[h=1]NFL insiders predict Week 1's best games, including Giants-Cowboys[/h]
Mike Sando
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN senior writer Mike Sando kicks off the 2016 NFL season by asking league insiders to pick winners in selected games. Three personnel evaluators took the challenge in Week 1. (All game times are ET.)
[h=2]Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos[/h]Thursday: 8:30 p.m., NBC | Point spread: Panthers by 3
Two of the three league insiders are picking Carolina to win the game. They see two teams with strong defenses. They know what to expect from Cam Newtonand the Panthers' offense, and they aren't sure what to expect from Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian in his first NFL start.
"I think Cam becomes more of a factor in this game than he was in the Super Bowl," a personnel director said. "In the Super Bowl, he didn't do what he normally does. He didn't take over a game. He didn't run [enough]. I almost think that stage was so big that those guys became a little bit too conservative. Here, they just go play and they pull off a better performance."
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The Panthers' reconfigured secondary minus Josh Norman looks like their biggest weakness. Will Siemian be good enough in his first start to exploit that weakness? Carolina's front seven is as good as any in the league. Key components of it have been together for years. But the one insider who picked the Broncos to win thought Denver would be able to replicate its Super Bowl formula because the Panthers, in his view, are not appreciably better along their offensive line.
"Denver is going to ride its defense, and Siemian is not going to hurt them," this insider said. "Gary Kubiak is a good playcaller. He keeps you off-balance and they will run the ball, get field position to allow their defense to make Carolina screw it up. I think Cam will try to do too much."
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets[/h]Sunday: 1 p.m., CBS | Point spread: Bengals by 2.5
All three insiders are taking the Bengals as long as Cincinnati's offensive line is near full strength. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth dealt with a shoulder injury during the preseason. Right tackle Cedric Ogbuehi said he expects to play despite a toe injury suffered last month.
"The Bengals' line is one of the best in the league that never gets talked about," one of the insiders said. "Their line and their running back combo are what I will be watching in this game, and the return of Andy Dalton. I think Dalton is going to have a big year, but early on, we need to see how their rookie receivers look, and they are also without Tyler Eifert. I expect them to be a very run-heavy, play-action team."
The third insider said Dalton was the perfect quarterback to nullify the Jets' strength -- their defensive front -- because he gets the ball out of his hand so quickly. The numbers back up that thinking. Dalton released the ball 2.20 seconds after the snap on average last season, the fastest time in the league and just ahead of Tom Brady (2.26).
[h=2]New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys[/h]Sunday: 4:25 p.m., Fox | Point spread: Even
Forty-six points is the over-under. I got the feeling our insiders would take the over. They also liked the Cowboys' chances of winning at home, even withoutTony Romo (two insiders leaned toward Dallas and the third went with the Giants).
"I think we will see the passing of the torch [from Romo]," one of the insiders said. "Dak Prescott is a legitimate NFL quarterback. He has the poise to sit in there and make the throws or use the running game. He has healthy receivers. I think the Cowboys are going to surprise some people here on offense, but I don't think they can slow anybody down."
The Giants spent big to upgrade their defense. It should be better. How could it be much worse? But the insiders thought the upgrades would not be as dramatic as hoped.
"OK, Giants, if your defense is what it is supposed to be, you should win that game," one of the insiders said. "You would think the Giants would win, but I think the Cowboys' offense will be very good, no matter the quarterback, just because of the offensive line and the weapons. I just don't think their defense can get off the field. This could be a shootout."
The third insider picked the Giants.
"It's a tough one for me," this insider said. "I think the Giants have the better offense and the better defense. Dallas has some talented corners individually, but can they collectively hold Odell Beckham Jr. with a veteran QB?"
[h=2]New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Sunday: 8:30 p.m., NBC | Point spread: Cardinals by 6
All agreed Arizona looked horrible during the preseason. One insider who attended a Cardinals preseason game thought Arizona looked disinterested, even. But the Cardinals were still a unanimous choice to win this game withTom Brady substitute Jimmy Garoppolo making his first regular-season NFL start.
"Garoppolo holds the ball a lot, and that is going to be an issue for that team against that rush," one of the insiders said. "Arizona runs so much pressure, and I feel like Chandler Jones going against his old team, and against Nate Solder, is going to be, 'Advantage, Chandler Jones.' Garoppolo is not used to eliminating routes pre-snap based off coverages and blitzes. Arizona is not complicated in its blitzes. They are just f---ing good at what they do."
