TORONTO BLUE JAYS (J.A. Happ) @ TEXAS RANGERS (Darvish)
Pick: Texas Rangers (Darvish) @1.81 3units
My Projected Lines
Bookmakers have Texas Rangers and Yu Darvish at -124 or @1.81. They gave them around 55% of chance to win this game. My predictive model has Texas and Darvish at -179 (@1.56) and I give them little bit more chance to win the second game of this series. My calculated win % is around 64% for Texas and I have a value on them.
Match Up
Huge win by Toronto yesterday, it was total domination by them. They scored 10 runs and they are dangerous. I believe, they can beat Texas in this series, but I am not sure if they can beat them tonight. After that game, they are going back home in Canada, where I think they will finish the job. But first we have to play this game and Texas will not give this game easily. They have a good team after they bring Lucroy and Beltran, I think we have really really good offensive team. Why I pointed out those two players? Because I think both can be very important today, especailly because those two guys have hit J.A. Happ well in the past. Beltran has 32 at bats, 3 home runs, 4 extra base hits and batting average of 0.313 against him. Lucroy has 19 at bats, 4 extra base hits and batting average of 3.68. J.A. Happ will start for Toronto, he just came back after injury (the same as Darvish) and he will face Texas Rangers team, which has a lineup with a lot of right handed batters. Ok, someone will say, yes, he has better number against LHH, when it comes to batting average, yes this is right, but he also allowed more home runs per inning against right handed hitters and Texas have a lot of power. On other side we have Darvish, who was also injured, but in last two games, he was amazing and just found the right time for fine form. In last two regular season games, he struck out 21 hitters in 13 innings, which is amazing. He also has very very good numbers against Toronto’s lineup. Their players combined 100 at bats and only 18 hits, which is great. Only Encarnacion has batting average of more than 0.300 against him and he is the only guy from Toronto, who has home run against him.
Why I took Texas?
I like Toronto in this series, but I am not sure, they can sweep Texas and this is not even important, what i think. My predictive model projected Texas at 1.56 and I would expect fair price of 0.56 of profit if I play unit. Bookmakers gave me 0.81 units of profit for the same stake and this is value for me. The second this is that I rank Darvish higher, especially he showed some great pitching in last two games, just in the time, when his team will need him the most. He has great success against Toronto’s lineup and this is basically must win situation for Texas. Happ on other side is also very good and he was even better against right handed hitters, but still, he will face some very dangerous right handed hitters from Texas and both new players from Texas, who came to this ballclub later in the season (Beltran, Lucroy) have very good numbers against him. Note also, that Texas is traditionally very good home team and they were the best home team (with indians) this season in regular season (53-28). I believe, they will step up and I also think we have little bit better price on them because of the game yesterday.
Pick: Texas Rangers (Darvish) @1.81 3units
My Projected Lines
Bookmakers have Texas Rangers and Yu Darvish at -124 or @1.81. They gave them around 55% of chance to win this game. My predictive model has Texas and Darvish at -179 (@1.56) and I give them little bit more chance to win the second game of this series. My calculated win % is around 64% for Texas and I have a value on them.
Match Up
Huge win by Toronto yesterday, it was total domination by them. They scored 10 runs and they are dangerous. I believe, they can beat Texas in this series, but I am not sure if they can beat them tonight. After that game, they are going back home in Canada, where I think they will finish the job. But first we have to play this game and Texas will not give this game easily. They have a good team after they bring Lucroy and Beltran, I think we have really really good offensive team. Why I pointed out those two players? Because I think both can be very important today, especailly because those two guys have hit J.A. Happ well in the past. Beltran has 32 at bats, 3 home runs, 4 extra base hits and batting average of 0.313 against him. Lucroy has 19 at bats, 4 extra base hits and batting average of 3.68. J.A. Happ will start for Toronto, he just came back after injury (the same as Darvish) and he will face Texas Rangers team, which has a lineup with a lot of right handed batters. Ok, someone will say, yes, he has better number against LHH, when it comes to batting average, yes this is right, but he also allowed more home runs per inning against right handed hitters and Texas have a lot of power. On other side we have Darvish, who was also injured, but in last two games, he was amazing and just found the right time for fine form. In last two regular season games, he struck out 21 hitters in 13 innings, which is amazing. He also has very very good numbers against Toronto’s lineup. Their players combined 100 at bats and only 18 hits, which is great. Only Encarnacion has batting average of more than 0.300 against him and he is the only guy from Toronto, who has home run against him.
Why I took Texas?
I like Toronto in this series, but I am not sure, they can sweep Texas and this is not even important, what i think. My predictive model projected Texas at 1.56 and I would expect fair price of 0.56 of profit if I play unit. Bookmakers gave me 0.81 units of profit for the same stake and this is value for me. The second this is that I rank Darvish higher, especially he showed some great pitching in last two games, just in the time, when his team will need him the most. He has great success against Toronto’s lineup and this is basically must win situation for Texas. Happ on other side is also very good and he was even better against right handed hitters, but still, he will face some very dangerous right handed hitters from Texas and both new players from Texas, who came to this ballclub later in the season (Beltran, Lucroy) have very good numbers against him. Note also, that Texas is traditionally very good home team and they were the best home team (with indians) this season in regular season (53-28). I believe, they will step up and I also think we have little bit better price on them because of the game yesterday.
