Vegas handicappers rank all 32 NFL teams: Arizona No. 1

[h=1]Vegas handicappers rank all 32 NFL teams: Arizona No. 1[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer

ESPN INSIDER

LAS VEGAS -- The Arizona Cardinals routed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40-7 on Sunday and have leaped to the top spot in the NFL Vegas Rankings.

Last week, the Cardinals sat behind co-leaders Pittsburgh and Green Bay. The Packers lost 17-14 at Minnesota on Sunday night as 2-point favorites. The Steelers beat the Bengals 24-16 as 3-point home favorites and earned a half-point increase from our panel, but the Cardinals' performance was so thoroughly dominating that they were upgraded by 1.5 points and enough to claim No. 1.


The New England Patriots are the hardest team to power rate. They're still the Super Bowl favorite at 5-1 and keep winning with backup quarterbacks while waiting for Tom Brady's suspension to end, but now they're faced with replacing Jimmy Garoppolo with rookie Jacoby Brissett. Our panel ended up downgrading the Patriots by an average of 2.5 points.


Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.


Movin' on up




The Cardinals' 1.5-point increase is matched by the Chargers and the Eagles. The Chargers blew out the Jaguars 38-14 on Sunday as 3-point home favorites while the Eagles beat the Bears 29-14 on Monday Night Football as 3-point road underdogs. The Jets, Vikings, Texans, Falcons, Titans and Rams also earned 1-point upgrades.


Dropping down


The biggest decrease after the Patriots' 2.5-point drop was the Bears, as they were downgraded 2 full points after their 29-14 loss on Monday night as 3-point home faves. Jay Cutler was injured in the loss, but they probably wouldn't be dropped too much more with Brian Hoyer as the backup (some would call it an upgrade). The Buccaneers and Jaguars both dropped 1.5 points after their blowout losses.


NFL Vegas Rankings
RANK TEAM SEPT. 13 SEPT. 20 SB ODDS
1 Arizona 26 27.5 7-1
2 Pittsburgh 26.5 27 7-1
3 Green Bay 26.5 25.5 7-1
4 Carolina 24.5 25 12-1
T-5 Denver 23.5 24 18-1
T-5 Minnesota 23 24 16-1
T-5 Seattle 25 24 10-1
8 New England 25.5 23 5-1
T-9 Houston 21.5 22.5 14-1
T-9 Cincinnati 24 22.5 25-1
T-9 New York (A) 21.5 22.5 40-1
12 Kansas City 22.5 22 30
13 Baltimore 22 21 25-1
T-14 New York (N) 21 20.5 18-1
T-14 Indianapolis 21.5 20.5 60-1
T-16 Oakland 21 20 30-1
T-16 Atlanta 19 20 80-1
T-16 San Diego 18.5 20 30-1
T-16 Philadelphia 18.5 20 40-1
T-20 Dallas 18.5 19 20-1
T-20 Miami 19.5 19 100-1
T-22 Tampa Bay 20 18.5 60-1
T-22 Buffalo 19.5 18.5 100-1
T-24 Detroit 19 18 80-1
T-24 New Orleans 18 18 100-1
T-26 Jacksonville 19 17.5 100-1
T-26 Los Angeles 16.5 17.5 100-1
T-28 Tennessee 16 17 80-1
T-28 Washington 17.5 17 100-1
T-28 San Francisco 17 17 200-1
31 Chicago 18 16 150-1
32 Cleveland 13 12 1000-1
Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Sept. 20
Week 2 value plays


Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.


Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.


Our value plays are 5-1 ATS so far this season. After going 3-0 ATS in Week 1, they went 2-1 ATS in Week 2 as the Patriots covered as 6.5-point home favorites and the Eagles won outright as 3-point underdogs on Monday night, while the loss was the 49ers +13.5 in a back-and-forth fourth quarter.


(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 2 games over the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.






Houston Texans at New England Patriots


Vegas consensus line: Houston -2.5
Vegas Ranks: New England -0.5 (23-22.5)


Even after downgrading the Patriots for the expectation that Jacoby Brissett is going to start Thursday night's game, our panel still has the Patriots as half a point better than the Texans. With home-field advantage, we have New England favored by a field goal, yet oddsmakers have flipped the script and made Houston -2.5.


