Week 4 NFL betting line moves
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 5 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- As the first night of betting on NFL Week 4 came to a close Sunday night, six of the 15 games (Green Bay and Philadelphia are on their bye week) were off the betting boards at most sports books here.
Normally, the games involving the four teams playing on Sunday and Monday nights will be off the board at most books (though the Westgate SuperBook tries its best to have a line for every game), but the Buffalo-New England and Seattle-New York Jets games were also not available at most books because of the Patriots' and Seahawks' uncertain situations at quarterback (whether Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett will start for New England in its last game before Tom Brady's return, and whether Russell Wilson's knee injury will keep him out of Seattle's last game before its Week 5 bye).
With that in mind, let's take a look at the Week 4 lines to see how they've evolved as of Sunday night and where they might be headed (the line in parentheses is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of the end of Sunday night's game):
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Thursday: Miami at Cincinnati (-6.5): The advance line on this game was Bengals -6 and, even though they lost to the Broncos and the Dolphins beat the Browns, the Westgate opened the line right back at 6. Offshore books, as well as the Wynn and William Hill books in Nevada, went with Cincy -7, and the Westgate got bet up to 6.5 while the books that opted for 7 stayed there Sunday night.
Indianapolis (-2.5) at Jacksonville: The Colts were -2.5 on the advance line last week, but after the Jaguars lost to the Ravens and the Colts had to rally to get past the Chargers, the Westgate re-opened it at Indianapolis -1. CG Technology actually went with Jacksonville -1 while most other books were at Indy -1, with the Stratosphere at -2, but during the course of Sunday night all the support came in on the Colts and it steamed to -2.5.
Cleveland at Washington (-9): The Westgate's advance line was Washington -8.5 and after the Redskins beat the Giants and the Browns covered in their loss at Miami, the Westgate went with the same with most other Vegas and offshore books falling between -8.5 and -9.5 with a few -10s offshore. Early money pushed the line to Washington -9 at the Westgate and it looks like it's going to bounce around in the dead area between 7 and 10.
Buffalo at New England (OFF): As stated, this game is off the board (and was also off the board at the Westgate last week) as oddsmakers wait on the Patriots' QB status. However, CG Technology did post New England -4.5.
Seattle at New York Jets (OFF): This is off the board due to Wilson's knee injury, but we got some early clues as the Westgate's advance line was Seattle -2.5 and CG Technology posted Seattle -1 on Sunday afternoon.
Carolina (-3.5 EVEN) at Atlanta: The advance was Falcons -4, but it was adjusted down to -3.5 at the Westgate after the Panthers lost to the Vikings on Sunday. Most books had it off the board due to the Falcons playing on Monday night, but early money showed for Atlanta and the Westgate adjusted the juice (Falcons were down to +3.5 -120).
Detroit at Chicago (OFF): The Lions were -3 on the advance line and the Westgate dropped it to -2.5 after they lost at Green Bay on Sunday. The game was taken off the board with the Bears playing Sunday night, but after their performance I would expect this will be back to Detroit -3.
Tennessee at Houston (-6.5): The advance line was Houston -6 and, even after the Texans were blanked 27-0 by the Patriots on Thursday, the Westgate increased it to Houston -6.5 after Tennessee lost at home to Oakland. CG Technology and the Wynn went even higher at 7, and it looks like we'll see a combination of -6.5/-7 during the week.
Oakland at Baltimore (-3.5): The Ravens were 5-point favorites on the advance line last week but the Westgate reduced it to 3.5 after both teams won Sunday. William Hill went with Baltimore -4, as well as a few offshore books.
Denver (-3 EVEN) at Tampa Bay: The advance line was only Broncos -1.5 at the Westgate, but after the Broncos won in Cincinnati and the Buccaneers lost at home to the Rams, this was re-posted at Denver -2.5. Other books offered a mix of Broncos -2.5/-3 and the Westgate was bet to -3 (EVEN), so it looks like Denver -3 will be the more common number but with added juice on the Bucs +3.
Dallas at San Francisco (OFF): The Cowboys were a 3-point road favorite on the Westgate's advance line and posted right back there after the 49ers were routed in Seattle. Early money came in on the 49ers as the Westgate dropped the line to 2.5 before the Cowboys kicked off on Sunday night. With the way the Cowboys beat the Bears, I'd expect this to go back to Dallas -3.
New Orleans at San Diego (-3.5): The Chargers were -3 on the advance line and increased to -3.5 after playing the Colts tough before losing on Sunday. Most books had this game off the board with the Saints playing Monday night, but CG Technology went with San Diego -4. We'll see how the Saints look Monday night.
