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NFL Capsules
October 2, 2016


FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) The Buffalo Bills took advantage of sloppy, Tom Brady-less New England to hand the Patriots their first home shutout at Gillette Stadium, winning 16-0 on Sunday.


It was the first loss of the season for New England (3-1), which was playing its final game before Brady returns from his four-game ''Deflategate'' suspension. The Patriots, who moved into Gillette Stadium in 2002, were last blanked at home 6-0 by the New York Jets in 1993 at Foxboro Stadium.


Tyrod Taylor connected with LeSean McCoy for a 7-yard touchdown pass in the first quarter, Dan Carpenter added three field goals for Buffalo (2-2).


It was Buffalo's second win in its last 16 visits to Foxborough. Including his tenure with the New York Jets, it gave Bills coach Rex Ryan his first regular-season road victory over Bill Belichick in eight tries. The last Bills' shutout win away From Orchard Park was 23-0 over Washington in a Buffalo ''home'' game at Toronto on Oct. 30, 2011.


After struggling to maintain drives and finding a run-pass balance, Taylor was spot-on Sunday. He finished 27 for 39 for 246 yards, and directed a unit that was 7 for 15 on third downs. The Bills had been 10 of 36 combined in the first three games.


Buffalo's defense also carried over its dominant effort from its 33-18 win over Arizona, sacking rookie Jacoby Brissett three times.


STEELERS 43, CHIEFS 7


PITTSBURGH (AP) - Ben Roethlisberger threw five touchdowns passes for the fifth time in his career and Pittsburgh throttled Kansas City.


A week after suffering the franchise's worst loss in 27 years, the Steelers (3-1) responded by overwhelming the erratic Chiefs (2-2).


Roethlisberger hit Antonio Brown - wearing cleats featuring the profile of golf great and western Pennsylvania native Arnold Palmer - for a pair of scores.


Roethlisberger also found Markus Wheaton, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jesse James for touchdowns as the Steelers emphatically rebounded from a 31-point meltdown in Philadelphia. The quarterback finished 22 of 27 for 300 yards and a rating of 152.5, just shy of a perfect 158.3 rating.


Le'Veon Bell ran for 144 yards on 18 carries and caught five passes for 34 yards in his return from a three-game suspension for violating the NFL's substance abuse policy.

COWBOYS 24, 49ERS 17


SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Ezekiel Elliott ran for 138 yards and a touchdown and Dak Prescott threw for two scores to help the Cowboys overcome an early 14-point deficit to beat the 49ers.


The Cowboys (3-1) fell in a 14-point hole early in the second quarter before taking over the game behind a pair of rookies who have helped the team get off to a fast start this season with starting quarterback Tony Romo sidelined by a back injury.


Prescott threw for 245 yards and had a 20-yard touchdown pass to Terrance Williams and a 4-yarder to Brice Butler to tie the game at the half.


Elliott then took over with 96 yards rushing in the second half, including a 1-yard run that gave Dallas the lead for good late in the third quarter.


Blaine Gabbert got off to a fast start to help San Francisco (1-3) take the early lead but struggled to generate any offense after that.

RAIDERS 28, RAVENS 27


BALTIMORE (AP) - Derek Carr threw four touchdown passes, the last to Michael Crabtree with 2:12 left.


After the Ravens rallied from a nine-point deficit in the fourth quarter to go ahead with 3 + minutes remaining, Carr directed a 66-yard drive that ended with a 23-yard strike to Crabtree in the back of the end zone.


Carr went 25 for 35 for 199 yards. Three of his TD passes went to Crabtree, who finished with seven catches for 88 yards to help Oakland (3-1) to its third road win.


The Ravens (3-1) trailed 14-3 in the second quarter and 21-12 with 11:11 to go before coming back.


A 52-yard touchdown pass from Joe Flacco to Steve Smith cut the deficit to 21-19. Ravens defensive tackle Lawrence Guy then forced a fumble by DeAndre Washington, and Baltimore recovered at the Oakland 17.


Four plays later, Terrance West scored from the 3 to give Baltimore its first lead.


FALCONS 48, PANTHERS 33


ATLANTA (AP) - Matt Ryan shredded Carolina's defense, passing for a team-record 503 yards and four touchdowns, Julio Jones had 12 receptions for a Falcons-record 300 yards. The totals by Ryan and Jones are the most ever allowed by Carolina.


One week after being held to one catch in a win at New Orleans, Jones had a 75-yard scoring catch late in the game as Atlanta solidified its early hold on the NFC South lead.


Carolina quarterback Cam Newton, the 2015 league MVP, left in the fourth quarter and was evaluated for concussion symptoms after taking a hit from Deion Jones on a successful 2-point run. There appeared to be helmet-to-helmet contact but there was no penalty on the hit.


The defending NFC champion Panthers (1-3) scored three fourth-quarter touchdowns, including scoring passes from Newton's replacement, Derek Anderson, to tight end Greg Olsen and Corey Brown. Robert Alford's 30-yard interception return for a touchdown with 1:14 remaining clinched the win for the Falcons (3-1).`

BRONCOS 27, BUCCANEERS 7


TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - Paxton Lynch made his NFL debut sooner than expected, stepping in for injured starter Trevor Siemian to help the Broncos remain unbeaten with a victory over the Buccaneers.


Siemian left the game with two minutes remaining in the first half with what the defending Super Bowl champions described as an injury to his left (non-throwing) shoulder. He remained in uniform and watched the second half from the sideline, wearing a baseball cap while Lynch - the 26th pick in this year's draft- finished the Broncos' ninth consecutive win.


Siemien threw a touchdown pass to Demaryius Thomas, capitalizing on Aqib Talib's interception and 25-yard return to the Bucs 11 on Tampa Bay's opening possession. The ex-Buc cornerback also set up another first-half TD with a second interception that led to C.J. Anderson's 1-yard run for a 14-7 lead.


For the second straight week, play was stopped in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium because of inclement weather. The game was suspended for 1 hour, 26 minutes with 6:52 remaining Sunday, with only a few thousand fans returning to their seats for the conclusion.

SAINTS 35, CHARGERS 34


SAN DIEGO (AP) -Drew Brees led New Orleans to two touchdowns in the final 4 minutes, 50 seconds to rally the Saints to a stunning victory against Philip Rivers and the Chargers, who blew a 13-point lead by committing two crucial turnovers..


Brees overcome two interceptions to win in his return to San Diego, where he played his first five NFL seasons before being allowed to leave as a free agent. It was also the first win this season for the Saints (1-3).


After the final gun, Brees ran over to the stands and greeted Saints fans.


With the Chargers (1-3) trying to protect a 34-21 lead, Melvin Gordon fumbled and Darryl Tapp recovered at the San Diego 13, setting up Brees' 5-yard TD pass to Michael Thomas on fourth-and-2 to pull to 34-28 with 4:50 to go.


Travis Benjamin then fumbled after a reception and Nate Stupar recovered at the San Diego 31. Seven plays later, fullback John Kuhn scored his third TD of the game, on a 1-yard run. The PAT made it 35-34.


Rivers, who was Brees' understudy for his first two NFL seasons, was intercepted by B.W. Webb with 1:10 to go.


RAMS 17, CARDINALS 13


GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) - Tavon Austin returned a punt 47 yards to set up Case Keenum's 4-yard touchdown pass to Brian Quick with 2:41 to play, and the Rams improved to 3-1 for the first time in a decade with a victory over the Cardinals (1-3).


Arizona's Carson Palmer threw for 288 yards and a touchdown but left the game to be evaluated for a concussion after his head slammed to the turf on a sack by Aaron Donald with 5:40 to play.


The play forced a Cardinals punt and Austin raced past would-be tacklers to the Arizona 34. A facemask penalty against Ifeanyi Momah moved the ball to the 19 and the Rams went ahead when Quick caught a pass under tight defense for the score.


Arizona backup Drew Stanton was intercepted twice in the final minutes, including on a Hail Mary on the game's final play.

JAGUARS 30, COLTS 27


LONDON (AP) - Blake Bortles threw for two touchdowns and ran for another as Jacksonville held off a furious Indianapolis Colts rally for the Jaguars' first win of the season. The victory at a raucous Wembley Stadium elevated Jacksonville into a tie with Indianapolis at 1-3 in the AFC South.


Andrew Luck led the Colts on three fourth-quarter touchdown drives to rattle the Jaguars' nerves. But his fourth-and-1 pass at the Jacksonville 49 with 1:36 remaining fell from the hands of tight end Dwayne Allen to preserve the victory for under-fire Jaguars coach Gus Bradley.


The Jaguars got a semblance of a running game going for the first time this season. T.J. Yeldon carried 13 times for 68 yards and Bortles added seven scrambles for 36 yards, including a 1-yard run that put Jacksonville ahead 14-6 midway through the second quarter.


The Colts repeatedly self-destructed on offense with dropped balls and another costly Luck interception that led to Jacksonville's opening touchdown. The Colts proved just as reckless on defense as pass interference and unnecessary roughness penalties extended three Jacksonville scoring drives.


The Jaguars led 23-6 after three quarters before the Colts mounted a tenacious comeback.

SEAHAWKS 27, JETS 17


EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) - Russell Wilson was sharp and efficient despite playing with a sprained knee, throwing three touchdown passes.


Wilson injured the medial collateral ligament in his left knee last week against San Francisco and wasn't his usual mobile self in this one, but his arm was plenty good. He finished 23 of 32 for 309 yards while wearing a brace on his leg as the Seahawks (3-1) won at MetLife Stadium for the first time since beating the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl in 2014.


Jimmy Graham, questionable with back spasms earlier in the week, had six catches for 113 yards, including an impressive 17-yard one-handed grab in the opening quarter, while giving the Jets (1-3) fits all game.