The play: Patriots +2.5.






Arizona Cardinals at Buffalo Bills


Vegas consensus line: Arizona -4.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -9 (27.5-18.5)


The Cardinals are our No. 1 team and rated 9 points better than the Bills. Even with Buffalo's home-field advantage, it looks like this line shouldn't be lower than a full touchdown. The 4.5-point spread looks a little cheap.


The play: Cardinals -4.5.






Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers


Vegas consensus line: Carolina -7
Vegas Ranks: Carolina -1 (25-24)

Our panel's only loss so far was going against the Panthers last week, but the numbers say to do it again. We have the Panthers as just 1 point better than the Vikings on a neutral field and with home-field advantage, we would stop the line at Carolina -3, maybe crossing the key number but nowhere near a full touchdown.
The play: Vikings +7.

[h=3]Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints[/h]Vegas consensus line: New Orleans -3
Vegas Ranks: Atlanta -2 (20-18)
Our panel has the Falcons rated as 2 points better than the Saints. Applying New Orleans' home-field advantage (which ain't what it used to be) should only put this game around pick 'em. The Falcons look like value getting a full field goal.
The play: Falcons +3.

Thanks Hache.

We don't have to wait long, just a couple more days, 'til Thursday, to see if HOUSTON can rise from a #9 spot on that list and Carolina averaging 40+ points at home for a while now, i appreciate that Minnesota does have a competent defense but The play: Vikings +7sure seems like there surely would have been a less risky play somewhere on the board, to insert in the place of this one......AP gone from running back and serious questions of how well MN O-Line can keep Panthers Defense off of Bradford.....makes for IMO at least a downright scary-ass play there alot like freekin KC +3 at HOU which I stupidly got enticed by.

Spent 2 days kicking myself now for that choice now as result I can barely raise my leg and my ass is red inflamed and sore.

Deservedly so. I am totally not jockeying for Sympathy here. Just Saying.

.

ML Dog said:

Thanks Hache.

We don't have to wait long, just a couple more days, 'til Thursday, to see if HOUSTON can rise from a #9 spot on that list and Carolina averaging 40+ points at home for a while now, i appreciate that Minnesota does have a competent defense but The play: Vikings +7sure seems like there surely would have been a less risky play somewhere on the board, to insert in the place of this one......AP gone from running back and serious questions of how well MN O-Line can keep Panthers Defense off of Bradford.....makes for IMO at least a downright scary-ass play there alot like freekin KC +3 at HOU which I stupidly got enticed by.

Spent 2 days kicking myself now for that choice now as result I can barely raise my leg and my ass is red inflamed and sore.

Deservedly so. I am totally not jockeying for Sympathy here. Just Saying.

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Same here, and KC was one of my super contest picks...go figure, I'm from Houston. I had the game lined at KC-1, so getting +3, thought was good. I honestly think it was still the correct call. I think we would have/should have pushed at worst if played again.

Only TD Houston scored was a lucky grab by Fuller at the 2 yard line, which set up the only TD in the game. Besides that, nothing but FGs. Reid was also a bit too conservative down towards the end. Kicking that FG to go back down by 7, instead of going for it to get a TD. That was the closest they had gotten in the red zone, so he should have taken the shot there IMO.

all of those +2.5 on the Pats are gone, as that game got steamed last night..

PK's 1's now

Betallsports said:

all of those +2.5 on the Pats are gone, as that game got steamed last night..

PK's 1's now

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I have the game at Pats-6. Its Pats or no play for me as of right now.
For SC, one of my rules is to never play the Thursday game, no matter what.

wizardofodd said:

I have the game at Pats-6. Its Pats or no play for me as of right now.
For SC, one of my rules is to never play the Thursday game, no matter what.

