[h=1]Early betting look for Week 7: Why it's time to buy Auburn[/h]Will Harris
Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Red River Rivalry was full of weirdness as usual, Rutgers produced one of the ugliest offensive box scores ever, Alabama and Clemson delivered impressive road wins, and Washington ended Oregon, though the Ducks will be back in the mix (and back on our playlist) if they're sharp enough to trade in Mark Helfrich for rising star Scott Frost at season's end.
A new look poll comes out Monday, as Week 6 saw six of the AP's top 17 lose. In looking to Week 7 we'll check in on the most rapidly improving team in the SEC, seek value with a team on a four-game losing streak whose production belies the scoreboard, tell you which overrated team it's time to start fading like you mean it, plus wonder whether Houston will rebound and if the value has run out on the nation's pointspread kings.
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
Auburn Tigers
This team is getting better and better. The kicking game is very strong, and we've always thought Gus Malzahn is an underrated special teams genius. The Steele Magnolias defense has stayed much healthier and played faster this year in a similar but somewhat simpler scheme, and now the offense is starting to catch up to the other two phases<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Sean White is steadily improving under center, as is his timing and chemistry with a very green receiving corps that might be the most talented group overall Auburn has ever had at that position. Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are developing into a formidable thunder-and-lightning duo at tailback. If we polled SEC fans on which team is the second best in the West right now, we'd guess Texas A&M, Ole Miss and LSU would be the top three vote-getters. We're not entirely sure what the best answer is either, but it could well be Auburn by the end of the season.
East Carolina Pirates
First-year coach Scottie Montgomery's charges have lost four straight by 19 points per game, but the Pirates have outgained those teams by more than 250 yards. An 11-3 turnover deficit and poor special teams are the main culprits. The latter won't be solved this year, but if this team can hold onto the ball, the high-powered passing game can do some damage. The team's third down and red zone defense have been more than solid, which are a pair of very encouraging markers. We won't be looking to really get behind this outfit until quarterbackPhilip Nelson is fully healthy, but here's a team that's already faced a very difficult non-league schedule and the two best teams in its own division. Better times are ahead.
[h=2]Sell[/h]
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Hawkeyes are 4-2 now and have all of their trophies in the house, but there are problems that aren't going away. Iowa can neither rush the ball nor defend the run like it needs to in order to succeed. Quarterback C.J. Beathardlooks perpetually out of sync. The job that coordinator Greg Davis did last year in crafting a productive attack without elite open-field playmakers was a one-time offer.
Tennessee Volunteers
This isn't the Vols' first appearance in this section, but bettors should still keep selling. Tennessee entered last week leading the nation in fumbles but somehow plus-one in turnover margin. The luck ran out with seven giveaways in College Station and now ball security is at levels unseen since the Bo Pelini/Taylor Martinez era at Nebraska. This team continues to play poor situational football and display costly losing habits. The talent creates decent production, but Tennessee never wins the battle of mistakes and now injuries are mounting as well. It's time to drop the hammer on the Vols.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 7[/h]
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Houston Cougars (-20.5)
We keep writing about bubble-burst teams because it's such an important and profitable concept in the expanded playoff era. Conference titles are devalued everywhere, while mainstream media and casual fans have little interest in the national scene beyond the identities of playoff contenders. Notre Dame faces the biggest challenge getting off the mat when the expectation bubble pops because the Irish have no league race to run. But even those who have a conference home sometimes catch playoff fever and lose sight of that as well. Remember Oregon's DeAnthony Thomas's mid-2013 open admission that the team didn't care about the Rose Bowl, and that it was national championship or bust? No real surprise, then, when the second loss immediately followed the first.
Will Houston go in the tank now? Maybe, and if so the visiting Hurricane are not a bad hammer to have this week. Tulsa is rolling offensively and certainly sees the Cougars as a beatable peer, even if a rightful favorite this year. Houston is by far Tulsa's most-played AAC leaguemate, and the series has been very competitive. The teams have met every year but one since 2005, and while the Cougars have won seven of those, only two were by the margin that oddsmakers are quoting here.
We'll be watching the Cougars closely the rest of the way for signs that motivation isn't what it once was, but there's reason for optimism that the bubble-burst hypothesis won't apply here. Tom Herman doesn't emphasize playoff berths and national championships, even as a little-discussed top-of-the-pyramid goal. The mission in the Houston program is to win the AAC. To the extent that the new postseason order is even addressed, it's to take the position that an AAC title should, in most years, come with the Group of Five's automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl game. A major bowl berth is a carrot that Herman dangles, but playoffs are not talked about in this program, and that gives the Cougars a better chance to rally than some of their peers might have in the same position.
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners (-10)
Kansas State found some offensive answers against Texas Tech, and the Big 12's top defense survived a Heisman-caliber first-half onslaught from Patrick Mahomes, shutting the Red Raiders down for most of the second stanza. The matchup with Oklahoma is strength-on-strength, as the Sooners offense has been scary the past two games. It's also officially weakness-on-weakness, as an Oklahoma defense that was already suffering from the loss of too many of last year's key leaders and playmakers is now sporting an epic injury list. When the Sooners have the ball, the two best units in the Big 12 will be on the field. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder will try to coax some production out of his green offense while the host counters with thin lines of defense.
