Week 3 NFL betting line moves
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 4 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots have gone from a favorite over theHouston Texans in Week 3's Thursday Night Football game to an underdog.
In the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's advance lines that it posted last week, the Patriots were 3.5-point home favorites, but now the Texans are 2.5-point road favorites after Jimmy Garoppolo was injured in New England's 31-24 win over Miami on Sunday. Garoppolo, starting in place of the suspended Tom Brady, led the Patriots to a Week 1 victory at Arizona and then threw three touchdown passes in amassing a 21-0 second-quarter lead over the Dolphins before getting injured on a hit by Kiko Alonso.
Rookie Jacoby Brissett, a third-round pick out of NC State, was thrust into action and helped the Patriots hold off a Miami rally. He's expected to be the starter on the short week.
The move from -3.5 to +2.5 is the biggest adjustment by far in the Week 3 lines at the Westgate. The CG Technology books here in Vegas opened at Houston -1.5 while offshore giant Pinnacle opened at pick 'em. By the end of Sunday night's Green Bay-Minnesota contest, all those books were at Houston -2.5 (-120), which means the books have taken early action on the Texans and we might be seeing this line move to 3.
Let's take a look at the other moves (the line in parentheses is as of end of Sunday night's game):
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Denver at Cincinnati (OFF): The advance line was Bengals -4, but after they lost to the Steelers and the Broncos beat the Colts, it was dropped to 3.5. That was universally the line here in Vegas and offshore on Sunday night when Don Best sent out the alert at 9:36 p.m. ET that Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton was questionable with an ankle injury and the game was taken off the betting boards. If Dalton is cleared to play, expect this line to come back around -3.5 or maybe -3 if he's limited. If he's out, AJ McCarron filled in admirably for Dalton last season and is regarded as one of the best backups in the league, so while this line will probably cross the key number of 3 and head toward pick 'em, I wouldn't expect a change of favorites.
Oakland at Tennessee (-1): The Raiders were actually a 1.5-point favorite on the advance line last week, but after they lost to the Falcons and the Titans upset the Lions, the Westgate reopened at pick 'em. The Wynn Las Vegas and William Hill books still went with Oakland -1, but while William Hill held the line with the Raiders favored, the Wynn got bet to pick 'em and the Westgate moved to Titans -1.
Arizona (-5) at Buffalo: The Cardinals were only -3.5 on the advance line, but after the Bills lost to the Jets on Thursday night and the Cardinals routed the Buccaneers, the Westgate reopened this at Arizona -6.5. However, the line only opened at -4 and -4.5 offshore and the Westgate later dropped the line to 5, while offshores mostly settled at 4.5.
Baltimore at Jacksonville (PK): The advance line was pick 'em, and even though the Ravens rallied to beat the Browns and the Jaguars were blown out 35-7 by the Chargers, the line stayed there at the Westgate. Wynn, Boyd Gaming and William Hill all opened with Baltimore -1 and CG Technology opted for Jacksonville -1, so we'll see if they all meet back at pick 'em. Offshores are mostly pick 'em, though the added juice (an average of -115) is on the Ravens side.
Cleveland at Miami (-7): The advance line was Miami -7 and re-posted the same after both teams lost Sunday. The Stratosphere went with Miami -6.5 but otherwise this looks solid at 7.
Washington at New York Giants (-4): The Giants were 4-point favorites on the advance line and even though they beat the Saints and the Redskins lost to the Cowboys, it was reopened at Giants -4. Offshores opened between -3.5 and -4.5 but then settled at 4.
Detroit at Green Bay (OFF): The advance line was Packers -7.5, but after the Lions lost to the Titans, it was bumped up to Packers -8. The game was then taken off the board when Green Bay played Minnesota on Sunday night. With the Packers losing, I'd expect this to be adjusted back to the previous line at Green Bay -7.5.
Minnesota at Carolina (OFF): The Panthers were 5.5-point favorites on the advance line and it was bumped up 6.5 after their 46-27 win over the 49ers. However, it was taken off the board after the Green Bay-Minnesota game kicked off. Now, with the Vikings upsetting the Packers, I would normally expect this line to dip back down to -6 at the highest; however, with Adrian Peterson getting injured in Minnesota's victory, oddsmakers will probably wait to see his status for next week.
San Francisco at Seattle (-10): This game was off the board last week because of Russell Wilson's uncertain status. The Westgate opened it at Seattle -11 on Sunday after the Seahawks lost to the Rams and the 49ers lost to the Panthers. With the Seahawks off to an unimpressive start and 0-2 ATS, money has showed for the 49ers and the line has been bet down to 10 at the Westgate. Offshores opened between 9.5 and 11, but most were at Seattle -9.5 by the end of Sunday night.