Wilson missed the first snap of his career due to injury last weekend after getting pulled down by San Francisco's Eli Harold. The Seahawks quarterback has also dealt with a sprained right ankle from the opener against Miami. He was efficient against the Jets, especially in the first half when he went 10 of 11 for 191 yards and two TDs and a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating. He finished with minus-5 yards on five rushes for Seattle, which has a bye next weekend.


Wilson helped Seattle, making the first of three East Coast trips this season, improve to 8-5 in its last 13 games with a 1 p.m. Eastern start time.


Richard Sherman had two interceptions and Earl Thomas one as Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Jets couldn't get much going against the NFL's No. 1-ranked defense.


REDSKINS 31, BROWNS 20


LANDOVER, Md. (AP) - Kirk Cousins threw three touchdown passes, including two to tight end Jordan Reed, and the Washington Redskins cashed in on several trips to the red zone.


The Redskins (2-2) scored four red zone touchdowns against the Browns (0-4) after going 3 for 14 in their first three games. Cousins connected with Reed for 8- and 9-yard touchdowns, Chris Thompson for a 5-yard score, and running back Matt Jones scored from 1 yard as part of his 117-yard performance.


Jones eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the first time this season, and Cousins finished 21 of 27 for 183 yards and also had an interception.


Browns running back Isaiah Crowell ran for 112 yards and a touchdown, and Cody Kessler was 27 of 38 for 215 yards, one touchdown and one interception. But turnovers on three consecutive second-half possessions cost Cleveland a chance at its first victory.


TEXANS 27, TITANS 20


HOUSTON (AP) - Will Fuller had a tiebreaking 67-yard punt return for a touchdown. It was the first time Houston (3-1) played without its star defensive end J.J. Watt since the 2010 season. Watt, out for the season after back surgery, had started 83 straight games since being drafted in 2011.


Fuller also had 81 yards receiving and a touchdown.


Tennessee (1-3) was driving with less than two minutes remaining, but Marcus Mariota's pass to former Texan Andre Johnson on fourth down was broken up.


The Texans squandered an early 14-point lead and their offense was struggling in the second half when Fuller took the first return of his career for a touchdown to make it 27-20. Fuller, who ran a 4.32 40-yard dash at the combine, took the punt and quickly made a trio of Titans miss before outrunning everyone else down the sideline for the score.


BEARS 17, LIONS 14


CHICAGO (AP) - Brian Hoyer threw for 302 yards and two touchdowns, and the Bears (1-3) got a win after starting 0-3 for the second time in as many seasons under coach John Fox.


They also stopped a six-game home losing streak as well as a six-game slide against Detroit (1-3), though things got tight near the end.


Chicago was leading 17-6 when Andre Roberts returned a punt 85 yards for a touchdown. Golden Tate then caught a 2-point conversion pass from Matthew Stafford to cut it to 17-14 with 1:52 left, but the Bears recovered the onside kick.


Hoyer was on target in his second straight start with Jay Cutler nursing a sprained right thumb. He was 28 of 36 passes against a defense missing the injured Ezekiel Ansah and DeAndre Levy.


Eddie Royal caught seven passes for 111 yards and a touchdown. Rookie Jordan Howard ran for a career-high 111 yards for Chicago.


The Lions dropped their third straight.

NFL Today, Week 4
October 3, 2016


SCOREBOARD


Monday, Oct. 3


New York Giants at Minnesota, 8:30 p.m., EDT. The Vikings (3-0) have won five of the past seven in the series. ... The Giants (2-1) will play away from home for the 17th time in their past 21 Monday night appearances, a stretch beginning with a 28-16 loss to the Vikings at the Metrodome on Nov. 19, 2001. In seven starts vs. the Vikings, Giants QB Eli Manning has five TDs, 14 interceptions, a 54.1 completion rate and 54.8 passer rating with a 2-5 record. This is the first Monday night home game for the Vikings since Dec. 20, 2010, a 40-14 loss to the Bears at University of Minnesota after the Metrodome collapse forced a venue change. That was QB Brett Favre's final NFL game.


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STARS


Passing


-Matt Ryan, Falcons, was 28 for 37 for a team-record 503 yards and four touchdown passes and an interception in Atlanta's 48-33 win over Carolina . Ryan's performance is the 19th 500-yard passing game in NFL history.


-Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers, was 22 for 27 for 300 yards and five touchdown passes in Pittsburgh's 43-14 victory over Kansas City . It was Roethlisberger's fifth career game with five TD passes.


-Russell Wilson, Seahawks, was 23 for 32 for 309 yards and three touchdown passes in Seattle's 27-17 win over the New York Jets . Wilson has 25 games with multiple touchdown passes and no interceptions, the most by a player in NFL history in his first five seasons.


-Brian Hoyer, Bears, was 28 for 36 for 302 yards and two touchdown passes as Chicago earned its first win of the season with a 17-14 victory over Detroit.


-Philip Rivers, Chargers, was 28 for 43 for 321 yards and two touchdowns and an interception in San Diego's 35-34 loss to New Orleans.


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Rushing


-Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys, had 23 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown in Dallas' 24-17 win over San Francisco .


-Le'Veon Bell, Steelers, had 18 carries for 144 yards in Pittsburgh's 43-14 victory over Kansas City.


-Matt Jones, Redskins, had 22 carries for 117 yards and a touchdown in Washington's 31-20 win over Cleveland.


-Terrance West, Ravens, had 21 carries for 113 yards and a touchdown in Baltimore's 28-27 loss to Oakland.


-Isaiah Crowell, Browns, had 15 carries for 112 yards and a touchdown in Cleveland's 31-20 loss to Washington.


-Jordan Howard, Bears, had 23 carries for 111 yards in Chicago's 17-14 win over Detroit.


-DeMarco Murray, Titans, had 25 carries for 95 yards and two touchdowns in Tennessee's 27-20 loss to Houston.


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Receiving


-Julio Jones, Falcons, had 12 catches for a team-record 300 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown in Atlanta's 48-33 win over Carolina. It was the sixth-most yards receiving in a game in NFL history.


-Michael Crabtree, Raiders, had seven catches for 88 yards and three touchdowns in Oakland's 28-27 win over Baltimore . Crabtree is the first Raider to have three touchdown receptions in a game since Jerry Porter on Dec. 19, 2004, against Tennessee.


-John Brown, Cardinals, had 10 catches for 144 yards in Arizona's 17-13 loss to Los Angeles.


-Dontrelle Inman, Chargers, had seven catches for 120 yards, including a 57-yard touchdown in San Diego's 35-34 loss to New Orleans.


-Jimmy Graham, Seahawks, had six catches for 113 yards in Seattle's 27-17 win over the New York Jets.


-Eddie Royal, Bears, had seven catches for 111 yards and a touchdown in Chicago's 17-14 win over Detroit.


-Steve Smith, Ravens, had eight catches for 111 and a touchdown in Baltimore's 28-27 loss to Oakland.


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Special Teams


-Andre Roberts, Lions, returned a punt 85 yards for a touchdown in Detroit's 17-14 loss to Chicago.


-Will Fuller, Texans, returned a punt 67 yards for a touchdown in Houston's 27-20 win over Tennessee. Fuller is the fourth rookie in the past 15 years to get both a touchdown catch and a punt return TD in the same game. He joins Tavon Austin (2013), T.Y. Hilton (2012) and Dez Bryant (2010).


- Jason Myers, Jaguars, was 3 for 3 on field goals in Jacksonville's 30-27 win over Indianapolis.


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Defense


-Robert Alford, Falcons, returned an interception 30 yards for a touchdown in Atlanta's 48-33 win over Carolina.


-Kurt Coleman, Panthers, returned an interception 8 yards for a touchdown in Carolina's 48-33 loss to Atlanta.


-Cam Johnson, Browns, had two sacks and a forced fumble in Cleveland's 31-20 loss to Washington.


-Derek Wolfe, Broncos, had two sacks in Denver's 27-7 win over Tampa Bay.


-Aaron Donald, Rams had 1+ sacks and a forced fumble in Los Angeles' 17-13 win over Arizona.


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MILESTONES


The Falcons' Matt Ryan passed for 503 yards and four touchdowns, while wide receiver Julio Jones had 12 catches for 300 yards and a touchdown in Atlanta's 48-33 win over Carolina. The Falcons are the first team in NFL history to have a 500-yard passer and 300-yard receiver in the same game. ... Indianapolis running back Frank Gore rushed for 68 yards and a touchdown. Gore has 12,293 rushing yards and passed Marcus Allen (12,243), Edgerrin James (12,246) and Marshall Faulk (12,279) to move into 10th place in NFL history.


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HOME AWAY FROM HOME


The Jacksonville Jaguars defeated Indianapolis 30-27 in front of 83,764 at London's Wembley Stadium in the first of three 2016 International Series games in the United Kingdom.


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TOUGH WEATHER IN TAMPA


For the second straight week, play was stopped in the fourth quarter at Raymond James Stadium because of inclement weather. The game was suspended for 1 hour, 26 minutes with 6:52 remaining Sunday, with only a few thousand fans returning to their seats for the conclusion. Denver moved to 4-0 on the season with a 27-7 win over the Buccaneers .


