Browne is a very large individual, as he stands 6’7 with a 79” reach. ‘Hapa’ has plenty of KO power in all of his limbs, though it is his kicks that are the deadliest. He has a knack for tying up his opponent’s neck and landing big knees in the clinch, so fence fighting is usually best avoided against the Hawaiian.

Browne uses his strength and surprising agility to get by, but his technique is far from refined. He can be overly aggressive and makes rash decisions in the Octagon, which has cost him dearly more than once.

These two have already fought and I highly doubt that there is much of a difference between then and now. Werdum is confident in all facets of the game and has no problem standing and striking with Browne. Normally I would say that is dangerous, but Werdum will not be caught off guard following his KO loss to Miocic.

Prediction: Fabricio Werdum



CM Punk vs Mickey Gall

For all the hype around this fight, it is nothing more than a sideshow. I respect CM Punk for giving MMA a try this late in life, but he shouldn’t be near the UFC. Neither should Mickey Gall who has beaten what we will generously call ‘scrubs’ in his two fights.

In all honesty, I’ve been a CM Punk fan since his days in the independent wrestling days so I’m a tad biased on this one. Neither guy deserves the chalk we are seeing, so take a punt on Punk I guess.

Prediction: CM Punk



Urijah Faber vs Jimmie Rivera

Urijah Faber finds himself in familiar territory. He has again lost in a UFC title fight and is now sort of directionless in his career. ‘The California Kid’ is still much of the same fighter that made him so vitally important to the early development of the lighter weight classes in MMA. Faber predicates his fighting style around forward movement, as he is routinely pushing the pace. He is most effective when he is mixing his takedown attempts and strikes to keep his opponent guessing.

The striking game of Faber would basically boil down to advanced basics. This is not a knock against Faber, but rather a statement that he is not going to get too cute with his striking. Though it has yet to get him into too much trouble, his advancing age has seen his chin and power slowly deteriorate. So a headlong attack could prove to be dangerous against a heavy hitter.

Jimmie Rivera is an athletic, high-volume boxer who exudes athleticism. Despite being an aggressive puncher, ‘El Terror’ doesn’t exactly sport power in his hands – with just four career knockout victories. His takedown defense has been spectacular as he has yet to be taken down in his UFC tenure, though his opposition has been just okay.

Rivera is a solid, well-rounded fighter who is making a major step up in competition. He has been good, but we have yet to see if his skills hold up against the elite level fighters.

I think Rivera will put up a better fight than most people expect, but Faber doesn’t lose to non-elite opponents. Rivera is no Jose Aldo, Dominick Cruz or Frankie Edgar. Faber just keeps on doing his thing.

Prediction: Urijah Faber



Jessica Andrade vs Joanne Calderwood

You are not going to find many fighters as aggressive as Jessica Andrade. The Brazilian pushes forward and looks to overwhelm her opponent with a flurry of punches – plus she has the cardio to keep this up for an entire fight. She has looked even better since moving down to 115, as she has maintained her power and cardio while increasing her speed. More than anything, Andrade will look to take the fight to the mat so she can ground and pound.

Andrade is undersized even for the strawweight division and she will enter this fight with the height and reach disadvantage. Though this has yet to hamper her too much in her career, Andrade would be unable to use her pressure-based attack if her opponent can use their length and movement to keep ‘Bate Estaca’ chasing.

Joanne Calderwood is a Muay Thai ace who has been practicing the art since she was 13-years old. ‘Jojo’ excels at controlling the distance with her kicks and knees, but has just as refined striking skills inside the clinch. She has been working on her wrestling, which she will use exclusively in a defensive manner to keep the fight standing.

Jojo is not a ground fighter. When she gets taken to the mat she more or less needs to try and create a sprawl to get the fighting standing again. Her only career loss came against a short-notice newcomer – Maryna Moroz – who took her down and submitted her within two minutes.

Andrade has made a career out of being the smaller fighter and pressuring her way into the clinch to initiate the takedown. However, she has never fought an opponent with such well refined striking skills. Jojo should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and outpoint Andrade.

Prediction: Joanne Calderwood
 

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By The Numbers - UFC 203




8
Current ranking of Stipe Miocic on the UFC pound-for-pound list


198
UFC event where, most recently, Miocic scored a first round knockout of Fabricio Werdum to become the current UFC heavyweight champion


4
First round KO/TKOs by Miocic inside the Octagon


54
Seconds it took for Miocic to score a KO/TKO of former UFC heavyweight champ Andrei Arlovski at UFC 195, which earned a Performance of the Night bonus


35
Seconds it took for Miocic to score a KO/TKO of Fabio Maldonado at The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3 Finale, which earned a Performance of the Night bonus


43
Seconds it took for Miocic to score a KO/TKO of Philip De Fries at UFC on Fuel TV: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger, which earned a Knockout of the Night bonus


5
Fighters in UFC history have scored three knockouts in under a minute each - Miocic, Vitor Belfort, Johny Hendricks, Anthony Johnson and Mike Swick


22:47
Time into the bout where Miocic scored a knockout over Mark Hunt at UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs. Hunt, 3rd latest KO/TKO stoppage in UFC history


361
Total strikes landed by Miocic against Hunt, most landed in a single bout in UFC history


4.93
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by Miocic, 3rd best rate in UFC heavyweight history (min. 5 fights)


566
Significant strikes landed by Miocic inside the Octagon, 5th most in UFC heavyweight history


3
Current ranking of Alistair Overeem as a UFC heavyweight


20
Career KO/TKOs by “The Demolition Man” including his most recent second round KO/TKO of Andrei Arlovski in May


11
Of those KO/TKOs stemmed from a kick or knee strike


76
Significant striking accuracy percentage by Overeem against Arlovski landing 23 of 30 attempts


74.7
Significant striking accuracy percentage by Overeem inside the Octagon, best in UFC history (min. 5 fights and 350 sig. att.)


0
UFC bouts where The Demolition Man has had a significant striking accuracy percentage less than 62%, UFC average significant striking percentage is 42%


+2.92
Significant strike differential per minute rate in favor of Overeem, 5th best in UFC history (min. 5 fights)


17
Career submissions by Overeem


8
Of those submissions were by guillotine choke


1
Current ranking of Fabricio Werdum as a UFC heavyweight


56.5
Significant striking accuracy percentage by former UFC champ Werdum, 4th best among active UFC heavyweights (min. 5 fights and 350 sig. att.)


4.8
Significant strikes landed per minute rate by "Vai Cavalo", 5th best rate among active UFC heavyweights (min. 5 fights)


+2.01
Significant strike differential rate in favor of Werdum, 6th best among active UFC heavyweights (min. 5 fights)


121
Significant strikes landed by Werdum en route to his unanimous decision win over Travis Browne at UFC on FOX: Browne vs. Werdum, 7th most in UFC heavyweight history


188
UFC event where Werdum secured a guillotine choke over Cain Velasquez to win the UFC heavyweight belt


4
Submission wins by Vai Cavalo in UFC/Strikeforce competition, tied for 2nd most in UFC/Strikeforce heavyweight history


6
Current ranking of Travis Browne as a UFC heavyweight


6
UFC post-fight awards by “Hapa”, tied for most in UFC heavyweight history


4
Knockout of the Night bonuses by Browne


6
Finishes by Hapa, tied for 6th most in UFC heavyweight history


2
Fighters in UFC history have finishes two opponents with standing elbow strikes - Browne and Alan Jouban


81
Takedown defense percentage by Browne, 2nd best in UFC heavyweight history behind Andrei Arlovski’s 84.3% (min. 5 fights and 20 opp. att.)
 

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