Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 4 of the NFL
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
At Sports Insights, we practice what we preach, routinely going against the public by taking the NFL's least popular teams. By understanding what drives public perception, we have been able to capitalize on the market inefficiencies created by weekly overreactions.
Casual bettors are frequently stereotyped as having short tempers, but they might have even shorter memories. Case in point: Last week, the Arizona Cardinalswere the most popular pick of the season, receiving nearly 80 percent of spread bets against the Bills. Following their unexpected loss, they're less popular than black jelly beans. Take that, Jelly Belly!
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My past analysis has shown that bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from not only the previous week but also the previous season. That's especially true early in the season, when there's limited game film, and football fans are making bold proclamations based on a small sample. In fact, many of the sharpest bettors won't start placing wagers until several weeks into the season to ensure they have a representative sample.
Although some modeling projections aren't effective until there's sufficient data available, there are several unique opportunities for contrarian bettors in early-season games.
As I've reiterated countless times, I'm a strong advocate of buying on bad news and selling on good news. Casual bettors are prone to hyperbole, which means they revel in every victory and wallow in every defeat. They believe the league's top teams are unstoppable superpowers and the worst teams are utterly incompetent. In truth, the gap separating the haves and have-nots is surprisingly small.
Based on this tendency, I theorized that the league's worst teams from the previous season would be vastly undervalued, particularly in the first few weeks of the season. To confirm this belief, I spoke with Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu.
"[The league's worst teams] are absolutely ignored early in the season," according to Cooley. "The memory of a public sports bettor is short, but when you hammer home something in their head for a full season, such as wins or losses, those things stick. As we get deeper into the season, the square memory gets even shorter, and really they only think about what happened last week."
You can take advantage of the previous week's results throughout the season. Casual bettors will always overreact to recent results, and oddsmakers will adjust their numbers to account for the inevitable influx of square money. That said, there's only a limited time frame to capitalize on last season's results.
Since the start of the 2003 regular season, teams that won six games or fewer in the previous season have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent clip. Bettors have traditionally been unwilling to touch these cellar-dwellers with a 10-foot pole, as they received a majority of public bets in less than 25 percent of their games. During the first few weeks of the season, the value on these supposedly woeful teams has been amplified. My research revealed that these six-win teams have gone 276-243 ATS (53.2 percent) in the first four games of the season.
In earlier articles, I explained that favorites and home-field advantage have beenhistorically overvalued, so I believed this system could be greatly improved be focusing on road underdogs.
Over the past 13 seasons, teams with six or fewer wins in the previous season have been underdogs in two-thirds of their games. When they were also visitors, teams fitting these criteria have gone 436-368 ATS (54.2 percent). That win rate jumps to 57.5 percent in the first four games of the season.
In the past, I found that underdogs have performed exceptionally well in games with low totals. Because low-scoring games have a narrower range of potential outcomes, the team getting points benefits disproportionately. After filtering out games with a closing total greater than 48, the win rate jumps to 59.7 percent.
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</aside>Why does this work? As we mentioned in our Week 1 article, bettors are highly influenced by past results and are unlikely to take teams that have burned them in the past. That's particularly curious because a good win-loss record doesn't necessarily correlate with a good performance against the spread. For example, the Patriots (12-4) tied for the best record in football last season but were just 7-7-2 ATS.
Whenever a majority of bettors have a negative impression of a team, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for public perception. These shaded lines create value for opportunistic contrarian bettors who are willing to swoop in and take the underdog at an inflated price.
Early in the season, bettors are still placing an inordinate amount of value on last season's results, but past performance isn't always indicative of future success. By taking the league's worst teams from the previous seasons, bettors are able to capitalize on overly reactionary square bettors.
Last week's system matches went just 1-2 ATS, which dropped the record to 5-4 ATS on the season. This week, we'll try to right the ship with four road underdogs that are offering value.
Week 4 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
For the third straight week, it looks like there's excellent value in the Thursday night game. After narrowly defeating the Browns at home, the Dolphins opened as 6-point underdogs at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
In early action, Cincinnati has received 69 percent of spread bets at Sports Insights contributing sportsbooks. This lopsided public betting caused the line to move from Bengals minus-6 to minus-7. Because no bet signals have been triggered on this game, we can assume that public money is largely responsible for this one-point line move. This line move is hugely significant because "7" is the second-most important key number for NFL bettors.
The Dolphins have historically been far more profitable on the road than at home. After they failed to cover against the Browns last week, this could be a great opportunity to buy low on Miami. The Dolphins might not win, but I like them to keep it close in a low-scoring game.
The pick: Dolphins +7
Cleveland Browns (+8) at Washington Redskins
Last week, Cody Kessler joined Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett and Dak Prescott as the sixth quarterback to make his NFL debut this season. Although Cleveland couldn't pull off the upset win, the Browns were able to cover the spread. That pushed the record of first-time quarterbacks to 12-1 ATS this season.
