[h=1]Early betting look for Week 2: Buy Alabama, sell Tennessee[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Three top-10 teams lost in Week 1 when the Oklahoma Sooners, LSU Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish all went down as favorites away from home. We'll check in on whether the oddsmakers still view this crowd as national contenders, as well as tell you which teams you should be buying and selling after Week 1. We'll also examine why the offenses might have the advantages in the upcoming TCU-Arkansas clash -- plus, we'll explain which embattled coach faces the pivotal game that will define his progress after three years of rebuilding.
Portfolio checkup
Buy
Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide confirmed coaches' claims that this is the fastest defense of the Nick Saban era while answering some questions at several position groups. Inexperience in the offensive backfield and defensive depth are still issues, but the 52-6 thrashing of the USC Trojans showcased all-around big-play ability and the monster upside of frosh quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal got great quarterback play against a tough Kansas State Wildcats defense in a 26-13 win, a sign that the Christian McCaffrey-led offense will be a 40-plus points-per-game operation this year.
Kansas State Wildcats: The youngest team of Bill Snyder 2.0, but much better skill position talent than last season and the best defense in the Big 12.
Western Michigan Broncos: Needed a bizarre goal-line turnover to squeak out a 23-22 win over Northwestern, but impressively controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage en route to a 27-15 first-down advantage. Best raw talent in the MAC.
Sell
Tennessee Volunteers: Heralded recruiting classes have ripened into seasoned brigades of upperclassmen, but the overall on-field operation is still prone to mental errors and lacking attention to detail. Overtime battle with Sun Belt entrant Appalachian State looked like a clash of equals. Regime change should follow disappointing campaign.
Hold
Michigan State Spartans: Uninspiring offensive performance is par for the course in September, and Furman is a tough out. Offense will improve as always and the defense can still take over a game. Don't knock Sparty's stock just because they were in a one-score game with five minutes to go -- that's practically standard for this bunch.
Games of interest
Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Darrell Hazell is 6-30 in three seasons at Purdue, with more solo last-place division finishes than Big Ten wins. It remains to be seen exactly how much progress the undeniably improved Boilers will show in 2016, but be assured that what we have this week is a hungry team and a defining game.
Cincinnati is Purdue's marquee nonconference game this year, and to the Boilers it must look like a fair fight one after two losses to Notre Dame and one to Virginia Tech in the matchup that occupied that spot the past three Septembers. With the rest of the month consisting of an FCS team, a Mountain West also-ran and an open date, this is the game this team has pointed toward all offseason. It's also a ready measuring stick for Hazell's progress, since he debuted in 2013 with a 42-7 road loss to the Bearcats. Win this one, and this staff's process, plan and promises of better days ahead gain major credibility with the fan base, administration and players alike. Lose big, and it starts getting really hard to keep anybody bought in.
Cincinnati could be ripe for the picking, as the Cats did not impress in a 28-7 opening win over Tennessee-Martin and are still trying to find themselves on offense after losing the top six receivers from a pass-first 2015 attack.
Arkansas Razorbacks at TCU (-7.5)
The Frogs allowed 461 yards in a 59-41 win over South Dakota State that was a four-point game with nine minutes to play. Arkansas was down six with seven minutes remaining and couldn't crack 300 yards in a 21-20 nailbiter over Louisiana Tech. Both the Arkansas offense and TCU defense are better than they looked in their openers, but that side of the ball provides an advantage to the Razorbacks, as the TCU defense is built to stop Big 12 offenses and doesn't see many downhill rushing teams in that league. The Frogs have their own offensive edge, as quarterback Kenny Hill is familiar with the Arkansas defense from piloting a 35-28 win over the Hogs as the Texas A&M signal-caller back in 2014. Arkansas has won 30 of the past 33 meetings between these former Southwest Conference rivals, the last in 1991.
Movers and shakers
The prices quoted are prior to Monday night's Ole Miss-Florida State game, but the rest of the weekend provided plenty of shake-up in the futures market. The main theme: The upset winners saw big moves, but a setback in the lid-lifter isn't dropping the odds on the losers as much as you might think.