One insider felt strongly New England tight ends Rob Gronkowski andMartellus Bennett could exploit Arizona's coverage weaknesses, especially if hybrid defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is less than full strength in his first game back from knee surgery. There was some debate on this subject, however. One insider thought Cardinals linebacker/safety Deone Bucannon could run well enough for Arizona to match up respectably even from the Cardinals' base defense. Another insider thought Bucannon and especially inside linebackerKevin Minter would be in trouble, but only if Garoppolo could play well enough to capitalize.
All agreed Arizona, though known for its vertical passing game, would be best off attacking a questionable Patriots defensive front with heavy doses of running back David Johnson. One insider called New England's defensive line "average" across the board, at best.
"I expect David Johnson to have as big of a year as Todd Gurley, if not bigger, because he has the quarterback who can stretch the field and keep opponents guessing," this insider said. "To beat the Patriots, just pound the rock right up the middle."
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins[/h]Monday: 7:10 p.m., ESPN | Point spread: Steelers by 3
Two of the three insiders went with the Steelers even though Pittsburgh will be without running back Le'Veon Bell, receiver Martavis Bryant and tight endLadarius Green.
The unreliability of those players -- Bell is suspended three games, Bryant is suspended for the season and Green is on the physically unable to perform list -- was one reason Pittsburgh appeared on my list of overrated teams heading into the season. The one insider picking the Redskins thought Washington would have the edge at home because Pittsburgh was short-handed. Another insider torpedoed that thinking.
"You watch them play in the playoffs last year and they almost beat the [eventual] Super Bowl champions without Le'Veon Bell, without Antonio Brown," this insider said. "It shows you the value of the quarterback."
All three insiders also thought the Redskins' signing of Josh Norman, though helpful in the big picture, did not put Washington in position to win the matchup it most needs to win -- the one against Brown. The boxing adage that styles make fights comes to mind here. Norman is at his best when he can get his hands on receivers. Brown is too elusive for that. The Steelers also might be able to win by isolating running backDeAngelo Williams against inside linebackers.
"That is a coin-flip-type game," one of the insiders said. "I still go with the quarterback matchup in a coin-flip-type game, so I will go with Roethlisberger, but this should be a close one."
Mike Sando
ESPN Senior Writer
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN senior writer Mike Sando kicks off the 2016 NFL season by asking league insiders to pick winners in selected games. Three personnel evaluators took the challenge in Week 1. (All game times are ET.)
[h=2]Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos[/h]Thursday: 8:30 p.m., NBC | Point spread: Panthers by 3
Two of the three league insiders are picking Carolina to win the game. They see two teams with strong defenses. They know what to expect from Cam Newtonand the Panthers' offense, and they aren't sure what to expect from Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian in his first NFL start.
"I think Cam becomes more of a factor in this game than he was in the Super Bowl," a personnel director said. "In the Super Bowl, he didn't do what he normally does. He didn't take over a game. He didn't run [enough]. I almost think that stage was so big that those guys became a little bit too conservative. Here, they just go play and they pull off a better performance."
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
The Panthers' reconfigured secondary minus Josh Norman looks like their biggest weakness. Will Siemian be good enough in his first start to exploit that weakness? Carolina's front seven is as good as any in the league. Key components of it have been together for years. But the one insider who picked the Broncos to win thought Denver would be able to replicate its Super Bowl formula because the Panthers, in his view, are not appreciably better along their offensive line.
"Denver is going to ride its defense, and Siemian is not going to hurt them," this insider said. "Gary Kubiak is a good playcaller. He keeps you off-balance and they will run the ball, get field position to allow their defense to make Carolina screw it up. I think Cam will try to do too much."
[h=2]Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets[/h]Sunday: 1 p.m., CBS | Point spread: Bengals by 2.5
All three insiders are taking the Bengals as long as Cincinnati's offensive line is near full strength. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth dealt with a shoulder injury during the preseason. Right tackle Cedric Ogbuehi said he expects to play despite a toe injury suffered last month.
"The Bengals' line is one of the best in the league that never gets talked about," one of the insiders said. "Their line and their running back combo are what I will be watching in this game, and the return of Andy Dalton. I think Dalton is going to have a big year, but early on, we need to see how their rookie receivers look, and they are also without Tyler Eifert. I expect them to be a very run-heavy, play-action team."
