[h=1]Sports Insights' contrarian betting strategy for Week 5 of the NFL[/h]David Solar
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Past research has conclusively proven that betting against the public will produce a positive return on investment, although many bettors are confused about why this is such a successful strategy.
Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Throughout the week, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line.
As I've stated repeatedly, the public loves betting favorites and overs, which is why most of my contrarian systems will focus on underdogs and unders. It's human nature to root for winners and scoring, and the media's propensity to overhype these teams only exasperate this tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines to exploit the tendencies of casual bettors.
For anybody unfamiliar with Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.
Most oddsmakers are able to anticipate which games will take one-sided public betting, so they will <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>shade their opening lines to account for the predictable flood of public money. If the liability becomes too great, they will occasionally adjust their number to encourage action on the other side, thereby mitigating some of their risk. That's where the contrarian bettor jumps in.
In the past, I've explained that underdogs are slightly undervalued, but they become far more lucrative when they're being avoided by a majority of bettors.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Betting Against The Public</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>The value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, and even the sharpest sportsbooks will adjust their lines if one side is being hammered by public money. These artificially inflated lines have historically created value for opportunistic contrarian bettors, since they're getting a better line based purely upon the opinion of recreational bettors.
While betting against the public represents a consistently profitable strategy, it's only one component of employing a contrarian strategy. Past research has found that most casual bettors tend to overreact to recent events, which is why I'm constantly advocating buying on bad news and selling on good.
Contrarian bettors habitually take teams after a blowout loss, fade "elite" teams and back teams that have failed to win or cover the spread in recent weeks. These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they allow bettors to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
Based on units earned, the sweet spot for betting against the public comes on underdogs receiving fewer than 25 percent of spread bets. Those results improve substantially when the team lost and failed to cover in their previous game. It's readily apparent that bettors won't back teams who lost on the spread and moneyline, which makes oddsmakers decision to shade their lines incredibly easy.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Week 5 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
As we mentioned earlier, square bettors often overreact to recent results. They place bets purely based on instinct, and often don't care about whether they're getting the best of the line. Their propensity to hammer favorites and back the league's hottest teams means oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this inevitable influx of public money.
Most sportsbooks react to this behavior by shading their lines and forcing casual bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. If books don't receive enough action from their sharp bettors, those lines will continue to balloon.
The value created from betting against the public directly correlates with the number of bets placed on each game, and the NFL is easily the most heavily bet American sport.
Contrarian betting is a broad term which not only encompasses the concept of betting against the public, but also includes challenging widely held opinions. That's one of the reasons it's so important to buy low on teams following a loss.
Historically, it's been very profitable to bet on teams who lost their previous game -- especially if it was a blowout loss. Since 2003, underdogs have gone 933-880 ATS (51.5 percent) after a loss, 502-464 ATS (52.0 percent) after a double-digit loss and 239-197 ATS (54.8 percent) following a loss of at least 20 points. The bigger the loss, the bigger the public reaction.
By buying low on the league's least popular teams, contrarian bettors can exploit market inefficiencies. The talent gap between the league's best and worst teams is smaller than most bettors realize, so getting free points based on recency bias is an excellent long-term approach.
Last week's picks struggled, but we'll look to get back on track with four contrarian picks that offer value in Week 5.
[h=2]Week 5 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
[h=3]San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals[/h]With Carson Palmer listed as doubtful with a concussion, Drew Stanton is expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals -- but that still hasn't changed the public's perception.
Arizona opened as 2.5-point road favorites and, at the time of publication, was receiving 79 percent of spread tickets and 90 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public betting has caused the Cardinals to move from -2.5 to -4.5. Considering that "3" is the most common margin of victory, that's a very significant line move.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy back on early steam, and grab the 49ers plus the hook. Historically, underdogs have provided additional value against divisional opponents, so this is a nice opportunity to buy low on the 49ers after last week's loss to the Cowboys.
The pick: 49ers +4.5
[h=3]Cleveland Browns (+10.5) vs. New England Patriots[/h]In this week's most heavily bet game, Tom Brady makes his season debut after serving his four-game suspension. Clearly bettors believe that Brady will return with a vengeance.
The Patriots opened as 10-point road favorites and have received 91 percent of early spread tickets as well as 97 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public betting has caused the line to move from New England -10 to -10.5. Once again, "10" is considered a key number, which makes this a significant line move.
Since 2003, double-digit home underdogs have gone 40-26 ATS (60.6 percent). I have also found that double-digit underdogs have gone 103-77 ATS (57.2 percent) after a double-digit loss. Both of these trends indicate that the Browns could be undervalued.
The Patriots could be the most popular bet of the young season, but this is in our contrarian wheelhouse. One of the best quarterbacks of all-time making his season debut against arguably the league's worst team. It may not be pretty, but I think this game will be more competitive than people believe -- especially since Brady hasn't practiced with his teammates all season.
