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Golfers to Bet - BMW Champ.

Tournament: BMW Championship
Date: Thursday, September 8th
Venue: Crooked Stick Golf Club
Location: Carmel, Indiana

The TOUR golfers head to Indiana for the BMW Championship on Thursday. This is one of the final two FedEx Cup Playoff events, so the top golfers know that they must make their marks fast.

One guy that will be excited to be out there on Thursday is Jason Day. Day won this tournament in dominant fashion in 2015, shooting a 22-under to defeat Daniel Berger by six strokes. His aggregate score of 262 gave him a share of the course record with Tiger Woods, who will not be returning until the 2017 season.

Another guy who should be looking forward to getting out there is Rory McIlroy. McIlroy stunned a lot of people by coming back to win the Deutsche Bank Championship.He looked to be completely out of it after the first three days, but he put together an incredible final round and now has a ton of momentum coming into this one. He also happens to have won this event back in 2012, so it’s possible that he could continue to move himself up the FedEx Cup standings on Sunday.

With that out of the way, let’s now take a look at who might find themselves winning on this 7,516-yard course this weekend:

Golfers to Watch

Jason Day (15/2) - Day did not have the type of performance he was hoping for at the Deutsche Bank Championship, shooting an eight-under to tie for 15th place. He still, however, finds himself in second in the FedExCup standings by only 569 points and a win on Sunday would net him 2,000. Day knows that a victory here would put him in first and he certainly wants that type of control heading into the final event of the year. Fortunately for Day, he now gets to play at a tournament that he completely dominated a year ago. Although it’s not at the same course he won at in 2015, Day will have confidence knowing that he is the defending champion in this one. Also, the fact that Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank Championship should light a fire under Day. He’s out to prove he’s the best in the world and is worth backing at 7/1.

Jordan Spieth (15/1) - Spieth has had a very disappointing season, but he does appear to be on the right track after the Deutsche Bank Championship. Spieth shot a seven-under to finish tied for 21st in that event and played three superb rounds of golf. If it weren’t for a poor outing on Sunday then he would have found himself much higher up on the leaderboard. It’s also worth noting that Spieth is still sixth in the FedExCup standings, even in a down year for him. That means that a win on Sunday could put him right back in contention heading into the final event of the year. Look for Spieth to go out swinging and back him with his favorable 14/1 odds. He is still one of the most talented players on the TOUR and will be out to save his season this weekend.

Patrick Reed (20/1) - Despite not being a name that most people think of when talking about the best golfers in the world, Patrick Reed is currently atop the FedExCup standings and he has every intention to remain there and finish the season as a champion. Reed played well at the Deutsche Bank Championship, shooting a 10-under to tie for fifth. He is on a tear lately, as he came away with the win at The Barclays two weeks ago as well. Reed is out to prove that his place at the top of the standings is no fluke and he’s playing well enough to go out there and beat anybody at the moment. Putting a unit or two on him at 22/1 would be a wise move, as he knows he will clinch the championship with a win on Sunday.

Fabian Gomez (200/1) - When looking for a dark horse in this week’s event, Gomez is a guy that stands out. Gomez doesn’t have much of a chance to finish at the top of the FedExCup standings, but he did play very well at the Deutsche Bank Championship and will be hoping to make a splash in this one. Gomez shot a 10-under to tie for fifth in that tournament and he just might have found a way to win if he played better in the second round. He shot a 71 that day and it really set him back. Still, he’ll be feeling very confident when he takes the course on Thursday and is worth putting a half-unit on with his absurd 200/1 odds.

Odds to win BMW Championship -
Rory McIlroy 11/2
Jason Day 15/2
Dustin Johnson 17/2
Adam Scott 15/1
Jordan Spieth 15/1
Patrick Reed 20/1
Justin Rose 22/1
Hideki Matsuyama 30/1
Louis Oosthuizen 30/1
Sergio Garcia 30/1
Jimmy Walker 35/1
Paul Casey 35/1
Phil Mickelson 35/1
Rickie Fowler 35/1
Brooks Koepka 40/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Emiliano Grillo 40/1
Ryan Moore 40/1
Gary Woodland 45/1
Branden Grace 55/1
Brandt Snedeker 55/1
Daniel Berger 55/1
Kevin Chappell 55/1
Matt Kuchar 55/1
Russell Knox 55/1
Charl Schwartzel 65/1
J.B. Holmes 65/1
Justin Thomas 65/1
Tony Finau 65/1
Billy Horschel 70/1
Kevin Na 75/1
Si Woo Kim 75/1
Zach Johnson 75/1
Jason Dufner 80/1
Jason Kokrak 80/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Bill Haas 100/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
Chris Kirk 100/1
Marc Leishman 100/1
Ryan Palmer 100/1
Scott Piercy 100/1
Smylie Kaufman 100/1
Brian Harman 125/1
Charles Howell III 125/1
David Hearn 125/1
Jhonattan Vegas 125/1
Luke Donald 125/1
Ben Martin 150/1
Billy Hurley III 150/1
Brendan Steele 150/1
David Lingmerth 150/1
Harris English 150/1
Hudson Swafford 150/1
James Hahn 150/1
Jamie Lovemark 150/1
Roberto Castro 150/1
Sean O'Hair 150/1
Graeme McDowell 175/1
William McGirt 175/1
Aaron Baddeley 200/1
Brian Stuard 200/1
Daniel Summerhays 200/1
Fabian Gomez 200/1
Kevin Streelman 200/1
Jim Herman 250/1
Vaughn Taylor 250/1
Jon Curran 300/1
Kyle Reifers 300/1

Odds Subject to Change

FedEx Updated Odds

With two of the four Fed Ex Cup playoffs events already completed, it's time to start seriously considering who's got a legitimate shot at winning these playoffs and whether or not there is value in backing them. Obviously things can change dramatically after the conclusion of this week's BMW Championship, but with only 70 players remaining, finding that potential winner is a little easier with the field basically cut in half from the start.