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STREAKS & STATS


Washington tight end Jordan Reed had nine catches for 73 yards and two touchdowns in the Redskins' 31-20 win over Cleveland. Reed has 207 catches and reached 200 receptions in his 38th game. He reached the 200-catch mark in the fewest games in NFL history for a tight end, passing Hall of Famer Kellen Winslow (39 games). ... Dallas rookie quarterback Dak Prescott completed 23-of-32 passes (71.9 percent) for 245 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the Cowboys' 24-17 win at San Francisco. Prescott has no interceptions in his first 131 attempts, the most pass attempts by a rookie without an interception to begin a career. They are also the most by a player who did not throw an interception in his first four games. ... Jaguars wide receiver Allen Robinson had a touchdown reception in Jacksonville's 30-27 win and has 17 TD catches since the start of the 2015 season, the most in the NFL during that span. ... Oakland quarterback Derek Carr threw four touchdown passes with no interceptions and Raiders wide receiver Michael Crabtree had three touchdown receptions in the team's 28-27 win at Baltimore. Carr, who passed for four touchdowns with no interceptions on Nov. 1, 2015, against the New York Jets, is the first Raiders quarterback to have a 4 TD and 0 INT effort in back-to-back seasons since Rich Gannon in 1999 and 2000. Crabtree is the first Raider to have three touchdown receptions in a game since Jerry Porter on Dec. 19, 2004, against Tennessee. Oakland has won its first three road games of the season. The previous time Oakland won its first three road games of the season was in 2002. ... The Patriots lost 16-0 at home against Buffalo. The Patriots, who moved into Gillette Stadium in 2002, were last blanked at home 6-0 by the New York Jets in 1993 at Foxboro Stadium. It was Buffalo's second win in its past 16 visits to Foxborough. Including his tenure with the New York Jets, it gave Bills coach Rex Ryan his first regular-season road victory over Bill Belichick in eight tries. ... The Seahawks beat the Jets 27-17 and won at MetLife Stadium for the first time since beating the Denver Broncos in the Super Bowl in 2014.


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SIDELINED


Cam Newton sustained a concussion after a hard hit in the fourth quarter. Newton was pulled after he was hit hard, but cleanly, by Falcons linebacker Deion Jones on a successful 2-point conversion run that pulled the Panthers within 34-18. ... Denver's Trevor Siemian was sidelined during the Broncos' game against the Buccaneers with an injury to his left, non-throwing shoulder. Tampa Bay also sustained a significant injury in the game as four-time Pro Bowl tackle Gerald McCoy left with a calf injury during the first half. McCoy left the field early in the second quarter, walking gingerly with assistance from a trainer. Arizona lost Carson Palmer early in the fourth quarter of their 17-13 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. Palmer was injured when his head slammed the turf on a sack by Aaron Donald. He originally was evaluated for concussion symptoms by trainers on the sideline. ... In the Jets' 27-17 loss to Seattle, cornerback Darrelle Revis sustained a thigh injury in the fourth quarter and didn't return for New York, and right guard Brian Winters left in the second quarter with a head injury after he slammed helmets with a Seahawks defender.


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SPEAKING


''I am shocked. I expect more out of our offense. Every year is different. It's a little deflating, man. You think you're really close and right when you think it's going to be easy, whether in sport or life, you get slapped in the face and humbled. It's disappointing, but that's just the story of life. It's never easy. This is hard, football is hard. It's not for the weary.'' - Jets wide receiver Brandon Marshall after his team's 27-17 loss to Seattle.

MNF - Giants at Vikings
October 2, 2016


The Vikings are the only 3-0 squad left in the NFL as the Giants invade U.S. Bank Stadium to close out Week 4. Minnesota has won each of the past two weeks as an underdog against NFC playoff teams from last season, as the Vikings are seeking their first 4-0 start since 2009. Meanwhile, New York looks to rebound after melting down in the second half of a home defeat to Washington in Week 3.


LAST WEEK


The Giants stormed out to a 2-0 start with a pair of victories by a combined four points against the Cowboys and Saints. However, New York couldn’t hold onto a 21-9 lead in last Sunday’s 29-27 home defeat to Washington as 3 ½-point home favorites. Eli Manning put up 350 yards through the air for New York, but the Giants’ quarterback was intercepted twice, including getting picked off in the final minutes of regulation. Odell Beckham, Jr. recorded his first 100-yard receiving game of the season, posting 121 yards on seven catches, but the Giants’ wideout has yet to score a touchdown in 2016.


Minnesota keeps rolling in spite of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater and running back Adrian Peterson sidelined. The Vikings capitalized off a Week 2 home underdog victory over the Packers to knock off the Panthers last Sunday. Minnesota cashed outright as six-point underdogs in a 22-10 triumph at Carolina, as the defense held the defending NFC champions scoreless in the final three quarters. The Vikings barely busted the 200-yard mark offensively, but received another non-offensive touchdown thanks to a 54-yard punt return for a score by Marcus Sherels.


HOME COOKING


The Vikings are playing their second game at brand new U.S. Bank Stadium, but Minnesota has fared well at home since the start of 2015. Minnesota posted a 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS record last season, while going 10-3 SU/ATS since November 2014 at home. The defense has been terrific in this stretch for the Vikings, limiting nine of the last 11 opponents to 18 points or less, while the UNDER has cashed eight times.


REVENGE MODE

The Giants were embarrassed the last time they faced the Vikings in December 2015, falling 49-17 as seven-point underdogs. Minnesota picked off Manning three times, while Beckham sat out due to a one-game suspension. Peterson rushed for 104 yards and a touchdown, as the Vikings relied on kicker Blair Walsh to connect on five field goals. The Giants have lost each of their past three road meetings with the Vikings since 2008, but New York did knock off Minnesota in a neutral site affair in 2010 when a snowstorm destroyed the room of the Metrodome.


MONDAY STRUGGLES


New York has had a case of the Mondays the last five seasons, putting together a 3-5 SU/ATS record since 2011 under the Monday night lights. In 2015, the Giants split a pair of Monday contests, but they were throttled as a road underdog at Philadelphia last October, 27-7. The Vikings haven’t been much better on Mondays, losing five straight since December 2009, including a 20-3 drubbing at San Francisco in last season’s opener.

HANDICAPPER’S CORNER


VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson points out Minnesota’s incredible success under their third year head coach, “Mike Zimmer probably has NFL Coach of the Year locked up already given the hurdles the team faced with the revolving quarterbacks and the loss of the team’s most notable player in Adrian Peterson. Since taking over in 2014, Zimmer’s Vikings are 27-9 ATS and you can add an 11-2 ATS mark in the preseason for the Vikings under Zimmer for an over 77 percent proposition supporting this team since the start of the 2014 season.”


New York will step up against a defensive foe as Nelson highlights the inferior defenses that “Big Blue” has faced, “The Giants have played three down-to-the-wire games this season to sit at 2-1, but they have faced defenses that rank 25th, 30th, and 31st in yards per play. This will be a big step up in class for an offense that produces yards but not always points with the Vikings rating as the best defense in the NFL in many categories at this point.”

PROPS - Courtesy of Sportsbook.ag


NEW YORK


Eli Manning Attempts 45 or More Passes 7/2
Eli Manning Over 2.5 Interceptions Thrown 5/1
Eli Manning Over 325 Passing Yards 2/1
Eli Manning Throws 28 or More Pass Completions 3/2
Eli Manning to Throw 3 or More TD Passes 2/1


Odell Beckham Over 125 Receiving Yards 9/4
Odell Beckham Over 150 Receiving Yards 6/1
Odell Beckham to Record 8 or More Receptions 5/4

MINNESOTA


Sam Bradford Attempts 45 or More Passes 7/1
Sam Bradford Over 1.5 Interceptions Thrown 2/1
Sam Bradford Over 300 Passing Yards 2/1
Sam Bradford Throws 25 or More Pass Completions 5/4
Sam Bradford to Throw 3 or More TD Passes 4/1


Stefan Diggs Over 100 Receiving Yards 7/4
Stefan Diggs to Record 7 or More Receptions 6/5

FUTURES


Minnesota began the season at 20/1 odds to win Super Bowl LI at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. However, that number has dipped to 10/1 following the 3-0 start. The Giants started the campaign at 40/1 odds, as the 2-1 start has helped improved those numbers down to 30/1.

Trends To Watch - October
September 30, 2016


October is a great month for sports fans alike with the MLB playoffs and the start of the NBA season. But nothing surpasses the excitement of the NFL and College Football during Halloween’s month.


That being said, listed below are the best and worst trends for NFL teams during the month of October. All we extracted from the 2016 PLAYBOOK Football Preview Guide magazine.


We’ll be back next month with the best and the worst that November has to offer.


Enjoy!


HOME TEAMS


Good: If there is one aspect you can count on this month, it is the Pittsburgh Steelers covering spreads at home. The Steelers have annually begun to hit their stride in October and particularly so at Heinz Field. The Steelers are 34-15 ATS and have Kansas City (10/2), the Jets (10/9) and New England (10/23) in the Steel City.


Keep an eye on (Good): Another high quality squad this loves home cookin' this month is Cincinnati, who is 19-10 against the oddsmakers. Too bad this year's schedule has so many road games with only Cleveland on the Oct. 23rd paying a visit.


Keep an eye on (Bad): For underperforming teams at home we find three that fit the bill. Chicago (18-29 ATS) is no surprise and neither is Jacksonville (14-23 ATS), but Seattle (16-26 ATS) with the 12th man certainly is.


The Bears have Detroit to start the month, the Jaguars in the middle of the month and Minnesota on Halloween.


Jacksonville justifiably gives up a home game for London trip and only has Oakland on the 23rd. The Seahawks have three away games and a bye, which means only Atlanta on the 16th are on Coffee Town.


AWAY TEAMS


Keep an eye on (Good): With the defending NFC champions Carolina off to a slow start, they will look to enhance 26-15 ATS road record against division foes Atlanta (10/2) and New Orleans (10/16).


The New York Giants always had a solid reputation at road warriors under former coach Tom Coughlin. The G-Men will be tested in back to back trips against Minnesota (10/3) and Green Bay (10/9) just six days apart.


Keep an eye on (Bad): Arizona will be challenged to improve pathetic 14-27 ATS mark this month, playing on first Thursday game at San Francisco and the day before Halloween in a NFC title tilt rematch at Carolina.


Cincinnati is 20-34 ATS away from home and its arduous early season slate continues with consecutive contests at Dallas and at New England beginning Oct.9th.


