Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 3 of the NFL
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Another day, another dollar. Last week's system matches were 2-1 against the spread (ATS), nudging the record to 4-2 ATS on the season. So, let's break down another historically profitable betting system, and identify value in three upcoming games.
Contrarian betting in the NFL encompasses several strategies that can be used to extract value each week. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>At Sports Insights, betting against the public is a cornerstone philosophy. We also recommend three ways to capitalize on market overreactions: taking teams on losing streaks, fading winning streaks and backing the league's least popular teams.
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" might be surprised to learn that sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than when following a loss, and there is never a more favorable time to bet against a team than after a victory.
Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to account for public perception and exploit overreactions from weekend warriors. In this highly reactionary "hot take" culture, it is advantageous to fly in the face of mainstream media narratives. That's particularly true when national writers and broadcasters pour on the hyperbole when they discuss a team who pulled off an improbable upset.
The contrarian bettor recognizes that casual bettors make extreme decisions based on small sample sizes. These could be the same people who lined up to see "Batman & Robin" or "Jaws 2: The Revenge." The hard truth? Sequels almost never live up to the hype.
How to capitalize on public perception
One of the most basic ways to capitalize on recent results is looking at the score of the previous game. Since 2003, teams coming off a loss covered the spread at a 50.6 percent rate, while teams coming off a win have covered 49.4 percent of the time. While you shouldn't bet every team after a loss, these records reveal a slight edge.
Teams are vastly undervalued after a blowout loss, but what happens after an upset victory? Are those teams overvalued? My hypothesis was teams tend to come out flat after an upset victory, particularly if it is an emotional home game.
My research found that teams who won their previous game despite closing as an underdog have gone just 419-473 ATS (47.0 percent) in the following game. By betting against, or fading, those teams, bettors would have produced a +3.4 percent return on investment (ROI). When they won their previous game as a home underdog, that ROI skyrockets to 13.2 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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</tbody></aside>Why does this work?
Bettors tend to overvalue teams after a win. That's especially true when they pull off an unlikely upset. Casual bettors alter their internal power rankings. That tendency is magnified in early season games since bettors are still trying to evaluate each team.
Home field advantage has been historically overvalued, but most sportsbooks adjust their spread by 2.5-points on average. It's easier to pull off an upset victory at home, and those games are often physically and emotionally draining -- particularly when that team has to travel for the following game.
This system personifies our sell-high philosophy, since it's an excellent opportunity to fade "bad" teams at their highest point. Week 1 provided the perfect example, with the San Francisco 49ers moving from +13.5 to +12 the morning after their surprising home win over the Rams on Monday Night Football. San Francisco ultimately lost to Carolina by 19-points on the road in Week 2.
Teams who closed as underdogs in their previous game aren't necessarily "bad," but they certainly aren't expected to win straight up. Casual bettors overvalue teams coming off an upset win, and oddsmakers shade their lines to benefit from this inclination.
I could speculate about whether teams come out flat after an upset victory, and whether there's a "let down" factor. The truth is, it doesn't really matter. Squares are more prone to taking teams after an upset victory, and the resulting shaded lines create value for contrarian bettors.
This week there are three road teams coming off upset victories on their home turf. Past results indicate these teams are due for a letdown, so we'll be backing their opponent in Week 3.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday evening.
Week 3 system matches
New England Patriots (+1) vs. Houston Texans
This could be one of the most complicated games to accurately handicap. Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo helped the Patriots jump out to a commanding 21-0 lead before suffering a right shoulder injury. He was replaced by rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who finished the game 6-of-9 for 92 yards.
With Brissett expected to start, the Patriots opened as a 2.5-point underdogs. That line was particularly interesting since the Patriots were initially installed as 3.5-point favorites on Friday's lookahead line at the Westgate Superbook. Based on my conversations with several bookmakers, this seemed like an overreaction since the downgrade from Garoppolo to Brissett is only worth 1-2 points.
On Tuesday morning, reports surfaced that the Patriots still believe there's a chance Garoppolo can start this week. This announcement caused the Patriots to move from +2.5 to +1.
The Patriots have been one of the most public teams over the past 12 seasons, but they've offered tremendous value in their few contrarian opportunities. Since 2003, New England has gone 23-9 ATS as an underdog and 22-7 ATS when they're not receiving a majority of public bets. At the time of publication, the Patriots were receiving just 41 percent of spread bets.
Many bettors will have doubts about Brissett, but there were plenty of question marks about Garoppolo before the season. Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all-time, and he'll cater his game plan to utilize whichever quarterback is available.