Since 2003, road teams that lost their previous game but covered the spread have gone 111-74 ATS (60 percent) in their subsequent games. That points toward value on the Browns +8.
Furthermore, Washington's Kirk Cousins has struggled whenever he has dealt with high expectations. The fifth-year quarterback has gone 14-9 ATS as an underdog, but he has never covered the spread (0-6 ATS) as a favorite.
The Browns, playing in back-to-back road games, look like a great value this week. Their rushing game has been quietly effective, and I expect them to find unique ways to utilize Terrelle Pryor. If able to limit the number of possessions and prevent major mistakes, I think Cleveland might be able to pull off the upset this week.
The pick: Browns +8
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Houston Texans
In one of this week's more overlooked games, the Texans opened as 6.5-point favorites and have received just 36 percent of spread tickets and 8 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite their limited public support, the line hasn't moved all week. The reason? Offshore sportsbooks have already taken sharp action on Tennessee +7.
Earlier this year, I explained that road underdogs are vastly undervalued in divisional rivalry games, especially when there's a low total. The Titans' offense has underwhelmed this season, but this team has some talented running backs and an underrated defense.
This game has the lowest Week 4 total, at 40.5, so points are expected to be at a premium. I'm happy to take the points and root for a competitive game.
The pick: Titans +6.5
New York Giants (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
This week's Monday Night Football game looks to offer tremendous value to contrarian bettors. The Giants opened as 4-point underdogs and have received just 36 percent of spread bets and 30 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite public bettors' favoring Minnesota, the line still hasn't moved at the Westgate.
The Vikings are coming off an impressive road victory against the Panthers, which makes them the perfect "sell high" candidates. Conversely, the Giants are coming off a bad loss to the Redskins, which makes them excellent "buy low" candidates.
Eli Manning has gone 54-38 ATS (58.7 percent) on the road, including a 43-27 ATS record (61.4 percent) in conference games. The emergence of Sterling Shepard, the resurgence of Victor Cruz and the preeminence of Odell Beckham give New York three viable options in the passing game. The Vikings might have silenced the past two MVP winners, but I think Manning surprises everybody with a huge game on Monday.
The pick: Giants +4
These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Oddspage throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
At Sports Insights, we practice what we preach, routinely going against the public by taking the NFL's least popular teams. By understanding what drives public perception, we have been able to capitalize on the market inefficiencies created by weekly overreactions.
Casual bettors are frequently stereotyped as having short tempers, but they might have even shorter memories. Case in point: Last week, the Arizona Cardinalswere the most popular pick of the season, receiving nearly 80 percent of spread bets against the Bills. Following their unexpected loss, they're less popular than black jelly beans. Take that, Jelly Belly!
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
My past analysis has shown that bettors tend to overvalue outcomes from not only the previous week but also the previous season. That's especially true early in the season, when there's limited game film, and football fans are making bold proclamations based on a small sample. In fact, many of the sharpest bettors won't start placing wagers until several weeks into the season to ensure they have a representative sample.
Although some modeling projections aren't effective until there's sufficient data available, there are several unique opportunities for contrarian bettors in early-season games.
As I've reiterated countless times, I'm a strong advocate of buying on bad news and selling on good news. Casual bettors are prone to hyperbole, which means they revel in every victory and wallow in every defeat. They believe the league's top teams are unstoppable superpowers and the worst teams are utterly incompetent. In truth, the gap separating the haves and have-nots is surprisingly small.
Based on this tendency, I theorized that the league's worst teams from the previous season would be vastly undervalued, particularly in the first few weeks of the season. To confirm this belief, I spoke with Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu.
"[The league's worst teams] are absolutely ignored early in the season," according to Cooley. "The memory of a public sports bettor is short, but when you hammer home something in their head for a full season, such as wins or losses, those things stick. As we get deeper into the season, the square memory gets even shorter, and really they only think about what happened last week."
You can take advantage of the previous week's results throughout the season. Casual bettors will always overreact to recent results, and oddsmakers will adjust their numbers to account for the inevitable influx of square money. That said, there's only a limited time frame to capitalize on last season's results.
Since the start of the 2003 regular season, teams that won six games or fewer in the previous season have covered the spread at a 51.4 percent clip. Bettors have traditionally been unwilling to touch these cellar-dwellers with a 10-foot pole, as they received a majority of public bets in less than 25 percent of their games. During the first few weeks of the season, the value on these supposedly woeful teams has been amplified. My research revealed that these six-win teams have gone 276-243 ATS (53.2 percent) in the first four games of the season.
In earlier articles, I explained that favorites and home-field advantage have beenhistorically overvalued, so I believed this system could be greatly improved be focusing on road underdogs.
Over the past 13 seasons, teams with six or fewer wins in the previous season have been underdogs in two-thirds of their games. When they were also visitors, teams fitting these criteria have gone 436-368 ATS (54.2 percent). That win rate jumps to 57.5 percent in the first four games of the season.