Fed Ex Cup Odds to Win

At the beginning of the playoffs I wrote about the chances the “Big Five” in golf have at claiming this title and who would be a solid wager. Well, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, and Henrik Stenson are all still alive in the race, but Stenson is taking this week's BMW Championship off to rest a torn knee in preparation for the Ryder Cup, and hopefully the Tour Championship.

Stenson currently sits 24th in the Fed Ex Cup standings and with only the Top 30 making the Tour Championship and no chance of earning points in the BMW, it looks as though Stenson may be all but done. He had been one of the past winners of the Fed Ex Cup that I talked about avoiding in that first piece and it doesn't look like 2016 will be his year in the playoffs.

Currently, Day (+350) and McIlroy (+350) are the co-favorites to win these playoffs and while Day hasn't won one of the two events so far, he continues to be remarkably consistent and cashing in enough points to still be 2nd in the standings. McIlroy's odds shot up after his win at the Deutsche Bank last week and there is no doubt bettors like the current form the Irishman is showing. But he still started these playoffs outside that key Top 20 mark where eight of the nine Fed Ex Cup winners have come from and that makes taking him now at these low odds a tough proposition.

However, there is one guy who started in a similar spot as McIlroy that has shown good form so far and has much better odds to win it all: Emiliano Grillo. Grillo is listed at (+3000) right now as he's got a T2 and a T33 in the first two events, jumping all the way up to 8th spot in the rankings. It's a long way to go, but a victory in one of these final two events would give him a great chance at claiming this thing and the value is there. Not starting the playoffs inside the Top 20 is a bit of a deterrent, but it's tough to argue against his form right now.

The one guy who did start these playoffs in the Top 20 and is currently atop the points ranking is Patrick Reed at (+800). Reed holds a slim lead over Jason Day at the moment, but he meets that historical criteria of starting in the Top 20 and already has a win in one of the first two events. In the history of the Fed Ex Cup playoffs, every single winner has at least won one of the four tournaments played. That bodes well for Reed who will need to continue to play well during the final two events and at +800, he's arguably the best bet on the board right now.

10 to Watch: BMW Championship
By Tom LaMarre, The Sports Xchange

1. Rory McIlroy, Northern Ireland -- Having regained his touch on the greens with a new putting coach and putter, McIlroy will try to repeat his 2012 feat of back-to-back victories in the Deutsche Bank Championship and the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick, where he beat Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood by two strokes. By winning at TPC Boston, he climbed back to No. 3 in the World Golf Rankings and rose 34 spots to No. 4 in the FedEx Cup standings. There has been talk about what a poor season McIlroy is having, but he has won twice and finished in the top 10 on 11 occasions on both major tours. And he has played well at other BMW venues, tying for eighth in his title defense at Cherry Hills and tying for fourth last year at Conway Farms.

2. Patrick Reed, United States -- With a tie for fifth last week in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Reed increased his lead in the FedEx Cup standings, a week after he won the FedEx Cup playoffs opener, The Barclays. With his 11 finishes in the top 10 and 16 in the top 25 this season on the PGA Tour, he has risen to No. 8 in the world, finishing no worse than a tie for 22nd in the Wyndham Championship in his last seven starts. Reed is making his fourth start in the BMW Championship and his best result was only a tie for 28th last year at Conway Farms. He tied for 53rd in 2014 at Cherry Hills and tied for 59th three years ago, also at Conway Farms. As a PGA Tour rookie, he did not qualify for the 2012 event at Crooked Stick, site of this week's tournament.

3. Adam Scott, Australia -- One of only four players to finish in the top 10 in each of the first two events of the FedEx Cup playoffs, Scott enters the BMW Championship at fifth in the point standings and also is No. 6 in the world. Scott won the Honda Classic and the WGC-Cadillac Championship in back-to-back outings early this year, and has seven top-10 results on the PGA Tour, plus 12 in the top 25 in 18 outings while making the cut each time. He is making his ninth appearance in the BMW Championship and has placed in the top 10 three times, with his best result solo fourth in 2007, when he played the weekend in 67-65. When the tournament was last played at Crooked Stick in 2012, he wound up in a tie for sixth, four shots behind winner McIlroy.

4. Dustin Johnson, United States -- With his tie for eighth in the Deutsche Bank Championship on Monday, Johnson has recorded seven top-10 finishes since June, including victories in the U.S. Open and the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational. He remains one of the top contenders for the FedEx Cup at third in the point standings and is No. 2 in the world behind Jason Day. Johnson will tee it up in the BMW Championship for the seventh time and he won the tournament in 2010 by one stroke over Paul Casey of England at Cog Hill. He came from three strokes down on the back nine, hitting a brilliant approach shot for a tap-in birdie on the 17th hole that provided the winning margin. Johnson tied for sixth when the tournament was last played at Crooked Stick in 2012 and tied for seventh last year at Conway Farms.