Seattle is only 19-35 ATS away from the Northwest this month and has a trio of sojourns to New Jersey (Jets) to start October and finishes things in the Arizona desert and in the bayou of Louisiana.


Tampa Bay has a rare Monday matchup at Carolina on the 10th and 13 days later in Frisco, and will be trying to better 16-28 ATS record.


FAVORITES


Keep an eye on (Good): The team from St. Louis is a sharp 21-11 handing out points and will try and see if that act continues in L.A. Only contest with Buffalo (10/9) might fit the bill.


San Francisco is 39-23 ATS, with nearly all of that accomplished with far better teams than this one. Possibly a date with Tampa Bay (10/23) could make this active angle.


Bad: The Bears are stinky 11-23 ATS as favorites and they catch Jacksonville (10/16) two weeks after their London trip.


Keep an eye on (Bad): With two games against New England this month, you know the Bills will not be favored in those, but assuredly they could better 20-30 ATS mark against the Niners at home on the 16th.


Jacksonville is another club not suited for handing out points, with only a 10-19 spread record. The Raiders in north Florida on the 23rd of the month is only possibility for winner.


Tampa Bay is none too pretty 16-26 ATS doling out digits. Contests at San Francisco and Oakland are only two games of the month where they could be favored.


We start this month not exactly sure what the status of Russell Wilson will be, but we do know Seattle is sickly 15-28 ATS as favored outfit.


UNDERDOGS


Good: Pittsburgh is remarkable 23-9 ATS this month in the role, but the only slightly conceivable chance they might be when New England and Tom Brady visit on the 23rd.


Keep an eye on (Good): Speaking of the Patriots, they are pretty good road dogs also at 22-14 ATS. They could be the pooch at the aforementioned Steelers. Somebody has to be, right?


Chicago is 28-17 ATS when receiving points and they will get a lot of practice this month to better that record, because the only opportunity they could be favored in five games is home against Jacksonville (10/16).


Mentioned the Giants as a quality road outfit and they have been even better as underdogs (23-13 ATS) and will be in that role in the Midwest at the Vikings and Packers.

Keep an eye on (Bad): San Francisco will be a underdog in first three games of the month against Dallas, Arizona and at Buffalo. The Tampa Bay tilt on the 23rd in Santa Clara is too be determined and nobody knows how the Niners will matchup against a bye week. Either way, the Niners are still 13-24 ATS.


We forget how bad Seattle used to be as 21-32 ATS record shows. However, only chance the Seahawks will be getting points is at Arizona (10/23).


DIVISION


Bad: Are the 49ers really 2-14 ATS against the NFC West in October? Yes they are and they will be home to Arizona (10/6).


In the same category is Cincinnati at 12-29 ATS and they will welcome Cleveland to the Queen City in the first of two battles of Ohio.


Keep an eye on (Bad): New Orleans has not been a good home division team for a numbers of seasons and is only 13-24 ATS in that situation against any NFC South foes. They have the Panthers in town on the 16th.


Indianapolis has not seen much success beating spreads versus AFC South foes at 15-23 ATS. Not much help coming for the Colts as they will playing all three opponents away from home, the first in London against Jacksonville.

Opening Line Report - Week 5
October 3, 2016


Another week of football, another rash of injuries.


Starting quarterbacks Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Trever Siemian all went down Sunday, prompting bookmakers to adjust their Week 5 numbers. Not all quarterback changes are created equal, of course, so we asked Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook oddsmaker Ed Salmons for his take on what this week’s injuries mean to next week’s lines.


Here’s a look at all the early point spreads for Week 5 of the NFL season. Lines are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET, with changes and differences among sports books also noted.


Thursday, Oct. 6


Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at San Francisco 49ers


Palmer is in concussion protocol, and Arizona coach Bruce Arians said the team will be "very, very careful" with the quarterback and that it will be difficult for Palmer to be ready on a short week. CG Technology was the only sports book in Las Vegas with a number on this game Sunday night, dealing the Cardinals as 1.5-point favorites.


Should Palmer get the green light, expect the line to be in the 4 to 4.5 range, Salmons said.


After a loss at home to the Rams, the Cardinals are 1-3 on the season.


“They’re having such a hard time scoring this year. Last year they didn’t have that problem,” said Salmons. “I’m not sure what it is, but Palmer’s definitely getting older. Toward the end of last year, he really struggled. In the playoffs, he was awful against Green Bay and terrible against Carolina, and that’s continued into this year.”


Sunday, Oct. 9


Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)


Houston’s only loss this season came at New England, yet the Westgate’s opening number of Minnesota -5 wasn’t big enough for the betting market’s tastes, and it was adjusted to -5.5. CG Technology, in fact, opened the game Minny -6.


Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)


There was a fairly even mix of 3.5s and 4s being dealt on this matchup of AFC also-rans.


New England Patriots (-10) at Cleveland Browns


Double-digit spreads are not common in the NFL. Double-digit spreads with the road team favored are downright rare. But ratings disparities don’t get any bigger than the Patriots with Tom Brady compared to the Browns with Cody Kessler.


CG on Sunday night hung 7.5 as its first number on this game, but that moved up the ladder to 9 within an hour.


New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)


The Westgate opened Pitt -7, but action on the underdog Jets prompted a move to 6.5. CG Technology went the other way, opening 6 and moving to 6.5.


Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)


While 3.5 was the most popular number on this matchup of regional interest, Baltimore bounced between -4 and -4.5 at CG.


Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) at Detroit Lions


This game opened a pick ‘em at the Westgate, but shot up to Philly -2.5 in under an hour. A few shops – the Wynn and CG – were dealing 1.5 as of this writing.


As short favorites in Chicago, the Lions lost their third straight game, giving the Bears their first win of the season. The undefeated Eagles will be fresh off a bye.


Said Salmons, “After the way Detroit looked today, the public will definitely be on Philadelphia, so Philadelphia had to be favorite in that game.”


Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)


The Westgate opened Indy -5, William Hill went -4, and the two shops met in the middle at 4.5. There were still plenty of +5s available for dog bettors Sunday night.

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-5.5)


Atlanta has won three straight and has looked good doing it, but before we get too excited about the Falcons, let’s remember they started the season 5-0 last season before a hard crash back to reality. A win at Denver, though, would go a long way to legitimize Dan Quinn’s club.


“This will be a good test,” said Salmons. “If any team can go to Denver and play with Denver, that can kind of prove what you’re about …. You would think if anyone can score against Denver, it would be Atlanta, but no one seems to score against these guys.”


As for the Broncos’ quarterback situation, there’s a difference of “maybe a point, at most” between Siemian and Paxton Lynch, according to Salmons. In contrast to the Cardinals and Panthers games, bookmakers were not reluctant to post a number of this game, and lines ranged from 5 to 6.5.

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams (-3 even)


The Bills have won two straight (vs. Arizona, at New England), and the Rams have won three in a row (vs. Seattle, at Tampa, at Arizona). CG opened this game -1.5 but moved to -2.5 after a few hours of Sunday night wagering. The Westgate offered the Rams -2.5 on its week-in-advance lines, but was quickly bet to -3 even, Salmons said.


San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4.5)


With a 3-1 start, Oakland has earned the respect of bettors, who pushed the Raiders from -3.5 to -4.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. Plenty of 4s remained on betting boards Sunday night in Vegas.


Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (pick ‘em)


This line varied from either side being a 1-point favorite as Week 5 wagering began. The game presents Dallas an opportunity to earn a quality win. The Cowboys are putting up points and winning on the road, but their resume so far includes wins over Washington, Chicago and San Francisco – not exactly a murderers’ row.


“Their defense doesn’t look like playoff-type defense,” said Salmons. “It looks like you can score points against them.”


The Bengals, meanwhile, pulled themselves to 2-2 with an easy win at home Thursday over Miami.


“Cincinnati still gets a lot of respect from the oddsmakers,” Salmons added. ”(Next Sunday’s line) is saying that Cincinnati is the better team.”


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-7)


Quite a tough spot the NFL schedule makers put the Giants in next week. New York, off a short week since they play at Minnesota on Monday night, has to travel to Green Bay, which had a bye in Week 4. Plus, it’s the second leg of a back-to-back road situation for the Giants.


To that add this: The Packers are 8-2 SU and 8-1-1 ATS after a bye under Mike McCarthy.


Monday, Oct. 10


Tampa Bay Bucs at Carolina Panthers (-6)


CG opened Carolina -6, but the book was alone in accepting wagers on this game Sunday night. Most shops are waiting to hear more about Newton, who was concussed by a big hit as he lollygagged into the end zone on a two-point conversion late in the Panthers’ loss to Atlanta.


Should Derek Anderson start in place of Newton, Carolina will probably lay less than a field goal next Monday night, according to Salmons.


Salmons said of the Panthers, who are off to a disappointing 1-3 start, “They’re the opposite of the Cardinals – they can’t stop anyone.”


He added, “There’s a lot history that shows the team that lost the Super Bowl that hadn’t done something in years has a drop off, and they’re definitely going through it right now. But it’s early in the year, I wouldn’t write any of these teams off.

Bettors strike back in Week 4
October 3, 2016


One week after the sports books scooped all chips, bettors struck back in Week 4 action as they collectively keyed on the winning sides of the Cowboys, Broncos and then the Steelers in the late-night finale.


"The morning was great with the Bills, Seahawks, Bears, Falcons and Texans," said Station Casinos sports book director Jason McCormick. "The afternoon, not so much. The Boncos were very bad and the Saints/Chargers 'over' was bad too."


McCormick said his 19 books were were sitting on a winning day up that point, but all the risk left over from the first 13 games was tied into the Steelers.


Every book in the city was sitting in the same boat with the late game showing a huge risk with two and three team parlays waiting to cash with Pittsburgh.