Houston is coming off an upset win over Kansas City, which means this is the perfect opportunity to sell high. In this rare situation, I love New England as a home underdog.
The pick: New England +1
Carolina Panthers (-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off an impressive victory against the Packers on Sunday night, and teams are usually overvalued after these nationally televised games. That makes this an excellent opportunity to sell high on Minnesota.
Carolina opened as 6.5-point favorites and have only received 38 percent of early spread bets. Despite that limited public support, they've moved from -6.5 to -7 at the Westgate. That reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money loves the home favorite.
It's uncommon to see the public backing an underdog, especially such a large underdog. Since 2003, favorites of at least 5-points have gone 17-11 ATS when receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets. Once again, that points towards value on the Panthers.
With Adrian Peterson out indefinitely, and Sam Bradford still getting acclimated to a new offense, I think that Carolina wins this game in a rout.
The pick: Carolina -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams (closed +5.5) defeated the Seahawks in Week 2's biggest upset. This was the first game played in Los Angeles since 2003, and there were many questions about the officiating. That's particularly interesting since Jerome Berger (71-46 ATS) has been the biggest homer ref in our database.
Following such an emotional victory, the Rams are due for a letdown this week -- especially after playing a physical game against the Seahawks. Since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, teams have gone just 34-58 ATS (37 percent) the week after playing Seattle.
In addition to selling high on the Rams, this is a great opportunity to buy low on the Bucs. My research found that teams coming off a loss of 28+ points have gone 142-108 ATS (56.8 percent) in their following game. That points towards value on Tampa Bay after their blowout loss last week.
Although the Rams defense has looked fantastic, their offense is completely inept. I'm anticipating a bounce back game for Jameis Winston, who threw four interceptions in last week's loss. Sharp money hasn't taken a side yet, but I like the home favorite in this matchup.
The pick: Tampa Bay -5
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
Regarding the timing of these plays, it's best to take favorites early and underdogs late, but that's not a hard-and-fast rule.
I will always grade my plays based on the current line at the Westgate, but it's important to shop for the best line before placing a wager -- especially around key numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10.
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Another day, another dollar. Last week's system matches were 2-1 against the spread (ATS), nudging the record to 4-2 ATS on the season. So, let's break down another historically profitable betting system, and identify value in three upcoming games.
Contrarian betting in the NFL encompasses several strategies that can be used to extract value each week. <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>At Sports Insights, betting against the public is a cornerstone philosophy. We also recommend three ways to capitalize on market overreactions: taking teams on losing streaks, fading winning streaks and backing the league's least popular teams.
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" might be surprised to learn that sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than when following a loss, and there is never a more favorable time to bet against a team than after a victory.
Sportsbooks shade their opening lines to account for public perception and exploit overreactions from weekend warriors. In this highly reactionary "hot take" culture, it is advantageous to fly in the face of mainstream media narratives. That's particularly true when national writers and broadcasters pour on the hyperbole when they discuss a team who pulled off an improbable upset.
The contrarian bettor recognizes that casual bettors make extreme decisions based on small sample sizes. These could be the same people who lined up to see "Batman & Robin" or "Jaws 2: The Revenge." The hard truth? Sequels almost never live up to the hype.
How to capitalize on public perception
One of the most basic ways to capitalize on recent results is looking at the score of the previous game. Since 2003, teams coming off a loss covered the spread at a 50.6 percent rate, while teams coming off a win have covered 49.4 percent of the time. While you shouldn't bet every team after a loss, these records reveal a slight edge.
Teams are vastly undervalued after a blowout loss, but what happens after an upset victory? Are those teams overvalued? My hypothesis was teams tend to come out flat after an upset victory, particularly if it is an emotional home game.
My research found that teams who won their previous game despite closing as an underdog have gone just 419-473 ATS (47.0 percent) in the following game. By betting against, or fading, those teams, bettors would have produced a +3.4 percent return on investment (ROI). When they won their previous game as a home underdog, that ROI skyrockets to 13.2 percent.
Week 3 betting system
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD |
|---|---|
| Opponent Won Previous Game | 807-771 (51.1 percent) |
| Opponent Won Previous Game as Underdog | 473-419 (53.0 percent) |
| Opponent Won previous Game as Home Underdog | 205-149 (57.9 percent) |
| Home Team, Opponent Won Pvs. Game as Home Underdog | 151-106 (58.8 percent) |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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Bettors tend to overvalue teams after a win. That's especially true when they pull off an unlikely upset. Casual bettors alter their internal power rankings. That tendency is magnified in early season games since bettors are still trying to evaluate each team.