5. Jason Day, Australia -- After opening the FedEx Cup playoffs with a tie for fourth in The Barclays, Day rallied for a tie for 15th in the BMW Championship and remained second in the point standings and No. 1 in the world. He will be defending his title in the BMW Championship this week at Crooked Stick after opening with 61-63 last year at Conway Farms and coasting to a six-stroke victory over rookie Daniel Berger by playing the weekend in 69-69. His only other top-10 result in the third round of the playoffs was a tie for fourth three years ago at Conway Farms, and he failed to qualify for the tournament in 2012, when it was last played at Crooked Stick. Day has won three times this season, but not since the Players Championship in May, after claiming five victories last year.

6. Jordan Spieth, United States -- With his tie for 21st in the Deutsche Bank Championship, Spieth dropped out of the coveted top five, and is sixth in the FedEx Cup standings, after opening the playoffs with a tie for 10th in the Barclays. Anyone in the top five entering the Tour Championship in two weeks will win the FedEx Cup with a victory in the finale at East Lake in Atlanta. Spieth has played in the BMW Championship each of the last three years, tying for 16th at Conway Farms in 2013, tying for eighth at Cherry Hills in 2014 and tying for 13th last year back at Conway Farms. The defending FedEx Cup champion won five times last year, including the Masters, the U.S. Open and the Tour Championship, but in what is being called a down year he has won twice and placed in the top 10 seven times in 2016.
7. Ryan Moore, United States -- Another one of the four players who has finished in the top 10 in each of the first two FedEx Cup playoff events, Moore tied for seventh in The Barclays and tied for eighth in the Deutsche Bank. On the strength of those results, plus his victory in the John Deere Classic and a total of eight finishes in the top 10 this season on the PGA Tour, he sits 12th in the FedEx Cup standings. Moore needs another high finish in the BMW Championship to get into the top five heading to the Tour Championship in two weeks. He is making his 11th start in the BMW, with his best result a tie for third in 2010 at Cog Hill, and he also tied for 10th in 2012, when the event was last played at Crooked Stick.

8. Justin Rose, England -- The Olympic gold medalist is in danger of missing the Tour Championship in two weeks, when only the top 30 qualify, having dropped to 50th in the FedEx Cup standings by closing with a 79 to tie for 57th in the Deutsche Bank Championship. He started the season with four early top-10 finishes, capped by a tie for 10th in the Masters, and recorded his best result of the season when he finished solo third in the Wells Fargo Championship. However, his only top-10 finish in nine events since came in the Olympics, and that is considered unofficial. Rose is making his 10th appearance in the BMW Championship, and he won the tournament in 2011 at Cog Hill, taking the lead with an opening 63 and staying in front all the way to beat John Senden of Australia by one stroke. He tied for 16th in his title defense at Crooked Stick.

9. Phil Mickelson, United States -- Lefty has yet to play his very best in the FedEx Cup playoffs, tying for 13th in The Barclays and missing the cut in the Deutsche Bank Championship, but he still has a chance at 15th in the point standings thanks to three runner-up finishes this year. He's a virtual lock to reach the Tour Championship and a big result this week would give him a chance to win the whole thing at East Lake in Atlanta. Mickelson is making his 14th start in the BMW Championship and his best result was a tie for second in 2012 at Crooked Stick, where he shot 64 in round three to take the lead, but closed with a 70 as Rory McIlroy walked away with the title by shooting 67. He also tied for eighth in 2010 at Cog Hill, his only other top-10 result in round three of the playoffs.

10. Jason Kokrak, United States -- Coming out of nowhere in the FedEx Cup playoffs, Kokrak tied for seventh in The Barclays and tied for eighth in the Deutsche Bank Championship, one of only four players to finish in the top 10 in both tournaments. Still, that puts him only 34th in the point standings and he needs another strong finish this week in the BMW Championship to qualify for the Tour Championship in two weeks at East Lake in Atlanta. Kokrak had only two other top-10 results this season, a tie for second in the Northern Trust Open behind Bubba Watson in February and a tie for sixth in the RBC Heritage in May. The only other time he made it to the third round of the playoffs, he tied for 44th in the 2013 BMW Championship at Conway Farms, and he has never played in the Tour Championship.

PGA Tour Picks: BMW Championship Odds and Expert Betting Predictions
by Alan Matthews

Nothing like a final-round 65 to end a victory drought! That's what Rory McIlroy shot on Monday at the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston for his first PGA Tour win since the Wells Fargo Championship in May 2015. (McIlroy did have a European Tour win this year.) He was six shots out of the lead when he teed off on a windy Monday and was 4-over-par after his first three holes in Friday's opening round. The win jumped McIlroy from 38th to fourth in the FedEx Cup standings. He's now assured of playing in the Tour Championship.

The biggest difference in his game at TPC Boston? Putting. Entering the tournament, he was just 117th in putts per round, 130th in strokes gained putting, 165th in total putting, 189th in putting inside 10 feet and 193rd in three-putt avoidance on the PGA Tour. But a week ago, he switched from a Nike putter -- remember, Nike is no longer making golf clubs so McIlroy, who is sponsored by Nike, had no obligation to play with one of the company's putters. McIlroy was seventh in strokes gained putting and first in putting average in Boston.

Paul Casey took a three-shot lead into Monday as he looked for his first PGA Tour win in seven years but shot a final-round 73. He did move from No. 59 to No. 10 in the points and also is guaranteed a spot in the Tour Championship and a shot at the FedEx Cup. The Top 70 in the points from TPC Boston advanced to this week's BMW Championship. The tough-luck loser was Ricky Barnes, who is No. 71 in the points. Marc Leishman is the current bubble boy at No. 70. Six players who were outside the Top 70 moved in at Boston: David Hearn, Hudson Swafford, Vaughn Taylor, Billy Hurley, Chris Kirk and Leishman.

