NFL Season Plays

xxthevillexx · Sep 12, 2016

Went ahead and started a season thread, i will transfer over this weeks record once the late game is over. Each unit is $50, thanks to all the cappers and posters on here!
Week 1 Plays were:

1u - NE +310 = Win ($155)

1u - Parlay +273: Pit -3, U50 = Loss (-$50)

1u - Parlay +291: Rams -3, O42.5 = TBD

Week 2 plays:

ATS

1u - NE -6.5
1u - Jets PK
2u - Lions - 5.5

ML

1u - Browns +245
2u - Saints +185

Totals

1u - Jets/Bills O 40.5
2u - Pats/Dolphins O 41.5
1u - Falcons/Raiders O 48

I know its early, but i wanted to get them out there while i had the time to look! BOL

-ville

xxthevillexx · Sep 13, 2016

1u - NE +310 = Win ($155)

1u - Parlay +273: Pit -3, U50 = Loss (-$50)

1u - Parlay +291: Rams -3, O42.5 = Loss (-$50)

Season Record: 1-2 (+$55)

xxthevillexx · Sep 16, 2016

ATS

1U - Jets = WIN

Season Record: 2-2 (+$98)

hope y'all had a good night

xxthevillexx · Sep 18, 2016

Whoops forgot to add in the Thursday night total.

1u - jets/bills O 40.5 = win ...... Season record: 3-2 (+$143)

Adding two more plays for today...

1u - Green Bay -1

1u - Bengals/Steelers U 48.5

Best of luck to everybody

xxthevillexx · Sep 18, 2016

ATS

1u - NE -6.5...Win
1u - Jets PK...Win
2u - Lions - 5.5...Loss
1u - GB -1...Loss

ML

1u - Browns +245...loss
2u - Saints +185...loss

Totals

1u - Jets/Bills O 40.5...Win
2u - Pats/Dolphins O 41.5...Win
1u - Falcons/Raiders O 48...Win
1u - Bengals/Steelers U 48.5...Win

Week 2 Record: 6-4 (-$55)

Season Record: 7-5 (+$88)

Both ML plays were tough losses, thought i had them! Not a great week but it could have been worse.

Hope you all had success this week!

-ville

Saints2016 · Sep 19, 2016

Go get em next week. Good luck

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

What did we learn from week 2 that can help moving forward?

-Of the 15 games, 8 of them went over, 7 went under
-Favorites were 8-7 ATS
-The Patriots will struggle if Garoppolo cannot play thursday, they only scored 10 points after he was out.
-The giants have a legit defense, and should be considered for any under wagers.
-The chiefs offense was exposed today, and will have trouble against defenses with a good pass rush
-The seahawks have alot of issues on offense, and have scored 15 combined points so far
-The raiders will score alot of points, and should be considered for over wagers
-Fade the jags
-The lions are once again inconsistent, have numerous offensive problems, fade
-The bills are poised to fall apart...might think about fading them especially with the potential of firing rex ryan
-The browns will struggle all season (again), and will be worth looking at for unders and betting on the team they are playing
-Green bay will be looking for revenge, and they come home against the lions
-The Bengals are well...the bengals and you really never know what youre going to get with them, they are a bad road team
-The dolphins are hungry for a win, and have lost by a combined 9 points so far this year
-Arizona finally played like they should, and are very good at home

So considering all of those, i am leaning towards these plays for week 3:

ATS

Arizona -4
Packers - 8
Dolphins -7
Carolina -6.5
Ravens PK
NE +2.5 (if garoppolo plays)
Raiders +1
Jets +3

Totals

Cardinals/Bills O 47
Raiders O 46.5
Chiefs/Jets O 43.5
Ravens/Jags U 47.5
Falcons/Saints U 52.5

Let me know what you think!

-ville

seer · Sep 19, 2016

imo it is a big mistake capping on what you just saw. it is how many got in trouble taking the seahawks today after st lou was eggshelled last week

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

seer said:
imo it is a big mistake capping on what you just saw. it is how many got in trouble taking the seahawks today after st lou was eggshelled last week

Just giving everybody my two cents on the week, i considered more than what i just saw on these, but i appreciate the advice..i stayed away from that game because i noticed that the seahawks only scored 12 points on the shitty dolphins defense, and it was LA's first home game. Anyways, i dont have that much time during the week so i like to figure out the direction im gonna head early on.

seer · Sep 19, 2016

the recap you did is good. capping one week to the very next is extremely tricky. atl, min, jets, dallas, tenessee, houston, rams were all mild to big surprises.
ten and rams looked the worst week 1 yet pulled off the largest upsets of the day.

