Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 1 of the NFL
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the start of the 2016 NFL season, I'm excited to contribute this weekly column for the second straight year. During the 2015 regular season, my weekly picks produced a 25-19 against the spread record (56.82 percent), and here's to providing more winning picks and betting systems.
If you're unfamiliar with this column, we use contrarian strategies to find value in the betting marketplace. Whenever the public zigs, we zag. As one of the core philosophies at Sports Insights, it has yielded consistently profitable results.
To understand why the contrarian approach works, it's important to first understand the inner workings of a sportsbook. The point spread isn't the predicted margin of victory, nor are oddsmakers attempting to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side, thereby mitigating any risk. The truth here is that books shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception -- allowing their most-respected clients to shape the line.
Almost all bettors can be sorted into one of two categories: "sharps" and "squares." Sharps are typically wise guys or betting syndicates who spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Sharps are widely respected -- they're a smaller group that moves lines across the sports betting marketplace.
A majority of bettors can be categorized as squares. These casual weekend warriors place wagers based on gut-feelings and instinct, rather than research and analysis. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore they have a tendency to pound favorites and overs and point totals. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.
Every week in this column I'll explain how readers can capitalize on squares overreacting to blowouts, prolonged streaks or major injuries. We'll break down profitable betting trends, identify sharp money indicators, examine public betting behavior and share insights from several prominent oddsmakers.
In the first system of the new season, I wanted to take advantage of artificially skewed lines created <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>by overreactions to 2015 results. Even though it's a brand new season and many impactful players have changed teams, casual bettors are often slow to adapt -- placing excessive emphasis on playoff teams from the prior season.
Contrary to popular belief, most NFL lines don't originate in Las Vegas -- they're set by a handful of prominent offshore sportsbooks. To determine how Week 1 betting compared with the rest of the season, I reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu.
"Absolutely, bettors overreact to what they perceive as quality playoff teams from last year," Cooley said. "The world of sports wagering for the public is all about, 'what have you done for me lately?' The squares remember which teams were good last year, not which teams should be improved or worse this year."
Squares place an inordinate amount of value on a team's win-loss record from the previous season, and they also value teams' ATS records. Casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that consistently failed to cover the spread last season, and this tendency plays right into our hands -- just take a look at the numbers below and you'll see how good an investment going against the grain can be.
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</aside>Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on favorites from the previous year -- creating additional value for contrarian bettors who are willing to put in the time and effort to discover a trend like this.
Why does this work?
Casual bettors often overreact to recent results. Entering the first week of a new season, bettors are limited in their ability to assess offseason transactions, so they use last season's results as their guide. This edge is amplified when the team also failed to cover the spread during the previous season.
Week 1 is especially unique, since lines open so early and receive a heavy volume of bets as the public is anxious to make bets on football after such a long layoff. According to Cooley, the handle during Week 1 is typically the largest of the regular season, and many casual bettors struggle with their bankroll management. This influx of public money will oftentimes create artificially inflated lines. Shrewd contrarian bettors can get free points by taking an unpopular stance.
Being a contrarian bettor means frequently rooting for the worst teams and fading the league's elite. This week's plays aren't pretty, but there's plenty of value in three games in particular this weekend.
Week 1 system matches
Tennessee Titans (+2) vs. Minnesota Vikings
In one of the week's most interesting games, the Vikings opened as 3-point favorites back in late April and early public money pounded Minnesota, which caused the line to move to -3.5. Early last week quarterback Teddy Bridgewatersuffered a season-ending injury, with the Vikings eventually settling in as 1-point favorites.
On Saturday, Minnesota acquired Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eaglesin exchange for a first-round draft pick and a conditional fourth-rounder. It's still unclear whether Bradford or Shaun Hill will get the start Sunday, but the Vikings have already moved from a -1 back up to -2.
Over the past two seasons, Teddy Bridgewater (23-6 ATS) has been the most profitable quarterback in the league. Although he's not a flashy player, Bridgewater's quiet efficiency has been crucial to Minnesota's success and his presence will be sorely missed, regardless of who else happens to start at quarterback.
This is an excellent opportunity to sell high on a Minnesota team that's being overvalued based on the strength of last season's performance, even though there are serious concerns about chemistry. It's also a great spot to buy low on a talented young Titans team that's getting points at home.
