Week 2 NFL betting line moves
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- NFL Week 1 is in the books, with the underdogs going 8-6-2 against the spread, including six outright upsets. The pushes were the Bengals and Giants closing as 1-point favorites and winning by exactly that margin.
This is our weekly opening line report to look ahead to Week 2 and see how the lines got into place. But as you'll see, the past weekend's results have a direct effect on how the lines are tweaked by the sportsbooks.
It's not rocket science. The advance lines get taken down on Sunday mornings, and the following week's lines are reposted after the day's action right around 4:30 p.m. PT. Basically, if the two teams perform as expected (either both winning or both losing, or with results that are pretty close to the point spreads), that game's line will be about the same. If one team wins and the other loses, the line will move toward the team with the better result (and the more lopsided the results, the more the adjustment will tend to be).
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook tries its best to post lines on all NFL games (including the teams playing that Sunday night and on Monday night, while most books keep those off the board), though sometimes unclear injury news will preclude that. This week, all 16 Week 2 games were posted, despite the injuries to Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson.
Here's a look at the opening line moves for Week 2 (current lines listed are as of late Monday night):
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Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the previous Tuesday (so Week 3 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
[h=2]Thursday[/h]
New York (A) at Buffalo (pick 'em)
The Westgate had the Bills as 3-point home favorites on the advance line last week, and after both teams lost Sunday, they reposted it right there. Some offshore books, as well as Boyd Gaming and the Wynn, both went with Bills -3 (even) while some others were at -2.5. Westgate moved to -3 (even) on Sunday night, so early bettors seem to like how the Jets looked on Sunday compared to the Bills. When the news came out that Buffalo wide receiverSammy Watkins was questionable to play on the short week, the line continued to move toward pick 'em.
[h=2]Sunday[/h]
Kansas City at Houston (-2.5)
The advance line was Houston -1.5, and after both teams rallied Sunday (with the Chiefs losing ground in their eventual victory), the line was increased to Houston -2. It mostly bounced between -1.5 and -2 before getting bet up to -2.5 on Monday.
Miami at New England (-6.5)
The Patriots were -5.5 on the advance line. The Dolphins played the Seahawks tough on Sunday afternoon, and the line was put up at New England -5 and was bet down to -4.5 in early betting. But then the Patriots beat the Cardinals on Sunday night with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and it was readjusted to -6.5.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
The Ravens were -3.5 on the advance line, and it was reposted at -4.5 after the Ravens beat the Bills and the Browns were routed by the Eagles. When Robert Griffin III was sent to injured reserve, the line was moved to 7. There's been support for Josh McCown and the Browns and the line has been bet down to 6.5 at most books.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
The advance line had the Steelers -3.5 and after the Bengals edged the Jets 23-22, it was reposted at the same line. The game was taken off the board when Pittsburgh kicked off Monday night. With the way the Steelers routed the Redskins 38-16, this line is sure to go higher (at least to -4 and probably higher).
Dallas at Washington (-3.5)
The advance line had the Redskins -3.5, and after the Cowboys barely lost 20-19 to the Giants, it was reposted at the same line. The game was taken off the board when Washington kicked off Monday night. With the Redskins losing 38-16 to the Steelers, this line will probably drop to Washington -3.
New Orleans at New York (N) (-5.5)
The Giants were 4.5-point favorites on the advance line and it was increased to -5 at the Westgate after the Giants had a narrow win and the Saints had a narrow loss on Sunday. CG Technology went as high at Giants -6, so we've seen the line settle at -5.5, though several offshore books are at -5.
San Francisco at Carolina (-14)
The advance line was Panthers -13.5 and it was reposted at the same number after the Panthers lost the opener at Denver but was bet up to -14 before being taken off the board when the 49ers kicked off Monday night. After the 49ers' 28-0 win over Los Angeles, this should probably dip back to less than two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay at Arizona (-6.5)
The Cardinals were 8.5-point favorites last week and the number was adjusted to -7.5 after the Buccaneers beat the Falcons on Sunday. Early betting dropped it to -7, and then after the Cardinals lost to the Patriots, the line was further adjusted to Arizona -6.5.