Oklahoma won this game 55-0 last year, but the Cats have covered all three meetings in Norman since Snyder returned to the sideline, winning the last two.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]There are now only six teams priced lower than 20-1 to win the national title at the Westgate Superbook. Texas A&M at 20-1 is the only other team priced lower than 30-1. Our view hasn't changed since the aftermath of Week 1, when we wrote that the only four we take seriously are Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]National title odds[/h]Courtesy of Westgate SuperBook
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</aside>Miami had peaked at 20-1 last week, but fell to 50-1 following the home loss to Florida State. Houston, 8-1 last week, likewise crashed to 50-1.
Oklahoma survived Texas and jumped up in the pecking order, moving from 50-1 to 30-1. Baylor and Nebraska made modest gains, moving respectively from 40-1 to 30-1 and 50-1 to 40-1.
Virginia Tech is officially on the oddsmakers' radar. The Hokies moved from 300-1 to 40-1 after routing North Carolina.
The other remaining unbeatens -- West Virginia, Boise State and Western Michigan -- are getting no love. The Mountaineers opened at 300-1 and are only down to 200-1, Boise State remains 100-1 where it opened, and Western hasn't yet cracked the Westgate's board.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]The only team undefeated at the betting window this year is Colorado, but the Buffaloes were fortunate to cover in a loss to USC on Saturday. The Trojans controlled the game handily, but kept the visitor in it with four turnovers (and a heady slide by end-zone boundJuJu Smith-Schuster.) A program that had only been favored in two of its 46 Pac-12 games is now laying double digits in conference for the second time in three weeks. Visiting Arizona State is getting double digits for just the third time in five years under Todd Graham. The Sun Devils delivered outright wins on the first occasions.
We write a lot about avoiding bad favorites, and usually, weak programs have a poor -- if often limited -- track record of laying points. UTSA, however, is only in its sixth year of football yet is installed as a road favorite for the ninth time. The results to date have been surprisingly good, as the Runners are 6-2 both straight up and against the number.
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Special to ESPN.com
ESPN INSIDER
The Red River Rivalry was full of weirdness as usual, Rutgers produced one of the ugliest offensive box scores ever, Alabama and Clemson delivered impressive road wins, and Washington ended Oregon, though the Ducks will be back in the mix (and back on our playlist) if they're sharp enough to trade in Mark Helfrich for rising star Scott Frost at season's end.
A new look poll comes out Monday, as Week 6 saw six of the AP's top 17 lose. In looking to Week 7 we'll check in on the most rapidly improving team in the SEC, seek value with a team on a four-game losing streak whose production belies the scoreboard, tell you which overrated team it's time to start fading like you mean it, plus wonder whether Houston will rebound and if the value has run out on the nation's pointspread kings.
[h=2]Portfolio Checkup[/h][h=2]Buy[/h]
This team is getting better and better. The kicking game is very strong, and we've always thought Gus Malzahn is an underrated special teams genius. The Steele Magnolias defense has stayed much healthier and played faster this year in a similar but somewhat simpler scheme, and now the offense is starting to catch up to the other two phases<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Sean White is steadily improving under center, as is his timing and chemistry with a very green receiving corps that might be the most talented group overall Auburn has ever had at that position. Kamryn Pettway and Kerryon Johnson are developing into a formidable thunder-and-lightning duo at tailback. If we polled SEC fans on which team is the second best in the West right now, we'd guess Texas A&M, Ole Miss and LSU would be the top three vote-getters. We're not entirely sure what the best answer is either, but it could well be Auburn by the end of the season.
First-year coach Scottie Montgomery's charges have lost four straight by 19 points per game, but the Pirates have outgained those teams by more than 250 yards. An 11-3 turnover deficit and poor special teams are the main culprits. The latter won't be solved this year, but if this team can hold onto the ball, the high-powered passing game can do some damage. The team's third down and red zone defense have been more than solid, which are a pair of very encouraging markers. We won't be looking to really get behind this outfit until quarterbackPhilip Nelson is fully healthy, but here's a team that's already faced a very difficult non-league schedule and the two best teams in its own division. Better times are ahead.
[h=2]Sell[/h]
The Hawkeyes are 4-2 now and have all of their trophies in the house, but there are problems that aren't going away. Iowa can neither rush the ball nor defend the run like it needs to in order to succeed. Quarterback C.J. Beathardlooks perpetually out of sync. The job that coordinator Greg Davis did last year in crafting a productive attack without elite open-field playmakers was a one-time offer.
This isn't the Vols' first appearance in this section, but bettors should still keep selling. Tennessee entered last week leading the nation in fumbles but somehow plus-one in turnover margin. The luck ran out with seven giveaways in College Station and now ball security is at levels unseen since the Bo Pelini/Taylor Martinez era at Nebraska. This team continues to play poor situational football and display costly losing habits. The talent creates decent production, but Tennessee never wins the battle of mistakes and now injuries are mounting as well. It's time to drop the hammer on the Vols.
