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Thread: EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 4

  1. #1 EXBOOKIE wants to help the players week 4 
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    After three weeks of the NFL season, there are still four teams with perfect records against the spread. This group includes defending Super Bowl champion Broncos, upstart Eagles, Vikings and Patriots.
    Conversely, just one team remains winless against the spread entering Week 4. The scuffling Bears fell to 0-3 ATS after losing in Dallas 31-17 as a 6.5-point road underdog. Bettors know all streaks come to an end at some point; will this be the week? Chicago is installed as a 3.5-point home 'dawgagainst the Lions this week. That might be worth a look as underdogs in general have done well so far this season.

    DOG ARE WINNING MORE THAN FAV THIS YEAR 26-22

    points that matter in a game 7 this year out of 48 games. IT ALWAYS IS AROUND 16% over the last 20 years



    more to come

    ACE

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  2. #2  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    About points that matter

    It isn't the points that matter, its the line and the points that matter frequency:



    1129 dogs lose but cover in 6510 games: 17.3% points matter



    However it is relative to the line:



    LINE % points matter

    1.5 2.2

    2 2.6

    2.5 6.1

    3 4.9

    3.5 15.0

    4 14.3

    4.5 19.2

    5 14.7

    5.5 21.0

    6 17.1

    6.5 22.6

    7 22.6

    7.5 30.8

    8 31.1

    8.5 30.1

    9 31.0

    9.5 31.4

    10 28.8

    10.5 37.3

    11 28.8

    11.5 32.0

    12 30.9

    12.5 43.5

    13 32.8

    13.5 32.9

    14 28.4

    >14 49.2



    AVG 17.3 but as you can see it is the line that matters, not the points that matter.

    There are more upsets with lower dog lines, so the points that matter are smaller, but when the line goes up, there are fewer upsest, so the points matter a lot more.
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  3. #3  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    So basically on an NFL week with many high dog lines, there will typically be a lot more games where the line matters, but at the same time of there are few big dogs on a given Sunday, the points that matter will be slim. Basic math says this:



    Low line upsets 38% points that matter 12% = 50.0

    High line upsets 18% points that matter 32% = 50.0

    all lines upsets 32.7% points that matter 17.3%= 50.0
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  4. #4  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    There is evidence that the home field advantage may be shrinking:



    1989-2014 Home favorite -6.1 2015-present -5.4

    1989-2014 Home dog +4.6 2015-present +4.1

    1989-2014 All home -2.6 2015-present -2.1



    NOTE:



    There has been a recent -0.5 erosion in all home team lines. The jury is not conclusive as this covers just 300 total games, vs the previous 6530, or just a sample size of just 4.4%. It is something to watch going forward.

    anyone think the same
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  5. #5  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    4 plays this week
    two investment
    one 411
    two action

    t-minus 3 hours
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  6. #6  
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    Hi Ace! Will you posting the handicap newsletters ever again?
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  8. #8  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kc6 View Post
    Hi Ace! Will you posting the handicap newsletters ever again?
    Guy name buss in the rubber room does it every week. That's this posted in the rubber room....check him out. Link.... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...1#post11814281
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  9. #9  
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    Quote Originally Posted by ACE-ACE View Post
    Guy name buss in the rubber room does it every week. That's this posted in the rubber room....check him out. Link.... http://www.therxforum.com/showthread...1#post11814281
    Greatly appreciated.
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  10. #10  
    RX SemiGod slapshot's Avatar
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    How about them Bengals Ace

    Won a Prime Time game

    Tez back D looks better

    Just need Tyler back to help the Red Zone offense
    GO LEAFS GO
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  11. #11  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by slapshot View Post
    How about them Bengals Ace

    Won a Prime Time game

    Tez back D looks better

    Just need Tyler back to help the Red Zone offense
    had them in a pool.....but it was against Mia more so....

    good job
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  12. #12  
    RX SemiGod slapshot's Avatar
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    Good Luck today Ace

    Early start with the Jags Colts
    GO LEAFS GO
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  13. #13  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    IND -2.5................$400 -110

    love getting up and eating breakfast watching football.

    Go Colt
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  14. #14  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    0-1 to start -$440
    next
    sea under 40........$400 -105
    Det -3..................$2000.00 +100
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  15. #15  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    0-3 -$2860

    last game

    Dal -2.................$2000.00 -105. 411 play
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  16. #16  
    EX BOOKIE ACE-ACE's Avatar
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    1-3 on the week -$860.00

    on to wk 5
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  17. #17  
    RX Member vaidisss008's Avatar
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    good luck nxt week
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