[h=1]How to bet Green Bay-Minnesota[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 2 games, including the Green Bay-Minnesota matchup on Sunday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 2 games[/h]
[h=3]Matchup: Green Bay Packers atMinnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Opened Green Bay -1.5; now Green Bay -2.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The Vikings topped the Packers for the NFC North title last year, but the public still loves the Pack and are backing them at around an 80-percent clip, according to ESPN PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites.
Wiseguys' view: The Westgate opened this at Green Bay -1.5 (which shows its oddsmakers thought this should be closer to pick 'em), but other books went with 2.5 and the Westgate fell in line. The sharp action has been mostly split (and leaning in favor of the Vikings), keeping this line from steaming to 3 (though as of this writing, the Boyd Gaming books in Nevada were at Green Bay -3 (+105), meaning Minnesota was +3 (-125).)
Dave Tuley's take: If there was no such thing as public perception, this line would be pick 'em or might even feature the Vikings as home favorites. As stated above, they overcame the Packers last year as the best team in the division. They have the far better defense (and should be harassing Aaron Rodgers all night) and the only question is how Sam Bradford does running the offense, assuming he does indeed get the start. I'm betting on him being just fine, as Adrian Peterson's running should set up Bradford's play-action passes nicely.
The pick: Vikings +2.5*.
Erin Rynning: The Packers' offense will be much better than the unit that ranked 23rd in yards per game last season. They shined bright in 2015 during their first six games before injury, attrition and lack of execution troubled the franchise. With a healthy Jordy Nelson back into the fold, a slimmed and motivated Eddie Lacy, and a more stable offensive line, the Packers will finish in the top five of NFL offenses.
There are a couple of key injuries at the cornerback position for both clubs entering the Sunday night rivalry affair. Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes has been ruled out and Green Bay's Sam Shields has also been ruled out after not practicing this week.
Key players missing from either secondary on what is expected to be a fast track in the U.S. Bank Stadium opener? This game has a solid chance to go over the manageable total.
Pick: OVER 43 or less
[h=3]Prop bet[/h]253.5 Pass yds by Aaron Rodgers (O/U -110)
You can give Aaron Rodgers credit for quite a few things, and chief among them is his consistency. Rodgers has made 120 regular-season starts in his career, throwing for at least 254 yards in 72 games (60 percent). In 15 career starts against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has reached 254 yards nine times -- also 60 percent.
But are there recent concerns with Rodgers' production? With no Jordy Nelson last year, Rodgers posted a career-worst 6.7 yards per attempt average. His Week 1 performance against the Jaguars was even worse -- 5.9 yards per attempt for 199 yards. From 2007-13 (Adrian Peterson's pre-Bridgewater career), Vikings opponents averaged 36 pass attempts per game. At Rodgers' 6.7 yards per attempt average from last year, he hits 241 yards. But using his second-worst career average as a guide, he gets 270 -- well ahead of the target. Shaking the rust off is one thing, but 253.5 is just too low.
The play: Over
[h=3]Mike Clay[/h]Projected score: Green Bay 23, Minnesota 21
The pick: Minnesota and the over
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 2 games, including the Green Bay-Minnesota matchup on Sunday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Saturday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 2 games[/h]
[h=3]Matchup: Green Bay Packers atMinnesota Vikings[/h]Spread: Opened Green Bay -1.5; now Green Bay -2.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 43
PickCenter public consensus pick: 81 percent Green Bay
Public perception: The Vikings topped the Packers for the NFC North title last year, but the public still loves the Pack and are backing them at around an 80-percent clip, according to ESPN PickCenter and other bet-tracking sites.
Wiseguys' view: The Westgate opened this at Green Bay -1.5 (which shows its oddsmakers thought this should be closer to pick 'em), but other books went with 2.5 and the Westgate fell in line. The sharp action has been mostly split (and leaning in favor of the Vikings), keeping this line from steaming to 3 (though as of this writing, the Boyd Gaming books in Nevada were at Green Bay -3 (+105), meaning Minnesota was +3 (-125).)
Dave Tuley's take: If there was no such thing as public perception, this line would be pick 'em or might even feature the Vikings as home favorites. As stated above, they overcame the Packers last year as the best team in the division. They have the far better defense (and should be harassing Aaron Rodgers all night) and the only question is how Sam Bradford does running the offense, assuming he does indeed get the start. I'm betting on him being just fine, as Adrian Peterson's running should set up Bradford's play-action passes nicely.
The pick: Vikings +2.5*.
Erin Rynning: The Packers' offense will be much better than the unit that ranked 23rd in yards per game last season. They shined bright in 2015 during their first six games before injury, attrition and lack of execution troubled the franchise. With a healthy Jordy Nelson back into the fold, a slimmed and motivated Eddie Lacy, and a more stable offensive line, the Packers will finish in the top five of NFL offenses.
There are a couple of key injuries at the cornerback position for both clubs entering the Sunday night rivalry affair. Minnesota's Xavier Rhodes has been ruled out and Green Bay's Sam Shields has also been ruled out after not practicing this week.
Key players missing from either secondary on what is expected to be a fast track in the U.S. Bank Stadium opener? This game has a solid chance to go over the manageable total.
Pick: OVER 43 or less
[h=3]Prop bet[/h]253.5 Pass yds by Aaron Rodgers (O/U -110)
You can give Aaron Rodgers credit for quite a few things, and chief among them is his consistency. Rodgers has made 120 regular-season starts in his career, throwing for at least 254 yards in 72 games (60 percent). In 15 career starts against the Vikings, Aaron Rodgers has reached 254 yards nine times -- also 60 percent.
But are there recent concerns with Rodgers' production? With no Jordy Nelson last year, Rodgers posted a career-worst 6.7 yards per attempt average. His Week 1 performance against the Jaguars was even worse -- 5.9 yards per attempt for 199 yards. From 2007-13 (Adrian Peterson's pre-Bridgewater career), Vikings opponents averaged 36 pass attempts per game. At Rodgers' 6.7 yards per attempt average from last year, he hits 241 yards. But using his second-worst career average as a guide, he gets 270 -- well ahead of the target. Shaking the rust off is one thing, but 253.5 is just too low.
The play: Over
[h=3]Mike Clay[/h]Projected score: Green Bay 23, Minnesota 21
The pick: Minnesota and the over
cheersgif