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I have that same rule ... cam close last week because I loved the Jets ...would have given me a 3-2 week instead of my 2-3 week.
But I agree, plus IMO I think you leave a lot of info off the table when putting in all your picks by Thursday

Betallsports said:

I have that same rule ... cam close last week because I loved the Jets ...would have given me a 3-2 week instead of my 2-3 week.
But I agree, plus IMO I think you leave a lot of info off the table when putting in all your picks by Thursday

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Yup. Same thing, week 1, loved Denver Thurs night as I had them at -1. But to turn in all plays Thurs is a big disadvantage IMO as the lines on SC dont move regardless of injuries that might occur. GL to you this week!

wizardofodd said:

Same here, and KC was one of my super contest picks...go figure, I'm from Houston. I had the game lined at KC-1, so getting +3, thought was good. I honestly think it was still the correct call. I think we would have/should have pushed at worst if played again.

Only TD Houston scored was a lucky grab by Fuller at the 2 yard line, which set up the only TD in the game. Besides that, nothing but FGs. Reid was also a bit too conservative down towards the end. Kicking that FG to go back down by 7, instead of going for it to get a TD. That was the closest they had gotten in the red zone, so he should have taken the shot there IMO.

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I was jumping between Houston hosting KC to watching Cincy at Pittsburgh so maybe I didn't see enough of that KC+3 to make this a really accurate statement but it just felt to me like one of those games where (and we all know these well) a Defense (HOU) is dominating an Offense (KC) enough to where, from some fairly early point in the game, you're like:

"Oh Lord just let me have the PUSH here." cuz you have that feeling from years of football watched that there is very little Hope of covering.

With what ya got versus....a Defense thats just kinda "owning" the flow of the game.

It sucked nearly as bad for me as it did for a Houston resident, being on KC+3 in that spot, cuz I totally suspected that KC O-Line was not gonna be up to the task vs HOU who had covered for me the week prior vs. BEARS plus Jamal Charles RB for KC was "questionable" then "doubtful" to go...

.....at the end I pulled the trigger due to lack of Faith in Texans Offense and specifically Osweiller but its just one of those plays I never ever should have made and especially not at a SOLID +3 so too much tempting that PUSH and I might have successfully stayed off of it....

.....had KC not gotten steamed down to +1 and even in some spots the game being a PICK so in the end my brain went FULL-ON FEZZIK and I tried to be all Stale-Line Slick about the deal but naw man....not at a Solid 3 and not versus a Defense that I feared. To the degree that I did.

Your Texans could be my Achilles Heel this season. I feel like your Defense can keep you guys in any game and if the Offense just gets more cohesive, Brock manages to bring his game up, that you guys can be a serious contender this season and do well ATS. You're already 2-0 ATS but Linesman sharp with Texans thus far IMO, luring bettors in...to ATS plays against them obviously The Public or some whales whoever moved that KC line a full 3 points to PK didn't yet know who The Texans might be but my sense is that The Linesmaker definitely knows.

Hilariously enough though....The Lord did come through, granted me that PUSH I'd begged him for...

KC 9 HOU 19, Houston Texans Kickoff with 02:56 left in gameN.Novak kicks 70 yards from HOU 35 to KC -5. T.Hill for 105 yards, TOUCHDOWN!!!!




NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on KC, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 22.






We'd been granted a Miraculous Reprieve, for one brief shining moment.

OMG, dude, i was like, hell yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, the flag was thrown a little late, or they showed it on TV a little late and I fell to the ground. LOL.

But yes, I forgot that play even happened

wizardofodd said:

I have the game at Pats-6. Its Pats or no play for me as of right now.
For SC, one of my rules is to never play the Thursday game, no matter what.

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Every Single "Sharp" over there to my knowledge anyways has avoided using Thursday Game. That was the first advice out of CH Baller's collective mouth IIRC when asked how they'd done so well....."We never played the Thursday Game".

wizardofodd said:

OMG, dude, i was like, hell yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa, the flag was thrown a little late, or they showed it on TV a little late and I fell to the ground. LOL.

But yes, I forgot that play even happened

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Sorry to remind you.

I was over here celebrating thanking Jesus like a robust Pentecostal woman all hopped up on Denny's Coffee then the TV pans to The Ref.

Then the voice of Jesus, in my head, says: "Don't ask me for help on covering the spread of football games" so...

....that nullified TD might have been largely My Fault.