SF Giants @ NY Mets
Pick: NY Mets @2.01
My Projected Line:
The odds are dropping on San Francisco Giants and the Mets are underdog right now. At some bookmakers, Mets are already (@2.01) +101 underdog and with that Bookmakers give the Mets and the Giants around 50-50 chance to win this game. My predictive model has the Mets at 60% and the odds of 1.67. This is the price, which I expect from the bookmakers or higher ofcurse. They give me the Mets for 2.00 and there is a value. My predictive model suggest me to take the Mets for 2.81 Units, I adjust it to 2.5 Units. One unit is for me 1% of my current bankroll.
Info about match:
It's a wild card game between the Mets and Giants, the same like yesterday between Blue Jays and the Orioles, when we hit another winner with Blue Jays. The winner is going to playoffs and will play the Cubs, so this is very important match for both teams. They will use all kind of weapons to reach playoffs.
Pitching:
We will have two very good pitchers on the mound. Bumgarner is my favourite pitcher, he is mentally very strong and as we all know, he is really strong in postseason with the record of 7-3, ERA 2.14. He is also 2 time World Series MVP. With his coachingstuff and smart plays, they are the real deal in postseason and Giants are one of those teams, which will play much better when they need to - especially in postseason. However, we will also have very good pitcher on other side and my numbers rank Syndergaard this season little bit higher than Bumgarner. He is also well rested with 7 days of rest and some pitchers could struggle, when they have more rest, but he is 5-1 in that situation in his last 5 games, so I don't think this will be an issue. Giants beat him in last game with baserunning but I believe, the Mets will prepare for this today. Both pitchers have very good success against opponent hitters and this will be lowscoring tactical game, where bullpen could play a big role later in the game. I believe, both pitchers will show their best stuff, but what I like here about the Mets is that I rank them higher. I have them 5th best in the league, while Giants only 15th. This is my ranking.
Offense:
Mets score 4.1 runs per game this season with batting average of 0.246, but they play little bit better against left-handed pitchers, which Bumgarner is. I have them 7th best in the league against left-handed pitchers and they score 4.3 runs per game against them with BA of 0.258. They also have positive record versus LHP (19-18), they have positive home record (44-37) and they are playing much better in last month than Giants. Their September record is 17-10, while Giants 13-15. In last 7 games, before playoffs, they scored 7 runs per game and their offense is red hot in most important time of year. Giants on other side took all wins, they needed agaisnt strong Dodgers and they score 5.9 runs per game in lat 7 games. Giants were 42-39 on the road this season, but when they played against good home teams (home winning record), they won only 14 games out of last 51. They also lost 4 of last 5 games with Bumgarner, when he faced winning team on the road.
Reason for pick:
Mets are in playoffs again, they were there last year with less experience, but I think this is the time, when they will step up. They have very good pitcher on the mound, they have better bullpen based on my numbers and they are playing good baseball lately. I like to see teams playing well in September, when the playoffs starts, because momentum is very important. They know each other and I believe, this will be low scoring tactical game. I don't like to go against Bochy and Bumgarner inpostseason, but my predictive model gives me more confidence to take the Mets here. Don't forget home field advantage.
Play NY Mets @2.01
Pick: NY Mets @2.01
My Projected Line:
The odds are dropping on San Francisco Giants and the Mets are underdog right now. At some bookmakers, Mets are already (@2.01) +101 underdog and with that Bookmakers give the Mets and the Giants around 50-50 chance to win this game. My predictive model has the Mets at 60% and the odds of 1.67. This is the price, which I expect from the bookmakers or higher ofcurse. They give me the Mets for 2.00 and there is a value. My predictive model suggest me to take the Mets for 2.81 Units, I adjust it to 2.5 Units. One unit is for me 1% of my current bankroll.
Info about match:
It's a wild card game between the Mets and Giants, the same like yesterday between Blue Jays and the Orioles, when we hit another winner with Blue Jays. The winner is going to playoffs and will play the Cubs, so this is very important match for both teams. They will use all kind of weapons to reach playoffs.
Pitching:
We will have two very good pitchers on the mound. Bumgarner is my favourite pitcher, he is mentally very strong and as we all know, he is really strong in postseason with the record of 7-3, ERA 2.14. He is also 2 time World Series MVP. With his coachingstuff and smart plays, they are the real deal in postseason and Giants are one of those teams, which will play much better when they need to - especially in postseason. However, we will also have very good pitcher on other side and my numbers rank Syndergaard this season little bit higher than Bumgarner. He is also well rested with 7 days of rest and some pitchers could struggle, when they have more rest, but he is 5-1 in that situation in his last 5 games, so I don't think this will be an issue. Giants beat him in last game with baserunning but I believe, the Mets will prepare for this today. Both pitchers have very good success against opponent hitters and this will be lowscoring tactical game, where bullpen could play a big role later in the game. I believe, both pitchers will show their best stuff, but what I like here about the Mets is that I rank them higher. I have them 5th best in the league, while Giants only 15th. This is my ranking.
Offense:
Mets score 4.1 runs per game this season with batting average of 0.246, but they play little bit better against left-handed pitchers, which Bumgarner is. I have them 7th best in the league against left-handed pitchers and they score 4.3 runs per game against them with BA of 0.258. They also have positive record versus LHP (19-18), they have positive home record (44-37) and they are playing much better in last month than Giants. Their September record is 17-10, while Giants 13-15. In last 7 games, before playoffs, they scored 7 runs per game and their offense is red hot in most important time of year. Giants on other side took all wins, they needed agaisnt strong Dodgers and they score 5.9 runs per game in lat 7 games. Giants were 42-39 on the road this season, but when they played against good home teams (home winning record), they won only 14 games out of last 51. They also lost 4 of last 5 games with Bumgarner, when he faced winning team on the road.
Reason for pick:
Mets are in playoffs again, they were there last year with less experience, but I think this is the time, when they will step up. They have very good pitcher on the mound, they have better bullpen based on my numbers and they are playing good baseball lately. I like to see teams playing well in September, when the playoffs starts, because momentum is very important. They know each other and I believe, this will be low scoring tactical game. I don't like to go against Bochy and Bumgarner inpostseason, but my predictive model gives me more confidence to take the Mets here. Don't forget home field advantage.
Play NY Mets @2.01
