[h=1]How to bet Tampa Bay-Carolina[/h]NFL Vegas Experts
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ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 5 games, including Monday night's Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
[h=3]Matchup: Tampa Bay Buccaneers atCarolina Panthers[/h]Spread: Opened Carolina -4.5; now Carolina -5.5
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Carolina
Public perception: The public is still siding with the Panthers as you would expect, though obviously showing less confidence with Derek Anderson filling in for injured Cam Newton (concussion). The Buccaneers, who opened the season with a win against the Falcons, have lost three straight by a combined 68 points.
Wiseguys' view: This game was off the board most of this past week as oddsmakers waited for Newton's playing status. With the adjustment to Carolina -4.5 (it would have been higher than -7 if Newton was playing), sharp action has been split.
Dave Tuley's take: Newton obviously makes a big difference, but Anderson has filled in admirably for him before, so I expect the Panthers' offense to keep rolling (averaging 386.5 yards per game, fifth in NFL). In fact, while most bettors will be looking to the under with Newton sidelined, I believe the value is on the over. While Jameis Winstonand the Bucs' offense has struggled overall, they've shown potential, and Carolina's defense is a shadow of last season and giving up 29.5 points per game. Look for a Monday night shootout.
The pick: Over 44.5* (lean to Panthers -4.5).
Rufus Peabody: The Panthers look to right the ship after a 1-3 start, and will have to do it this week without Newton. The drop-off from Newton to backup Derek Anderson is 3.2 points by my numbers, but even with that drop off, Massey-Peabody still makes the Panthers a 6.6-point favorite. Carolina has been the third-worst defense in the league so far, but we can't ignore their dominance last year. I expect some regression back to the mean. The market opened at -4.5, and has been bet up to -5.5, so I don't see any side value here.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning: Yes, the Panthers will be without Newton for this contest, but Anderson has filled in admirably in the past. There's a drop off at QB, but certainly not a gaping hole like on some other NFL teams. Remember that the Buccaneers will be expected to be without their own star on the defensive line in Gerald McCoy. With other injuries on the D line, the loss off McCoy is a devastating blow for that unit. Largely, this Buccaneers team can't get out of its own way. Winston is a firm example, as he's accounted for double-digit turnovers already this season. This is a continued trend with Tampa Bay, as the yardage numbers are sound, but the efficiency continues to be a major dilemma.
Pick: Panthers
Mike Clay
Score: Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 21
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 5 games, including Monday night's Tampa Bay-Carolina matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Total: Opened 44.5; now 44.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 55 percent Carolina
Public perception: The public is still siding with the Panthers as you would expect, though obviously showing less confidence with Derek Anderson filling in for injured Cam Newton (concussion). The Buccaneers, who opened the season with a win against the Falcons, have lost three straight by a combined 68 points.
Wiseguys' view: This game was off the board most of this past week as oddsmakers waited for Newton's playing status. With the adjustment to Carolina -4.5 (it would have been higher than -7 if Newton was playing), sharp action has been split.
Dave Tuley's take: Newton obviously makes a big difference, but Anderson has filled in admirably for him before, so I expect the Panthers' offense to keep rolling (averaging 386.5 yards per game, fifth in NFL). In fact, while most bettors will be looking to the under with Newton sidelined, I believe the value is on the over. While Jameis Winstonand the Bucs' offense has struggled overall, they've shown potential, and Carolina's defense is a shadow of last season and giving up 29.5 points per game. Look for a Monday night shootout.
The pick: Over 44.5* (lean to Panthers -4.5).
Rufus Peabody: The Panthers look to right the ship after a 1-3 start, and will have to do it this week without Newton. The drop-off from Newton to backup Derek Anderson is 3.2 points by my numbers, but even with that drop off, Massey-Peabody still makes the Panthers a 6.6-point favorite. Carolina has been the third-worst defense in the league so far, but we can't ignore their dominance last year. I expect some regression back to the mean. The market opened at -4.5, and has been bet up to -5.5, so I don't see any side value here.
Pick: Pass
Erin Rynning: Yes, the Panthers will be without Newton for this contest, but Anderson has filled in admirably in the past. There's a drop off at QB, but certainly not a gaping hole like on some other NFL teams. Remember that the Buccaneers will be expected to be without their own star on the defensive line in Gerald McCoy. With other injuries on the D line, the loss off McCoy is a devastating blow for that unit. Largely, this Buccaneers team can't get out of its own way. Winston is a firm example, as he's accounted for double-digit turnovers already this season. This is a continued trend with Tampa Bay, as the yardage numbers are sound, but the efficiency continues to be a major dilemma.
Pick: Panthers
Mike Clay
Score: Carolina 27, Tampa Bay 21