McIlroy hadn't been playing all that well, so I didn't expect a ton from him at the Deutsche Bank. My pick to win was Aussie Adam Scott. He finished fourth at 11 under, four shots back of McIlroy. So I got him for a Top 10 at +175 as well as the top Aussie finisher at +275. Also hit on Louis Oosthuizen at +135 as the top South African. Missed on Top 10s for Jason Day (T15) and Matt Kuchar (T26).

So now it's on to the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick Golf Club in Carmel, Ind. The Top 30 after this event advance to the Tour Championship season finale in Atlanta. Right now at No. 30 is Brooks Koepka, with Daniel Berger at No. 31. Crooked Stick is best known for hosting the 1991 PGA Championship, which was won by an unknown golfer named John Daly. There is one golfer in the Top 70 who is not playing this week: Henrik Stenson, due to a knee injury. He's currently 24th in points so he might not make it to Atlanta.

In addition, U.S. Ryder Cup captain Davis Love III will make three of his four captain's selections for that team (first eight were automatically qualified by points) the day after the tournament. He'll make his final pick after the final round of the Tour Championship.

The defending champion of the BWM is Day, which got him to No. 1 in the world rankings. Day finished at 22 under and won by six shots at a different course, Conway Farms outside Chicago. Crooked Stick has hosted this event once, in 2012. McIlroy won at 20 under, two ahead of Phil Mickelson and Lee Westwood. If a player is in the Top 5 of the points after this week, he is guaranteed the FedEx Cup with a win at the Tour Championship. Also anyone in the Top 30 after the BWM automatically qualifies for all four majors in 2017.

Golf Odds: BMW Championship Favorites

McIlroy is the +500 favorite. He seems to like this tournament, also finishing fourth last year and eighth in 2014.

Day is +700. No one has won this event in back-to-back years, and only Tiger Woods won it twice. Day didn't play in the 2012 BMW at Crooked Stick.

Dustin Johnson (+850), Jordan Spieth (+1400) and Scott (+1600) round out the favorites. DJ was eighth last week, seventh in this event last year, sixth in 2012 and won it in 2010 at Cog Hill. Spieth was 21st last week and didn't play here in 2012. Scott had that fourth in Boston and was eighth at this event last time he played in 2014. He was sixth in 2012.

Golf Odds: BMW Championship Picks

For a Top 10, I'll go with McIlroy (-250), Scott (+125) again and Johnson (+165). Take Rory at -105 as top European, Scott at +140 as top Aussie again and Johnson at +500 as top American.

Head-to-head, I like McIlroy (even) over Day, Johnson (-140) over Spieth (+110), Scott (-130) over Justin Rose (even), Patrick Reed (-155) over Rickie Fowler (+120), Sergio Garcia (-130) over Koepka (even), Oosthuizen (-115) over Jimmy Walker (-115), and Mickelson (-115) over Casey (-115).

I will throw some longer-shot money on Ryan Moore at +4000 to win as he has three Top 10s in his past four PGA Tour events this year and was 10th at the 2012 BMW. But Johnson is my main winner pick.

Preview: Dream (15-14) at Sparks (24-6)

Date: September 08, 2016 10:30 PM EDT

The Atlanta Dream ended the Los Angeles Sparks' quest to record the best start to a WNBA season the last time the two teams met. The Dream could deliver another blow to the Sparks on Thursday, when they visit Staples Center in a big game for both teams' playoff seeding.

The Sparks fell off their first-place perch after dropping a low-scoring slugfest with the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday. Los Angeles fell behind early, suffered through a third-quarter scoring drought and couldn't complete a fourth-quarter comeback in a 77-74 loss to the Lynx, who moved into sole possession of first place.

The loss snapped the Sparks' three-game win streak and continued their uneven performance since returning from the Olympic break. Los Angeles is just 3-3 since the break.

The Dream (15-14) are coming off a 91-87 win over the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday. It was a bounce-back win for Atlanta, which lost to the Seattle Storm at home over the weekend.

"Sometimes it takes a difficult loss, like the last game against Seattle, to turn things around," Atlanta coach Michael Cooper told reporters. "Obviously, we want to go out and win every game we play but that game really let us know that we have to keep our focus and come and play with energy in every single game. When we are able to do that we are one of the best teams in this league."

Atlanta has alternated wins and losses and is 2-2 since returning from the Olympic break. With five contests remaining, the Dream sit in fifth place in the league standings, but only three games separate the teams in fourth through eighth.

The top eight teams in the league standings, regardless of conference, qualify for the postseason.

Los Angeles trails Minnesota by one game in the standings with four to play. The Sparks lost the season series with the Lynx and would need a remarkable finish to regain the top seed in the playoffs.

A win over the Dream would be a good start.

Atlanta and Los Angeles have split their previous two meetings this season, with each squad winning on its home court.

The Dream pounded the Sparks 91-74 on July 17 in Atlanta, thwarting Los Angeles' bid to record the best start in WNBA history. The Sparks had won 20 of their first 21 games, but Atlanta's Layshia Clarendon and Angel McCoughtry each scored 17 points in the Dream's win.