The pick: Browns +10.5
[h=3]New York Jets (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]This might be the perfect example of why it's important to buy on bad news and sell on good news. On Sunday Night Football, the Steelers spanked the Chiefs 43-14. Conversely, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions in his past two games -- both Jets losses.
The Steelers opened as 7-point favorites and have received 81 percent of spread bets and 65 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite that one-sided betting, we've actually seen this line bounce back and forth between 7 and 6.5. That reverse line movement is an indicator that early sharp money likes the Jets.
New York fits one of my favorite contrarian systems, which has gone 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since the start of the 2003 season. The Jets aren't as bad as they've looked these past two weeks, so I'll gladly take the points and hope for a competitive game.
The pick: Jets +7
[h=3]Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles[/h]The Eagles have been one of the most pleasant early-season surprises, defying expectations with their 3-0 start. Coming off of a bye, Philly opened as a pick 'em before being hammered with public money. With 84 percent of spread tickets and 92 percent of total dollars wagered backing the road team, the Eagles moved from PK to -3.
There have already been several bet signals triggered on Detroit +3, which indicates that early sharp money likes the home dog. The Lions also fit our Week 3 column from last season, which focuses on road underdogs after a road loss.
Carson Wentz has looked impressive this season, but he's still a rookie. I think people are overreacting to a small sample size, and I think he may struggle on the road this week. Once again I'll bet against the public and take the home team plus the points.
The pick: Lions +3
These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Oddspage throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Past research has conclusively proven that betting against the public will produce a positive return on investment, although many bettors are confused about why this is such a successful strategy.
Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Throughout the week, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line.
As I've stated repeatedly, the public loves betting favorites and overs, which is why most of my contrarian systems will focus on underdogs and unders. It's human nature to root for winners and scoring, and the media's propensity to overhype these teams only exasperate this tendency. Sportsbooks understand this and shade their lines to exploit the tendencies of casual bettors.
For anybody unfamiliar with Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.
Most oddsmakers are able to anticipate which games will take one-sided public betting, so they will <offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>shade their opening lines to account for the predictable flood of public money. If the liability becomes too great, they will occasionally adjust their number to encourage action on the other side, thereby mitigating some of their risk. That's where the contrarian bettor jumps in.
In the past, I've explained that underdogs are slightly undervalued, but they become far more lucrative when they're being avoided by a majority of bettors.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underdogs | 1733-1689 (50.6%) | -34.62 | -1.0% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets | 1350-1308 (50.8%) | -27.78 | -0.9 % |
| Underdogs receiving less than 40 percent of spread bets | 958-940 (50.5%) | -30.03 | -1.6% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 30 percent of spread bets | 478-452 (51.4%) | +1.13 | +0.1% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 25 percent of spread bets | 256-207 (55.3%) | +36.18 | +7.8% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 20 percent of spread bets | 107-84 (56.0%) | +17.66 | +9.2% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Betting Against The Public</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>The value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, and even the sharpest sportsbooks will adjust their lines if one side is being hammered by public money. These artificially inflated lines have historically created value for opportunistic contrarian bettors, since they're getting a better line based purely upon the opinion of recreational bettors.
While betting against the public represents a consistently profitable strategy, it's only one component of employing a contrarian strategy. Past research has found that most casual bettors tend to overreact to recent events, which is why I'm constantly advocating buying on bad news and selling on good.
Contrarian bettors habitually take teams after a blowout loss, fade "elite" teams and back teams that have failed to win or cover the spread in recent weeks. These tactics may seem counterintuitive, but they allow bettors to exploit public perception and take advantage of artificially inflated lines.
Based on units earned, the sweet spot for betting against the public comes on underdogs receiving fewer than 25 percent of spread bets. Those results improve substantially when the team lost and failed to cover in their previous game. It's readily apparent that bettors won't back teams who lost on the spread and moneyline, which makes oddsmakers decision to shade their lines incredibly easy.
<aside class="inline inline-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">
| CRITERIA | ATS RECORD | UNITS WON | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Underdogs receiving less than 25% of spread bets | 256-207 (55.3%) | +36.18 | +7.8% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 25% of spread bets, lost previous game | 185-137 (57.5%) | +37.73 | +11.7% |
| Underdogs receiving less than 25% of spread bets, lost and didn't cover in previous game | 151-98 (60.6%) | +44.96 | +18.1% |
| Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records |
<caption style="box-sizing: border-box; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; color: rgb(43, 44, 45); font-weight: 600; height: 44px; line-height: 2.8; position: relative; text-align: left; text-transform: capitalize; z-index: 1000020;">Week 5 Betting System</caption><thead style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</thead><tbody style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tbody><tfoot style="box-sizing: border-box;">
</tfoot>
</aside>Why does this work?