"It's all coming down to this last game," said MGM Resorts VP of race and sports Jay Rood while the Steelers were up 22-0 in the first quarter.


The side they all needed was the Chiefs, who lost 43-14 a Pittsburgh with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger tossing five TD passes and running back Le'Veon Bell making his season debut with 144 yards rushing.


"Gave away every cent on this game. And it was a lot of cents," said William Hill's head bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich.


William Hill's 108 sports books across Nevada reported that 88 percent of all tickets written on the point-spread were on Denver and that 83 percent of the cash was on them as well. It was the largest total for each on the day, and by a substantial margin. Pittsburgh had 73 percent of the tickets written on then and Dallas had 72 percent. That popular three-teamer at 6/1 odds did the books in.


The books were fortunate that they got a few early games to go their way or they'd be paying out lots of similar six-team parlays at 40/1 odds.


The Bears (+3) finally won a game this season beating the popular Lions, 17-14. The Bills (+7) gave the Patriots their first loss and it came in shutout fashion, 16-0 in Foxboro. New England gets quarterback Tom Brady back next week as it visits Cleveland.


On the surface, the Rams (+8.5) winning 17-13 at Arizona might seem like a good spot for the books, but 53 percent of the tickets written at William Hill were taking the points. They realized that something is wrong with the Cardinals who dropped to 1-3, along with Carolina -- they played each other in the NFC Championship game last season Panthers. Going back to last season, The Cardinals have gone 1-6 agains the spread in their last seven games. The Rams had the largest money-line payout of the day +375.


When the favorites go 7-7 on the day, it's usually a good mix for the books to have a nice day. And when all seven of those 'dogs covering win outright it's also usually good news just because that means several popular teasers and big money-line parlays were killed. But the Denver-Pittsburgh combination was just too much to overcome.


Let's chalk one up for the bettors as most books broke even or lost a little bit on Sunday.

Monday Night Football Best Bet


MONDAY, OCTOBER 3


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


NYG at MIN 08:30 PM


NYG +3.5


O 42.5

Close Calls - Week 4
October 4, 2016




Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are some of the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter last week in Week 4 of the NFL regular season.

Jacksonville Jaguars (PK) 30, Indianapolis Colts 27 (48½): While the Colts were favored most of the week, the spread on the AFC South clash in London sat below 3 and the outright winner was going to cover in most scenarios. 0-3 Jacksonville seemed in control early with a 17-6 lead at the half, but then only added field goals in the third quarter to lead 23-6. Indianapolis quickly turned the tide with a pair of long touchdown drives in the first eight minutes of the final frame and it was suddenly a three-point game. Jacksonville answered quickly with Allen Hurns taking a short gain back across the field all the way to the end zone and Jacksonville was in good shape up 10 with five minutes to go, with that score also clinching the ‘over’ as well. The Colts were back within three just two minutes later and Indianapolis had the ball back and turned in a 23-yard gain just ahead of the two-minute warning to keep both outcomes still in play. On 3rd-and-10, T.Y. Hilton came up just a yard short of the first down and the Colts failed on 4th-and-1 near midfield as both teams left London at 1-3.


Washington Redskins (-8½) 31, Cleveland Browns (48½) 20: The Browns may still be winless, but they have given a fight despite using four different quarterbacks already this season. After falling behind 14-0 in the first quarter, Cleveland rallied to take a 20-17 edge into the fourth quarter, making the heavy underdog cover look likely on a line that was as high as -10 early in the week. Washington took the lead early in the fourth quarter with a 91-yard touchdown drive and the next two Cleveland possessions ended in turnovers. Getting the ball in Cleveland territory after a Cody Kessler interception, the Redskins found the end zone five plays later on a Matt Jones run and that score was enough for narrow wins for Washington against the number and the ‘over’, although two late Cleveland drives did enter Washington territory, but not close enough for a field goal attempt that could have stolen the spread win.


Seattle Seahawks (PK) 27, New York Jets 17 (39½): The Seahawks led 14-10 at the half and 17-10 heading into the fourth quarter, getting a great game from Russell Wilson who was questionable to even play early in the week. The ‘under’ certainly looked promising at that point in the game, but Seattle had a four-play touchdown drive early in the fourth quarter to take a 24-10 advantage following an interception. The Seahawks had a 10-play drive that resulted in a punt to keep the scoring down, but on the next Jets offensive snap the Seahawks got the ball back with another interception. Seattle went backwards, but still managed a field goal to reach 37 points but the Jets would answer with a touchdown just ahead of the two-minute warning to clear the ‘over’.


Houston Texans (-4) 27, Tennessee Titans 20 (39½): The total on the this AFC South clash sat near 40 most of the week and that is where the scoring sat late in the third quarter after the Titans settled for a short field goal after a 13-play drive to make it 20-20, effectively winning for the ‘over’ at that point barring a five quarter tie. The spread result was still very much in play with a number that opened as high as -7 for the Texans before sliding all week. A Brock Osweiler interception kept the momentum with the Titans, but with less than a minute to go in the third quarter a Tennessee punt was returned 67 yards for a touchdown on a play that was probably aided by an illegal block in the back. That score proved to be the difference as Houston’s defense held strong on four remaining possessions for the Titans, including a drive that reached the 28-yard line inside of two minutes.

Oakland Raiders (+3) 28, Baltimore Ravens 27 (44): Oakland took a 14-3 lead early in this clash between resurgent AFC squads, but late in the third quarter, a Ravens touchdown put Baltimore within two points. Baltimore went for two after that score despite nearly 18 minutes of game clock remaining and the move didn’t pay off. The miss left just 26 total points on the board heading into the fourth quarter as the ‘under’ looked promising. The Raiders made the most of great field position after a fumble on a sack early in the fourth quarter and took a seemingly firm 21-12 two-score lead as an underdog. After an exchange of punts, the Ravens hit a 52-yard pass play to Steve Smith to get back within two and disaster struck the Raiders with a fumble deep in their own zone. A few plays later, the Ravens suddenly had a 27-21 edge, flipping the likely side and total results in the game. Getting the ball back with just over three minutes to go Derek Carr led a great drive, going 66 yards in just over a minute to take a 28-27 advantage as a slight underdog. Baltimore had plenty of time but stalled on the 50-yard line with four consecutive incomplete passes.


Dallas Cowboys (-1) 24, San Francisco 49ers 17 (44½) : After a pair of blowout losses, the 49ers opened as just a slight home underdog vs. Dallas with that line falling over the course of the week. The 49ers came out with great energy and had a 14-0 advantage early in the second quarter with two excellent scoring drives. Dallas scored two touchdowns in the final three minutes of the first half to even the game. The 49ers did produce a field goal to take the lead in the second half, but Dallas would find the end zone with a minute to go in the third quarter to lead by four. San Francisco seemed to get the boost it needed early in the fourth quarter with a solid punt return to near midfield, but on the very next play Blaine Gabbert took a deep shot that ended with an interception. Dallas turned the turnover into three points while burning a great deal of time off the clock. San Francisco had the chance to answer to put the spread result back in play as well as sealing the ‘over,’ but on 4th-and-6 from the Dallas 35-yard line, the 49ers fell just short.


New Orleans Saints (+3½) 35, San Diego Chargers 34 (54): An exciting offense-filled game was certainly expected in this game with one of the higher totals of the season, but the production was a bit limited early as San Diego led 24-14 at the half. The Saints would complete a short 48-yard drive for a touchdown in the third quarter to close within three points playing as an underdog of just above three-points most of the week. San Diego seemed to take control in the fourth quarter with 10 points added to lead by 13, hitting the ‘over’ in the process with a field goal with just over eight minutes to go. The Saints had to punt just two minutes later, but a fumble gave New Orleans the ball in great field position. Four plays later, New Orleans was within six. Incredibly, the Chargers would fumble again on its next offensive play and the Saints had another short field touchdown just after the two-minute warning, this time taking a one-point lead. A comeback attempt from the Chargers didn’t happen with a sack and a penalty on the first two plays and facing 4th-and-22, Philip Rivers was intercepted as the Saints got their first win in great comeback fashion.


Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) 43, Kansas City Chiefs 14 (48): There didn’t appear to be much drama in store Sunday night as everything went right for Pittsburgh with a 22-0 lead in the first quarter. Those on the ‘under’ got a bit of hope with punts filling up the second quarter, but in the final minute before halftime Pittsburgh connected for another seven points rather than a field goal, though a missed kick from the Chiefs helped the cause. Pittsburgh scored early in the third quarter to make it a 36-0 edge and the first scoring for the Chiefs didn’t come until the fourth quarter, sparked by a lousy Pittsburgh punt. The Kansas City touchdown put the total at 43 points, but Pittsburgh responded to seal the ‘over’ with about seven minutes to go in the game with another touchdown, with the Chiefs also adding another late score.


Minnesota Vikings (-3½) 24, New York Giants 10 (42½): The Vikings took command with a 14-0 lead halfway through the second quarter, but just before the half the Giants got on the board with a field goal. After missing an earlier kick Blair Walsh added three for Minnesota in the third quarter and with just 20 total points through three quarters the ‘under’ looked safe. The underdog Giants made it a bit interesting in the fourth quarter completing a 91-yard touchdown drive early in the final frame to close within seven. The Vikings had a pair of big 3rd down conversions and eventually answered with a touchdown with nine minutes to go to push the lead back to 14. There was still a lot of time remaining as the side and total results weren’t completely set just yet, but a New York drive to the Minnesota 36-yard line wound up with the Giants misfiring on 4th-and-5. It likely wouldn’t have impacted the result but the Giants also failed on a 4th-and-short attempt just after the two minute warning as the ‘under’ held for the now 4-0 Vikings.

Cards, Panthers struggling
October 4, 2016


Time To Panic For Backers Of Cardinals, Panthers?


