Respectfully on the other side of this one for a few reasons:
1. TCU defense is not very good. 400 yards on average given up against some lesser offensive foes (Iowa State, South Dakota State). Yes, it would be better for SMU with Matt Davis, but I believe they still move the ball here.
2. SMU usually plays them very tough. 5-2 last 7 ATS against them (I am not much of a trend player, but this is rivalry game and historically SMU has performed well in this rivalry).
Wouldn't be surprised to see another close one here - SMU lost by 5 last year as 37 point dog.
Only my opinion though. Pretty sure the line would go up as opposed to down here, but I am not very good at predicting line movement. So, if I were on TCU would get in now. I did not wait with my SMU play and grabbed 21.
HW