How to bet Carolina-Denver
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 1 has arrived, beginning with a matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets on the game.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Matchup: Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Denver -3; now Carolina -3
Total: Opened 43.5; now 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Carolina
Public perception: Cam Newton says this Super Bowl rematch is just another game, but most people don't believe him. ESPN's Pick Center has 77 percent on the Panthers (and other bet-tracking sites are also about 70 percent) and a lot of them probably like the revenge angle. The fact the Broncos are going with second-year Trevor Siemian doesn't appear to inspire much support from the public, either.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Denver -3 (EVEN) at the Westgate back on April 14 when the schedule was announced and most other books had the Broncos favored by 1 or 2 points, so early wiseguy action was definitely on the Panthers as an underdog. Sharps that prefer the Denver side are waiting for the line to peak.
Dave Tuley's take: The NFL Vegas Rankings that we're part of at ESPN Chalk has the Panthers as just 1 point better than the Broncos on a neutral field. With this game in Denver, we think the Broncos should be a small favorite, so getting a full field goal is appealing. Siemian isn't Peyton Manning, but the argument can be that he doesn't have to be (as long as he's an effective game-manager like Manning was at the end of his career). The Broncos' defense smothered Newton in the Super Bowl and Von Miller & Co. should be all over him again. Denver did lose a few players from its D, but Carolina lost shutdown CB Josh Norman, so that's a wash in my mind. In a game that should be closer to a pick-em, give me the team that won the last meeting at +3 (EVEN), though I'll wait to see if the public pushes it to Carolina -3.5.
The pick: Broncos +3 (EVEN)*.
Erin Rynning: The Panthers enjoyed about as close to a perfect season as possible in 2015 until their dreaded Super Bowl loss. Heading into that game, the Panthers were 17-1 with an amazing plus-28 turnover ratio. Indeed, it will prove difficult for the Panthers to duplicate last season, especially their 31.3 points per game average considering they ranked in the middle of the NFL pack in yards per play.
The task is greater when matched up against the Broncos' defense that ranked No. 1 in yards per game and yards per play last year. With little change in the Broncos' stop-unit they'll remain difficult to consistently move the football on. While Siemian will throw his first official NFL pass on Thursday night, the Broncos will attempt to rely on their defense and run game as much as possible and not the right arm of their quarterback. Expect both teams to face an uphill battle, with offensive production minimal in a field goal game.
Picks: Play under 41.5 and lean to the Broncos +3.
Mike Clay: The Denver offense failed to eclipse two touchdowns per game last season and the quarterback situation actually got worse. Add to the equation a few big defensive losses to injury and free agency (Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, Vance Walker) and some regression, and the defending champs will have their hands full at home against Carolina. The Panthers' shaky cornerback situation shouldn't be a huge factor with Siemian throwing the passes, but it's enough that Denver will be able to keep it competitive at home.
Projected score: Carolina 22.1-Denver 19.8
The pick: Denver +3
Prop bets
John Parolin:
5.0 sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
Newton might still be a little sore from the most recent matchup between these teams. The 2015 MVP was under siege in Super Bowl 50, taking six sacks to go with his 21 pressured dropbacks. That was more than any quarterback in Super Bowl history, except Jim Kelly in Super Bowl XXVI. This also was not an aberration -- Newton was sacked seven times in his only previous meeting with the Broncos, a 36-14 loss in Week 10 of 2012. The Broncos lost Malik Jackson in free agency, who lined up for 53 snaps on the right side of the defense (Miller's side) -- but the prop calls for both teams, and how Siemian, a seventh-round pick with one career snap, handles the Panthers is still very much unknown.
Gary Kubiak isn't likely to let Siemian hold on to the ball long. The Panthers' secondary is inexperienced, and Carolina's group of pass rushers returns largely intact after finishing sixth in sacks last year. Kubiak will want the ball out quick and into the hands of his playmakers, so don't expect Siemian to contribute the lions' share of this; but escaping unscathed in his first career start is unlikely as well.
The play: Over
68.5 receiving yards by Demaryius Thomas (O/U -110)
Over the past five years, the only wide receivers who have caught more screen passes than Thomas are Antonio Brown and Golden Tate. It has been a tactic the Broncos employed with Peyton Manning successfully, and it's not a stretch to assume the game plan could include those low-risk throws to one of the best after-catch threats in football.
Thomas had a "quiet" 2015 season as the team shuffled between quarterbacks all season, but his 473 yards after catch ranked sixth among wide receivers and he was seventh in overall receiving yards at 1,304 (81.5 per game). How much of a drop-off will Siemian really be for a Broncos team that posted the eighth-worst Total QBR in the league last year? And if the game plan for Siemian is short throws and screen heavy, can Carolina's rookie cornerbacks tackle? James Bradberry (second-round pick, Samford) and Daryl Worley (third, West Virginia) should be tested early and often. They haven't seen playmakers like Demaryius, for whom all it takes to score is one missed tackle.
