[h=1]How to bet Los Angeles-San Francisco[/h]
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 1 games, including the Los Angeles-San Francisco matchup.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 1 games[/h]
[h=3]Matchup: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers[/h]Spread: Opened Los Angeles -2.5; now Los Angeles -2.5
Total: Opened 47; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Los Angeles
Public perception: The 49ers are the farthest thing from a public team since Jim Harbaugh left. When you combine that with the Rams returning to their Los Angeles roots (and being reality TV stars on "Hard Knocks"), it's not surprising that the public is backing the Rams in their opener.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game. This line opened L.A. -2.5 when the schedule was announced, and except for a few books dipping the line to 2 on occasion, it's stayed pretty solid.
Dave Tuley's take: The Rams are the better team (the NFL Vegas Power Rankings have them 4.5 points better than the 49ers, who are our lowest-rated team in the league), but I do believe home field can come into play here. It's hard to pull the trigger on a team led by Blaine Gabbert, but the 49ers were 5-3 ATS at home last season. That's not an earth-shattering record, but it's indicative of how competitive they were on their home field, including outright upsets of the Vikings (in the Monday Night Football opener!), Ravens, Falcons and these same Rams in the season finale (19-16 in overtime). For the most part, I think the defenses dominate and neither team has a consistent offense, so I'm expecting a repeat of that low-scoring last meeting.
The pick: 49ers*; lean to under 42.5 (shop around for 43).
Erin Rynning: Chip Kelly will need many adjustments to have any type of success in his new job. It was clear the Eagles essentially quit on Kelly last season, but the rest of the NFL clearly adapted to Kelly's schemes as well. With some of the worst offensive talent at skill positions in the NFL, it's difficult to sense quick success with this 49ers offense in the opener. Meanwhile, the Rams will present a unique challenge with their loaded defensive front led by Aaron Donald to counter San Francisco's rushing attack. Yes, it's also tricky anticipating high-octane offense from the Rams and Case Keenum, but they'll do enough, with perhaps a splash from special teams, to win the opener.
The pick: Rams
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin:
[h=3]First score of game will be: (TD -140, Any other +120)[/h]
Touchdown is always the favorite in this popular prop, and this line is about as close the two will get (Keenum vs. Gabbert has a way of doing that). The gut says to bet touchdown given the lines, but in the interest of exploring values (and to look at how bad these offenses could be) let's take a look at how last year played out.
On the San Francisco side, doing the legwork appears to be justified. The 16 49ers games last year saw nine touchdowns and seven other types as the first scores -- fairly close to the -140 line. But the Rams push this deep into touchdown territory -- in the 14 games that didn't come against the 49ers, there were 11 touchdowns and three other types of first scores. The sample size is small, sure -- but a 20-10 breakdown favors touchdown a little more than the odds do.
The play: Touchdown (-140)
NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 1 games, including the Los Angeles-San Francisco matchup.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday afternoon.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 1 games[/h]
Total: Opened 47; now 47.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 71 percent Los Angeles
Public perception: The 49ers are the farthest thing from a public team since Jim Harbaugh left. When you combine that with the Rams returning to their Los Angeles roots (and being reality TV stars on "Hard Knocks"), it's not surprising that the public is backing the Rams in their opener.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split on this game. This line opened L.A. -2.5 when the schedule was announced, and except for a few books dipping the line to 2 on occasion, it's stayed pretty solid.
Dave Tuley's take: The Rams are the better team (the NFL Vegas Power Rankings have them 4.5 points better than the 49ers, who are our lowest-rated team in the league), but I do believe home field can come into play here. It's hard to pull the trigger on a team led by Blaine Gabbert, but the 49ers were 5-3 ATS at home last season. That's not an earth-shattering record, but it's indicative of how competitive they were on their home field, including outright upsets of the Vikings (in the Monday Night Football opener!), Ravens, Falcons and these same Rams in the season finale (19-16 in overtime). For the most part, I think the defenses dominate and neither team has a consistent offense, so I'm expecting a repeat of that low-scoring last meeting.
The pick: 49ers*; lean to under 42.5 (shop around for 43).
Erin Rynning: Chip Kelly will need many adjustments to have any type of success in his new job. It was clear the Eagles essentially quit on Kelly last season, but the rest of the NFL clearly adapted to Kelly's schemes as well. With some of the worst offensive talent at skill positions in the NFL, it's difficult to sense quick success with this 49ers offense in the opener. Meanwhile, the Rams will present a unique challenge with their loaded defensive front led by Aaron Donald to counter San Francisco's rushing attack. Yes, it's also tricky anticipating high-octane offense from the Rams and Case Keenum, but they'll do enough, with perhaps a splash from special teams, to win the opener.
The pick: Rams
[h=2]Prop bets[/h]John Parolin:
[h=3]First score of game will be: (TD -140, Any other +120)[/h]
Touchdown is always the favorite in this popular prop, and this line is about as close the two will get (Keenum vs. Gabbert has a way of doing that). The gut says to bet touchdown given the lines, but in the interest of exploring values (and to look at how bad these offenses could be) let's take a look at how last year played out.
On the San Francisco side, doing the legwork appears to be justified. The 16 49ers games last year saw nine touchdowns and seven other types as the first scores -- fairly close to the -140 line. But the Rams push this deep into touchdown territory -- in the 14 games that didn't come against the 49ers, there were 11 touchdowns and three other types of first scores. The sample size is small, sure -- but a 20-10 breakdown favors touchdown a little more than the odds do.
The play: Touchdown (-140)