Los Angeles at Tampa Bay (-4): The advance line was Tampa -3.5, and after the Rams beat the Seahawks and the Bucs were blown out by the Cardinals, the line reopened at the same number at the Westgate and most other books. However, early money came in on Bucs and the line moved to -4 everywhere.
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Philadelphia: This was Pittsburgh -5.5 last week and reopened at the same number after its win over Cincinnati. Most books don't have a line with the Eagles playing Monday night, but William Hill and Boyd Gaming went with 5.5 just like the Westgate, while CG Technology opened at 5. We'll see how this line gets adjusted after watching how the Eagles fare against the Bears.
New York Jets at Kansas City (-3.5 EVEN): The Westgate had Kansas City -4 last week, and even though the Jets beat the Bills on Thursday night and the Chiefs lost to the Texans, they kept the line the same. Most other books opened with the Chiefs -3.5. By the end of Sunday night, the Westgate had been bet down to KC -3.5 (EVEN), meaning it costs -120 to take New York +3.5. Most offshore books as well as the Wynn had already dropped the line to 3.
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</article>San Diego at Indianapolis (-2.5): The Colts were -3 last week, and after both teams lost Sunday, the Westgate adjusted to Indy -3 (EVEN). Several other books also opened there, while Pinnacle went with 2.5. That's where the Westgate ended Sunday night while elsewhere there was a mix of -2.5/-3 and it wouldn't be surprising if the line wavered between the two numbers all week.
Chicago at Dallas (-4):This line was Cowboys -3.5 last week and was raised to -4 after they beat the Redskins. This game is off the board at most books with the Bears playing Monday night, though CG Technology went with Dallas -4.5. We'll see where this goes based on how the Bears play against the Eagles.
Monday: Atlanta at New Orleans (-3 -120): The Saints were -4 last week on the advance line, but after losing to the Giants and with the Falcons beating the Raiders, the Westgate reopened at New Orleans -3.5. Most offshores as well as William Hill and Boyd Gaming books in Vegas made the Saints -3 (-120) and that's where the market moved as of late Sunday.
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 4 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots have gone from a favorite over theHouston Texans in Week 3's Thursday Night Football game to an underdog.
In the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook's advance lines that it posted last week, the Patriots were 3.5-point home favorites, but now the Texans are 2.5-point road favorites after Jimmy Garoppolo was injured in New England's 31-24 win over Miami on Sunday. Garoppolo, starting in place of the suspended Tom Brady, led the Patriots to a Week 1 victory at Arizona and then threw three touchdown passes in amassing a 21-0 second-quarter lead over the Dolphins before getting injured on a hit by Kiko Alonso.
Rookie Jacoby Brissett, a third-round pick out of NC State, was thrust into action and helped the Patriots hold off a Miami rally. He's expected to be the starter on the short week.
The move from -3.5 to +2.5 is the biggest adjustment by far in the Week 3 lines at the Westgate. The CG Technology books here in Vegas opened at Houston -1.5 while offshore giant Pinnacle opened at pick 'em. By the end of Sunday night's Green Bay-Minnesota contest, all those books were at Houston -2.5 (-120), which means the books have taken early action on the Texans and we might be seeing this line move to 3.
Let's take a look at the other moves (the line in parentheses is as of end of Sunday night's game):
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href="https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/xbbe/pixel?d=CLOmFRC76ykYnbqZDQ&v=APEucNVTRn0yJM0hLHxGyTDcT7ap14904sBi6kzZKKv080twEovZABFpwDYevL77Kky11DKd-Tq-UIc9bKyJyebhKrWD7XQhFI9DfsFgMn7udzIK1LwSpqY"" target="_blank">https://googleads.g.doubleclick.net/xbbe/pixel?d=CLOmFRC76ykYnbqZDQ&v=APEucNVTRn0yJM0hLHxGyTDcT7ap14904sBi6kzZKKv080twEovZABFpwDYevL77Kky11DKd-Tq-UIc9bKyJyebhKrWD7XQhFI9DfsFgMn7udzIK1LwSpqY"</a> style="display:none"></iframe></article>San Diego at Indianapolis (-2.5): The Colts were -3 last week, and after both teams lost Sunday, the Westgate adjusted to Indy -3 (EVEN). Several other books also opened there, while Pinnacle went with 2.5. That's where the Westgate ended Sunday night while elsewhere there was a mix of -2.5/-3 and it wouldn't be surprising if the line wavered between the two numbers all week.