Houston entered the season at 80-1 on the Westgate board and Texas was 100-1. Now both are a mere 20-1. Wisconsin plunged from 200-1 to 60-1.
The three favorites the above trio took down saw their prices slip a bit, but the modest moves clearly reflect the belief that one loss doesn't take top teams out of the running. Oklahoma slid from 12-1 to 20-1, Notre Dame from 20-1 to 30-1 and LSU from 8-1 to 15-1.
Favorites logging big wins didn't move much. Stanford and Georgia each saw their prices rise from 25-1 to 30-1 despite quality wins.
TEAM LAST WEEK CURRENT
Alabama 6-1 5-1
Clemson 7-1 6-1
Ohio State 8-1 6-1
Michigan 8-1 8-1
Washington 30-1 30-1
Chalk bits
We write a lot about bad favorites in this space. Teams unaccustomed to laying points often fail in that role, as Vandy and Wake Forest backers were reminded Thursday. This week's poster child is Army, laying nine points to Rice. The Cadets are just 8-17 ATS when giving weight the past decade.
Alabama is now 7-0 under Nick Saban in neutral-site season openers, winning by an average of 23 points. The trend under Saban in the following game is just as stark -- 0-5 ATS in game two after a neutral-site opener (the sixth was halted early due to weather) with some real duds. History says this week's matchup with Western Kentucky will be the Tide's sloppiest game of the year.
Another coach in a historically poor spot is West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen. His Mountaineers have played one FCS team in each of his five prior seasons, and they are 1-4 ATS in those matchups. Youngstown State has played an FBS team each year in that span, covering four of five with one outright win.
Louisville is at Syracuse on Friday night, and the Cardinals have been ATS road warriors the past several seasons, covering 27 of their past 38 road games and 20 of 26 against a team with a winning home record.
One of the reasons East Carolina traded in the capable Ruffin McNeill after six seasons was the search for better results against better teams. The Pirates have covered just a third of their past 28 games against teams with winning records.
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
Three top-10 teams lost in Week 1 when the Oklahoma Sooners, LSU Tigers and Notre Dame Fighting Irish all went down as favorites away from home. We'll check in on whether the oddsmakers still view this crowd as national contenders, as well as tell you which teams you should be buying and selling after Week 1. We'll also examine why the offenses might have the advantages in the upcoming TCU-Arkansas clash -- plus, we'll explain which embattled coach faces the pivotal game that will define his progress after three years of rebuilding.
Portfolio checkup
Buy
Alabama Crimson Tide: The Tide confirmed coaches' claims that this is the fastest defense of the Nick Saban era while answering some questions at several position groups. Inexperience in the offensive backfield and defensive depth are still issues, but the 52-6 thrashing of the USC Trojans showcased all-around big-play ability and the monster upside of frosh quarterback Jalen Hurts.
Stanford Cardinal: The Cardinal got great quarterback play against a tough Kansas State Wildcats defense in a 26-13 win, a sign that the Christian McCaffrey-led offense will be a 40-plus points-per-game operation this year.
Kansas State Wildcats: The youngest team of Bill Snyder 2.0, but much better skill position talent than last season and the best defense in the Big 12.
Western Michigan Broncos: Needed a bizarre goal-line turnover to squeak out a 23-22 win over Northwestern, but impressively controlled both sides of the line of scrimmage en route to a 27-15 first-down advantage. Best raw talent in the MAC.
Sell
Tennessee Volunteers: Heralded recruiting classes have ripened into seasoned brigades of upperclassmen, but the overall on-field operation is still prone to mental errors and lacking attention to detail. Overtime battle with Sun Belt entrant Appalachian State looked like a clash of equals. Regime change should follow disappointing campaign.
Hold
Michigan State Spartans: Uninspiring offensive performance is par for the course in September, and Furman is a tough out. Offense will improve as always and the defense can still take over a game. Don't knock Sparty's stock just because they were in a one-score game with five minutes to go -- that's practically standard for this bunch.
