I'm not too familiar with Catazaro off my head. I know he isn't really known as a long distance guy, but I'd guess NE was around 60-65% to win when factoring in the re-draw (would get the ball back with about 35 seconds left and Gost obviously has a leg) And really, Belichick made a pretty egregious error letting like 15-20 seconds come off the clock after the Fitzgerald catch. Weird how coaches mess that up no matter how smart or accomplished they are.
Catazaro to make the kick was probably around 40-45%.
Catazaro to make the kick was probably around 40-45%.
Receiving a kickoff with 30 seconds and no timeouts gives a team about 5% chance of kicking a winning field goal.
NFL kickers make over 50% from over 50 and over 75% from 40-49. (Looks to be around 65-70% from 45-49). There must be kickers who aren't good enough to even make the NFL who can make it from that distance 40% of the time. If I'm wrong, the best kickers may be the most underpaid players in all of professional sports. They would be worth about 10-points per year just on 40+ yard field goals).
No way New England should have been the favorite
Yeah, 60-65% win-rate for NE was probably a bit high of an estimate on my part. I was thinking Catanzaro was worse from 45-49 based on what the announcers were saying and his last few previous kicks. I looked it up and he was 16-18 from 40-49 last 2 years. 47 is on the further end of that and he was facing a pressure game-winning kick but he probably was still atleast 55% to hit it.
I know the sample is small but I'd like to see the data on 45-49 yarders inside of 1 minute for nationally televised night games. I think that would be an interesting subset. I'd guess the results are worse than normal expectation.
Shit, based on games I've watched I feel like it is sub-50%.
I know the sample is small but I'd like to see the data on 45-49 yarders inside of 1 minute for nationally televised night games. I think that would be an interesting subset. I'd guess the results are worse than normal expectation.
Shit, based on games I've watched I feel like it is sub-50%.