WNBA Betting Recap - 8/29-9/4
By Joe Williams

League Betting Notes (Monday, Aug. 29 through Sunday, Sept. 4)

-- Favorites went 11-4 straight up (SU)
-- Underdogs went 8-7 against the spread (ATS)
-- Home teams posted a 10-5 SU record
-- Home teams posted a 8-7 ATS record
-- The 'over' went 9-6

Team Betting Notes

-- Los Angeles (24-5) had a bit of a rough patch after the Olympics, but they rebounded nicely in the past week with a 3-0 SU record. Still, they're having difficulty against the number, going just 1-2 ATS in the past week, and 2-7 ATS over the past nine.

-- Phoenix (13-16) looked like they might be piecing together a hot streak, but they dropped each of their past two road outings and failed to cover in each. The Mercury have dropped four of their past five on the road while going 2-3 ATS during the span. Their road trip concludes in Atlanta (14-13) Tuesday. They won in Atlanta back on July 3 by a 95-87, covering as two-point favorites.

-- Chicago (15-13) continues to improve, winning for the fourth straight game, and seventh time in eight outings. The Sky has posted 90 or more points in each of their past four wins, and the 'over' has connected in five in a row. Chicago is 6-2 ATS over their past eight heading into their game Wednesday in D.C.

-- Minnesota (24-5) won each of their home games, splitting against the number. The Lynx are just 7-9 ATS over their past 16 games, and they're 9-7 ATS in 16 games this season as a double-digit favorite.

-- The Lynx cooled off Connecticut (11-18). Despite the fact the Sun are seven games under .500 overall, they're 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS over their past seven road outings. They're back on the road Friday in New York (20-9). In the two previous meetings the Sun is 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS against the Liberty.

-- Seattle (12-17) might not have the best overall record, but the Storm has been a bettor's favorite at the window lately. The Storm is 6-1 ATS over their past seven outings, and they're 5-1 ATS over their past six road games. They continue their road trip Wednesday in New York.

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA*|*ATLANTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team (LOS ANGELES) revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
55-24*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.6%*|*28.6 units*)
3-3*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.3 units*)

WNBA*|*ATLANTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after scoring 70 points or more in 4 straight games
115-61*over the last 5 seasons.**(*65.3%*|*0.0 units*)
46-26*this year.**(*63.9%*|*0.0 units*)

WNBA*|*ATLANTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after a game where they covered the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games after 15 or more games
114-62*since 1997.**(*64.8%*|*45.8 units*)
4-2*this year.**(*66.7%*|*1.8 units*)

NFL Week 1 Opening Line Report:
By PATRICK EVERSON

After months of anticipation, the NFL finally returns with real games as the regular season kicks off Thursday night. At some sportsbooks, the lines on Week 1 have been up for several weeks or more, with several significant shifts in those numbers.

We talk about four key season openers with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk manager.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -3; Move: Broncos -1.5, Panthers -1, Panthers -3

Right from the get-go, the 2016 season gets a Super Bowl rematch. The Broncos went in as 5-point underdogs in last season’s NFL title tilt and completely shut down Cam Newtown and Co. on the way to a 24-10 victory.

That marked Peyton Manning’s last game, and Brock Osweiler was expected to provide a steady transition following Manning’s retirement. But that narrative went out the window when Osweiler left for greener pastures with the Houston Texans, leading to a 180-degree swing in the line at CG’s books, including The Cosmopolitan, the M and the Venetian.

“Due to Denver’s Super Bowl win, the line opened at Broncos -3, with the assumption that Osweiler was going to start,” Simbal said. “Once the game opened (in mid-April), bets began coming in on the Panthers, and the line moved their way. Once Osweiler left, it shifted all the way to the Panthers.”

Denver went 15-4 SU and a more modest 10-8-1 ATS in 2015, while the Panthers won their first 14 games last year and finished 17-2 SU, 13-6 ATS.

Sportsbooks opening line was much tighter, at Broncos -1 as Childs gave Denver modest home-field respect while knowing quarterback could be an issue. But as with CG, that respect didn’t last for long.

“We quickly took on Panthers money, and we knew quite early that the public was going to be squarely behind the Panthers in this revenge game,” Childs said. “We quickly went to Panthers -1 and kept ticking up until just last week, when we eventually got to Panthers -3.5, our current number.”

Thin Mile High air gives Broncos an early-season edge in home openers
By JASON LOGAN

Sports Authority Field at Mile High isn’t just a catchy name. The home of the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos actually sits 5,280 feet above sea level – exactly one mile into the sky. Gotta respect the attention to detail.

You should also respect the Broncos’ built-in home-field advantage at Sports Authority Field, especially early into the NFL season. The thin air at that altitude has long plagued visiting teams, with that energy-draining effect amplified in Denver’s opening home games of the schedule.

Heading into Thursday’s Super Bowl rematch between the host Broncos and the Carolina Panthers, Denver boasts an incredible 27-4 SU mark and has gone 19-12 ATS in those contests, covering the spread more than 61 percent of the time. Since 2000, the Broncos have lost their home opener just once (2011 Week 1) and have failed to cover the spread only four times, with a 10-4-2 ATS record (71.4%).

“There's no question that playing in that Mile High altitude effects visiting teams and I believe it's even more impactful early in the season,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management, tells us. “There isn't a team out there in all the NFL that is in game shape - flat out nobody's played a game. A few have played a half of football in Week 3 of the preseason, but even then that's just preseason and lacks the intensity of a regular season game.”

The Broncos have won with ease in their home openers, outscoring opponents 28.8 ppg to 18.9 ppg versus an average spread of -5 since 1985. Last season, Denver defeated the Baltimore Ravens 19-13 as 4.5-point home chalk in Week 1 of the schedule. The Broncos defense shutout the Ravens in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

“I'm not saying these athletes and teams are not in shape, but there's no substituting for being in 'game shape' and that takes a few weeks,” Childs says. “I fully believe the Broncos’ early-season success at home is directly correlated to teams not being as in shape as they are later on in the season.”

