[h=1]How to bet Atlanta-New Orleans[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup on Monday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 3 games[/h]
[h=3]Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints[/h]Spread: Opened New Orleans -3.5; now New Orleans -2.5
Total: Opened 54; now 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent picked New Orleans
Public perception: The public is siding with the Saints. Why? The public likes high-scoring offenses and they get that in the Saints at home, though they've burned a lot of bettors lately as their home-field advantage isn't what it was a few years ago. The public just doesn't trust Matt Ryan and the Falcons.
Wiseguys' view: This game opened New Orleans -3.5 last Sunday afternoon at the Westgate (and CG Technology) and lasted less than an hour as sharps grabbed the Falcons plus the hook. The support has continued at +3 and several books have gone to 2.5 (some sharps will undoubtedly be shooting for a middle).
Dave Tuley's take: These teams are quite similar (potent offenses, terrible defenses) and that alone would have this closer to pick-em if the books didn't have to factor in the public's infatuation with betting the Saints at home. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings have the Falcons as a value bet, rating them 2 points better than the Saints on a neutral field.
One thing I haven't heard anyone mentioning (and it's the most obvious factor when looking at how these teams have played so far) is that the Falcons beat the Raiders last week while the Saints lost to that same team in Week 1 -- and the Falcons' win was on the road while the Saints were at home. Julio Jones andMohamed Sanu were dinged up earlier in the week, but they're expected to play and the Falcons should light up the Saints' D.
The Falcons' D isn't very good either, but still fared better against the Raiders. I bet this at +3 (EVEN) and obviously prefer that, but I'm expecting Atlanta to win outright and used it in every SU and ATS contest I play, so I'm keeping it a best bet.
The pick: Falcons +2.5 (EVEN)*.
Erin Rynning: This will serve as a fascinating match-up with two divisional teams that mirror each other in many ways. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan frame a solid common denominator at the quarterback position, while both teams possess the offensive weaponry to light up the scoreboard Monday night. The Saints are decimated in the secondary, especially with the loss of upstart Delvin Breaux. The Falcons own their share of deficiencies on defense with an overall lack of talent and inability to pressure the quarterback. I like the over here.
Recommendation: Over
Rufus Peabody: Expect both teams to put up gaudy numbers in this matchup of good offenses and bad defenses. While both offenses have excelled on first and second down, they've struggled on third down, with Atlanta only 8-for-23 and New Orleans 7-for-24 on the season. Those third down numbers should regress toward the teams' overall level of productivity. Early-season fantasy stud Willie Snead's status is up in the air, but New Orleans won't miss a beat if Michael Thomas has to step in. Unfortunately, I don't show any value on either the side or total.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -3.1
Mike Clay:
Score: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 26.
The pick: Atlanta
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 3 games, including the Atlanta-New Orleans matchup on Monday night.
Note: Odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
[h=3]Home page for all Week 3 games[/h]
Total: Opened 54; now 53.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 61 percent picked New Orleans
Public perception: The public is siding with the Saints. Why? The public likes high-scoring offenses and they get that in the Saints at home, though they've burned a lot of bettors lately as their home-field advantage isn't what it was a few years ago. The public just doesn't trust Matt Ryan and the Falcons.
Wiseguys' view: This game opened New Orleans -3.5 last Sunday afternoon at the Westgate (and CG Technology) and lasted less than an hour as sharps grabbed the Falcons plus the hook. The support has continued at +3 and several books have gone to 2.5 (some sharps will undoubtedly be shooting for a middle).
Dave Tuley's take: These teams are quite similar (potent offenses, terrible defenses) and that alone would have this closer to pick-em if the books didn't have to factor in the public's infatuation with betting the Saints at home. In fact, the NFL Vegas Rankings have the Falcons as a value bet, rating them 2 points better than the Saints on a neutral field.
One thing I haven't heard anyone mentioning (and it's the most obvious factor when looking at how these teams have played so far) is that the Falcons beat the Raiders last week while the Saints lost to that same team in Week 1 -- and the Falcons' win was on the road while the Saints were at home. Julio Jones andMohamed Sanu were dinged up earlier in the week, but they're expected to play and the Falcons should light up the Saints' D.
The Falcons' D isn't very good either, but still fared better against the Raiders. I bet this at +3 (EVEN) and obviously prefer that, but I'm expecting Atlanta to win outright and used it in every SU and ATS contest I play, so I'm keeping it a best bet.
The pick: Falcons +2.5 (EVEN)*.
Erin Rynning: This will serve as a fascinating match-up with two divisional teams that mirror each other in many ways. Drew Brees and Matt Ryan frame a solid common denominator at the quarterback position, while both teams possess the offensive weaponry to light up the scoreboard Monday night. The Saints are decimated in the secondary, especially with the loss of upstart Delvin Breaux. The Falcons own their share of deficiencies on defense with an overall lack of talent and inability to pressure the quarterback. I like the over here.
Recommendation: Over
Rufus Peabody: Expect both teams to put up gaudy numbers in this matchup of good offenses and bad defenses. While both offenses have excelled on first and second down, they've struggled on third down, with Atlanta only 8-for-23 and New Orleans 7-for-24 on the season. Those third down numbers should regress toward the teams' overall level of productivity. Early-season fantasy stud Willie Snead's status is up in the air, but New Orleans won't miss a beat if Michael Thomas has to step in. Unfortunately, I don't show any value on either the side or total.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -3.1
Mike Clay:
Score: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 26.
The pick: Atlanta