[h=2]Games of interest, Week 7[/h]
We keep writing about bubble-burst teams because it's such an important and profitable concept in the expanded playoff era. Conference titles are devalued everywhere, while mainstream media and casual fans have little interest in the national scene beyond the identities of playoff contenders. Notre Dame faces the biggest challenge getting off the mat when the expectation bubble pops because the Irish have no league race to run. But even those who have a conference home sometimes catch playoff fever and lose sight of that as well. Remember Oregon's DeAnthony Thomas's mid-2013 open admission that the team didn't care about the Rose Bowl, and that it was national championship or bust? No real surprise, then, when the second loss immediately followed the first.
Will Houston go in the tank now? Maybe, and if so the visiting Hurricane are not a bad hammer to have this week. Tulsa is rolling offensively and certainly sees the Cougars as a beatable peer, even if a rightful favorite this year. Houston is by far Tulsa's most-played AAC leaguemate, and the series has been very competitive. The teams have met every year but one since 2005, and while the Cougars have won seven of those, only two were by the margin that oddsmakers are quoting here.
We'll be watching the Cougars closely the rest of the way for signs that motivation isn't what it once was, but there's reason for optimism that the bubble-burst hypothesis won't apply here. Tom Herman doesn't emphasize playoff berths and national championships, even as a little-discussed top-of-the-pyramid goal. The mission in the Houston program is to win the AAC. To the extent that the new postseason order is even addressed, it's to take the position that an AAC title should, in most years, come with the Group of Five's automatic bid to a New Year's Six bowl game. A major bowl berth is a carrot that Herman dangles, but playoffs are not talked about in this program, and that gives the Cougars a better chance to rally than some of their peers might have in the same position.
Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma Sooners (-10)
Kansas State found some offensive answers against Texas Tech, and the Big 12's top defense survived a Heisman-caliber first-half onslaught from Patrick Mahomes, shutting the Red Raiders down for most of the second stanza. The matchup with Oklahoma is strength-on-strength, as the Sooners offense has been scary the past two games. It's also officially weakness-on-weakness, as an Oklahoma defense that was already suffering from the loss of too many of last year's key leaders and playmakers is now sporting an epic injury list. When the Sooners have the ball, the two best units in the Big 12 will be on the field. Meanwhile, Bill Snyder will try to coax some production out of his green offense while the host counters with thin lines of defense.
Oklahoma won this game 55-0 last year, but the Cats have covered all three meetings in Norman since Snyder returned to the sideline, winning the last two.
[h=2]Movers and Shakers[/h]There are now only six teams priced lower than 20-1 to win the national title at the Westgate Superbook. Texas A&M at 20-1 is the only other team priced lower than 30-1. Our view hasn't changed since the aftermath of Week 1, when we wrote that the only four we take seriously are Alabama, Michigan, Ohio State and Washington.
<aside class="inline inline-with-table" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-family: BentonSans, -apple-system, Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; border: 1px solid rgb(220, 221, 223); clear: both; margin: 6px 0px 18px; padding: 15px; width: 565px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><header class="inline-header" style="box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 12px; overflow: hidden;">[h=1]National title odds[/h]Courtesy of Westgate SuperBook
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| TEAM | LAST WEEK | CURRENT |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Ohio State | 5-2 | 5-2 |
| Washington | 7-1 | 6-1 |
| Clemson | 7-1 | 6-1 |
| Michigan | 12-1 | 7-1 |
| Louisville | 8-1 | 8-1 |
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</aside>Miami had peaked at 20-1 last week, but fell to 50-1 following the home loss to Florida State. Houston, 8-1 last week, likewise crashed to 50-1.
Oklahoma survived Texas and jumped up in the pecking order, moving from 50-1 to 30-1. Baylor and Nebraska made modest gains, moving respectively from 40-1 to 30-1 and 50-1 to 40-1.
Virginia Tech is officially on the oddsmakers' radar. The Hokies moved from 300-1 to 40-1 after routing North Carolina.
The other remaining unbeatens -- West Virginia, Boise State and Western Michigan -- are getting no love. The Mountaineers opened at 300-1 and are only down to 200-1, Boise State remains 100-1 where it opened, and Western hasn't yet cracked the Westgate's board.
[h=2]Chalk Bits[/h]The only team undefeated at the betting window this year is Colorado, but the Buffaloes were fortunate to cover in a loss to USC on Saturday. The Trojans controlled the game handily, but kept the visitor in it with four turnovers (and a heady slide by end-zone boundJuJu Smith-Schuster.) A program that had only been favored in two of its 46 Pac-12 games is now laying double digits in conference for the second time in three weeks. Visiting Arizona State is getting double digits for just the third time in five years under Todd Graham. The Sun Devils delivered outright wins on the first occasions.
We write a lot about avoiding bad favorites, and usually, weak programs have a poor -- if often limited -- track record of laying points. UTSA, however, is only in its sixth year of football yet is installed as a road favorite for the ninth time. The results to date have been surprisingly good, as the Runners are 6-2 both straight up and against the number.
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