The pick: Titans +2
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Employing a contrarian strategy means going against the grain and taking unpopular teams -- especially when they're facing an elite opponent.
The Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, receiving 82 percent of the spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. This lopsided public betting caused Green Bay to move to -5.5. We haven't tracked any sharp money indicators on the Packers, which means public money is solely responsible for this two-point line move.
Over the past 11 seasons, "four points" has been the fifth-most common margin of victory -- making this a fairly substantial line move. It's not pretty, but this is an opportunity to get free points based on public perception.
That's what is at the heart of contrarian betting.
The Jaguars also fit our vaunted 80/20 betting system, which was detailed in a 2010 Wall Street Journal article. Since 2005, underdogs receiving no more than 20 percent of spread bets have gone 107-84 ATS (56 percent) with +17.66 units won. That confirms my belief that Jacksonville is offering tremendous value as a home underdog.
The pick: Jaguars +5.5
Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks opened as 7-point favorites at the Westgate, receiving 56 percent of spread bets and 73 percent of total dollars wagered in this matchup. With most of the money taking the home team, Seattle has moved from -10.5 across the sports betting marketplace.
Last year, the Seahawks made the NFC divisional round before losing to the Panthers, while the Dolphins (6-10) finished in last place in the AFC East. In fact, the Dolphins haven't posted a winning record since 2008. That makes this the perfect buy-low/sell-high opportunity.
Since 2005, underdogs of at least 10.5-points have gone 176-145 ATS (54.8 percent) in regular season games. When the closing total is less than 48, their record improves to 158-116 ATS (57.7 percent). That trend bodes well for Miami in Week 1.
The Dolphins fit our Week 5 system from last year as well, and represent an excellent value as a large contrarian underdog. It may not be pretty, but I like Miami to stay close in a low-scoring game.
The pick: Miami +10.5
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
With the start of the 2016 NFL season, I'm excited to contribute this weekly column for the second straight year. During the 2015 regular season, my weekly picks produced a 25-19 against the spread record (56.82 percent), and here's to providing more winning picks and betting systems.
If you're unfamiliar with this column, we use contrarian strategies to find value in the betting marketplace. Whenever the public zigs, we zag. As one of the core philosophies at Sports Insights, it has yielded consistently profitable results.
To understand why the contrarian approach works, it's important to first understand the inner workings of a sportsbook. The point spread isn't the predicted margin of victory, nor are oddsmakers attempting to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side, thereby mitigating any risk. The truth here is that books shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception -- allowing their most-respected clients to shape the line.
Almost all bettors can be sorted into one of two categories: "sharps" and "squares." Sharps are typically wise guys or betting syndicates who spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Sharps are widely respected -- they're a smaller group that moves lines across the sports betting marketplace.
A majority of bettors can be categorized as squares. These casual weekend warriors place wagers based on gut-feelings and instinct, rather than research and analysis. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore they have a tendency to pound favorites and overs and point totals. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.
Every week in this column I'll explain how readers can capitalize on squares overreacting to blowouts, prolonged streaks or major injuries. We'll break down profitable betting trends, identify sharp money indicators, examine public betting behavior and share insights from several prominent oddsmakers.
In the first system of the new season, I wanted to take advantage of artificially skewed lines created <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>by overreactions to 2015 results. Even though it's a brand new season and many impactful players have changed teams, casual bettors are often slow to adapt -- placing excessive emphasis on playoff teams from the prior season.
Contrary to popular belief, most NFL lines don't originate in Las Vegas -- they're set by a handful of prominent offshore sportsbooks. To determine how Week 1 betting compared with the rest of the season, I reached out to Scott Cooley, an odds consultant for the market-setting Bookmaker.eu.
"Absolutely, bettors overreact to what they perceive as quality playoff teams from last year," Cooley said. "The world of sports wagering for the public is all about, 'what have you done for me lately?' The squares remember which teams were good last year, not which teams should be improved or worse this year."