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</article>Los Angeles at Arizona (-9): The advance line was Cardinals -10.5 but after they lost at Buffalo and the Rams won at Tampa Bay, the Westgate adjusted all the way down to -9. CG Technology and offshore giant Pinnacle went with Cardinals -10, but other books opened lower and we've seen the line settle around 9, though Pinnacle went to 8 on Sunday night.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-5.5): The Steelers were -6 on the Westgate's advance line but after they were blown out by the Eagles and the Chiefs beat the Jets, the Westgate dropped it to 5.5. Most other books went with 5 while CRIS opted for 4.5. The line looks like it's settling at 5.
Monday: New York Giants at Minnesota (-4): The advance line was Minnesota -3 but after the Vikings went into Carolina and beat the Panthers and the Giants lost to the Redskins, this line was re-posted as Vikings -4. The Wynn and some offshore books went with 3.5 while CG Technology was the high book at 4.5, but Minnesota -4 looks like the right number.<style>.feedback_container {width: 100%;height: 100%;position: absolute;top:0;left:0;display: none;z-index: 9020;background-color: white;}.feedback_page {font-family: "Arial";font-size: 13px;margin: 16px 16px 16px 16px;}.feedback_title {font-weight: bold;color: #000000;}.feedback_page a {font-weight: normal;color: #3366cc;}.feedback_description {color: #666666;line-height: 16px;margin: 12px 0 12px 0;}.feedback_closing {color: #0367ff;line-height: 16px;margin: 12px 0 12px 0;}.feedback_logo {position: absolute;right: 0;bottom: 0;margin: 0 12px 9px 0;}.feedback_logo img {height: 15px;}.survey_description {color: #666666;line-height: 17px;margin: 12px 0 10px 0;}.survey {color: #666666;line-height: 20px;}.survey_option input {margin: 0;vertical-align: middle;}.survey_option_text {margin: 0 0 0 5px;line-height: 17px;vertical-align: bottom;}.survey_option:hover {background-color: lightblue;cursor: default;}</style>
Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 5 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- As the first night of betting on NFL Week 4 came to a close Sunday night, six of the 15 games (Green Bay and Philadelphia are on their bye week) were off the betting boards at most sports books here.
Normally, the games involving the four teams playing on Sunday and Monday nights will be off the board at most books (though the Westgate SuperBook tries its best to have a line for every game), but the Buffalo-New England and Seattle-New York Jets games were also not available at most books because of the Patriots' and Seahawks' uncertain situations at quarterback (whether Jimmy Garoppolo or Jacoby Brissett will start for New England in its last game before Tom Brady's return, and whether Russell Wilson's knee injury will keep him out of Seattle's last game before its Week 5 bye).
With that in mind, let's take a look at the Week 4 lines to see how they've evolved as of Sunday night and where they might be headed (the line in parentheses is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of the end of Sunday night's game):
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</article>Los Angeles at Arizona (-9): The advance line was Cardinals -10.5 but after they lost at Buffalo and the Rams won at Tampa Bay, the Westgate adjusted all the way down to -9. CG Technology and offshore giant Pinnacle went with Cardinals -10, but other books opened lower and we've seen the line settle around 9, though Pinnacle went to 8 on Sunday night.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-5.5): The Steelers were -6 on the Westgate's advance line but after they were blown out by the Eagles and the Chiefs beat the Jets, the Westgate dropped it to 5.5. Most other books went with 5 while CRIS opted for 4.5. The line looks like it's settling at 5.
Monday: New York Giants at Minnesota (-4): The advance line was Minnesota -3 but after the Vikings went into Carolina and beat the Panthers and the Giants lost to the Redskins, this line was re-posted as Vikings -4. The Wynn and some offshore books went with 3.5 while CG Technology was the high book at 4.5, but Minnesota -4 looks like the right number.<style>.feedback_container {width: 100%;height: 100%;position: absolute;top:0;left:0;display: none;z-index: 9020;background-color: white;}.feedback_page {font-family: "Arial";font-size: 13px;margin: 16px 16px 16px 16px;}.feedback_title {font-weight: bold;color: #000000;}.feedback_page a {font-weight: normal;color: #3366cc;}.feedback_description {color: #666666;line-height: 16px;margin: 12px 0 12px 0;}.feedback_closing {color: #0367ff;line-height: 16px;margin: 12px 0 12px 0;}.feedback_logo {position: absolute;right: 0;bottom: 0;margin: 0 12px 9px 0;}.feedback_logo img {height: 15px;}.survey_description {color: #666666;line-height: 17px;margin: 12px 0 10px 0;}.survey {color: #666666;line-height: 20px;}.survey_option input {margin: 0;vertical-align: middle;}.survey_option_text {margin: 0 0 0 5px;line-height: 17px;vertical-align: bottom;}.survey_option:hover {background-color: lightblue;cursor: default;}</style>