Seattle (OFF) at Los Angeles
The Seahawks were 4.5-point faves on the advance line, and it was reposted at 3.5 after Seattle struggled to beat Miami. The game was taken off the board as concerns over Russell Wilson's health arose on Monday. The Rams obviously looked terrible in Monday night's 28-0 loss to the 49ers, so this line will probably go up to around Seattle -6 if Wilson is able to play.
Indianapolis at Denver (-6)
The advance line was -3.5, but after the Broncos beat the Panthers and the Colts lost to the Lions, the Westgate increased it to Denver -4. However, CG Technology went with -5.5, and Boyd Gaming went even higher at -6; on Monday, every book was sitting at Denver -6.
Atlanta at Oakland (-5.5)
The advance line was Raiders -4.5, and after they rallied to beat the Saints and the Falcons lost to the Buccaneers, the Westgate reposted the line at Oakland -6.5. Several books opened lower, and the line has been bouncing between -4.5 and -5.5.
Jacksonville at San Diego (-3, -120)
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</article>The Chargers were -3 last week and the line was reposted at San Diego -2.5 on Sunday afternoon
after both teams lost but covered in their Week 1 games. Most Vegas books went with a 3-point spread, while offshores were split between -2.5 and -3. The Chargers have been getting more early support as the line has been bet to -3 (-120), despite the season-ending injury to wideout Keenan Allen.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Minnesota
This was pick 'em on the advance line, but after both teams won Sunday, the line was reposted as Green Bay -1.5 at the Westgate. Other Vegas books went even higher at -2.5, with some offshore going as high as -3. The line continues to waver between -2.5 and -3 as of late Monday night, with the Westgate up to Packers -2.5.
[h=2]Monday[/h]
Philadelphia at Chicago (-3, -120)
The advance line was Bears -3 (-120), and the Westgate reposted it at -2.5 after the Eagles won and Bears lost on Sunday. However, the Greek offshore book and the William Hill and Boyd Gaming books in Vegas went with -3, so the Westgate moved in that direction as well and is now up to -3 (-120).
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- NFL Week 1 is in the books, with the underdogs going 8-6-2 against the spread, including six outright upsets. The pushes were the Bengals and Giants closing as 1-point favorites and winning by exactly that margin.
This is our weekly opening line report to look ahead to Week 2 and see how the lines got into place. But as you'll see, the past weekend's results have a direct effect on how the lines are tweaked by the sportsbooks.
It's not rocket science. The advance lines get taken down on Sunday mornings, and the following week's lines are reposted after the day's action right around 4:30 p.m. PT. Basically, if the two teams perform as expected (either both winning or both losing, or with results that are pretty close to the point spreads), that game's line will be about the same. If one team wins and the other loses, the line will move toward the team with the better result (and the more lopsided the results, the more the adjustment will tend to be).
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook tries its best to post lines on all NFL games (including the teams playing that Sunday night and on Monday night, while most books keep those off the board), though sometimes unclear injury news will preclude that. This week, all 16 Week 2 games were posted, despite the injuries to Robert Griffin III and Russell Wilson.
Here's a look at the opening line moves for Week 2 (current lines listed are as of late Monday night):
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the previous Tuesday (so Week 3 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
[h=2]Thursday[/h]
New York (A) at Buffalo (pick 'em)
The Westgate had the Bills as 3-point home favorites on the advance line last week, and after both teams lost Sunday, they reposted it right there. Some offshore books, as well as Boyd Gaming and the Wynn, both went with Bills -3 (even) while some others were at -2.5. Westgate moved to -3 (even) on Sunday night, so early bettors seem to like how the Jets looked on Sunday compared to the Bills. When the news came out that Buffalo wide receiverSammy Watkins was questionable to play on the short week, the line continued to move toward pick 'em.
[h=2]Sunday[/h]
Kansas City at Houston (-2.5)
The advance line was Houston -1.5, and after both teams rallied Sunday (with the Chiefs losing ground in their eventual victory), the line was increased to Houston -2. It mostly bounced between -1.5 and -2 before getting bet up to -2.5 on Monday.