Games of interest
Cincinnati Bearcats (-6.5) at Purdue Boilermakers
Darrell Hazell is 6-30 in three seasons at Purdue, with more solo last-place division finishes than Big Ten wins. It remains to be seen exactly how much progress the undeniably improved Boilers will show in 2016, but be assured that what we have this week is a hungry team and a defining game.
Cincinnati is Purdue's marquee nonconference game this year, and to the Boilers it must look like a fair fight one after two losses to Notre Dame and one to Virginia Tech in the matchup that occupied that spot the past three Septembers. With the rest of the month consisting of an FCS team, a Mountain West also-ran and an open date, this is the game this team has pointed toward all offseason. It's also a ready measuring stick for Hazell's progress, since he debuted in 2013 with a 42-7 road loss to the Bearcats. Win this one, and this staff's process, plan and promises of better days ahead gain major credibility with the fan base, administration and players alike. Lose big, and it starts getting really hard to keep anybody bought in.
Cincinnati could be ripe for the picking, as the Cats did not impress in a 28-7 opening win over Tennessee-Martin and are still trying to find themselves on offense after losing the top six receivers from a pass-first 2015 attack.
Arkansas Razorbacks at TCU (-7.5)
The Frogs allowed 461 yards in a 59-41 win over South Dakota State that was a four-point game with nine minutes to play. Arkansas was down six with seven minutes remaining and couldn't crack 300 yards in a 21-20 nailbiter over Louisiana Tech. Both the Arkansas offense and TCU defense are better than they looked in their openers, but that side of the ball provides an advantage to the Razorbacks, as the TCU defense is built to stop Big 12 offenses and doesn't see many downhill rushing teams in that league. The Frogs have their own offensive edge, as quarterback Kenny Hill is familiar with the Arkansas defense from piloting a 35-28 win over the Hogs as the Texas A&M signal-caller back in 2014. Arkansas has won 30 of the past 33 meetings between these former Southwest Conference rivals, the last in 1991.
Movers and shakers
The prices quoted are prior to Monday night's Ole Miss-Florida State game, but the rest of the weekend provided plenty of shake-up in the futures market. The main theme: The upset winners saw big moves, but a setback in the lid-lifter isn't dropping the odds on the losers as much as you might think.
Houston entered the season at 80-1 on the Westgate board and Texas was 100-1. Now both are a mere 20-1. Wisconsin plunged from 200-1 to 60-1.
The three favorites the above trio took down saw their prices slip a bit, but the modest moves clearly reflect the belief that one loss doesn't take top teams out of the running. Oklahoma slid from 12-1 to 20-1, Notre Dame from 20-1 to 30-1 and LSU from 8-1 to 15-1.
Favorites logging big wins didn't move much. Stanford and Georgia each saw their prices rise from 25-1 to 30-1 despite quality wins.
TEAM LAST WEEK CURRENT
Alabama 6-1 5-1
Clemson 7-1 6-1
Ohio State 8-1 6-1
Michigan 8-1 8-1
Washington 30-1 30-1
Chalk bits
We write a lot about bad favorites in this space. Teams unaccustomed to laying points often fail in that role, as Vandy and Wake Forest backers were reminded Thursday. This week's poster child is Army, laying nine points to Rice. The Cadets are just 8-17 ATS when giving weight the past decade.
Alabama is now 7-0 under Nick Saban in neutral-site season openers, winning by an average of 23 points. The trend under Saban in the following game is just as stark -- 0-5 ATS in game two after a neutral-site opener (the sixth was halted early due to weather) with some real duds. History says this week's matchup with Western Kentucky will be the Tide's sloppiest game of the year.
Another coach in a historically poor spot is West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen. His Mountaineers have played one FCS team in each of his five prior seasons, and they are 1-4 ATS in those matchups. Youngstown State has played an FBS team each year in that span, covering four of five with one outright win.
Louisville is at Syracuse on Friday night, and the Cardinals have been ATS road warriors the past several seasons, covering 27 of their past 38 road games and 20 of 26 against a team with a winning home record.
One of the reasons East Carolina traded in the capable Ruffin McNeill after six seasons was the search for better results against better teams. The Pirates have covered just a third of their past 28 games against teams with winning records.
