Vegas handicappers rank all 32 NFL teams: Seattle drops from No. 1
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- After the first week of the 2016 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seattle Seahawks were our No. 1 team heading into the season, but they never came close to covering as 10.5-point home favorites in their 12-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. That lackluster performance caused our panel to drop the Seahawks' power rating by 2 full points and paved the way for the Packers and Steelers to ascend to the top spot.
The Packers held off the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23, covering after closing as 3.5-point road favorites, though they didn't cover against higher earlier numbers. Still, our panel saw enough to raise their power rating by half a point. The Steelers routed theWashington Redskins 38-16 on Monday Night Football and earned a 1.5-point increase from our panel to catch the Packers for the top spot.
Here's a look at where all 32 teams rank, which ones made the biggest moves up and down and some Week 2 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Movin' on up
The San Francisco 49ers, our lowest-rated team heading into the season, earned this week's biggest increase. The 49ers routed the Los Angeles Rams 28-0 in the Monday Night Football nightcap and were upgraded 2.5 points by our panel. Two teams earned 1.5-point increases: the Patriots for their 23-21 win over our former No. 2 team in Arizona, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 31-24 upset as 2.5-point road underdogs in Atlanta.
Dropping down
Not surprisingly, the Rams were the team downgraded the most for that same 28-0 loss in San Francisco, as our panel docked them 2.5 points. In addition to the Seahawks' 2-point deduction as discussed above, the Cleveland Brownswere also downgraded 2 full points for their 29-10 loss at Philadelphia, plus the loss of quarterback Robert Griffin III for at least eight weeks. The Falcons, Redskins and Titans also saw their power rating reduced by 1.5 points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<tbody>
</tbody></aside>
Week 2 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread -- as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
These value plays for off to a hot start at 3-0 ATS in Week 1, as the Broncos beat the Panthers outright as 3-point home underdogs in the Thursday night opener and the Vikings -2 and Steelers -3 (-120) also covered as road favorites.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 1 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Vegas consensus line: New England -6.5
Vegas Ranks: New England -6 (25.5-19.5)
Our panel's combined number has the Patriots as 6 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, so with New England's significant home-field advantage, we believe this line should be more than a touchdown even when crossing the key number of 7. With the current line at 6.5 (and some books, including the Westgate SuperBook, at Patriots -6), our numbers see value on the home favorite.
The play: New England -6.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Vegas consensus line: Carolina -13.5
Vegas Ranks: Carolina -7.5 (24.5-17)
This is the biggest spread of the week. The Panthers are rated 7.5 points better than the 49ers if they were to meet on a neutral field, so even with Carolina's home-field advantage, we only believe this line should be bumped up to around 10 or 10.5. That gives a little value on the 49ers -- who obviously won't have as easy of a game as they got against the Rams on Monday night -- getting nearly two touchdowns.
The play: 49ers +13.5
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears(Monday)
Vegas consensus line: Chicago -3 (-120)
Vegas Ranks: Philadelphia -0.5 (18.5-18)
Our panel actually has the underdog Eagles rated half a point better than the Bears on a neutral field. With Chicago's home-field advantage, it makes sense that the Bears are favored, but we believe it should only be by a point or two. With the Bears at -3 (-120) -- and there's a decent chance we could see it go to 3.5 -- the value is on the Eagles, especially if rookie quarteback Carson Wentzplays as well as he did in his debut.
The play: Eagles +3 (EVEN).
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- After the first week of the 2016 NFL season, the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
The Seattle Seahawks were our No. 1 team heading into the season, but they never came close to covering as 10.5-point home favorites in their 12-10 win over the Miami Dolphins. That lackluster performance caused our panel to drop the Seahawks' power rating by 2 full points and paved the way for the Packers and Steelers to ascend to the top spot.
The Packers held off the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-23, covering after closing as 3.5-point road favorites, though they didn't cover against higher earlier numbers. Still, our panel saw enough to raise their power rating by half a point. The Steelers routed theWashington Redskins 38-16 on Monday Night Football and earned a 1.5-point increase from our panel to catch the Packers for the top spot.
Here's a look at where all 32 teams rank, which ones made the biggest moves up and down and some Week 2 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Movin' on up
The San Francisco 49ers, our lowest-rated team heading into the season, earned this week's biggest increase. The 49ers routed the Los Angeles Rams 28-0 in the Monday Night Football nightcap and were upgraded 2.5 points by our panel. Two teams earned 1.5-point increases: the Patriots for their 23-21 win over our former No. 2 team in Arizona, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for their 31-24 upset as 2.5-point road underdogs in Atlanta.
