Week 6 NFL betting line moves
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 7 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- When the Westgate SuperBook puts up its NFL openers around 4:30 p.m. PT Sundays, they usually put up every game for the next week even for teams that are playing in the Sunday and Monday night games.
So, it was a little surprising that after Thursday night's game flashed that Denver was a 2.5-point road favorite at San Diego, the game then disappeared off the board. Of course, the line had been put up early at 4:14 p.m. PT and the Broncos and Chargers were still playing their Week 5 games.
But then the games ended and all of the Week 6 lines were available for wagering with the exception of Carolina-New Orleans, which was off the board because Panthers QB Cam Newton hasn't been cleared from the league's concussion protocol yet.
So let's take a look at the Week 6 lines and how they've been bet into place (lines in parentheses are from the Westgate SuperBook as of the kickoff of the Monday Night Football game):
(The line for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of the kickoff of Monday Night Football.)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Thursday: Denver (-3,120) at San Diego: The advance line on this game last week was Broncos -3. After Denver lost at home to Atlanta and San Diego lost at Oakland, the Westgate reopened it on Sunday afternoon at Broncos -2.5. Other books opened with a mix of some at 2.5 and some at 3 and the early money came in on the Broncos to move it to 3 with several books increased the juice to make it -3 (-120). The Westgate joined those books at 4:40 p.m. PT Monday. If Trevor Siemian is cleared to play, I'm guessing it'll go to 3.5 and might end up there anyway even if Paxton Lynch is pressed into duty again.
Cincinnati at New England (-8.5): This line was Patriots -7 last week but after Tom Brady looked sharp in his return (though he said he was rusty) in beating the Browns 33-13 and the Bengals lost 28-14 to the Cowboys, the Westgate pushed it over the key number to 7.5. Early bettors still bet the Patriots, especially as other books ranged from -8 to -9.5. It look less than an hour for the Westgate to move to Patriots -8 and then it was bet to -8.5 just after noon Monday. It looks like the line will stay in the 7.5 to 9.5 area before the weekend.
Baltimore at New York Giants (-3, EVEN): The advance line was Giants -3 (EVEN) last week and stayed the same after the Ravens lost 16-10 to the Redskins. The game was taken off the board with the Giants playing Sunday night, but after pushing as 7-point underdogs in their 23-16 loss at Green Bay, the line was put right back up at -3 (EVEN). Other books are a mix of New York -2.5/-3 with juice on the side that bettors are looking to take and will probably waver between the two all week.
Carolina (OFF) at New Orleans: This game was off the board last week at the Westgate due to the uncertain status of Newton. It was kept off the board at most books Sunday and Monday (which might have been the case anyway with the Panthers playing on Monday Night Football), however, CG Technology did put up Carolina -2 and it was bet to -3 so someone obviously thought that was a cheap price if Newton is cleared to play.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami: The Steelers were -4.5 on the advance line but after they beat the Jets 31-13 and the Dolphins lost 30-17 at home to the Titans, the Westgate reopened at Pittsburgh -7. Other books went even higher, opening between 7.5 and 8. The Westgate went to -7.5 within an hour but then got quickly bet back down to 7, where it sat until Monday afternoon when more Pittsburgh money moved it back up to 7.5.
Jacksonville at Chicago (-2): The advance line was Bears -2 and after the Bears lost 29-23 to the Colts (and with the Jaguars on their bye week after beating the Colts in London), it was put back up right at Bears -2. There are a few books at 1.5 or 2.5, but the majority are sitting right at 2.
San Francisco at Buffalo (-8): The Bills were -7 on the advance line and after the 49ers lost to the Cardinals on Thursday night and the Bills beat the Rams 30-19 Sunday, the Westgate moved the line to -7.5. Others opened a little higher and the Westgate moved to Buffalo -8 Monday afternoon. This looks like another game that will float in the 7.5 to 9.5 range (though on the lower end).
Los Angeles at Detroit (-3.5): The advance line was Detroit -3 (EVEN), but after the Lions upset the previously unbeaten Eagles and the Rams lost to the Bills, the Westgate adjusted it all the way up to -3.5. That looks like the right number, though some books are at -3 with heavy juice.
Cleveland at Tennessee (-7): The Titans were -5.5 on the advance line, but after they beat the Dolphins and the Browns suffered another loss, the Westgate moved it a whole point to -6.5. The majority of other books also went with 6.5, but early bettors jumped at the chance to lay less than a touchdown against the Browns and bet it up to -7.