The Carolina Panthers destroyed the Arizona Cardinals 49-15 in last season's NFC Championship Game as Carolina reached the second Super Bowl in franchise history.


There hasn't been an NFC title game rematch since the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers played three straight seasons from 1992-94. And it's not looking good for Carolina or Arizona to get back there this winter as both are a surprising 1-3 entering Week 5. Is it time to panic? Perhaps, because both teams' starting quarterback could miss this week.


The Panthers were absolutely shredded by Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan and receiver Julio Jones in Sunday's 48-33 loss at the Georgia Dome. Ryan threw for 503 yards and four touchdowns and Jones caught 12 passes for 300 yards and a score.


Both yardage marks were franchise records and it was the first time in NFL history that a quarterback had a 500-yard effort (there have been only 19 of them now) and a receiving teammate had 300 yards (only six of those) in the same game.


It's probably fair to question if Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman was smart this offseason to rescind the franchise tag on Pro Bowl cornerback Josh Norman and watch him walk away to the Washington Redskins for nothing.


Last year when Norman covered Jones he held him to nine catches and 113 yards in two games. Of the last seven teams to start 1-3 after making a Super Bowl appearance, only the 1996 Dallas Cowboys rallied to make the playoffs.


Meanwhile, Panthers quarterback and reigning NFL MVP Cam Newton is in the league's concussion protocol after strangely somewhat dancing casually toward the goal line on a 2-point conversion try against the Falcons and taking a big hit from Deion Jones.


Newton hasn't played near an MVP level yet this year and is being battered. Through the first four games, Newton has been sacked on 7.6 percent of his dropbacks and hit 28.7 percent of the time overall If he can't play Monday night against Tampa Bay, it will be Derek Anderson.


The Panthers are now essentially 2.5 games behind Atlanta in the NFC South and +165 to win the division again on BetOnline NFL odds. Carolina is +1100 to repeat as the conference champion.


Defending NFC West champion Arizona was upset 17-13 at home by the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday and sits in last place in the division with San Francisco.


Those two play at Levi's Stadium on Thursday night and the Cardinals surely aren't going to have QB Carson Palmer after he suffered a concussion in the fourth quarter of that loss. Palmer was an MVP candidate in 2015 but has really struggled the past two games with five combined interceptions. His season rating is just 81.9, which is 23rd in the NFL.


The offensive line is problem No. 1 as it's not protecting Palmer well and the running game is middle-of-the-pack despite the presence the mega-talented David Johnson. Dating back to last season and including the playoffs, the Cardinals have lost five of seven and turnovers haven been an issue. Remember how bad Palmer was in the NFC Championship Game?


Drew Stanton hasn't started a game since late in 2014 and should be under center in San Francisco in a must-win game. He's 5-3 as a starter with the Cardinals. Arizona is now +350 on BetOnline to repeat in the division and +900 to win the conference. The Cardinals visit the Panthers in Week 8.

Betting Recap - Week 4
October 3, 2016
.


Overall Notes


NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE WEEK 4 RESULTS


Wager Favorites-Underdogs
Straight Up 9-6
Against the Spread 9-6

Wager Home-Away
Straight Up 8-7
Against the Spread 8-7


Wager Totals (O/U)
Over-Under 8-7


The largest underdogs to win straight up

Rams (+9.5, +350) at Cardinals, 17-13
Saints (+4, +165) at Chargers, 35-34
Bills (+3.5, +165) at Patriots, 16-0
Bears (+3.5, +160) vs. Lions, 17-14
Raiders (+3.5, +155) at Ravens, 28-27


The largest favorite to cover


Bengals (-7.5) vs. Dolphins, 22-7
Redskins (-7.5) vs. Browns, 31-20
Texans (-4) vs. Titans, 27-20

Chief Concerns


-- The Kansas City Chiefs were manhandled in the visit to the Steel City Sunday night, as the Pittsburgh Steelers won and covered easily, 43-14. The Chiefs slipped to 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. Kansas City is averaging just 13.0 points per game (PPG) in two road outings while allowing 31.0 PPG. Kansas City has a much-needed bye in Week 5 before try head out on the road in Week 6 to meet the Oakland Raiders.


Hot in Hotlanta


-- The Atlanta Falcons added to the woes of the Carolina Panthers, embarrassing their defense and knocking 2015 NFL MVP QB Cam Newton (concussion) out of the game with a concussion. Falcons QB Matt Ryan and WR Julio Jones became the only pass-catch combo in NFL history to throw for 500 or more yards and rack up 300 or more yards receiving in the same game. The defending NFC Champion Panthers slipped to 1-3 SU/ATS, including 0-2 SU/ATS on the road. The Falcons grabbed a two-game lead in the NFC South, winning and covering for the third consecutive weekend. The 'over' is also a perfect 4-0 for the red-hot Falcs.
Total Recall


-- The 'over' ended up 8-7 after Monday's defensive battle between the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings. In six games between AFC combatants the 'under' finished 4-2. In four games featuring two NFC squads the 'under' ended up 1-4. In four games pitting AFC and NFC teams together, the 'over' ended up 3-1. The 'over' is 35-28 through the first four weekends, and each week has featured a majority of the games going 'over'.


-- There were six games in Week 4 with a total of 48 or more points and the 'over' ended up cashing in five of the outings. Vegas expected a high-scoring battle in the Detroit Lions-Chicago Bears (48) outing, but that never came into fruition and was the outlier. The highest scoring game of the weekend for the second straight weekend featured Atlanta, who throttled Carolina 48-33. Their game finished with 22.5 more points than the total, and their game in Week 3 went 23 points over the total of 54.


-- Two games featured totals of just 40 points, and each of those games went 'over', too. One of those games was the battle between the Tennessee Titans-Houston Texans. While their game featured just 10 total points in the second half, and none in the final quarter, the game still went over by a touchdown. It was the first 'over' result in four games for Houston this season.


-- The 'under' went 2-1 in three primetime games in Week 4. Officially, the 'over/under' is 7-6 (53.8%) through 13 games under the lights. In 2015, the over finished 20-28-1 (41.7%) in 49 primetime games. In 2014, the over went 33-17 (66%) in primetime games, and the over was 28-22 (56%) in 2013.


Injury Report


-- Broncos QB Trevor Siemian (shoulder) was forced out of the Week 4 game at Tampa Bay due to a shoulder injury, and the latest reports are that he suffered a sprained AC joint.


-- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer (concussion) left Sunday's game against Los Angeles in the second half after having his bell rung, and he was unable to return to the game. QB Drew Stanton finished up and might be counted on to start Thursday's game in San Francisco with a short week and not much time for Palmer to be cleared. RB Chris Johnson (groin) also left early due to a groin injury.


-- Panthers QB Cam Newton (concussion) was injured on helmet-to-helmet contact while attempting to get in on a two-point conversion and he has entered the league's mandated concussion protocol. He has an extra day to be cleared by an independent neurologist with the team not scheduled to play until next Monday against the Bucs.


-- Steelers WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (shouder) scored a touchdown Sunday night vs. Kansas City, but was forced out with a shoulder ailment.

Looking Ahead


-- The 49ers host the Cardinals on Thursday night in Week 5, and Arizona might be without their starting signal caller. Since the start of the 2009 season San Francisco is 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS in their past 14 games against Arizona, including 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in seven matchups at home.


-- The Raiders host the division rival Chargers Sunday as they look to move to 4-1 SU/ATS on the season. Oakland swept the season series with the Bolts last year for the first time since the 2010 season. That's the last time the Raiders won three in a row in the season (2010-11). The Raiders are 3-3 SU over their past six meetings with the Bolts in the Black Hole, and 4-3 ATS over the past seven home meetings. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings overall, and 10-4 ATS over the past 14 in this series.


-- In the third and final divisional game of Week 5, the Buccaneers travel to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to battle the Panthers Monday night. The Panthers have won six straight in this series, going 5-1 ATS during the span. They have won four of the past five meetings in Charlotte, and they're 5-3 ATS in their past eight at home against the Bucs. Carolina is 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS in the past 15 meetings overall against Tampa Bay.

Thursday's Top Action
October 4, 2016


NFL Week 5 Thursday Night Football Betting Preview
Arizona Cardinals (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU; 1-3 ATS)


Sportsbook.ag Odds: Arizona (-4); Total set at 42.5


Week 5 of the NFL season gets kicked off with a NFC West showdown between a pair of one-win teams. Many bettors can't be too surprised to see the San Francisco 49ers at 1-3 SU entering this game, but Arizona's 1-3 SU start has left many shocked as the Cardinals were a popular pick to go all the way this year.


The 1-3 SU start doesn't do Arizona any favors in that regard, and with QB Carson Palmer potentially on the shelf for this one with a concussion, can the Cardinals begin to climb out of this early season hole they've dug?


Arizona's early season struggles this year have been in large part because of the ineptitude of their offense. The Cardinals have been able to move the ball well as they rank 7th in total yards this year, but all those yards haven't turned into many points aside from their Week 2 blowout win over Tampa.


Whether it was timely missed field goals, or costly turnovers at the wrong time (10 turnovers this year for Arizona), this team that made it to the NFC Championship game a year ago has looked much worse just a few months later. That is surprising given nearly all 22 of Arizona's starters from a year ago returned, but home losses to a Tom Brady-less Patriots team and the LA Rams have book-ended a disastrous first four weeks for the Cardinals.


San Francisco was expected to be one of the NFL's bottom feeders this year and have lost three straight (SU and ATS) entering this Thursday night game. They do however, continue to be a much better home team than they are away from home and home teams on TNF already have a bit of an advantage because they don't have to travel on a short week.


But the strength of the 49ers is their defense and they took a big hit this past week with LB Navarro Bowman lost for the year. His absence could open things up more for opponents who have already put 26.8 points per game up on the 49ers. With Arizona's offense looking to get back into the groove with whomever they start at QB, San Francisco's defense could be in tough this week without their leader Bowman.