Sportsbooks are currently dealing the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs, after the home side opened as a slight favorite and was bet down due to issues at quarterback. Peyton Manning retired following his Super Bowl 50 victory and free agent QB Brock Osweiler signed with the Houston Texans in the offseason. That has forced Denver to give the starting nod to inexperienced Trevor Siemian, who has never thrown a pass in a regular season game.

Denver has been a betting underdog in its home opener just once before in the past 31 years, winning 23-16 as a 3-point pup hosting the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the 2002 campaign.

The Broncos will be leaning hard on their defense to once again be the difference maker in 2016, but with that said, Denver has trended toward the Over in home openers. The team has posted a 20-11 Over/Under mark since 1985 (64.5% Over) with an average total of 47.8 points scored against an average closing total of 43.4.

The betting total for Thursday’s season kickoff opened at 43 points and is down to 41.5 as of Tuesday. The Broncos and Panthers played Under the 43-point total in Super Bowl 50, with Denver winning 24-10.

Thin Mile High air gives Broncos an early-season edge in home openers
By JASON LOGAN

Sports Authority Field at Mile High isn’t just a catchy name. The home of the Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos actually sits 5,280 feet above sea level – exactly one mile into the sky. Gotta respect the attention to detail.

You should also respect the Broncos’ built-in home-field advantage at Sports Authority Field, especially early into the NFL season. The thin air at that altitude has long plagued visiting teams, with that energy-draining effect amplified in Denver’s opening home games of the schedule.

Heading into Thursday’s Super Bowl rematch between the host Broncos and the Carolina Panthers, Denver boasts an incredible 27-4 SU mark and has gone 19-12 ATS in those contests, covering the spread more than 61 percent of the time. Since 2000, the Broncos have lost their home opener just once (2011 Week 1) and have failed to cover the spread only four times, with a 10-4-2 ATS record (71.4%).

“There's no question that playing in that Mile High altitude effects visiting teams and I believe it's even more impactful early in the season,” Peter Childs, supervisor of risk management, tells us. “There isn't a team out there in all the NFL that is in game shape - flat out nobody's played a game. A few have played a half of football in Week 3 of the preseason, but even then that's just preseason and lacks the intensity of a regular season game.”

The Broncos have won with ease in their home openers, outscoring opponents 28.8 ppg to 18.9 ppg versus an average spread of -5 since 1985. Last season, Denver defeated the Baltimore Ravens 19-13 as 4.5-point home chalk in Week 1 of the schedule. The Broncos defense shutout the Ravens in the fourth quarter to secure the win.

“I'm not saying these athletes and teams are not in shape, but there's no substituting for being in 'game shape' and that takes a few weeks,” Childs says. “I fully believe the Broncos’ early-season success at home is directly correlated to teams not being as in shape as they are later on in the season.”

Sportsbooks are currently dealing the Broncos as 3-point home underdogs, after the home side opened as a slight favorite and was bet down due to issues at quarterback. Peyton Manning retired following his Super Bowl 50 victory and free agent QB Brock Osweiler signed with the Houston Texans in the offseason. That has forced Denver to give the starting nod to inexperienced Trevor Siemian, who has never thrown a pass in a regular season game.

Denver has been a betting underdog in its home opener just once before in the past 31 years, winning 23-16 as a 3-point pup hosting the St. Louis Rams in Week 1 of the 2002 campaign.

The Broncos will be leaning hard on their defense to once again be the difference maker in 2016, but with that said, Denver has trended toward the Over in home openers. The team has posted a 20-11 Over/Under mark since 1985 (64.5% Over) with an average total of 47.8 points scored against an average closing total of 43.4.

The betting total for Thursday’s season kickoff opened at 43 points and is down to 41.5 as of Tuesday. The Broncos and Panthers played Under the 43-point total in Super Bowl 50, with Denver winning 24-10.

Football lines that make you go hmmm: Short road faves are undervalued
By PETER KORNER

As an oddsmaker, I have to be aware of the home-field advantage, no matter what the sport. The reason? Simple. Teams win more at home than they do on the road. But there are certain situations where I think the bettor has a distinct advantage playing that angle against the percentages: road favorites with a short price.

In the NFL, there seems to be a standard of three points (give or take the situation) for the home field. A six-point differential if we switch the home team. There are four situations in Week 1 of the NFL season where I believe, just because of the “automatic” home-field advantage, the line poses a weak chance of getting two-way action for bookmakers. And that’s where bettors may be aggressive with their betting.

We’re going to look at the opening game of the season, Thursday’s Carolina at Denver, Sunday’s Cincinnati at the NY Jets and both Monday games, Pittsburgh at Washington and Los Angeles at San Francisco.

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 42)

Carolina is a solid 3-point favorite over the Denver Broncos, who lost their top two quarterbacks to retirement and free agency, and that’s how the early money found its way to the Carolina side. So, as an oddsmaker, on a neutral site, Carolina would be a 6-point favorite and as a home team and they’d giving the Broncos nine points.

My feelings for years, has been if a team is a 9-point favorite at home, that difference in talent to be at that level should carry over to wherever they’re playing. Suddenly making a large favorite, a near pick’em game never made sense. My first thoughts would be that Carolina should be at the minimum, a 6-point favorite here.