Dropping down
Not surprisingly, the Rams were the team downgraded the most for that same 28-0 loss in San Francisco, as our panel docked them 2.5 points. In addition to the Seahawks' 2-point deduction as discussed above, the Cleveland Brownswere also downgraded 2 full points for their 29-10 loss at Philadelphia, plus the loss of quarterback Robert Griffin III for at least eight weeks. The Falcons, Redskins and Titans also saw their power rating reduced by 1.5 points.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| RANK | TEAM | SEPT. 6 | SEPT. 13 | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T-1 | Green Bay | 26 | 26.5 | 6-1 |
| T-1 | Pittsburgh | 25 | 26.5 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Arizona | 26.5 | 26 | 8-1 |
| 4 | New England | 24 | 25.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | Seattle | 27 | 25 | 8-1 |
| 6 | Carolina | 24.5 | 24.5 | 14-1 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 24 | 24 | 20-1 |
| 8 | Denver | 23.5 | 23.5 | 25-1 |
| 9 | Minnesota | 22.5 | 23 | 20-1 |
| 10 | Kansas City | 23.5 | 22.5 | 20-1 |
| 11 | Baltimore | 22 | 22 | 20-1 |
| T-12 | Indianapolis | 22 | 21.5 | 40-1 |
| T-12 | Houston | 21 | 21.5 | 18-1 |
| T-12 | New York (A) | 21.5 | 21.5 | 60-1 |
| T-15 | Oakland | 20.5 | 21 | 20-1 |
| T-15 | New York (N) | 20 | 21 | 18-1 |
| 17 | Tampa Bay | 18.5 | 20 | 60-1 |
| T-18 | Buffalo | 20 | 19.5 | 80-1 |
| T-18 | Miami | 18.5 | 19.5 | 80-1 |
| T-20 | Detroit | 18 | 19 | 60-1 |
| T-20 | Jacksonville | 19 | 19 | 80-1 |
| T-20 | Atlanta | 20.5 | 19 | 100-1 |
| T-23 | San Diego | 18 | 18.5 | 60-1 |
| T-23 | Dallas | 19 | 18.5 | 30-1 |
| T-23 | Philadelphia | 17 | 18.5 | 80-1 |
| T-26 | Chicago | 18 | 18 | 100-1 |
| T-26 | New Orleans | 18 | 18 | 100-1 |
| 28 | Washington | 19 | 17.5 | 40-1 |
| 29 | San Francisco | 14.5 | 17 | 100-1 |
| 30 | Los Angeles | 19 | 16.5 | 100-1 |
| 31 | Tennessee | 17.5 | 16 | 100-1 |
| 32 | Cleveland | 15 | 13 | 500-1 |
| Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Sept. 13 |
<tbody>
</tbody>
Week 2 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread -- as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
These value plays for off to a hot start at 3-0 ATS in Week 1, as the Broncos beat the Panthers outright as 3-point home underdogs in the Thursday night opener and the Vikings -2 and Steelers -3 (-120) also covered as road favorites.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 1 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Vegas consensus line: New England -6.5
Vegas Ranks: New England -6 (25.5-19.5)
Our panel's combined number has the Patriots as 6 points better than the Dolphins on a neutral field, so with New England's significant home-field advantage, we believe this line should be more than a touchdown even when crossing the key number of 7. With the current line at 6.5 (and some books, including the Westgate SuperBook, at Patriots -6), our numbers see value on the home favorite.
The play: New England -6.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers
Vegas consensus line: Carolina -13.5
Vegas Ranks: Carolina -7.5 (24.5-17)
This is the biggest spread of the week. The Panthers are rated 7.5 points better than the 49ers if they were to meet on a neutral field, so even with Carolina's home-field advantage, we only believe this line should be bumped up to around 10 or 10.5. That gives a little value on the 49ers -- who obviously won't have as easy of a game as they got against the Rams on Monday night -- getting nearly two touchdowns.
The play: 49ers +13.5
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
Vegas consensus line: Chicago -3 (-120)
Vegas Ranks: Philadelphia -0.5 (18.5-18)
Our panel actually has the underdog Eagles rated half a point better than the Bears on a neutral field. With Chicago's home-field advantage, it makes sense that the Bears are favored, but we believe it should only be by a point or two. With the Bears at -3 (-120) -- and there's a decent chance we could see it go to 3.5 -- the value is on the Eagles, especially if rookie quarteback Carson Wentzplays as well as he did in his debut.
The play: Eagles +3 (EVEN).
