How to bet Wednesday Night's Mets-Giants NL wild-card game

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[h=1]How to bet the NL wild-card game[/h]MLB Vegas Experts
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The last time the New York Mets sent Noah Syndergaard to the mound to face the Giants, New York's season hung in the balance. A couple of games past the three-quarter mark of the season, the Mets were a game under .500, in third place in the NL East. Not only had the Mets won three fewer games than the Marlins at that point, but they also had won only three more games than the Phillies!
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Then Thor took the mound in the national spotlight of Sunday Night Baseball, pitched eight innings of two-hit ball and from there the Mets went 25-13, tying the Cubs for the best record in the NL over the rest of the season.
On that hot August night, Syndergaard sqaured off against Jeff Samardzija. Tonight the Giants send their ace, and winner of the 2014 wild-card game,Madison Bumgarner, to the mound. While San Francisco gains confidence starting its No. 1 pitcher, who happens to be coming off his best year statistically, from a momentum standpoint it's been well-established that the Giants come into the postseason leaking oil like a rusted-out jalopy.
It took a four-game winning streak to end the season for the Giants to escape the distinction of having the worst post All-Star break record in the National League -- after having had the best record up to that point. Still, don't be too deceived by their poor record in that time frame. The Giants may have lost 12 more games than they won in the second half of the season, but they still outscored their opponents by 11 runs.
Of course, the nirvana for any baseball handicapper is to hit nine straight postseason series calls to complete the October sweep. Joe Peta, who came within one missed series call of going 9-0 last year, kept his 2016 dream of a perfect slate alive with his call last night on the Blue Jays. Joining him tonight will be Andrew Lange, making his initial pick of the postseason.

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Westgate line: San Francisco Giants (Bumgarner) -105 at New York Mets (Syndergaard) -105,
Over/under: 6 (-125 under)
PickCenter Intel

Joe Peta: For a pitcher with a 2.74 ERA (fourth in the majors) and a 3.36 SIERA (also fourth, but in a stat which measures a pitcher's skill set and not his results), Bumgarner had a surprising amount of mediocre outings. You look at his game log and his season takes on a barbell quality -- he was either unhittable or just replacement level. That sort of inconsistency is unusual for pitchers regarded as dominating. The main culprit? Bumgarner has induced a lower percentage of ground balls every season for the last four years to the point that now he is one of the most extreme flyball pitchers in the game.
Guess who hit the second most home runs in the National League this year? In shattering the franchise record in a season for home runs with 218, the Mets were fifth in the majors in dingers. With Syndergaard on the mound, the Mets are well-equipped to go to battle against Bumgarner. A "bloop and a blast" is a highly reasonable scenario, which is why there is nothing ridiculous about envisioning the Mets riding Thor to a 2-1 victory.
However, for the Mets to hold any opponent to one run or less takes at least double-digit strikeouts from their pitchers because their defense is so very bad -- fourth-worst in the majors by my adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. Syndergaard, of course, has the stuff to punch out a dozen batters, but just as the Mets have the long-ball power to exploit Bumgarner's weakness, the Giants offset Syndergaard's strength because they strike out less, by far, than any other team in the NL.
I preached all World Series last year that a team that puts materially more balls in play against the team with the materially worse defense will inevitably score more runs in the long run. This is only one game of course, but I see it playing out the same way.
ESPN Chalk pick: San Francisco -105

Andrew Lange: I'm all about a hitting reset once the postseason begins, but the way the San Francisco Giants played after the All-Star break and the amount of energy they expended over the final week of the season has me leery of Wednesday's one-and-done game in New York. If this were a best-of-five series, the Giants would be the clear favorite to advance, considering New York's decimated starting rotation.
Bumgarner's ERA over his last nine starts was an alarming 4.66. Of those nine starts, three were against offensively inept San Diego and Atlanta and three were against the Dodgers, one of the league's worst offenses against left-handed pitching. In his last outing -- a must win -- the Dodgers rested a number of key players and Bumgarner was still smacked around early for two runs in the first inning.
He eventually settled down and once opposing starter Rich Hill left, the Giants exploded for seven runs in the sixth inning en route to a 9-3 win. Bumgarner's stat line looked good (7 1/3 IP, 3 ERs) but it was another performance that has me questioning the toll of his incredible workload. Yes, he just turned 27 years old, but six straight regular seasons of 200-plus innings, with 67 2/3 postseason innings during that span, and a noticeable drop in velocity are all red flags.


Syndergaard enters the game on extended rest. He hasn't thrown over 100 pitches in a start since Sept. 2 and last pitched on Sept. 27. While Bumgarner is rightfully praised for his postseason heroics, Syndergaard is no stranger to the playoffs himself, having made three quality starts last year. I also give the bullpen edge to the Mets as the Giants' pen had plenty of well-documented struggles during the back half of the season. If San Francisco has one considerable advantage, it's defense. For me, the Mets grade out as league average while the Giants were one of the league's best.
The price is ultimately what gets me to the window with New York. In this one-game scenario, the factors I feel to be most important suggest the Mets should be as high as -125.
ESPN Chalk pick: New York -105
 

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