[h=1]How to bet Chicago-Dallas[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Chicago-Dallas matchup on Sunday night.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 3 games[/h]
[h=3]Matchup: Chicago Bears-Dallas Cowboys[/h]Spread: Opened Dallas -4; now Dallas -7
Total: Opened 45.5; now 44
Pickcenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Dallas
Public perception: The betting on this game has been more about the number than any love or hate of the two teams. The ESPN Pickcenter has the public on the Cowboys, but that's with Pinnacle's line of Dallas -6.5. It's much more split at 7 and the Bears were getting more love when the line was as high as 7.5 in the middle of the week.
Wiseguys' view: This game actually opened Dallas -4 at the Westgate on Sunday afternoon, but that was before the Bears lost to the Eagles on Monday Night Football and Jay Cutler injured his thumb. Sharps grabbed the inflated line of Chicago +7.5 and have continued to take them at +7.
Dave Tuley's take: I understand why this line was adjusted so high; in addition to Brian Hoyer starting in place of Cutler, the Bears were devastated by injuries on MNF. However, Hoyer is a serviceable QB and should get the ball toAlshon Jeffery like he used to with DeAndre Hopkins in Houston (this is contingent on Jeffery playing, as he was limited in practice this week).
But the main reason for backing the Bears is that the Cowboys are a middle-of-the-road team (No. 16 in total offense, No. 17 on defense) and not consistent enough to automatically take advantage of the Bears' problems. Dallas shouldn't be laying a full touchdown. I'm not as confident of an outright upset as I usually am when taking an underdog, but this looks more like a four-point game. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings at ESPN Chalk ended up with the Cowboys only three points better than the Bears, even after the Cutler injury.
Even with Dallas' home-field advantage (which isn't very strong, as the team is 8-24 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett), this line should be more like four or five points.
The pick: Chicago +7 (-120)*
[h=3]Rufus Peabody[/h]The loss of Cutler really hurts the Bears here, dropping from the 20th-ranked team going into Week 2 to 31st this week. Luckily for Chicago, they face a Cowboys team that ranks 29th in the Massey-Peabody ratings this week, and starts a quarterback I project to be even worse than Hoyer.
Yes, Dak Prescott has looked "OK" to my untrained eyes, but he's a rookie fourth-rounder with two career starts under his belt. If I've learned one thing from my years as a sports bettor, it's that the market loves to overreact to small samples and ignore base rates. Dallas should win, but my model sees the game a lot tighter than the 7-point spread implies.
The pick: Chicago +7
Massey-Peabody line: Chicago +3.1
[h=3]Erin Rynning[/h]Cutler's absence for the Bears must be taken as a positive. The organization made a glaring mistake by not parting ways with the enigmatic signal-caller, preventing the team from moving forward. Expect the offense and team to rally around Hoyer with a strong showing under the Sunday night lights.
Yes, the Bears' defense is banged up entering this contest, however, this Dallas franchise is just 3-13 in their past 16 games (including eight straight home losses) and is being asked to win by over a touchdown. The accolades for Prescott are fine, but the running game has yet to take off while the defense remains below average.
The pick: Chicago +7
[h=3]Prop Bet[/h]20.5 completions by Bears QBs (O/U -110)
It's the Brian Hoyer show in Dallas on Sunday night. The last we saw of Hoyer was maybe his worst career game -- four interceptions and a lost fumble in a 30-0 loss at home to the Chiefs in an AFC wild-card game last season. Hoyer's Texans were playing from behind after 12 seconds thanks to a Knile Daviskickoff return touchdown, and yet Hoyer managed 15 completions for 135 yards.
That was as bad of a game as a quarterback could play against an electric Chiefs defense, one that ended his Texans season and career. So how much of the initial reaction to this over/under is recency bias? Hoyer's 28 career starts, including the playoffs, break down 16-12 in favor of the under. In six of his 12 "overs," he needed to drop back to pass at least 40 times. That seems like it would be an overly-aggressive approach from offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains with a backup quarterback -- and Hoyer generally produces via volume over efficiency.
The play: Under
[h=3]Mike Clay[/h]Chicago just lost at home by 15 points to a rookie quarterback, but I expect them to be a bit more competitive in Dallas this week. The Bears' defense is definitely not at full strength, but Prescott has been no better than solid in Tony Romo's place and Elliott has looked ordinary. Hoyer is as competent a backup quarterback as you'll find and he will be able to keep this one competitive by getting the ball to Jeffery (questionable), Kevin White, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller.
