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Thread: EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 3

  1. #1 EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 3 
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    From my friend East......I could not put it better than he did.

    I get so many questions on buying points regarding the NFL. I though this to be an advantageous time to once and for all set the record straight, and the facts will shock you. Buying points is a love/hate scenario for most bettors. The problem is, most don't understand how, when, or why to do it, or not to do it. It always looks better to have +7.5 than 7, or +10.5 vs 10, or visa-versa, -6.5 vs -7, or -9.5 vs -10. Those are death traps that will erode your bankroll. There are a few secrets, and the obvious pivots around the number 3 in the NFL.


    THE FIRST SECRET:


    You must have multiple outs (an out being a book where you can compare lines and get the most value). Remember for every 0.5 points, your winning percentage increases 1.1%! May not sound like a lot, but trust me, it is huge. You get a 1 point line advantage by having multiple outs on a given game, that is worth 2.2%! If you had a year of 2000 bets in all sports, and hit 52% vs 54% it looks like this for a 100.00 bettor:


    52% of 2000 bets at 100.00 ea. (or -110) = 1000 winners = 100,000.00, and 1000 losers @ -110 = -110,000 = (10,000.00)
    54% 0f 2000 bets at 100.00 ea (or -110)= 1080 winners = 108,000.00, and 920 losers @ -110 = -101,200 = +6,800.00


    HOPE THIS OPENS YOUR EYES! Not having 4 books costs you 16,800.00 a year, as a 100.00 bettor


    So your a small player? It costs you 8,400.00 a year as a 50.00 player


    So your a tiny player? It costs you 4,200.00 a year as a $25 player, probably more than your bankroll at that size!


    Ever wonder why your reloading your account so often?


    When you use proper bankroll management the losses are reduced, and the gains expanded, but that is a long chapter!


    MOST LOSE BECAUSE THEY HAVE ONE OUT, AND/OR MANAGE BANKROLL IMPROPERLY!


    Buying off of +3 PLAYING THE HOME DOG:


    ALWAYS BUY +0.5 POINT IN THE NFL IN THIS SITUATION!


    Since 1980 games at +3 in the NFL with home dog: 434


    Number of times it landed on exactly a push: 40


    Percentage of occurrences 40/434 = 9.2%


    So that turns 217-217 50% expected outcome to:


    257-177 .592


    If you did nothing and just went 217-217 50% on 100.00 wager you lose the vig 2177 times = -2,170.00


    If you buy to:



    -130 +2,690.00
    -135 +1805.00


    even all the way to -150 you would lose just -850.00 vs -2100.00 doing nothing!


    So the rule of thumb is always buy a +3 NFL line to +3.5 ALWAYS!



    Something to think about.
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  2. #2  
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    Interesting read. Thanks for taking the time to post!
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  3. #3  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    AGAINST THE SPREAD

    HOME 16-16

    DOGS 18-14

    OVER 16-16

    POINTS THAT MATTER 5 out of 32 games
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  4. #4  
    RX Senior 3pointdog's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE View Post
    AGAINST THE SPREAD

    HOME 16-16

    DOGS 18-14

    OVER 16-16

    POINTS THAT MATTER 5 out of 32 games
    amazing how it is always in the 15% - 18% range every year...! JUST PICK THE WINNER...!! its that simple...!! ha ha ....!
    Just Win....
    Placed 13th in 2012 LVH contest

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  5. #5  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Picks are out.....
    only one investment
    one 411
    two Fav
    3 Dogs

    best to all
    Ace
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  6. #6  
    RX SemiGod slapshot's Avatar
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    Good Luck today Ace

    got a 12 pack on the Bengals home opener in the Jungle

    GO LEAFS GO
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  7. #7  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapshot View Post
    Good Luck today Ace

    got a 12 pack on the Bengals home opener in the Jungle


    Hard game... But they have a better shoot than my tigers after they blow a two run ahead in the 9th and lost 7-4

    go Tigers
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  8. #8  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    AZ -4..................$2000.00 -105
    bal -1..................$600.00 -108
    Den +3................$800.00 +110


    Best to all

    Ace
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  9. #9  
    RX SemiGod slapshot's Avatar
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    good call Denver +3 was the correct play Bengals wouldn't have covered if they won today
    GO LEAFS GO
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  10. #10  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    2-1 -$700.00. With two games to go

    NYJ+3 .................$800 -115
    SD +3..................$600 -115
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  11. #11  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    2-3 on the week -$2115.00

    no more games on to week 4
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  12. #12  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    That's 2-3 -$2195.00.
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  13. #13  
    He Scores! JOH™'s Avatar
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    2-1 -$700.00. With two games to go
    2-1 -620

    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE View Post
    NYJ+3 .................$800 -115
    SD +3..................$600 -115
    that was 5 units on SD.... no?
    • Post your plays in the RX Tracker Forum for daily updates and accurate results. 300 posts required.
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  14. #14  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JOH™ View Post
    2-1 -620



    that was 5 units on SD.... no?
    you are right. -$2115 is the right number for this week
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