Until word comes out on Carson Palmer's status for this game, it's tough to consider either side bet here. Arizona is going to get plenty of support from the majority of bettors regardless of who they throw out there because they are perceived to be the much better team.


In fact, many will argue that Arizona's early season struggles actually greats a bit of line value on them at this lower number because of how different these two teams were projected to finish the 2016 campaign. But I wouldn't rush to the window to take the Cardinals just yet as these struggles they appear to be having may actually something that could persist throughout the year, making them not nearly as good as everyone believed them to be.


I'm also not looking to bet on the 49ers here either as they aren't exactly one of the best teams in the league on either side of the ball. On paper they don't have the overall depth of talent that the Cardinals have and even at home on a short week, this line seems a little too low to grab the points with a bad group like San Francisco.


Instead, I'm looking at the total here and seeing the consensus numbers at VegasInsider.com showing over 80% of the early money on the low side of this total and wondering why.


NFC West games of years past used to be defensive slugfests but that's not the case anymore. Obviously, Palmer's status has something to do with that early support on the 'under' too, but this total opened up at 42 and has moved up a half-point even with all that early action the other way.


San Francisco is 6-0 O/U after giving up 350+ yards like they did to Dallas last week, and the Cardinals are on an 8-3 O/U run in their last 11 away from home. The Bowman injury for San Fran really limits some of the calls that defense can make, and with both teams prone to turning the ball over, we could see a few short fields for both sides.


I expect to see both teams put up multiple TD's in this one and if we can get three from each side we've got our winner siding with that early line move on this total.

Best Bet: Over 42.5 points

Tech Trends - Week 5
October 4, 2016


THURSDAY, OCT. 6


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO (CBS/NFL Network, 8:30 p.m. ET)


Arians has played close games at Santa Clara the past two seasons and even lost at end of 2014 when QB-poor. Cards were still 17-7 vs. line on road in reg season for Arians prior to loss at Buffalo. Chip teams "over" 7-3 last nine since mid 2015.


Tech Edge: Slight to Cards and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

SUNDAY, OCT. 9


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


HOUSTON at MINNESOTA (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


After Monday win over G-Men, Mike Zimmer's Vikes now 18-3 vs. line since LY! Vikes also "under" 23-14 last 37. O'Brien 4-7 as dog since last season, also "under" 7 of last 9 since late 2015.


Tech Edge: Vikings and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


TENNESSEE at MIAMI (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Titans now 9-30-3 vs. spread since late 2013, and just 3-10 SU and vs. spread for Mularkey. Titans were mauled at Miami LY, but Dolphins only 6-19 vs. line their last 25 since late 2014 and 2-6 last 8 as chalk. Miami "under" 8-4 last 12 since mid 2015.


Tech Edge: Slight to "under," based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


NEW ENGLAND at CLEVELAND (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Brady returns and Belichick vs. his old team. Belichick actually 0-2 vs. line last two vs. Browns, though teams have only played twice since 2010. Belichick only 4-13 as visiting chalk since 2013! Hue Jackson teams (Oakland in 2011 & Brownies TY) "over" 9-2 last 11.
Tech Edge: Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


NY JETS at PITTSBURGH (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Jets were 5-0-1 last six as dog (3-0-1 for Bowles) prior to losses last 2 weeks. Tomlin 8-2-1 last 11 at home in reg season.


Tech Edge: Slight to Jets, based on extended team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


WASHINGTON at BALTIMORE (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Battle of the Beltways! Skins are 6-2 last eight as dog, however. Also "over" last nine since a year ago. Ravens only 2-10-2 last 14 as reg season chalk.


Tech Edge: Skins and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


PHILADELPHIA at DETROIT (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Birds 3-0 SU and vs. line, 2-0-1 "under" with the new defense.


Tech Edge: Eagles and "under," based on current team and "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


CHICAGO at INDIANAPOLIS (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)


Bears on 2-7 SU and spread skid for Fox since late 2015, but did win last week vs. Lions Fox also "over" 5-3-1 last nine since late 2015. Pagano 3-7 last ten as chalk.


Tech Edge: Slight to "over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


ATLANTA at DENVER (FOX, 4:05 p.m. ET)


Falcs have won and covered last three as road dog since late 2015. Falcs also "over" first four TY after "under" 16-3 previous 19 on board. Falcs 7-1 as dog for Dan Quinn since LY. Denver "over" 16-8-2 at home since 2013. Broncos now 6-0-1 last six on board since late 2015.


Tech Edge: "Over," based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


BUFFALO at LOS ANGELES (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Rams "under" 15-5-1 last 21 since late 2014, Bills "under" 6-2 last eight as visitor.


Tech Edge: "Under, " based on "totals" trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Road teams have covered last three meetings, reviving a series road trend that once endured for many years. Bolts 19-9-1 in role since 2012. Raiders only 2-7 last 9 as host vs. line, no covers last four as home chalk, dating to 2013.

Tech Edge: Chargers, based on team and recent series road trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


CINCINNATI at DALLAS (CBS, 4:25 p.m. ET)


Marvin Lewis was 7-0-1 vs. line away last season before failing to cover first two away this term. Dallas just 6-14-2 vs. line last 22 at Arlington.


Tech Edge: Bengals, based on team trends.


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


NY GIANTS at GREEN BAY (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)


After loss to Vikes on Monday, G-Men 2-7-1 vs. line since late 2015, and now 0-3-1 vs. spread under Ben McAdoo. Though Eli has covered three straight vs. GB. NY "over" 9-5 last 14 away. Pack "under" 7-2 at home since LY.

Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on series trends.


MONDAY, OCT. 10


NFL Matchups NFL Matchups


TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA (ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET)


Cam won and covered big in both meetings LY vs. Bucs and now has won last six SU in series (5-1 vs. line in those). Panthers 8-3 as home chalk since LY.


Tech Edge: Panthers, based on series and team trends.

NFL opening line report: Brady's return has Patriots pegged as big road faves


“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”


Week 5 of the NFL season is on deck, and not a minute too soon for the New England Patriots. We talk about the opening lines on a few games this week with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Peter Childs, risk management supervisor for offshore site Sportsbook.ag.


New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+7.5)


Tom Brady returns under center for the Patriots, after a four-game suspension for Deflategate, though the Pats went 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) in his absence. The lone SU loss came Sunday, when New England got shut out at home against Buffalo 16-0 as a 3.5-point favorite.


Cleveland remains winless on the season at 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS. The Browns lost to Washington 31-20 as a 7.5-point road underdog Sunday and haven’t won SU since Week 14 of the 2015 season.


“We thought as low as 7 and as high as 10, and we settled for 7.5,” Simbal said of the opening line at CG’s books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M. Bettors got on that number pretty quickly on Sunday night, moving New England out to -9.


Sportsbook.ag went to double digits right from the get-go.


“We opened the Patriots -10, the highest road favorite this season,” Childs said. “The Pats get Brady back, and he makes his season debut against arguably the worst defense in the NFL. The Browns are 0-4 and off yet another game where they held a second-half lead. The Browns have been competitive, but just can’t close.


“After our line had been open for only 15 minutes, literally every bet we’d written was on the Patriots.”


Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5)


Dallas hasn’t had Tony Romo this season, but is hardly worse for the wear at this point. The Cowboys (3-1 SU and ATS) topped San Francisco 24-17 Sunday as a 1-point road fave, with rookie quarterback Dak Prescott throwing for 245 yards and two TDs, and rookie running back Ezekiel Elliott rushing for 138 yards and a TD.


Cincinnati played the Thursday nighter in Week 4 and got a 22-7 home win over Miami giving 7.5 points.


“I have this power-rated as a pick ’em, but no question, they will bet the Cowboys here at home, so we opened them -1.5 and we’ll see what our bettors do with that number,” Childs said. “So far, the early action is actually on the Bengals, so we’ve already gone to -1 on the Cowboys.


“Both teams are coming off nice wins and covers, and both have plenty of momentum coming into this game. The Bengals have extra rest, having played on Thursday.”


Indeed, with Cincy getting a couple extra days’ rest, CG installed them as a road favorite.


“We ranged anywhere from Bengals -3.5 to Cowboys -1.5, and settled for opening Bengals -1,” Simbal said.


New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-6.5)


The Giants make their second straight trip to the upper Midwest, and on a short week no less. New York will wrap up Week 4 when it plays at Minnesota in the Monday nighter, and will be in prime time again Sunday night at Lambeau Field.


Meanwhile, Green Bay (2-1 SU and ATS) had its bye in Week 4 after a 34-27 home win over Detroit as a 6-point chalk in Week 3.


“The Giants will be coming off a tough road game in Minnesota and a short week heading to Green Bay, so instead of 4.5-5, we went 6.5,” Simbal said.


Sportsbook.ag went a tick higher, opening Green Bay at -7.


“There’s little to no action on the game so far,” Childs said. “Very tough spot for the Giants, playing on the road Monday night and with a short week, having to travel again to Green Bay, which is coming off a bye. It’s a great spot for the Packers, a bad spot for the Giants, and it’s reflected in our opener as we inflated the Packers a bit.”

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-6)


Defending Super Bowl champion Denver continues to roll with new quarterbacks. On Sunday, second-year starter Trevor Siemian hurt his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the second quarter at Tampa Bay, but the Broncos (4-0 SU and ATS) still coasted 29-17 as 3.5-point road favorites.


Atlanta (3-1 SU and ATS) has won and covered three in a row, including a big victory over defending NFC champion Carolina, 48-33 catching 2.5 points at home Sunday.


