[h=1]Early betting look for Week 6: Why it's time to sell UCLA[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
Week 5 confirmed Tennessee is the luckiest team in America, while North Carolina won a second straight cliffhanger and Wisconsin earned a key moral victory without its best player. Clemson-Louisville lived up to the hype, Western Michigan made a huge statement and Oregon and Texas moved closer to inevitable coaching changes.
The Vols now have the nation's second-longest winning streak, but this week we'll take a look at their other 11-game streak. We also check-in on some Pac-12 stocks, contemplate why the oddsmakers like Alabama over Arkansas so much more now than in the summer and examine how one coach has turned around a lopsided Big Ten rivalry without even winning a game.
[h=2]Portfolio checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
USC Trojans
Rumblings are growing louder about Clay Helton's job security, and while we'd generally agree that this staff is not equipped to win USC's fair share of Pac-12 championships, we do like the chemistry on this year's squad. Couple that with the development of quarterback Sam Darnold, who looks like a star in the making and absolutely the right choice to start over Max Browne, and you've got a South division contender that could still turn in a 10-3 season.
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[h=2]Sell[/h]
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins finally covered a game, though they needed to knock a handful of Arizona's offensive starters out to do it. Jim Mora is now just 11-20 ATS since the start of the 2014 season, and we're still not buying that the results will ever match the talent. UCLA might get lucky and lose Mora to LSU, but the deeper problem remains one of the nation's weakest athletic administrations.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Todd Graham lost more than half of his coaching staff this past offseason, and now starting quarterback Manny Wilkins is down. The defense has now allowed more than 40 points in five straight games against power-conference opposition, and has been smoked for more than 625 yards per game in that span. The Sun Devils are 4-1 and 3-2 ATS so far, but that won't last long if the defense can't put a big dent in that whopping 625 yards per game.
Purdue Boilermakers
We warned that the Cincinnati game was a must-win for Darrell Hazell to remain coach of the Boilers beyond this season, and that flop converted the last of the hopeful believers. Purdue followed an open date with a narrow win over a weak Nevada team and then a blowout loss at Maryland.
By every reasonable measure this should be Hazell's best team, but after four years the product still isn't even close to winning football and the fanbase has now checked out. Purdue won't be favored in any of its remaining games, and a coaching change is already assured at this point.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 6[/h]
Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks
This game marks the 18th time since Nick Saban arrived at Alabama that his team will face a ranked opponent in a true road game. Favored in 14 of those 17 prior games, Alabama is 12-5 straight up and 8-8-1 ATS. The average price has been Alabama -4.5, and the average score Alabama 28-20.
This game carries by far the biggest road favorite price yet, as the Tide hasn't laid more than 10 points in any of the previous 17. The reason for the monster number? Well, it's apparently all about adjustments made so far this season, as the August price on this game was merely Alabama -8.5. Bama is 2-2-1 ATS and Arkansas is 2-2 ATS against FBS teams. Both are right where they started the season in our power ratings, so while we can't say for sure whether the oddsmakers have severely downgraded the Hogs or just fallen in love with the Tide, the adjustment appears unwarranted while the original price of 8.5 looks closer to reality.
Saban has won all nine meetings with Arkansas, but the Pigs have led or been within a field goal in the fourth quarter in four of them, including the most recent two.
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels(-3)
The Hokies have dominated since their meltdown at Bristol, blasting Boston College and East Carolina by a combined 103-17. Now coming off an open date, this team is clicking under its new staff and looks like a legitimate ACC contender.
North Carolina, by contrast, is about as far from "fresh off an open date" as you can get, having notched a draining last-second victory for the second straight week. A touchdown pass with two seconds left sealed a comeback win against Pittsburgh in Week 4, then on Saturday the Heels took all game to gradually blow a three-touchdown lead versus Florida State. They finally fell behind with just 23 seconds to go, only to rally and hit a walkoff 54-yard field goal to win it. The last two weeks have provided this team enough drama for a full season.
Virginia Tech has controlled this series since joining the ACC, but most of the games have been close. Whether this one is competitive depends largely on the degree to which the Tar Heels are out of gas, and that's one of the most important questions we'll be trying to answer this week.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]
Tennessee has the nation's second-longest winning streak at 11 games, but the Vols have also lost 11 straight against the SEC West. They're just 2-9 ATS during that streak, and have lost by an average score of 38-14. As for their current 11-game win streak, it hasn't exactly been domination. Tennessee outgained just one of its opponents by more than 150 yards in that stretch, and that was lowly North Texas in a 24-0 win as 41-point chalk last November.
The last time Ohio State failed to beat Indiana was 1990, when the teams played to a 27-27 tie. The Buckeyes won the next 16 games in the series, with Indiana covering just three and scoring no more than 17 points in any of them. Then Kevin Wilson arrived in Bloomington. The former Oklahoma playcaller hasn't beaten the Buckeyes yet, but his offense has changed the dynamic of the series. Indiana has covered all five meetings with Wilson on the sideline, and has averaged 410 yards of offense, with 173 of that on the ground.
Quarterback injuries are affecting several numbers this week. Texas Tech's visit to Kansas State and East Carolina's road date with South Florida are both off the board, due to the uncertain status of Tech's Patrick Mahomes and ECU's Philip Nelson. Cincinnati's Hayden Moore, Akron's Thomas Woodson and Arizona State's Manny Wilkins are three more signal-callers whose status is uncertain. Florida's Luke del Rio and Colorado's Sefo Liufau could return soon as well.
