BOSTON RED SOX @ CLEVELAND INDIANS
PICK: CLEVELAND +132 (Bauer)
Odds
Odds are dropping on Red Sox but it is also, that more people are baking Boston in this one. You can find odds of 2.32 or +132 on Cleveland and so they give cca 43% of chance for Cleveland in this one. My predictive model still gives little bit better chances to Cleveland in this one. I have projected Cleveland at 47% and my expected odds on them would be cca 2.11 or +111. Based on my numbers, I have small value on Cleveland.
Match Up
This is the first game of the series between Cleveland and Boston Red Sox and they are playing in Cleveland where Indians are dominating whole season. They have the best home record at home in 2016 (53-28), where they score 5.6 runs per game with batting average of 0.287, OBP 0.359 and they hold opponents at 4.3 runs per game. They also played well against the Red Sox in last couple of meeting at home they beat them in 7 out of 9 games. Indians will start with Bauer, who was beaten by Red Sox this season and also last season, but both games were at Fenway Park and he is better at home this season and I want to see him here now. At home he has record of 6-4 with 88 strike outs in 101 innings. Porcello will start on other side for Red Sox and he has been really good this season with ERA of 3.15 and amazing record of 22-4. Both bullpens are good and I have Indians bullpen little bit better. When it comes to an offense, Indians score 5.6 runs per game at home, where they were dominating. On other side Boston score 5.4 runs per game trough the season, but little bit less on the road, where they score 5.0 runs per game.
Reasons why I like Indians here?
First of all, Indians are very good home team and they are 7-2 against Boston at home in last 9 games. Bauer will start for them, who was beaten twice against Boston in his career, but both games were in Boston. At home he was good this season with 6-4 record and Indians won 6 of last 7 home games with Bauer on the mound and they are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Boston hitters have 41 at bats against him and 2 home runs (Ortiz, Betts). Indians on other side saw Porcello more times (202 at bats) which is always better and couple Indians have some success against him. Perez, Kipnis, Napoli, Gomes, Davis, they all have BA over 0.300 against today’s Boston hitter. Santana has 3 home runs against him and they know what to expect. I like Indians, the best home MLB team this season as a home underdog against a pitcher, who lost last game in Cleveland and hitters saw him a lot of times and many of them have success against him. I have projected them at 2.1 (+110) in this one and with 2.32 (+132) I have a small value. They score 5.6 runs per game at home, which is more than Boston on the road (5.0). Public is on Red Sox side, but I am not that sure about that. I will go with the home underdog here. It's time for first underdog in playoffs!
Good Luck!
PICK: CLEVELAND +132 (Bauer)
Odds
Odds are dropping on Red Sox but it is also, that more people are baking Boston in this one. You can find odds of 2.32 or +132 on Cleveland and so they give cca 43% of chance for Cleveland in this one. My predictive model still gives little bit better chances to Cleveland in this one. I have projected Cleveland at 47% and my expected odds on them would be cca 2.11 or +111. Based on my numbers, I have small value on Cleveland.
Match Up
This is the first game of the series between Cleveland and Boston Red Sox and they are playing in Cleveland where Indians are dominating whole season. They have the best home record at home in 2016 (53-28), where they score 5.6 runs per game with batting average of 0.287, OBP 0.359 and they hold opponents at 4.3 runs per game. They also played well against the Red Sox in last couple of meeting at home they beat them in 7 out of 9 games. Indians will start with Bauer, who was beaten by Red Sox this season and also last season, but both games were at Fenway Park and he is better at home this season and I want to see him here now. At home he has record of 6-4 with 88 strike outs in 101 innings. Porcello will start on other side for Red Sox and he has been really good this season with ERA of 3.15 and amazing record of 22-4. Both bullpens are good and I have Indians bullpen little bit better. When it comes to an offense, Indians score 5.6 runs per game at home, where they were dominating. On other side Boston score 5.4 runs per game trough the season, but little bit less on the road, where they score 5.0 runs per game.
Reasons why I like Indians here?
First of all, Indians are very good home team and they are 7-2 against Boston at home in last 9 games. Bauer will start for them, who was beaten twice against Boston in his career, but both games were in Boston. At home he was good this season with 6-4 record and Indians won 6 of last 7 home games with Bauer on the mound and they are 8-3 in his last 11 starts. Boston hitters have 41 at bats against him and 2 home runs (Ortiz, Betts). Indians on other side saw Porcello more times (202 at bats) which is always better and couple Indians have some success against him. Perez, Kipnis, Napoli, Gomes, Davis, they all have BA over 0.300 against today’s Boston hitter. Santana has 3 home runs against him and they know what to expect. I like Indians, the best home MLB team this season as a home underdog against a pitcher, who lost last game in Cleveland and hitters saw him a lot of times and many of them have success against him. I have projected them at 2.1 (+110) in this one and with 2.32 (+132) I have a small value. They score 5.6 runs per game at home, which is more than Boston on the road (5.0). Public is on Red Sox side, but I am not that sure about that. I will go with the home underdog here. It's time for first underdog in playoffs!
Good Luck!