The third insider said Dalton was the perfect quarterback to nullify the Jets' strength -- their defensive front -- because he gets the ball out of his hand so quickly. The numbers back up that thinking. Dalton released the ball 2.20 seconds after the snap on average last season, the fastest time in the league and just ahead of Tom Brady (2.26).
[h=2]New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys[/h]Sunday: 4:25 p.m., Fox | Point spread: Even
Forty-six points is the over-under. I got the feeling our insiders would take the over. They also liked the Cowboys' chances of winning at home, even withoutTony Romo (two insiders leaned toward Dallas and the third went with the Giants).
"I think we will see the passing of the torch [from Romo]," one of the insiders said. "Dak Prescott is a legitimate NFL quarterback. He has the poise to sit in there and make the throws or use the running game. He has healthy receivers. I think the Cowboys are going to surprise some people here on offense, but I don't think they can slow anybody down."
The Giants spent big to upgrade their defense. It should be better. How could it be much worse? But the insiders thought the upgrades would not be as dramatic as hoped.
"OK, Giants, if your defense is what it is supposed to be, you should win that game," one of the insiders said. "You would think the Giants would win, but I think the Cowboys' offense will be very good, no matter the quarterback, just because of the offensive line and the weapons. I just don't think their defense can get off the field. This could be a shootout."
The third insider picked the Giants.
"It's a tough one for me," this insider said. "I think the Giants have the better offense and the better defense. Dallas has some talented corners individually, but can they collectively hold Odell Beckham Jr. with a veteran QB?"
[h=2]New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Sunday: 8:30 p.m., NBC | Point spread: Cardinals by 6
All agreed Arizona looked horrible during the preseason. One insider who attended a Cardinals preseason game thought Arizona looked disinterested, even. But the Cardinals were still a unanimous choice to win this game withTom Brady substitute Jimmy Garoppolo making his first regular-season NFL start.
"Garoppolo holds the ball a lot, and that is going to be an issue for that team against that rush," one of the insiders said. "Arizona runs so much pressure, and I feel like Chandler Jones going against his old team, and against Nate Solder, is going to be, 'Advantage, Chandler Jones.' Garoppolo is not used to eliminating routes pre-snap based off coverages and blitzes. Arizona is not complicated in its blitzes. They are just f---ing good at what they do."
One insider felt strongly New England tight ends Rob Gronkowski andMartellus Bennett could exploit Arizona's coverage weaknesses, especially if hybrid defensive back Tyrann Mathieu is less than full strength in his first game back from knee surgery. There was some debate on this subject, however. One insider thought Cardinals linebacker/safety Deone Bucannon could run well enough for Arizona to match up respectably even from the Cardinals' base defense. Another insider thought Bucannon and especially inside linebackerKevin Minter would be in trouble, but only if Garoppolo could play well enough to capitalize.
All agreed Arizona, though known for its vertical passing game, would be best off attacking a questionable Patriots defensive front with heavy doses of running back David Johnson. One insider called New England's defensive line "average" across the board, at best.
"I expect David Johnson to have as big of a year as Todd Gurley, if not bigger, because he has the quarterback who can stretch the field and keep opponents guessing," this insider said. "To beat the Patriots, just pound the rock right up the middle."
[h=2]Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Redskins[/h]Monday: 7:10 p.m., ESPN | Point spread: Steelers by 3
Two of the three insiders went with the Steelers even though Pittsburgh will be without running back Le'Veon Bell, receiver Martavis Bryant and tight endLadarius Green.
The unreliability of those players -- Bell is suspended three games, Bryant is suspended for the season and Green is on the physically unable to perform list -- was one reason Pittsburgh appeared on my list of overrated teams heading into the season. The one insider picking the Redskins thought Washington would have the edge at home because Pittsburgh was short-handed. Another insider torpedoed that thinking.
"You watch them play in the playoffs last year and they almost beat the [eventual] Super Bowl champions without Le'Veon Bell, without Antonio Brown," this insider said. "It shows you the value of the quarterback."
All three insiders also thought the Redskins' signing of Josh Norman, though helpful in the big picture, did not put Washington in position to win the matchup it most needs to win -- the one against Brown. The boxing adage that styles make fights comes to mind here. Norman is at his best when he can get his hands on receivers. Brown is too elusive for that. The Steelers also might be able to win by isolating running backDeAngelo Williams against inside linebackers.
"That is a coin-flip-type game," one of the insiders said. "I still go with the quarterback matchup in a coin-flip-type game, so I will go with Roethlisberger, but this should be a close one."