Prediction: Cowboys win 26-22
The Pick: Chicago +7 and over 44
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Chicago-Dallas matchup on Sunday night.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Friday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 3 games[/h]
Total: Opened 45.5; now 44
Pickcenter public consensus pick: 67 percent Dallas
Public perception: The betting on this game has been more about the number than any love or hate of the two teams. The ESPN Pickcenter has the public on the Cowboys, but that's with Pinnacle's line of Dallas -6.5. It's much more split at 7 and the Bears were getting more love when the line was as high as 7.5 in the middle of the week.
Wiseguys' view: This game actually opened Dallas -4 at the Westgate on Sunday afternoon, but that was before the Bears lost to the Eagles on Monday Night Football and Jay Cutler injured his thumb. Sharps grabbed the inflated line of Chicago +7.5 and have continued to take them at +7.
Dave Tuley's take: I understand why this line was adjusted so high; in addition to Brian Hoyer starting in place of Cutler, the Bears were devastated by injuries on MNF. However, Hoyer is a serviceable QB and should get the ball toAlshon Jeffery like he used to with DeAndre Hopkins in Houston (this is contingent on Jeffery playing, as he was limited in practice this week).
But the main reason for backing the Bears is that the Cowboys are a middle-of-the-road team (No. 16 in total offense, No. 17 on defense) and not consistent enough to automatically take advantage of the Bears' problems. Dallas shouldn't be laying a full touchdown. I'm not as confident of an outright upset as I usually am when taking an underdog, but this looks more like a four-point game. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings at ESPN Chalk ended up with the Cowboys only three points better than the Bears, even after the Cutler injury.
Even with Dallas' home-field advantage (which isn't very strong, as the team is 8-24 ATS as a home favorite under Jason Garrett), this line should be more like four or five points.
The pick: Chicago +7 (-120)*
[h=3]Rufus Peabody[/h]The loss of Cutler really hurts the Bears here, dropping from the 20th-ranked team going into Week 2 to 31st this week. Luckily for Chicago, they face a Cowboys team that ranks 29th in the Massey-Peabody ratings this week, and starts a quarterback I project to be even worse than Hoyer.
Yes, Dak Prescott has looked "OK" to my untrained eyes, but he's a rookie fourth-rounder with two career starts under his belt. If I've learned one thing from my years as a sports bettor, it's that the market loves to overreact to small samples and ignore base rates. Dallas should win, but my model sees the game a lot tighter than the 7-point spread implies.
The pick: Chicago +7
Massey-Peabody line: Chicago +3.1
[h=3]Erin Rynning[/h]Cutler's absence for the Bears must be taken as a positive. The organization made a glaring mistake by not parting ways with the enigmatic signal-caller, preventing the team from moving forward. Expect the offense and team to rally around Hoyer with a strong showing under the Sunday night lights.
Yes, the Bears' defense is banged up entering this contest, however, this Dallas franchise is just 3-13 in their past 16 games (including eight straight home losses) and is being asked to win by over a touchdown. The accolades for Prescott are fine, but the running game has yet to take off while the defense remains below average.
The pick: Chicago +7
[h=3]Prop Bet[/h]20.5 completions by Bears QBs (O/U -110)
It's the Brian Hoyer show in Dallas on Sunday night. The last we saw of Hoyer was maybe his worst career game -- four interceptions and a lost fumble in a 30-0 loss at home to the Chiefs in an AFC wild-card game last season. Hoyer's Texans were playing from behind after 12 seconds thanks to a Knile Daviskickoff return touchdown, and yet Hoyer managed 15 completions for 135 yards.
That was as bad of a game as a quarterback could play against an electric Chiefs defense, one that ended his Texans season and career. So how much of the initial reaction to this over/under is recency bias? Hoyer's 28 career starts, including the playoffs, break down 16-12 in favor of the under. In six of his 12 "overs," he needed to drop back to pass at least 40 times. That seems like it would be an overly-aggressive approach from offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains with a backup quarterback -- and Hoyer generally produces via volume over efficiency.
The play: Under
[h=3]Mike Clay[/h]Chicago just lost at home by 15 points to a rookie quarterback, but I expect them to be a bit more competitive in Dallas this week. The Bears' defense is definitely not at full strength, but Prescott has been no better than solid in Tony Romo's place and Elliott has looked ordinary. Hoyer is as competent a backup quarterback as you'll find and he will be able to keep this one competitive by getting the ball to Jeffery (questionable), Kevin White, Eddie Royal and Zach Miller.
Prediction: Cowboys win 26-22
The Pick: Chicago +7 and over 44
