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Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
The New England Patriots are the 6-1 Super Bowl favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, but quarterback Tom Brady is suspended for the first four games of the season. We'll adjust New England's power rating when Brady returns. For now, the Patriots are tied for the No. 6 spot with the Cincinnati Bengals.
Our rankings aren't too far off from the Westgate Super Bowl futures, so we've added those to the accompanying chart as another way to rank the teams.
Let's take a look at all 32 teams, and then we'll do what we do every week and try to find value in the current points spreads.
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
If not for falling behind 31-0 to the Panthers in the divisional round (a game Seattle eventually lost 31-24), we could be talking about a dynasty. Even with the retirement of running back Marshawn Lynch, the Seahawks have the most balanced roster in the league. There are some concerns about the offensive line's ability to protect the passer, but elusive quarterback Russell Wilson can turn those breakdowns into big plays.
The Cardinals look just as strong as last year. Quarterback Carson Palmer has a deep and talented receiving corps, plus a strong running game with David Johnson and Chris Johnson. Oh, and the defense is pretty good, too, with safety Tyrann Mathieu coming back and the addition of linebacker Chandler Jones. I personally have them as the strongest team.
ESPN's Football Power Index has Green Bay No. 1. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers carried the Packers last year. We'll see how the loss of Josh Sitton affects the offensive line, but wide receiver Jordy Nelson is back and running back Eddie Lacy looks to be in better shape.
The Steelers will again have one of the best offenses in the league, led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, wide receiver Antonio Brown and a talented supporting cast. However, running back Le'Veon Bell starts the season on suspension for the second straight year (and wide receiver Martavis Bryant is out for the season). That caused a half-point downgrade from our power rating after the draft.
There's a difference of opinion on our panel about whether the Panthers are truly among the NFL elite or if they will suffer from a Super Bowl hangover. The loss of cornerback Josh Norman to Washington could hurt, though Carolina gets back 2014 leading wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin.
As stated above, the Patriots' power rating would be several points higher with Brady in the lineup. The downgrade of 2.5 points could have been more, but most handicappers feel coach Bill Belichick has had time to prepare Jimmy Garoppolo to take over all offseason (as well as last summer when Brady was initially suspended for "Deflategate"). The New England train should keep chugging along.
These aren't ratings for how teams fare in the playoffs, so the Bengals are tied for sixth with the Patriots heading into the regular season. Cincinnati has a balanced offense that can grind it out with running backs Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard or air it out with quarterback Andy Dalton to wide receiver A.J. Green. The Bengals also have a solid defense. Their 20-1 Super Bowl odds might be the best value on the board, though they first have to show they can win a playoff game.
The Chiefs return pretty much the same team that won 11 games in a row last year, including a playoff game over the Texans, so coach Andy Reid is doing something right. Quarterback Alex Smith is still mostly a dink-and-dunk passer, but it works with a team built around the running game and a solid defense.
After Peyton Manning retired and Brock Osweiler left for Houston, the Broncos signed Mark Sanchez and drafted Paxton Lynch. However, it was the "other guy" -- Trevor Siemian -- who won the starting quarterback job. Denver didn't play great at quarterback last year and still won the Super Bowl, so Siemian will take over the game-manager role with the Broncos returning one of the league's top defenses.
Minnesota's quarterback saga has been well-documented: Teddy Bridgewater was injured at practice two weeks ago. After first saying Shaun Hill would be the starter, the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford. Their power rating had dropped farther, but is now just 1 point lower than it was in the spring. Similar to Denver, the Vikings also rely more on their running game and their defense.
The Colts' front office spent a lot of the offseason upgrading the offensive line to help protect franchise quarterback Andrew Luck, who enters the season healthy again. They didn't do as much with the defense -- and lost linebacker Jerrell Freeman to Chicago -- so they're nowhere near the elite team they were heading into 2015 when they were No. 5 (and a power rating of 25) heading into the season but went 8-8 and lost the AFC South to Houston.
It's a little surprising to see a 5-11 team ranked this high, but everything went wrong for the Ravens last year; 22 players ended the season on injured reserve, and nine of their 11 losses came by eight points or fewer. They should be more competitive with quarterback Joe Flacco healthy and the additions of wide receiver Mike Wallace and safety Eric Weddle in free agency.
There's definitely a difference of opinion on the defending AFC South champion Texans. J.J. Watt leads a strong defense, and former No. 1 pick Jadeveon Clowney looks like he's stepped up his game this preseason. But some people like the addition of quarterback Brock Osweiler and running back Lamar Miller, while others doubt if they'll fare any better than Brian Hoyer and Arian Foster. At least Osweiler has star receiver DeAndre Hopkins to help with the transition.
With emerging stars like Derek Carr, Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack, hopes are high in Oakland -- and here in Vegas as well. They've been a popular season wins total bet -- it's up to 8.5 for a franchise that hasn't finished above .500 since 2002. They've also risen in our power rankings, but slowly until the potential results in more wins on the field.
Atlanta is higher here than you'll find in other polls, but I'll admit our ratings are skewed a little higher because yours truly has the Falcons as my value bet to win the Super Bowl (Westgate's odds are currently at 80-1). Devonta Freeman added a running game to the Falcons' high-flying Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones act, and head coach Dan Quinn continues to improve the defense. If they start fast like last year, they'll rise quickly up the rankings; if they don't, they'll plummet fast.