The value right now is Carolina at the -3 level. This game already smells of a closing line of -4 or higher as everyone has been hit on the revenge-minded Panthers in the past few days and I don’t see tremendous buy back for bookmakers - even when the money on game day forces this off the key number of three.

Bookmakers will be taking three or four times their limits before moving the game off -3 and by that time, they’ll be swamped with one-sided action and then suddenly, this becomes a huge game to kick of Week 1.

Trends favor Broncos in Week 1

The 2016 NFL regular season kicks off Thursday as Denver meets Carolina from Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

The Broncos defeated the Panthers 24-10 in Super Bowl 50 last February as 4 ½-point underdogs and the oddsmakers have Carolina listed as a road favorite in a rematch that is very rare.

The primetime opener marks just the seventh time in NFL history that the previous season’s Super Bowl opponents square off in a rematch in the very next season.

2014 – Seattle 26 vs. Denver 20 (OT)
Super Bowl 48 – Seattle 43 Denver 8

1997 – Green Bay 28 at New England 10
Super Bowl 31 – Green Bay 35 New England 21

1993 – Buffalo 13 Dallas 10
Super Bowl 27 – Dallas 52 Buffalo 17

1979 – Pittsburgh 14 vs. Dallas 3
Super Bowl 13 – Pittsburgh 35 Dallas 31

1977 – Oakland 35 vs. Minnesota 13
Super Bowl 11 – Oakland 34 Minnesota 14

1970 – Minnesota 27 vs. Kansas City 10
Super Bowl 4 – Kansas City 23 Minnesota 7

Looking above you can see that the Super Bowl winner has gone 4-2 (67%) in the rematch game.

While the sample on this trend isn’t that large, there are two other Super Bowl handicapping angles that have become solid staples for Week 1.

Betting on the defending Super Bowl champions in their Week 1 opener the following season is a well-known angle and many gamblers have banked on it.

After watching the Super Bowl champions drop back-to-back openers in 2012 and 2013, the defending champions have bounced back with victories in each of the last two seasons.

Super Bowl Winner - Week 1 History (2000-2015)

Year SB Winner Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)

2015 New England (-7) vs. Pittsburgh 28-21 (Win-Push)
2014 Seattle (-4.5) vs. Green Bay 36-16 (Win-Win)
2013 Baltimore (+7.5) at Denver 27-49 (Loss-Loss)
2012 N.Y. Giants (-3.5) vs. Dallas 17-24 (Loss-Loss)
2011 Green Bay (-4.5) vs. New Orleans 42-34 (Win-Win)
2010 New Orleans (-4.5) vs. Minnesota 14-9 (Win-Win)
2009 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Tennessee 13-10 (Win-Loss)
2008 N.Y. Giants (-4) vs. Washington 16-7 (Win-Win)
2007 Indianapolis (-5) vs. New Orleans 41-10 (Win-Win)
2006 Pittsburgh (-7.5) vs. Miami 28-17 (Win-Win)
2005 New England (-7.5) vs. Oakland 30-20 (Win-Win)
2004 New England (-3) vs. Indianapolis 27-24 (Win-Push)
2003 Tampa Bay (+3) vs. Philadelphia 17-0 (Win-Win)
2002 New England (PK) vs. Pittsburgh 30-14 (Win-Win)
2001 Baltimore (-10) vs. Chicago 17-6 (Win-Win)
2000 St. Louis (-7) vs. Denver 41-36 ((Win-Loss)


Including New England's win last season, the defending champions are now 14-2 straight up and 10-4-2 against the spread in Week 1 openers since 2000.

During this span, the Super Bowl winner has only been listed as an underdog twice and they’ve gone 1-1 in those matchups.

As mentioned above, Denver will be in that role on Thursday when Carolina visits for the rematch.

While the Panthers have the clear-cut advantage at quarterback with Cam Newton over the Broncos first-time starter Trevor Siemian, backing Super Bowl losers in Week 1 hasn’t been a great investment.

Super Bowl Loser - Week 1 History (1999-2015)

Year SB Loser Opponent Score (SU-ATS Result)

2015 Seattle (-3.5) at St. Louis 34-31 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2014 Denver (-8) vs. Indianapolis 31-24 (Win-Loss-Over)
2013 San Francisco (-5.5) vs. Green Bay 34-28 (Win-Win-Over)
2012 New England (-5) at Tennessee 34-13 (Win-Win-Under)
2011 Pittsburgh (+1) at Baltimore 7-35 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2010 Indianapolis (-2.5) at Houston 24-34 (Loss-Loss-Over)
2009 Arizona (-6.5) vs. San Francisco 6-20 (Loss-Loss)
2008 New England (-16) vs. Kansas City 17-10 (Win-Loss)
2007 Chicago (+6) at San Diego 3-14 (Loss-Loss)
2006 Seattle (-6) at Detroit 9-6 (Win-Loss)
2005 Philadelphia (-1) at Atlanta 10-14 (Loss-Loss)
2004 Carolina (-3) vs. Green Bay 14-24 (Loss-Loss)
2003 Oakland (+3) at Tennessee 20-25 (Loss-Loss)
2002 St. Louis (-3) at Denver 16-23 (Loss-Loss)
2001 N.Y. Giants (+3) vs. San Francisco 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
2000 Tennessee (PK) at Buffalo 13-16 (Loss-Loss)
1999 Atlanta (+4) at Minnesota 14-17 (Loss-Win)


Since 2000, the runner-up has gone 5-11 SU and 3-12-1 ATS.