Philadelphia (-2) at Washington: The Westgate had this game at pick 'em last week, but after the Redskins beat the Ravens and the Eagles lost to the Lions, the Westgate made Washington -1. Some books agreed while others made the Eagles a short favorite. Early bettors sided with Philadelphia, which has now been bet to favoritism at all books here and offshore.
Kansas City at Oakland (PK): The advance line was Raiders -1.5, but after they beat the Chargers 34-31 (but didn't cover as 3.5-point favorites), the line was reopened at -1. Other books ranged between pick 'em and -2, but money has come in on the Chiefs (who are coming off a bye, a role that coach Andy Reid is known for) and the line was down to pick 'em at the Westgate, though the majority of Vegas books were still at Oakland -1 when the Monday night game kicked off.
Atlanta at Seattle (-6): The Seahawks were -7 on the advance line and even after Atlanta won 23-16 at Denver (and with Seattle on its bye) the Westgate put it back up at Seattle -7. Predictably, it got bet down to 6.5 pretty quick (if you can sense that I wish I had grabbed the Falcons +7, you're right) but now looks like it's settling at 6 as of Monday afternoon.
<article class="ad-300" style="box-sizing: border-box; clear: both; overflow: hidden; position: relative; z-index: 1000026; margin: 0px 0px 10px 10px; float: right; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", Times, serif; font-size: 16px;">
</article>Dallas at Green Bay (-4): The advance line on this game was actually Green Bay -6.5 last week but after the Cowboys won again over the Bengals and the Packers pushed in their 23-16 win over the Giants, the Westgate adjusted it down to Green Bay -4.5. That's where most other books opened as well, but we saw a move to 4 on Monday afternoon at the Westgate and some major offshore books.
Indianapolis at Houston (-3): The Texans were -3.5 on the advance line but after they lost to the Vikings and the Bears beat the Colts, it was adjusted down to -3 (-120). Some books went with 3.5, but the majority were at -3 or -3 (-120) as of Monday night.
New York Jets at Arizona (-8): The advance line of Arizona -6.5 was kept off board Sunday afternoon withCarson Palmer still questionable. The Cardinals won Thursday night (with Drew Stanton) and the Jets lost at Pittsburgh on Sunday, so when the line did go up Monday morning the Westgate increased it to -7.5. It was bet up to -8 by Monday afternoon though the majority of Vegas books were holding at 7.5.
Dave TuleyESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
Editor's note: This column appears each week to give ESPN Chalk readers a first look at the next week's NFL lines. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook also puts out the advance lines on the prior Tuesday (so Week 7 lines will be posted this upcoming Tuesday), and we'll examine how the weekend action affected those lines from the openers on the Don Best odds screen. We'll also look at which lines were the first to be bet by the professional bettors in Vegas (traditionally, those are the bettors most likely to fire away on these openers, though it's not the exclusive club that it used to be).
LAS VEGAS -- When the Westgate SuperBook puts up its NFL openers around 4:30 p.m. PT Sundays, they usually put up every game for the next week even for teams that are playing in the Sunday and Monday night games.
So, it was a little surprising that after Thursday night's game flashed that Denver was a 2.5-point road favorite at San Diego, the game then disappeared off the board. Of course, the line had been put up early at 4:14 p.m. PT and the Broncos and Chargers were still playing their Week 5 games.
But then the games ended and all of the Week 6 lines were available for wagering with the exception of Carolina-New Orleans, which was off the board because Panthers QB Cam Newton hasn't been cleared from the league's concussion protocol yet.
So let's take a look at the Week 6 lines and how they've been bet into place (lines in parentheses are from the Westgate SuperBook as of the kickoff of the Monday Night Football game):
(The line for each game is from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of the kickoff of Monday Night Football.)
<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Thursday: Denver (-3,120) at San Diego: The advance line on this game last week was Broncos -3. After Denver lost at home to Atlanta and San Diego lost at Oakland, the Westgate reopened it on Sunday afternoon at Broncos -2.5. Other books opened with a mix of some at 2.5 and some at 3 and the early money came in on the Broncos to move it to 3 with several books increased the juice to make it -3 (-120). The Westgate joined those books at 4:40 p.m. PT Monday. If Trevor Siemian is cleared to play, I'm guessing it'll go to 3.5 and might end up there anyway even if Paxton Lynch is pressed into duty again.