The Giants can't be worse than their No. 32 defensive ranking last year, as they addressed needs on that side of the ball, including signing free-agent defensive end Olivier Vernon to go with Jason Pierre-Paul. Quarterback Eli Manning and the offense should also have to rely less on wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. with the return of Victor Cruz and the addition of draft pick Sterling Shepard.
The defense is the strength of this team with one of the best defensive lines in football, plus cornerback Darrelle Revis, but the offense should be improved, too, with running back Matt Forte providing a dual threat for quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The offense carried the Bills last year as Tyrod Taylor took over as the franchise quarterback. Coach Rex Ryan inherited the No. 4 defense and turned it into the No. 20 unit in his first season. Things were looking up with the drafting of defensive end Shaq Lawson and linebacker Reggie Ragland, but both were hurt in the offseason and other injuries contributed to us dropped the Bills' rating by 2 points.
Washington came from nowhere to win the NFC East behind quarterback Kirk Cousins in 2015. However, some doubts remain whether he can sustain those results or if he will regress. Our panel has downgraded the team a little, but it could be quick risers if it picks up where it left off at the end of last season.
The big news in Big D this year was supposed to be the return of the dominant running game with rookie Ezekiel Elliott, but that changed when quarterback Tony Romo broke his back in the third preseason game. It caused a 2.5-point reduction in the Cowboys' power rating, and it would have been much more if another rookie, Dak Prescott, hadn't performed so well in the preseason. We'll see how the regular season goes before adjusting Dallas.
Quarterback Blake Bortles is expected to have a big year with wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, plus running back Chris Ivory added to the backfield with T.J. Yeldon. We had already upgraded the Jaguars in the spring after a strong draft that included cornerback Jalen Ramsey and linebacker Myles Jack, so now this young team has to prove worthy of the higher rating before moving them up further.
The Rams used a strong defense to pull several upsets at home in St. Louis in recent years, but we'll see if they can bring that to the cavernous Los Angeles Coliseum. The offense will revolve around running back Todd Gurley as journeyman Case Keenum will start the season at quarterback over No. 1 pick Jared Goff.
Last year's No. 1 pick Jameis Winston should improve in Year 2, especially with weapons like wide receivers Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, as well as running back Doug Martin. However, it's hard to upgrade this team any higher with the franchise starting over again with a new coach in Dirk Koetter.
Here's another team with a new coach in quarterback guru Adam Gase. Can he finally turn Ryan Tannehill's potential into actual victories? Arian Foster replaces Lamar Miller at running back, but Tannehill is the big question. The Dolphins might have gotten the steal of the draft, as guard Laremy Tunsil's stock dropped on draft night. The loss of Olivier Vernon will hurt on defense.
A lot of questions here. Can running back Melvin Gordon rebound from a disappointing rookie season? Can quarterback Philip Rivers carry this team with his powerful right arm? Will holdout rookie linebacker Joey Bosa be able to get on the field and be productive? The Chargers' power rating is in a holding pattern until we get some answers.
Future Hall of Famer Calvin Johnson retired, but the Lions added veteran wide receivers Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin to go with Golden Tate. Quarterback Matthew Stafford will put up his usual solid numbers, but the Lions are still seen as a middle-of-the-road team overall.
A lot of people are down on the Bears and offer their poor performances in the preseason against the Broncos and Chiefs -- two of the best defenses in the league -- as proof. Call me a homer if you like (I grew up in the Chicago suburbs), but I don't believe the Bears will be that bad. Jay Cutler is an inconsistent quarterback, but he has a pair of big-play wideouts in Alshon Jeffery and Kevin White, who missed his entire rookie season, and Jeremy Langford can fill the Matt Forte role out of the backfield. The defense should be better with free-agent linebackers Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan. We'll see who's right.
The Saints have gone downhill the past two years. Quarterback Drew Brees continues to put up big numbers and should do so again, but the defense was 31st last year, and the Saints didn't do much to improve (well, except for firing defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who was on pace to have the second-most yards allowed in NFL history before being replaced by Dennis Allen). Brees will have to do it all again on his own.
The Titans were our worst-ranked team at the end of last season, which is what you would expect from the team with the No. 1 pick in the draft, but after acquiring running back DeMarco Murray, drafting Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry and trading away the No. 1 pick for help in other areas, the Titans should avoid battling for the cellar. How much quarterback Marcus Mariota improves in his second season will be key.
The Eagles' power rating was already pretty low in the post-Chip Kelly era, but it dropped another point after Sam Bradford was traded to Minnesota last Saturday. It's clear that Philadelphia is now in full rebuilding mode, as No. 2 pick Carson Wentz was named the starting quarterback by new coach Doug Pederson.
The Johnny Manziel experiment is over, at least in Cleveland), and the reins were turned over to Robert Griffin III, who had worn out his welcome in Washington. It looked like the Browns would be our No. 32 team, but the offense actually showed promise in the preseason, and it could get another boost when wide receiver Josh Gordon returns from his four-game suspension.
Chip Kelly inherited a mess, and it doesn't look like thing will improve anytime soon for the 49ers (plus they play in the division with our No. 1 and No. 2 teams). Blaine Gabbert beating out Colin Kaepernick, who not too long ago was considered to be leading the evolution of dual-threat quarterbacks, isn't a good sign for the coming season, either. The defense, led by Navorro Bowman, tends to keep the 49ers in some games, but it doesn't look like the offense will be consistent enough to take advantage.