Home field advantage has been historically overvalued, but most sportsbooks adjust their spread by 2.5-points on average. It's easier to pull off an upset victory at home, and those games are often physically and emotionally draining -- particularly when that team has to travel for the following game.
This system personifies our sell-high philosophy, since it's an excellent opportunity to fade "bad" teams at their highest point. Week 1 provided the perfect example, with the San Francisco 49ers moving from +13.5 to +12 the morning after their surprising home win over the Rams on Monday Night Football. San Francisco ultimately lost to Carolina by 19-points on the road in Week 2.
Teams who closed as underdogs in their previous game aren't necessarily "bad," but they certainly aren't expected to win straight up. Casual bettors overvalue teams coming off an upset win, and oddsmakers shade their lines to benefit from this inclination.
I could speculate about whether teams come out flat after an upset victory, and whether there's a "let down" factor. The truth is, it doesn't really matter. Squares are more prone to taking teams after an upset victory, and the resulting shaded lines create value for contrarian bettors.
This week there are three road teams coming off upset victories on their home turf. Past results indicate these teams are due for a letdown, so we'll be backing their opponent in Week 3.
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday evening.
Week 3 system matches
New England Patriots (+1) vs. Houston Texans
This could be one of the most complicated games to accurately handicap. Last week, Jimmy Garoppolo helped the Patriots jump out to a commanding 21-0 lead before suffering a right shoulder injury. He was replaced by rookie quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who finished the game 6-of-9 for 92 yards.
With Brissett expected to start, the Patriots opened as a 2.5-point underdogs. That line was particularly interesting since the Patriots were initially installed as 3.5-point favorites on Friday's lookahead line at the Westgate Superbook. Based on my conversations with several bookmakers, this seemed like an overreaction since the downgrade from Garoppolo to Brissett is only worth 1-2 points.
On Tuesday morning, reports surfaced that the Patriots still believe there's a chance Garoppolo can start this week. This announcement caused the Patriots to move from +2.5 to +1.
The Patriots have been one of the most public teams over the past 12 seasons, but they've offered tremendous value in their few contrarian opportunities. Since 2003, New England has gone 23-9 ATS as an underdog and 22-7 ATS when they're not receiving a majority of public bets. At the time of publication, the Patriots were receiving just 41 percent of spread bets.
Many bettors will have doubts about Brissett, but there were plenty of question marks about Garoppolo before the season. Bill Belichick is one of the greatest coaches of all-time, and he'll cater his game plan to utilize whichever quarterback is available.
Houston is coming off an upset win over Kansas City, which means this is the perfect opportunity to sell high. In this rare situation, I love New England as a home underdog.
The pick: New England +1
Carolina Panthers (-7) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are coming off an impressive victory against the Packers on Sunday night, and teams are usually overvalued after these nationally televised games. That makes this an excellent opportunity to sell high on Minnesota.
Carolina opened as 6.5-point favorites and have only received 38 percent of early spread bets. Despite that limited public support, they've moved from -6.5 to -7 at the Westgate. That reverse line movement indicates that early sharp money loves the home favorite.
It's uncommon to see the public backing an underdog, especially such a large underdog. Since 2003, favorites of at least 5-points have gone 17-11 ATS when receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets. Once again, that points towards value on the Panthers.
With Adrian Peterson out indefinitely, and Sam Bradford still getting acclimated to a new offense, I think that Carolina wins this game in a rout.
The pick: Carolina -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5) vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams (closed +5.5) defeated the Seahawks in Week 2's biggest upset. This was the first game played in Los Angeles since 2003, and there were many questions about the officiating. That's particularly interesting since Jerome Berger (71-46 ATS) has been the biggest homer ref in our database.
Following such an emotional victory, the Rams are due for a letdown this week -- especially after playing a physical game against the Seahawks. Since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, teams have gone just 34-58 ATS (37 percent) the week after playing Seattle.
In addition to selling high on the Rams, this is a great opportunity to buy low on the Bucs. My research found that teams coming off a loss of 28+ points have gone 142-108 ATS (56.8 percent) in their following game. That points towards value on Tampa Bay after their blowout loss last week.
Although the Rams defense has looked fantastic, their offense is completely inept. I'm anticipating a bounce back game for Jameis Winston, who threw four interceptions in last week's loss. Sharp money hasn't taken a side yet, but I like the home favorite in this matchup.
The pick: Tampa Bay -5
These lines are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
Regarding the timing of these plays, it's best to take favorites early and underdogs late, but that's not a hard-and-fast rule.
I will always grade my plays based on the current line at the Westgate, but it's important to shop for the best line before placing a wager -- especially around key numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10.