Squares place an inordinate amount of value on a team's win-loss record from the previous season, and they also value teams' ATS records. Casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that consistently failed to cover the spread last season, and this tendency plays right into our hands -- just take a look at the numbers below and you'll see how good an investment going against the grain can be.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Missed Playoffs | 117-99 (54.2%) | +12.42 | +5.8% |
| Team Missed Playoffs, Opponent Made Playoffs | 47-29 (61.8%) | +14.77 | +19.4% |
| Losing ATS record, Missed Playoffs, Opp Made Playoffs | 34-13 (72.3%) | +18.96 | +40.3% |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
<tbody>
</tbody>
</aside>Sportsbooks are forced to shade their lines to account for the inevitable flood of public money coming in on favorites from the previous year -- creating additional value for contrarian bettors who are willing to put in the time and effort to discover a trend like this.
Why does this work?
Casual bettors often overreact to recent results. Entering the first week of a new season, bettors are limited in their ability to assess offseason transactions, so they use last season's results as their guide. This edge is amplified when the team also failed to cover the spread during the previous season.
Week 1 is especially unique, since lines open so early and receive a heavy volume of bets as the public is anxious to make bets on football after such a long layoff. According to Cooley, the handle during Week 1 is typically the largest of the regular season, and many casual bettors struggle with their bankroll management. This influx of public money will oftentimes create artificially inflated lines. Shrewd contrarian bettors can get free points by taking an unpopular stance.
Being a contrarian bettor means frequently rooting for the worst teams and fading the league's elite. This week's plays aren't pretty, but there's plenty of value in three games in particular this weekend.
Week 1 system matches
Tennessee Titans (+2) vs. Minnesota Vikings
In one of the week's most interesting games, the Vikings opened as 3-point favorites back in late April and early public money pounded Minnesota, which caused the line to move to -3.5. Early last week quarterback Teddy Bridgewatersuffered a season-ending injury, with the Vikings eventually settling in as 1-point favorites.
On Saturday, Minnesota acquired Sam Bradford from the Philadelphia Eaglesin exchange for a first-round draft pick and a conditional fourth-rounder. It's still unclear whether Bradford or Shaun Hill will get the start Sunday, but the Vikings have already moved from a -1 back up to -2.
Over the past two seasons, Teddy Bridgewater (23-6 ATS) has been the most profitable quarterback in the league. Although he's not a flashy player, Bridgewater's quiet efficiency has been crucial to Minnesota's success and his presence will be sorely missed, regardless of who else happens to start at quarterback.
This is an excellent opportunity to sell high on a Minnesota team that's being overvalued based on the strength of last season's performance, even though there are serious concerns about chemistry. It's also a great spot to buy low on a talented young Titans team that's getting points at home.
The pick: Titans +2
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) vs. Green Bay Packers
Employing a contrarian strategy means going against the grain and taking unpopular teams -- especially when they're facing an elite opponent.
The Packers opened as 3.5-point favorites at the Westgate Superbook, receiving 82 percent of the spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. This lopsided public betting caused Green Bay to move to -5.5. We haven't tracked any sharp money indicators on the Packers, which means public money is solely responsible for this two-point line move.
Over the past 11 seasons, "four points" has been the fifth-most common margin of victory -- making this a fairly substantial line move. It's not pretty, but this is an opportunity to get free points based on public perception.
That's what is at the heart of contrarian betting.
The Jaguars also fit our vaunted 80/20 betting system, which was detailed in a 2010 Wall Street Journal article. Since 2005, underdogs receiving no more than 20 percent of spread bets have gone 107-84 ATS (56 percent) with +17.66 units won. That confirms my belief that Jacksonville is offering tremendous value as a home underdog.
The pick: Jaguars +5.5
Miami Dolphins (+10.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks opened as 7-point favorites at the Westgate, receiving 56 percent of spread bets and 73 percent of total dollars wagered in this matchup. With most of the money taking the home team, Seattle has moved from -10.5 across the sports betting marketplace.
Last year, the Seahawks made the NFC divisional round before losing to the Panthers, while the Dolphins (6-10) finished in last place in the AFC East. In fact, the Dolphins haven't posted a winning record since 2008. That makes this the perfect buy-low/sell-high opportunity.
Since 2005, underdogs of at least 10.5-points have gone 176-145 ATS (54.8 percent) in regular season games. When the closing total is less than 48, their record improves to 158-116 ATS (57.7 percent). That trend bodes well for Miami in Week 1.
The Dolphins fit our Week 5 system from last year as well, and represent an excellent value as a large contrarian underdog. It may not be pretty, but I like Miami to stay close in a low-scoring game.
The pick: Miami +10.5