As we mentioned earlier, square bettors often overreact to recent results. They place bets purely based on instinct, and often don't care about whether they're getting the best of the line. Their propensity to hammer favorites and back the league's hottest teams means oddsmakers can accurately anticipate this inevitable influx of public money.
Most sportsbooks react to this behavior by shading their lines and forcing casual bettors to take bad numbers when they play the popular side of a game. If books don't receive enough action from their sharp bettors, those lines will continue to balloon.
The value created from betting against the public directly correlates with the number of bets placed on each game, and the NFL is easily the most heavily bet American sport.
Contrarian betting is a broad term which not only encompasses the concept of betting against the public, but also includes challenging widely held opinions. That's one of the reasons it's so important to buy low on teams following a loss.
Historically, it's been very profitable to bet on teams who lost their previous game -- especially if it was a blowout loss. Since 2003, underdogs have gone 933-880 ATS (51.5 percent) after a loss, 502-464 ATS (52.0 percent) after a double-digit loss and 239-197 ATS (54.8 percent) following a loss of at least 20 points. The bigger the loss, the bigger the public reaction.
By buying low on the league's least popular teams, contrarian bettors can exploit market inefficiencies. The talent gap between the league's best and worst teams is smaller than most bettors realize, so getting free points based on recency bias is an excellent long-term approach.
Last week's picks struggled, but we'll look to get back on track with four contrarian picks that offer value in Week 5.
[h=2]Week 5 system matches[/h]Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas as of Tuesday evening.
[h=3]San Francisco 49ers (+4.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals[/h]With Carson Palmer listed as doubtful with a concussion, Drew Stanton is expected to start at quarterback for the Cardinals -- but that still hasn't changed the public's perception.
Arizona opened as 2.5-point road favorites and, at the time of publication, was receiving 79 percent of spread tickets and 90 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public betting has caused the Cardinals to move from -2.5 to -4.5. Considering that "3" is the most common margin of victory, that's a very significant line move.
This is an excellent opportunity to buy back on early steam, and grab the 49ers plus the hook. Historically, underdogs have provided additional value against divisional opponents, so this is a nice opportunity to buy low on the 49ers after last week's loss to the Cowboys.
The pick: 49ers +4.5
[h=3]Cleveland Browns (+10.5) vs. New England Patriots[/h]In this week's most heavily bet game, Tom Brady makes his season debut after serving his four-game suspension. Clearly bettors believe that Brady will return with a vengeance.
The Patriots opened as 10-point road favorites and have received 91 percent of early spread tickets as well as 97 percent of total dollars wagered. This one-sided public betting has caused the line to move from New England -10 to -10.5. Once again, "10" is considered a key number, which makes this a significant line move.
Since 2003, double-digit home underdogs have gone 40-26 ATS (60.6 percent). I have also found that double-digit underdogs have gone 103-77 ATS (57.2 percent) after a double-digit loss. Both of these trends indicate that the Browns could be undervalued.
The Patriots could be the most popular bet of the young season, but this is in our contrarian wheelhouse. One of the best quarterbacks of all-time making his season debut against arguably the league's worst team. It may not be pretty, but I think this game will be more competitive than people believe -- especially since Brady hasn't practiced with his teammates all season.
The pick: Browns +10.5
[h=3]New York Jets (+7) at Pittsburgh Steelers[/h]This might be the perfect example of why it's important to buy on bad news and sell on good news. On Sunday Night Football, the Steelers spanked the Chiefs 43-14. Conversely, Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown nine interceptions in his past two games -- both Jets losses.
The Steelers opened as 7-point favorites and have received 81 percent of spread bets and 65 percent of total dollars wagered. Despite that one-sided betting, we've actually seen this line bounce back and forth between 7 and 6.5. That reverse line movement is an indicator that early sharp money likes the Jets.
New York fits one of my favorite contrarian systems, which has gone 39-15 ATS (72.2 percent) since the start of the 2003 season. The Jets aren't as bad as they've looked these past two weeks, so I'll gladly take the points and hope for a competitive game.
The pick: Jets +7
[h=3]Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Philadelphia Eagles[/h]The Eagles have been one of the most pleasant early-season surprises, defying expectations with their 3-0 start. Coming off of a bye, Philly opened as a pick 'em before being hammered with public money. With 84 percent of spread tickets and 92 percent of total dollars wagered backing the road team, the Eagles moved from PK to -3.
There have already been several bet signals triggered on Detroit +3, which indicates that early sharp money likes the home dog. The Lions also fit our Week 3 column from last season, which focuses on road underdogs after a road loss.
Carson Wentz has looked impressive this season, but he's still a rookie. I think people are overreacting to a small sample size, and I think he may struggle on the road this week. Once again I'll bet against the public and take the home team plus the points.
The pick: Lions +3
These lines are subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Oddspage throughout the week for updated lines and betting trends.
