Those that have won/gone deep in survivor

StraightXRS · Oct 6, 2016

For those that have won or gone deep in a survivor with at least a few hundred players, what leads to the victory? Did you avoid a big fave (pats this week) or did you go with the consensus pick each week?

I feel like each week there are 2-3 big favorites and that's who I've been taking and luckily I'm still in. Do I just continue to do this and hope it's not my big favorites that does down or should I start taking more chances hoping that the big favorites falls and most get knocked out.

PatsFanatic · Oct 6, 2016

I do what you've been doing. Name of the game is to survive, not pick a long shot just because you know no one else will have picked that team. Who cares?
Try to pick the obvious winner and stay in the game as long as possible.

I shake my head at some of the picks that are on a pick'em game...they're a pick'em for a reason anyone could win. You have no points to cover pick the big fav. If they lose, they lose...you won't look back and say it was a dumb pick.

CHOPTALK · Oct 6, 2016

I made it to week 3 once . Does that count

wizardofodd · Oct 6, 2016

PatsFanatic said:
I do what you've been doing. Name of the game is to survive, not pick a long shot just because you know no one else will have picked that team. Who cares?
Try to pick the obvious winner and stay in the game as long as possible.

I shake my head at some of the picks that are on a pick'em game...they're a pick'em for a reason anyone could win. You have no points to cover pick the big fav. If they lose, they lose...you won't look back and say it was a dumb pick.

agree 100%!!

For example, which game do you have a better chance of winning?

Pats at Cleveland
or
Atlanta at Denver

Its a simple answer IMO. I guess you can rely on people trying to "outsmart" the rest of the group and wait for them to knock themselves out.

CHOPTALK · Oct 6, 2016

PatsFanatic said:
I do what you've been doing. Name of the game is to survive, not pick a long shot just because you know no one else will have picked that team. Who cares?
Try to pick the obvious winner and stay in the game as long as possible.

I shake my head at some of the picks that are on a pick'em game...they're a pick'em for a reason anyone could win. You have no points to cover pick the big fav. If they lose, they lose...you won't look back and say it was a dumb pick.

With that strategy you probably have a better chance to make it to week 10 then most but your odds of winning the whole thing would be lower then the odds of someone who goes against the norm.

Kind of like the poker player who's main goal is to finish in the money vs the poker player who's goal is to win the whole thing.

The odds are stronger for the guy trying to finishing in the money vs the guy trying to win the whole thing finishing in the money but at the same time they guy trying to win it all has better odds of winning the whole thing then guy that's just trying to finish in the money.

The problem for survivor is there is no payout for getting knocked out in week 10 like the poker player finishing ITM

If you take the consensus team every week in a crowded field it's not going to get you anywhere .

Gotta take some
calculated chamces .

Im not saying take Cleveland over the pats or anything like that but some well thought out against the grain picks

KingEleven · Oct 6, 2016

I do well in pools, etc....EXCEPT survivor pools...I have been terrible over the years using different strategies, so I'm not sure what is the right answer. Good luck!

PatsFanatic · Oct 6, 2016

CHOPTALK said:
With that strategy you probably have a better chance to make it to week 10 then most but your odds of winning the whole thing would be lower then the odds of someone who goes against the norm.

Kind of like the poker player who's main goal is to finish in the money vs the poker player who's goal is to win the whole thing.

The odds are stronger for the guy trying to finishing in the money vs the guy trying to win the whole thing finishing in the money but at the same time they guy trying to win it all has better odds of winning the whole thing then guy that's just trying to finish in the money.

The problem for survivor is there is no payout for getting knocked out in week 10 like the poker player finishing ITM

If you take the consensus team every week in a crowded field it's not going to get you anywhere .

Gotta take some
calculated chamces .

Im not saying take Cleveland over the pats or anything like that but some well thought out against the grain picks

I understand, I'm going to go through the best teams much quicker. But there will be less players in the game by then.
Then you need to get lucky.

StraightXRS · Oct 6, 2016

But if everyone is on the same games how do you win? I've never made it very far so I'd like to know from past experiences. Did you just get lucky and not have that major consensus team available to use when they lost?

Seymour · Oct 6, 2016

Luck - that's 95% - if the pool has over 50 people u need to go off the beaten path here and there - if it's small then it's probably best to stick with the biggest fans

terps1313 · Oct 6, 2016

Everyone isn't on the same games. Every week there are at least 2-4 games people are choosing from. I would say most will be deciding between the Pats, Packers, and Steelers this week. Once you narrow it down, then it becomes using the strategy you feel is best. Everyone could be different in this regard as well. My strategy is to pick my most confident team based on who I have left and move on. Others wanna save teams or may just have a different opinion on who the best pick is that given week.

GoBlue34 · Oct 6, 2016

I've done 4 of them (so not a ton of data) but I've tried it both ways, looking ahead at who to save for future matchups, etc. Also done it week by week and taking the most obvious picks.

I've bee in the money exactly zero times and not even close. So I would agree that it is mostly luck with some common sense mixed in

Wisenheimer · Oct 6, 2016

I won last year (20 players) and I'll tell you what, I've seen a lot of people remind themselves and others that the name of the game is 'Survivor' and I've never seen them win.....you have to go off the beaten path....you'll figure out why starting around week 8

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