Special to ESPN.com
Week 5 confirmed Tennessee is the luckiest team in America, while North Carolina won a second straight cliffhanger and Wisconsin earned a key moral victory without its best player. Clemson-Louisville lived up to the hype, Western Michigan made a huge statement and Oregon and Texas moved closer to inevitable coaching changes.
The Vols now have the nation's second-longest winning streak, but this week we'll take a look at their other 11-game streak. We also check-in on some Pac-12 stocks, contemplate why the oddsmakers like Alabama over Arkansas so much more now than in the summer and examine how one coach has turned around a lopsided Big Ten rivalry without even winning a game.
[h=2]Portfolio checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
Rumblings are growing louder about Clay Helton's job security, and while we'd generally agree that this staff is not equipped to win USC's fair share of Pac-12 championships, we do like the chemistry on this year's squad. Couple that with the development of quarterback Sam Darnold, who looks like a star in the making and absolutely the right choice to start over Max Browne, and you've got a South division contender that could still turn in a 10-3 season.
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
[h=2]Sell[/h]
The Bruins finally covered a game, though they needed to knock a handful of Arizona's offensive starters out to do it. Jim Mora is now just 11-20 ATS since the start of the 2014 season, and we're still not buying that the results will ever match the talent. UCLA might get lucky and lose Mora to LSU, but the deeper problem remains one of the nation's weakest athletic administrations.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Todd Graham lost more than half of his coaching staff this past offseason, and now starting quarterback Manny Wilkins is down. The defense has now allowed more than 40 points in five straight games against power-conference opposition, and has been smoked for more than 625 yards per game in that span. The Sun Devils are 4-1 and 3-2 ATS so far, but that won't last long if the defense can't put a big dent in that whopping 625 yards per game.
Purdue Boilermakers
We warned that the Cincinnati game was a must-win for Darrell Hazell to remain coach of the Boilers beyond this season, and that flop converted the last of the hopeful believers. Purdue followed an open date with a narrow win over a weak Nevada team and then a blowout loss at Maryland.
By every reasonable measure this should be Hazell's best team, but after four years the product still isn't even close to winning football and the fanbase has now checked out. Purdue won't be favored in any of its remaining games, and a coaching change is already assured at this point.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 6[/h]
Alabama Crimson Tide (-13.5) at Arkansas Razorbacks
This game marks the 18th time since Nick Saban arrived at Alabama that his team will face a ranked opponent in a true road game. Favored in 14 of those 17 prior games, Alabama is 12-5 straight up and 8-8-1 ATS. The average price has been Alabama -4.5, and the average score Alabama 28-20.
This game carries by far the biggest road favorite price yet, as the Tide hasn't laid more than 10 points in any of the previous 17. The reason for the monster number? Well, it's apparently all about adjustments made so far this season, as the August price on this game was merely Alabama -8.5. Bama is 2-2-1 ATS and Arkansas is 2-2 ATS against FBS teams. Both are right where they started the season in our power ratings, so while we can't say for sure whether the oddsmakers have severely downgraded the Hogs or just fallen in love with the Tide, the adjustment appears unwarranted while the original price of 8.5 looks closer to reality.
Saban has won all nine meetings with Arkansas, but the Pigs have led or been within a field goal in the fourth quarter in four of them, including the most recent two.
Virginia Tech Hokies at North Carolina Tar Heels(-3)
The Hokies have dominated since their meltdown at Bristol, blasting Boston College and East Carolina by a combined 103-17. Now coming off an open date, this team is clicking under its new staff and looks like a legitimate ACC contender.
North Carolina, by contrast, is about as far from "fresh off an open date" as you can get, having notched a draining last-second victory for the second straight week. A touchdown pass with two seconds left sealed a comeback win against Pittsburgh in Week 4, then on Saturday the Heels took all game to gradually blow a three-touchdown lead versus Florida State. They finally fell behind with just 23 seconds to go, only to rally and hit a walkoff 54-yard field goal to win it. The last two weeks have provided this team enough drama for a full season.
Virginia Tech has controlled this series since joining the ACC, but most of the games have been close. Whether this one is competitive depends largely on the degree to which the Tar Heels are out of gas, and that's one of the most important questions we'll be trying to answer this week.
[h=2]Chalk bits[/h]
Tennessee has the nation's second-longest winning streak at 11 games, but the Vols have also lost 11 straight against the SEC West. They're just 2-9 ATS during that streak, and have lost by an average score of 38-14. As for their current 11-game win streak, it hasn't exactly been domination. Tennessee outgained just one of its opponents by more than 150 yards in that stretch, and that was lowly North Texas in a 24-0 win as 41-point chalk last November.
The last time Ohio State failed to beat Indiana was 1990, when the teams played to a 27-27 tie. The Buckeyes won the next 16 games in the series, with Indiana covering just three and scoring no more than 17 points in any of them. Then Kevin Wilson arrived in Bloomington. The former Oklahoma playcaller hasn't beaten the Buckeyes yet, but his offense has changed the dynamic of the series. Indiana has covered all five meetings with Wilson on the sideline, and has averaged 410 yards of offense, with 173 of that on the ground.
Quarterback injuries are affecting several numbers this week. Texas Tech's visit to Kansas State and East Carolina's road date with South Florida are both off the board, due to the uncertain status of Tech's Patrick Mahomes and ECU's Philip Nelson. Cincinnati's Hayden Moore, Akron's Thomas Woodson and Arizona State's Manny Wilkins are three more signal-callers whose status is uncertain. Florida's Luke del Rio and Colorado's Sefo Liufau could return soon as well.