Miami at New England (-6.5)
The Patriots were -5.5 on the advance line. The Dolphins played the Seahawks tough on Sunday afternoon, and the line was put up at New England -5 and was bet down to -4.5 in early betting. But then the Patriots beat the Cardinals on Sunday night with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and it was readjusted to -6.5.
Baltimore (-6.5) at Cleveland
The Ravens were -3.5 on the advance line, and it was reposted at -4.5 after the Ravens beat the Bills and the Browns were routed by the Eagles. When Robert Griffin III was sent to injured reserve, the line was moved to 7. There's been support for Josh McCown and the Browns and the line has been bet down to 6.5 at most books.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
The advance line had the Steelers -3.5 and after the Bengals edged the Jets 23-22, it was reposted at the same line. The game was taken off the board when Pittsburgh kicked off Monday night. With the way the Steelers routed the Redskins 38-16, this line is sure to go higher (at least to -4 and probably higher).
Dallas at Washington (-3.5)
The advance line had the Redskins -3.5, and after the Cowboys barely lost 20-19 to the Giants, it was reposted at the same line. The game was taken off the board when Washington kicked off Monday night. With the Redskins losing 38-16 to the Steelers, this line will probably drop to Washington -3.
New Orleans at New York (N) (-5.5)
The Giants were 4.5-point favorites on the advance line and it was increased to -5 at the Westgate after the Giants had a narrow win and the Saints had a narrow loss on Sunday. CG Technology went as high at Giants -6, so we've seen the line settle at -5.5, though several offshore books are at -5.
San Francisco at Carolina (-14)
The advance line was Panthers -13.5 and it was reposted at the same number after the Panthers lost the opener at Denver but was bet up to -14 before being taken off the board when the 49ers kicked off Monday night. After the 49ers' 28-0 win over Los Angeles, this should probably dip back to less than two touchdowns.
Tampa Bay at Arizona (-6.5)
The Cardinals were 8.5-point favorites last week and the number was adjusted to -7.5 after the Buccaneers beat the Falcons on Sunday. Early betting dropped it to -7, and then after the Cardinals lost to the Patriots, the line was further adjusted to Arizona -6.5.
Seattle (OFF) at Los Angeles
The Seahawks were 4.5-point faves on the advance line, and it was reposted at 3.5 after Seattle struggled to beat Miami. The game was taken off the board as concerns over Russell Wilson's health arose on Monday. The Rams obviously looked terrible in Monday night's 28-0 loss to the 49ers, so this line will probably go up to around Seattle -6 if Wilson is able to play.
Indianapolis at Denver (-6)
The advance line was -3.5, but after the Broncos beat the Panthers and the Colts lost to the Lions, the Westgate increased it to Denver -4. However, CG Technology went with -5.5, and Boyd Gaming went even higher at -6; on Monday, every book was sitting at Denver -6.
Atlanta at Oakland (-5.5)
The advance line was Raiders -4.5, and after they rallied to beat the Saints and the Falcons lost to the Buccaneers, the Westgate reposted the line at Oakland -6.5. Several books opened lower, and the line has been bouncing between -4.5 and -5.5.
Jacksonville at San Diego (-3, -120)
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</article>The Chargers were -3 last week and the line was reposted at San Diego -2.5 on Sunday afternoon
after both teams lost but covered in their Week 1 games. Most Vegas books went with a 3-point spread, while offshores were split between -2.5 and -3. The Chargers have been getting more early support as the line has been bet to -3 (-120), despite the season-ending injury to wideout Keenan Allen.
Green Bay (-2.5) at Minnesota
This was pick 'em on the advance line, but after both teams won Sunday, the line was reposted as Green Bay -1.5 at the Westgate. Other Vegas books went even higher at -2.5, with some offshore going as high as -3. The line continues to waver between -2.5 and -3 as of late Monday night, with the Westgate up to Packers -2.5.
[h=2]Monday[/h]
Philadelphia at Chicago (-3, -120)
The advance line was Bears -3 (-120), and the Westgate reposted it at -2.5 after the Eagles won and Bears lost on Sunday. However, the Greek offshore book and the William Hill and Boyd Gaming books in Vegas went with -3, so the Westgate moved in that direction as well and is now up to -3 (-120).