Despite the poor overall numbers (20%) versus the number during this span, the ‘losers’ have won three of the last four seasons and they were expected to do so as favorites.

We also highlighted in the above table that the ‘over’ has gone 5-1 in the last six Week 1 openers for the Super Bowl loser.

The total on the Panthers and Broncos opened 43 ½ but has since dropped to 42 at most sportsbooks as of Monday.

NFL Opening Kickoff betting preview and odds: Panthers at Broncos

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (+3, 41.5)

The 2016 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday with a rematch of Super Bowl 50, as the visiting Carolina Panthers look to exact revenge against the defending champion Denver Broncos. With future Hall of Famer Peyton Manning embracing retirement, second-year player Trevor Siemian won an impromptu quarterback competition with first-round pick Paxton Lynch and veteran Mark Sanchez to claim the starter's role for Denver in the season opener.

"Trevor is the guy," general manager John Elway said of Siemian, whose lone NFL action last season resulted in a kneel-down versus Pittsburgh. "We have a lot of confidence in Trevor and believe that he can do the job. It's Trevor's job, but he's not going to be looking over his shoulder." Super Bowl MVP Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware headline a top-ranked defense that silenced Cam Newton (45 total TDs in 2015) both on and off the field in February, but the reigning league MVP was quick to speak out against the notion of Thursday's tilt serving as a Super Bowl rematch. "A lot of people want to make it a rematch. It's just our next opponent," said Newton, who was stripped of the ball on two occasions and sacked a Super Bowl high-tying seven times in a 24-10 decision in February.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The line has seen some major moves since it originally hit the board back in April. Books opened the Broncos as slight 1.5-point home faves, but then projected starter Brock Osweiler signed with Houston in free agency, causing the to reopen the line with the Panthers as 2-point road faves. Since then the Broncos named Trevor Siemian won the starting quarterback job and Carolina has moved to -3.

When it comes to the total, the action hasn't been as exciting. The number opened at 43 and has been slowly bet down a half-point at a time before setting at the current number of 41.5.

POWER RANKINGS: Panthers (-6) - Broncos (-2) + home field (-3) = Broncos +1

INJURY REPORT:

Panthers - LB A. Klein (probable Thursday, back), DT V. Butler (probable Thursday, hand), S D. Marlowe (questionable Thursday, hamstring), DE K. Ealy (questionable Thursday, concussion).

Broncos - LB D. Ware (probable Thursday, back), C J. Ferentz (questionable Thursday, knee), TE J. Heuerman (questionable Thursday, hamstring), WR C. Latimer (questionable Thursday, knee), WR B. Fowler (out Thursday, elbow).

WEATHER REPORT: It should be a beautiful night in Denver to kickoff the 2016 NFL season. The forecast calls for clear skies in the high 70's to start the game. There will be a slight five-to-six mile per hour wind gusting from wast to west across the field.

WHAT BOOKS SAY: "We obviously have a lot of liability on the Panthers. The wiseguys hit Carolina early and often when this spread opened up back in April. On the money handle 80 percent of the action is on Carolina, and that started when they were a 2.5-point dog. The ticket count is even greater with nearly 90 percent on the visitor. The revenge factor is large and the public loves to play it. The under has been adjusted down two points from the opener and we have 65 percent of the handle on the under. We'll be praying for a high-scoring, easy Broncos victory." - Scott Cooley, odds consultant.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "A rare situation where the defending Super Bowl champion enters the season with something to prove as an underdog. They still have a dominating defense that ranked 1st in the league in yards allowed (283) and passing yards allowed (200) per game last year. They also had the third best rush defense (83 yards per game)."

"However, there is no experience at quarterback. Denver cut veteran QB Mark Sanchez which means they enter the season with two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch, who have never started a regular season game. Siemian was mediocre in his three preseason games last month with a 70.4 QB rating and a 1/2 touchdown/interception ratio." - Steve Merril.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2015: 15-1, 11-5 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U): Kelvin Benjamin was a spectator throughout the 2015 season after tearing his ACL, but the 6-foot-5 wide receiver will be on the field for the opener - albeit for approximately 35 snaps, according to the Charlotte Observer. "I think that's the best guess," coach Ron Rivera told the newspaper of Benjamin, who has been working on his conditioning. "If it is more, great. I'd be really excited about it. He's done some really good things and you see him getting back into stride and that's probably the best thing." Tight end Greg Olsen, veteran Ted Ginn (team-high 10 touchdowns) and promising second-year wideout Devin Funchess return in the passing game, while rugged Jonathan Stewart (club-best 989 rushing) will look to aid in the ground attack.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2015: 12-4, 8-8 ATS, 6-9-1 O/U): Demaryius Thomas led the Broncos in receptions (105) and receiving yards (1.304) and tied Emmanuel Sanders in receiving touchdowns (six) last season, but was limited to just one catch for eight yards in the Super Bowl. Thomas will look for a better individual performance versus Carolina as he will likely be shadowed by rookie cornerbacks as opposed to Pro Bowler Josh Norman, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with Washington in the offseason. Denver would love to get more out of its running game this season as C.J. Anderson (720 yards) struggled throughout the early stages before capping his tumultuous campaign with 90 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl 50.

TRENDS:

* Super Bowl winners are 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Super Bowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 home openers.
* Under is 4-0 in the Panthers' last four season openers.
* Over is 5-1 in the Broncos' last six season openers.

CONSENSUS: The public is strongly backing the favorite in this Super Bowl rematch, with a big 71 percent of wagers on the Panthers. As for the total, 64 percent of wagers are backing the Under.