In the past, I found that underdogs have performed exceptionally well in games with low totals. Because low-scoring games have a narrower range of potential outcomes, the team getting points benefits disproportionately. After filtering out games with a closing total greater than 48, the win rate jumps to 59.7 percent.
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| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD |
|---|---|
| Road underdog | 1120-1058 (51.4%) |
| Road underdog, O/U < 48.5 | 991-913 (52.0%) |
| Road underdog, O/U < 48.5, prior season < 7 wins | 407-321 (55.9%) |
| Road underdog, O/U < 48.5, prior season < 7 wins, first four games | 117-79 (59.7%) |
| * Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records. |
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</aside>Why does this work? As we mentioned in our Week 1 article, bettors are highly influenced by past results and are unlikely to take teams that have burned them in the past. That's particularly curious because a good win-loss record doesn't necessarily correlate with a good performance against the spread. For example, the Patriots (12-4) tied for the best record in football last season but were just 7-7-2 ATS.
Whenever a majority of bettors have a negative impression of a team, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for public perception. These shaded lines create value for opportunistic contrarian bettors who are willing to swoop in and take the underdog at an inflated price.
Early in the season, bettors are still placing an inordinate amount of value on last season's results, but past performance isn't always indicative of future success. By taking the league's worst teams from the previous seasons, bettors are able to capitalize on overly reactionary square bettors.
Last week's system matches went just 1-2 ATS, which dropped the record to 5-4 ATS on the season. This week, we'll try to right the ship with four road underdogs that are offering value.
Week 4 system matches
Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
Miami Dolphins (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals
For the third straight week, it looks like there's excellent value in the Thursday night game. After narrowly defeating the Browns at home, the Dolphins opened as 6-point underdogs at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
In early action, Cincinnati has received 69 percent of spread bets at Sports Insights contributing sportsbooks. This lopsided public betting caused the line to move from Bengals minus-6 to minus-7. Because no bet signals have been triggered on this game, we can assume that public money is largely responsible for this one-point line move. This line move is hugely significant because "7" is the second-most important key number for NFL bettors.
The Dolphins have historically been far more profitable on the road than at home. After they failed to cover against the Browns last week, this could be a great opportunity to buy low on Miami. The Dolphins might not win, but I like them to keep it close in a low-scoring game.
The pick: Dolphins +7
Cleveland Browns (+8) at Washington Redskins
Last week, Cody Kessler joined Carson Wentz, Trevor Siemian, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett and Dak Prescott as the sixth quarterback to make his NFL debut this season. Although Cleveland couldn't pull off the upset win, the Browns were able to cover the spread. That pushed the record of first-time quarterbacks to 12-1 ATS this season.
Since 2003, road teams that lost their previous game but covered the spread have gone 111-74 ATS (60 percent) in their subsequent games. That points toward value on the Browns +8.
Furthermore, Washington's Kirk Cousins has struggled whenever he has dealt with high expectations. The fifth-year quarterback has gone 14-9 ATS as an underdog, but he has never covered the spread (0-6 ATS) as a favorite.
The Browns, playing in back-to-back road games, look like a great value this week. Their rushing game has been quietly effective, and I expect them to find unique ways to utilize Terrelle Pryor. If able to limit the number of possessions and prevent major mistakes, I think Cleveland might be able to pull off the upset this week.
The pick: Browns +8
Tennessee Titans (+6.5) at Houston Texans
In one of this week's more overlooked games, the Texans opened as 6.5-point favorites and have received just 36 percent of spread tickets and 8 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite their limited public support, the line hasn't moved all week. The reason? Offshore sportsbooks have already taken sharp action on Tennessee +7.
Earlier this year, I explained that road underdogs are vastly undervalued in divisional rivalry games, especially when there's a low total. The Titans' offense has underwhelmed this season, but this team has some talented running backs and an underrated defense.
This game has the lowest Week 4 total, at 40.5, so points are expected to be at a premium. I'm happy to take the points and root for a competitive game.
The pick: Titans +6.5
New York Giants (+4) at Minnesota Vikings
This week's Monday Night Football game looks to offer tremendous value to contrarian bettors. The Giants opened as 4-point underdogs and have received just 36 percent of spread bets and 30 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite public bettors' favoring Minnesota, the line still hasn't moved at the Westgate.
The Vikings are coming off an impressive road victory against the Panthers, which makes them the perfect "sell high" candidates. Conversely, the Giants are coming off a bad loss to the Redskins, which makes them excellent "buy low" candidates.
Eli Manning has gone 54-38 ATS (58.7 percent) on the road, including a 43-27 ATS record (61.4 percent) in conference games. The emergence of Sterling Shepard, the resurgence of Victor Cruz and the preeminence of Odell Beckham give New York three viable options in the passing game. The Vikings might have silenced the past two MVP winners, but I think Manning surprises everybody with a huge game on Monday.
The pick: Giants +4
These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Oddspage throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