what i do is take note of boxscores see if that team can duplicate the same success in weeks ahead and wipe the complete slate clean for week 2...teams that lost will have coaches tweaking their playbooks so u dont know wat they will do for a win next week.
thanks for the notes u took though they looked accurate. seattle needs an oline badly other than that they are sound everywhere else

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

seer said:
the recap you did is good. capping one week to the very next is extremely tricky. atl, min, jets, dallas, tenessee, houston, rams were all mild to big surprises.
ten and rams looked the worst week 1 yet pulled off the largest upsets of the day.

what i do is take note of boxscores see if that team can duplicate the same success in weeks ahead and wipe the complete slate clean for week 2...teams that lost will have coaches tweaking their playbooks so u dont know wat they will do for a win next week.
thanks for the notes u took though they looked accurate. seattle needs an oline badly other than that they are sound everywhere else

No problem, yeah youre right about it being tricky, and week to week capping isnt always perfect. I will definitely try your method in the future, see how it works for me. Thanks seer

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

Adding...

1u - Bears -3

2u - Bears/Eagles O 42.5

chicago at home coming off a frustrating loss @ Houston, philly beat a bad Cleveland team and still have some progression to go through with a new QB, also ryan mathews didn't play great last game and I think he will struggle tonight which puts additional pressure on wentz. Cutler has experience in this type of game, which goes a long way with ball control and game management, yes he hadn't been the most consistent but he has many weapons and a solid RB in Langford. Although it's hard to tell after 1 week how good either team is, we do know that they have potential for offensive execution which will lead to TDs rather than FGs. I look for this total to be 45 and go over. Score prediction: Chi: 28 Philly: 17

best of luck and have a great day!!!!

-ville

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

Saints2016 said:
Go get em next week. Good luck

Thanks saints much appreciated

xxthevillexx · Sep 19, 2016

1u - Bears -3...loss

2u - Bears/Eagles O 42.5...win

Season Record: 8-6 (+2.28u)

Hope yall had a good one

phantom888 · Sep 20, 2016

Good recap Mr Ville!

Week to week, the NFL is tough to cap. Public perception always isn't what it seems. Linesmakers always uses this public perception to set the lines to create the wagering to go both ways.

Mr Seer is a good capper, we can all learn from him.

Thanks fellas! goodluck this season!

xxthevillexx · Sep 20, 2016

phantom888 said:
Good recap Mr Ville!

Week to week, the NFL is tough to cap. Public perception always isn't what it seems. Linesmakers always uses this public perception to set the lines to create the wagering to go both ways.

Mr Seer is a good capper, we can all learn from him.

Thanks fellas! goodluck this season!

Thanks phantom...i see where you and seer are coming and i will consider this from now on, we will see how this week goes. Goodluck buddy

phantom888 · Sep 20, 2016

xxthevillexx said:
Thanks phantom...i see where you and seer are coming and i will consider this from now on, we will see how this week goes. Goodluck buddy

BUT, keep postin your recaps and thoughts post-week action. Sometimes by we learn by what we see and write down. Trends and tendencies become exposed and therefore we can exploit.

xxthevillexx · Sep 21, 2016

phantom888 said:
BUT, keep postin your recaps and thoughts post-week action. Sometimes by we learn by what we see and write down. Trends and tendencies become exposed and therefore we can exploit.

I agree, which is why I wanted to do it. I'm trying to collaborate with folks on here and get opinions so we can all make $$ lol.

xxthevillexx · Sep 21, 2016

Decided on a few picks so far:

ATS

1u - Raiders +1.5...Like oaklands ability to throw against the titans sunday, tennesse is still not operating at a high level. I think that they will take care of business and win by 10.

2u - Jets +3..i liked the way the jets offense played last week, and the chiefs are a little beat up from the texans. This game should be close but i believe NY will outlast KC and win by 6.

Totals

1u - Jets/Chiefs O 42...The jets showed their ability to score last thursday against the bills putting up 37, while the chiefs struggled against a solid texans team. I think that this will be more of an offensive battle than anything, both teams have subpar defenses and will rely on their ability to get into the end zone to Win. This week could be a bounceback week for KC, although they have unanswered questions, they should be able to score like the bills did and make the most of their chances. Look for this to be around 50.

2u - Broncos/Benglas O 41...This week the broncos come to Cinci at 2-0 and have showcased their highly effective defense in both games. The bengals have struggled offensively, but i think it changes this week and AJ green has a big game. This one should be close until the end and may be decided by a FG, look for this one to be around 45.

1u - Jags/Ravens U 47...the Jags are once again in the discussion of worst team in the league, and they have had trouble in all aspects especially O, scoring 23 and 14 both weeks. They also give up alot of points, but the ravens have an average offense at best. Look for this one to be around 38

xxthevillexx · Sep 25, 2016

Adding

1u - lions/packers O 47.5

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