[h=1]How to bet Houston-New England[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Houston-New England matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Houston Texans at New England Patriots[/h]Spread: Opened New England -3.5; now Houston -1
Total: Opened 41; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Houston
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game at the current line of Houston -1 (the 58 percent on Houston at ESPN Insider's PickCenter is with Pinnacle's line of pick 'em). Those siding with the Texans obviously like that the Patriots might be starting their third-string QB while those on the Patriots like that, well, they're the Patriots.
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Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game last week at the Westgate was New England -3.5 withJimmy Garoppolo expected to be the starter, but after he was knocked out of Sunday's game, the line was reopened at Houston -2.5 with rookie Jacoby Brissett expected to start. There have been some reports/rumors that Garoppolo might be able to play, so this line was adjusted to Houston -1. There doesn't appear to be any "sharp" side with so much uncertainty, though quick-moving sharps probably got the best numbers on the sides they like.
Dave Tuley's take: I was on the Patriots in Week 1 as road underdogs at Arizona when I believed the line was overadjusted, so it's definitely tempting to take them as home underdogs, but the Houston pass rush does concern me in Brissett's first start. The NFL Vegas Rankings that we compile at ESPN Chalk made New England +2.5 a value play when it was posted on Tuesday. I still lean that way, but not enough to make it a best bet.
I also like the under as I don't expect the Patriots' offense to be as wide open as usual, plus I'm looking for the New England defense to step up in support of a backup (or injured) QB playing; however, a lot of the value has been sucked out of the under as oddsmakers obviously feel the same way and have set the total low.
The pick: Patriots +1 (lean to under 40.5).
Erin Rynning: No Tom Brady? No problem for the Patriots with their crisp 2-0 start. However, the question now lingers as Garoppolo is most likely to miss this game and turn over the reins to the rookie Brissett. Regardless of who is under center, anticipate a conservative game plan from the Patriots on a short week. Houston's rejuvenated passing game with newly inked Brock Osweilercould give the Patriots' defense problems in this matchup. This will serve as an extremely tricky game to handicap; the questions surrounding the firepower of the Patriots' offense make this a pass for me.
Pick: pass
Rufus Peabody: Garoppolo's injury adds a layer of uncertainty to this matchup of 2-0 teams. While the Patriots' offense should be substantially below average with Brissett under center, my model still rates them marginally better than Houston's offense, which graded out at 23rd and 30th in their first two games. In general, I've found that the market tends to overreact to injuries at skill positions. In this case, however, with the market currently at Houston -1, I don't see enough value to make this a play. If forced to choose, I would side with the Patriots, who my model pegs as a 1.8-point favorite.
Pick: lean Patriots
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Houston-New England matchup on Thursday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Thursday morning.
Total: Opened 41; now 40
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Houston
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game at the current line of Houston -1 (the 58 percent on Houston at ESPN Insider's PickCenter is with Pinnacle's line of pick 'em). Those siding with the Texans obviously like that the Patriots might be starting their third-string QB while those on the Patriots like that, well, they're the Patriots.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Wiseguys' view: The advance line on this game last week at the Westgate was New England -3.5 withJimmy Garoppolo expected to be the starter, but after he was knocked out of Sunday's game, the line was reopened at Houston -2.5 with rookie Jacoby Brissett expected to start. There have been some reports/rumors that Garoppolo might be able to play, so this line was adjusted to Houston -1. There doesn't appear to be any "sharp" side with so much uncertainty, though quick-moving sharps probably got the best numbers on the sides they like.
Dave Tuley's take: I was on the Patriots in Week 1 as road underdogs at Arizona when I believed the line was overadjusted, so it's definitely tempting to take them as home underdogs, but the Houston pass rush does concern me in Brissett's first start. The NFL Vegas Rankings that we compile at ESPN Chalk made New England +2.5 a value play when it was posted on Tuesday. I still lean that way, but not enough to make it a best bet.
I also like the under as I don't expect the Patriots' offense to be as wide open as usual, plus I'm looking for the New England defense to step up in support of a backup (or injured) QB playing; however, a lot of the value has been sucked out of the under as oddsmakers obviously feel the same way and have set the total low.
The pick: Patriots +1 (lean to under 40.5).
Erin Rynning: No Tom Brady? No problem for the Patriots with their crisp 2-0 start. However, the question now lingers as Garoppolo is most likely to miss this game and turn over the reins to the rookie Brissett. Regardless of who is under center, anticipate a conservative game plan from the Patriots on a short week. Houston's rejuvenated passing game with newly inked Brock Osweilercould give the Patriots' defense problems in this matchup. This will serve as an extremely tricky game to handicap; the questions surrounding the firepower of the Patriots' offense make this a pass for me.
Pick: pass
Rufus Peabody: Garoppolo's injury adds a layer of uncertainty to this matchup of 2-0 teams. While the Patriots' offense should be substantially below average with Brissett under center, my model still rates them marginally better than Houston's offense, which graded out at 23rd and 30th in their first two games. In general, I've found that the market tends to overreact to injuries at skill positions. In this case, however, with the market currently at Houston -1, I don't see enough value to make this a play. If forced to choose, I would side with the Patriots, who my model pegs as a 1.8-point favorite.
Pick: lean Patriots