Cincinnati at New England (-8.5): This line was Patriots -7 last week but after Tom Brady looked sharp in his return (though he said he was rusty) in beating the Browns 33-13 and the Bengals lost 28-14 to the Cowboys, the Westgate pushed it over the key number to 7.5. Early bettors still bet the Patriots, especially as other books ranged from -8 to -9.5. It look less than an hour for the Westgate to move to Patriots -8 and then it was bet to -8.5 just after noon Monday. It looks like the line will stay in the 7.5 to 9.5 area before the weekend.
Baltimore at New York Giants (-3, EVEN): The advance line was Giants -3 (EVEN) last week and stayed the same after the Ravens lost 16-10 to the Redskins. The game was taken off the board with the Giants playing Sunday night, but after pushing as 7-point underdogs in their 23-16 loss at Green Bay, the line was put right back up at -3 (EVEN). Other books are a mix of New York -2.5/-3 with juice on the side that bettors are looking to take and will probably waver between the two all week.
Carolina (OFF) at New Orleans: This game was off the board last week at the Westgate due to the uncertain status of Newton. It was kept off the board at most books Sunday and Monday (which might have been the case anyway with the Panthers playing on Monday Night Football), however, CG Technology did put up Carolina -2 and it was bet to -3 so someone obviously thought that was a cheap price if Newton is cleared to play.
Pittsburgh (-7.5) at Miami: The Steelers were -4.5 on the advance line but after they beat the Jets 31-13 and the Dolphins lost 30-17 at home to the Titans, the Westgate reopened at Pittsburgh -7. Other books went even higher, opening between 7.5 and 8. The Westgate went to -7.5 within an hour but then got quickly bet back down to 7, where it sat until Monday afternoon when more Pittsburgh money moved it back up to 7.5.
Jacksonville at Chicago (-2): The advance line was Bears -2 and after the Bears lost 29-23 to the Colts (and with the Jaguars on their bye week after beating the Colts in London), it was put back up right at Bears -2. There are a few books at 1.5 or 2.5, but the majority are sitting right at 2.
San Francisco at Buffalo (-8): The Bills were -7 on the advance line and after the 49ers lost to the Cardinals on Thursday night and the Bills beat the Rams 30-19 Sunday, the Westgate moved the line to -7.5. Others opened a little higher and the Westgate moved to Buffalo -8 Monday afternoon. This looks like another game that will float in the 7.5 to 9.5 range (though on the lower end).
Los Angeles at Detroit (-3.5): The advance line was Detroit -3 (EVEN), but after the Lions upset the previously unbeaten Eagles and the Rams lost to the Bills, the Westgate adjusted it all the way up to -3.5. That looks like the right number, though some books are at -3 with heavy juice.
Cleveland at Tennessee (-7): The Titans were -5.5 on the advance line, but after they beat the Dolphins and the Browns suffered another loss, the Westgate moved it a whole point to -6.5. The majority of other books also went with 6.5, but early bettors jumped at the chance to lay less than a touchdown against the Browns and bet it up to -7.
Philadelphia (-2) at Washington: The Westgate had this game at pick 'em last week, but after the Redskins beat the Ravens and the Eagles lost to the Lions, the Westgate made Washington -1. Some books agreed while others made the Eagles a short favorite. Early bettors sided with Philadelphia, which has now been bet to favoritism at all books here and offshore.
Kansas City at Oakland (PK): The advance line was Raiders -1.5, but after they beat the Chargers 34-31 (but didn't cover as 3.5-point favorites), the line was reopened at -1. Other books ranged between pick 'em and -2, but money has come in on the Chiefs (who are coming off a bye, a role that coach Andy Reid is known for) and the line was down to pick 'em at the Westgate, though the majority of Vegas books were still at Oakland -1 when the Monday night game kicked off.
Atlanta at Seattle (-6): The Seahawks were -7 on the advance line and even after Atlanta won 23-16 at Denver (and with Seattle on its bye) the Westgate put it back up at Seattle -7. Predictably, it got bet down to 6.5 pretty quick (if you can sense that I wish I had grabbed the Falcons +7, you're right) but now looks like it's settling at 6 as of Monday afternoon.
</article>Dallas at Green Bay (-4): The advance line on this game was actually Green Bay -6.5 last week but after the Cowboys won again over the Bengals and the Packers pushed in their 23-16 win over the Giants, the Westgate adjusted it down to Green Bay -4.5. That's where most other books opened as well, but we saw a move to 4 on Monday afternoon at the Westgate and some major offshore books.