The play: Over
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
NFL Week 1 has arrived, beginning with a matchup between the Carolina Panthers and the Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos. ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets on the game.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Spread: Opened Denver -3; now Carolina -3
Total: Opened 43.5; now 41.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 77 percent Carolina
Public perception: Cam Newton says this Super Bowl rematch is just another game, but most people don't believe him. ESPN's Pick Center has 77 percent on the Panthers (and other bet-tracking sites are also about 70 percent) and a lot of them probably like the revenge angle. The fact the Broncos are going with second-year Trevor Siemian doesn't appear to inspire much support from the public, either.
Wiseguys' view: This line opened Denver -3 (EVEN) at the Westgate back on April 14 when the schedule was announced and most other books had the Broncos favored by 1 or 2 points, so early wiseguy action was definitely on the Panthers as an underdog. Sharps that prefer the Denver side are waiting for the line to peak.
Dave Tuley's take: The NFL Vegas Rankings that we're part of at ESPN Chalk has the Panthers as just 1 point better than the Broncos on a neutral field. With this game in Denver, we think the Broncos should be a small favorite, so getting a full field goal is appealing. Siemian isn't Peyton Manning, but the argument can be that he doesn't have to be (as long as he's an effective game-manager like Manning was at the end of his career). The Broncos' defense smothered Newton in the Super Bowl and Von Miller & Co. should be all over him again. Denver did lose a few players from its D, but Carolina lost shutdown CB Josh Norman, so that's a wash in my mind. In a game that should be closer to a pick-em, give me the team that won the last meeting at +3 (EVEN), though I'll wait to see if the public pushes it to Carolina -3.5.
The pick: Broncos +3 (EVEN)*.
Erin Rynning: The Panthers enjoyed about as close to a perfect season as possible in 2015 until their dreaded Super Bowl loss. Heading into that game, the Panthers were 17-1 with an amazing plus-28 turnover ratio. Indeed, it will prove difficult for the Panthers to duplicate last season, especially their 31.3 points per game average considering they ranked in the middle of the NFL pack in yards per play.
The task is greater when matched up against the Broncos' defense that ranked No. 1 in yards per game and yards per play last year. With little change in the Broncos' stop-unit they'll remain difficult to consistently move the football on. While Siemian will throw his first official NFL pass on Thursday night, the Broncos will attempt to rely on their defense and run game as much as possible and not the right arm of their quarterback. Expect both teams to face an uphill battle, with offensive production minimal in a field goal game.
Picks: Play under 41.5 and lean to the Broncos +3.
Mike Clay: The Denver offense failed to eclipse two touchdowns per game last season and the quarterback situation actually got worse. Add to the equation a few big defensive losses to injury and free agency (Malik Jackson, Danny Trevathan, Vance Walker) and some regression, and the defending champs will have their hands full at home against Carolina. The Panthers' shaky cornerback situation shouldn't be a huge factor with Siemian throwing the passes, but it's enough that Denver will be able to keep it competitive at home.
Projected score: Carolina 22.1-Denver 19.8
The pick: Denver +3
Prop bets
John Parolin:
5.0 sacks by both teams (O/U -110)
Newton might still be a little sore from the most recent matchup between these teams. The 2015 MVP was under siege in Super Bowl 50, taking six sacks to go with his 21 pressured dropbacks. That was more than any quarterback in Super Bowl history, except Jim Kelly in Super Bowl XXVI. This also was not an aberration -- Newton was sacked seven times in his only previous meeting with the Broncos, a 36-14 loss in Week 10 of 2012. The Broncos lost Malik Jackson in free agency, who lined up for 53 snaps on the right side of the defense (Miller's side) -- but the prop calls for both teams, and how Siemian, a seventh-round pick with one career snap, handles the Panthers is still very much unknown.
Gary Kubiak isn't likely to let Siemian hold on to the ball long. The Panthers' secondary is inexperienced, and Carolina's group of pass rushers returns largely intact after finishing sixth in sacks last year. Kubiak will want the ball out quick and into the hands of his playmakers, so don't expect Siemian to contribute the lions' share of this; but escaping unscathed in his first career start is unlikely as well.
The play: Over
68.5 receiving yards by Demaryius Thomas (O/U -110)
Over the past five years, the only wide receivers who have caught more screen passes than Thomas are Antonio Brown and Golden Tate. It has been a tactic the Broncos employed with Peyton Manning successfully, and it's not a stretch to assume the game plan could include those low-risk throws to one of the best after-catch threats in football.
Thomas had a "quiet" 2015 season as the team shuffled between quarterbacks all season, but his 473 yards after catch ranked sixth among wide receivers and he was seventh in overall receiving yards at 1,304 (81.5 per game). How much of a drop-off will Siemian really be for a Broncos team that posted the eighth-worst Total QBR in the league last year? And if the game plan for Siemian is short throws and screen heavy, can Carolina's rookie cornerbacks tackle? James Bradberry (second-round pick, Samford) and Daryl Worley (third, West Virginia) should be tested early and often. They haven't seen playmakers like Demaryius, for whom all it takes to score is one missed tackle.
The play: Over