“It’s a tough number to set with Siemian not finishing the Broncos’ game against the Bucs,” Childs said. “Regardless, the Broncos’ strength is their defense, and we made them a solid 6-point favorite. If Siemian is a go against the Falcons, we’ll get to 6.5 real quick. If he’s out, this line should creep down to 5.5 or 5, but it’s really tough to figure out.


“We’ve got the game circled and are only taking half-limits on this game.”


CG also proceeded with caution, though it opened the game a point higher.


“This was our most debated game,” Simbal said. “We went with Broncos -7.”


That led to some quick action on the Falcons, with the line moving to -5 by late Sunday night.

NFL
Long Sheet


Week 5


Thursday, October 6


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ARIZONA (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 3) - 10/6/2016, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Sunday, October 9


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HOUSTON (3 - 1) at MINNESOTA (3 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in dome games since 1992.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MIAMI (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 5-21 ATS (-18.1 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-15 ATS (-13.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-68 ATS (-28.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 51-77 ATS (-33.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ENGLAND (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (0 - 4) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 175-134 ATS (+27.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY JETS (1 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
There are no T


Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WASHINGTON (2 - 2) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 55-78 ATS (-30.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


PHILADELPHIA (3 - 0) at DETROIT (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CHICAGO (1 - 3) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 3) - 10/9/2016, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 44-66 ATS (-28.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (3 - 1) at DENVER (4 - 0) - 10/9/2016, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
DENVER is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BUFFALO (2 - 2) at LA RAMS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 13-26 ATS (-15.6 Units) as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
BUFFALO is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 174-215 ATS (-62.5 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
LA RAMS is 57-84 ATS (-35.4 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SAN DIEGO (1 - 3) at OAKLAND (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 91-64 ATS (+20.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
SAN DIEGO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 54-78 ATS (-31.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
OAKLAND is 24-46 ATS (-26.6 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
OAKLAND is 70-98 ATS (-37.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OAKLAND is 35-74 ATS (-46.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 2-2 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CINCINNATI (2 - 2) at DALLAS (3 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at GREEN BAY (2 - 1) - 10/9/2016, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 88-63 ATS (+18.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in road games against NFC North division opponents since 1992.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Monday, October 10


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


TAMPA BAY (1 - 3) at CAROLINA (1 - 3) - 10/10/2016, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.


Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 4-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

NFL


Week 5


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Thursday, October 6


8:25 PM
ARIZONA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Arizona's last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games at home
San Francisco is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona




Sunday, October 9


1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. DETROIT
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia
Detroit is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Philadelphia


1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. PITTSBURGH
NY Jets are 8-15 SU in their last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home


1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Washington is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Washington
Baltimore is 2-10-1 ATS in its last 13 games at home


1:00 PM
HOUSTON vs. MINNESOTA
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games
Minnesota6-1-1 SU in its last 8 games
Minnesota10-3-1 SU in its last 14 games at home


1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tennessee's last 16 games when playing Miami
Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 16 games when playing Tennessee
Miami is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games when playing Tennessee


1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CLEVELAND
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games when playing New England
Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England


1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Chicago is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Indianapolis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago


4:05 PM
ATLANTA vs. DENVER
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Denver
Denver is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 9 games when playing Atlanta


4:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. LOS ANGELES
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games on the road
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Los Angeles's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Los Angeles is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Buffalo


4:25 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Diego is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 9 games when playing at home against San Diego


4:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Cincinnati's last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


8:30 PM
NY GIANTS vs. GREEN BAY
NY Giants are 3-7-1 SU in their last 11 games ,
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Giants




Monday, October 10


8:30 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Tampa Bay's last 16 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina's last 16 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up


Week 5




Thursday's Game


Cardinals (1-3) @ 49ers (1-3)— QB Palmer is in concussion protocol, is doubtful for this game; in 6+ years in NFL, backup QB Stanton is 7-5 as a starter. Redbirds turned ball over 10 times (-8) in last two games with only three TDs; they lost 33-18 (-4) in only road game, at Buffalo. Cards are 8-4 as road favorites under Arians. 49ers allowed 35.7 pts/game in losing last three games, giving up 165.7 yds/game on ground, 443.7 TY/game. Kelly is 1-3 as an NFL home dog. Arizona beat 49ers 47-7/19-13 LY; they’re still just 4-10 in last 14 series games, 1-6 in last seven visits to Bay Area. Arizona is 15-3-1 vs spread under Arians in games with spread of 3 or less points. NFL-wide, home underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in divisional games.


-------------------------


NFL
Short Sheet


Week 5


Thurs – Oct. 6


Arizona at San Francisco, 8:25 PM ET
Arizona: 45-27 ATS after 2 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse
San Francisco: 9-1 UNDER as a home underdog

Wiseguys are advising that these Week 5 NFL lines are going to move


The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0.


Spread to bet now


Atlanta at Denver (-6)


Would it surprise you to learn that the Broncos are one of just two 4-0 ATS teams in the NFL (Minnesota is the other one)? The defending Super Bowl champs are unbeaten and have already taken control in the AFC West at 4-0. Plus, Win No. 4 came after new QB Trevor Siemian was sent to the sidelines with a shoulder in the first half of Sunday’s win at Tampa Bay. Replacement Paxton Lynch became the latest unheralded QB to get the job done, finishing up with 170 yards passing and one TD – and, most importantly – zero turnovers. The A+ Broncos' defense did the rest, and Denver now begins a stretch of three games in the next 15 days (Falcons, Thursday game at San Diego, and home vs. Houston). This line has been moving up and down from 4.5 to 6, so if you like Atlanta and the points, best move before books make another adjustment.


Spread to wait on


Arizona at San Francisco (+3)


Can things get any worse for the Cardinals? They’re 1-3 and will be in San Francisco Thursday night on a short week after getting beaten by the Rams this past Sunday. And BTW, QB Carson Palmer is out as the team tries to determine the severity of a head injury suffered in the LA game. Coach Bruce Arians claims the Cards aren’t panicking, but this is as close to a must-win game as they come because Arizona has the likes of Seattle, Carolina, Minnesota and Atlanta on the schedule before the weather gets cool and tolerable in the desert. This line opened at SF +2.5 but moved to 3. It likely will move again, or books might make an adjustment on the vig before kickoff.


Total to watch


New England at Cleveland (46.5)


All eyes will be on Tom Brady as he returns from the four-game Deflategate suspension, and rightfully so. The Patriots will also probably take the choke chain off TE Rob Gronkowski, who has been targeted just three times in the three games he has played. NE will have its full offensive arsenal for the first time after dumbing down the playbook and trying to establish a running game to simplify things for third-string QB Jacoby Brissett. Sophisticated bettors might want to consider hitting the second-half under in this one because the Browns have scored a total of just 17 points combined in the second halves of games this season.

NFL Week 5 lines that make you go hmmm...


Oakland opened -4 at home to San Diego, but Peter Korner believes this line will close around Raiders -6 come Sunday.


Houston Texans at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)


A surprising Houston team heads to face a just as surprising Minnesota team, in what looks like one of the better games to watch in Week 5. What caught my eye was the weak opening line (Vikings -5.5) at a few of the sportsbooks taking the lead in this one. I had this nailed at Minnesota -7 after Monday night’s performance and think anyone below the key number is just giving a few plays away from the start.


The combination of a stalled Houston offense and the aggressive defensive output by Minnesota leads me to believe the home favorite can keep a steady distance on the scoreboard to validate the higher number.


Though I’m impressed with Houston’s record, I’m wary of the level of competition it’s faced so far. The Vikings are playing at a higher level against better opponents. The value here is taking the Vikings early in the week before this gets to a touchdown.


Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+2.5, 46)


Philadelphia is at Detroit and you know where that takes me. Detroit has been underachieving since Week 1. A dismal showing at Chicago doesn’t give me any sense that this team has the talent to take on an undefeated Philadelphia squad that comes in rested and with a head of steam.


We’ll have the fortunate advantage of knowing this line won’t be moved too far from the key three so finding that -2.5 early in the week will be to your advantage. I don’t care for the “due factor” so waiting for a Detroit team to suddenly turn it around is not on the agenda.


Betting the good teams against throwing our money at bad teams doesn’t make sense. So you would be wise to ride these two opposite waves and hope the consistent results of these teams continues.


San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (-4, 50.5)


The Chargers been playing the types of games that can break a team’s spirit. After the past week’s collapse against the Saints, San Diego has now lost three games it possibly should have won. Conversely, the Raiders have been winning with solid play, a sense of cool and gaining momentum now that they stand at 3-1 on the season.


The line is surprisingly low at -4 and seems to me the value is with playing early in the week as the money is destined to fall on the winning home favorites. I see this closing at no less than -6 by game time. This looks like a high-scoring game, as the Chargers are equally capable of scoring as they are to give up big points to the Raiders. The higher the scoring is in a game, the less likely a low number will affect the outcome.


This is another contest in which bettors may prefer to ride the coattails of the winning team and not stand around waiting for the lesser one to turn things around. Hop on the Silver and Black early before this becomes a non-play.


Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 43.5)


Tennessee is at Miami in what looks like the dud game of the week. Nothing like a play on one of these teams to increase interest, with both sitting at 1-3 SU.


Miami’s damage has largely been on the road with its lone win against Cleveland at home. Tennessee beat who it had to (Detroit) but has lost to quality opponents whose combined records stands at 9-2 to date. I see nothing but red flags with Miami and sense the team is dragging after its poor play.


Conversely, Tennessee has nothing to be sorry about and has been quite competitive. The Titans may see this game as a chance to pick up a big win early in the season and bring their record to within string distance of playoff bound teams with plenty of schedule left.


That hook seems surprising to me and a take, if you like a team with the incentive to play this weekend. I had this game closer to -1 and certainly no higher than -2. It’s another game in which the money seems to be destined one way by game time. We don’t see this going up so, if you like Tennessee, grab the hook and enjoy a good chance of the straight up underdog win.