[h=1]Vegas handicappers rank every NFL team: Patriots No. 1[/h]Dave Tuley
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Tom Brady returned from his suspension and led the New England Patriots to an expected 33-13 victory as 10-point favorites over theCleveland Browns, so they maintain their spot as the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
However, the Minnesota Vikingsclosed the gap as the league's lone remaining undefeated team following their 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. The Pittsburgh Steelers,Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks all won on Sunday to complete our top five. The defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos dropped to No. 6 after their 23-16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, who improved to 4-1 and are our No. 8 team.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 6 value plays (11-4 ATS so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
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Movin' on up
The biggest increase in Week 5 was the Tennessee Titans being upgraded 1.5 points for their 30-17 win at the Miami Dolphins after closing as 2.5-point road underdogs. That also moved the Titans from a tie for the No. 26 spot last week up to No. 22. Other teams improving by a full point were the Vikings for their 18-point win over the Texans as 6.5-point favorites, the Dallas Cowboys for their 28-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals as 2.5-point home underdogs, the Buffalo Bills for their 30-19 win over the Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point road favorites and the Detroit Lions for their 24-23 upset of the previously undefeatedPhiladelphia Eagles as 3.5-point home underdogs.
Dropping down
This section is usually a reverse of the "Movin' Up" section, but this week we had just two teams downgraded by a full point: The Bengals for that 14-point loss to the Cowboys as 2.5-point road favorites and the New York Jets for their 31-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 9.5-point road underdogs.
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[h=2]Week 6 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 11-4 ATS (73.3 percent) so far this season after going 1-1 ATS in Week 5 with the win on the Bills +2.5 (yes, we gave it out on Tuesday when Buffalo was a 2.5-point underdog and it closed as a 2.5-point favorite and still covered) and the loss on the Baltimore Ravens -4 as they fell 16-10 to theWashington Redskins.
We have three plays that rise to the level of being value plays this week.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 6 games during the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
[h=3]Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions[/h]Vegas consensus line: Detroit -3.5
Vegas Ranks: Detroit -0.5 (18-17.5)
Yes, the Lions upset the Eagles on Sunday, but they're also the same team that lost to the Bears the week before, so we only have them rated 0.5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field. With Detroit's home-field advantage, we only see this line being -3 at the most, yet there are plenty of Rams +3.5s available as of Tuesday morning. (Note: Just like the Bills last week, this line looks like it's moving in our direction so take the Rams before it drops.)
The play: Rams +3.5.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
Vegas consensus line: Green Bay -4
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -4.5 (26-21.5)
Even with the Cowboys moving up the rankings with Dak Prescott andEzekiel Elliott, our raw numbers have the Packers as 4.5 points better than the Cowboys on a neutral field. With Green Bay's considerable home-field advantage, we believe this line should be at least a full touchdown, yet Packers backers only have to give 4 points at the majority of Vegas and offshore books as of Tuesday morning.
The play: Packers -4.
[h=3]New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Vegas consensus line: Arizona -7.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -4 (24-20)
Our raw numbers have the Cardinals as 4 points better than the Jets and this is on the assumption that Carson Palmer will be back. With Arizona's home-field advantage, we have this line being -7 at the most and possibly only -6.5, but the Jets are now available at more than a touchdown. It's +8 at a few Vegas books, though +7.5 is the more common line.
The play: Jets +7.5.
ESPN Staff Writer
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- Tom Brady returned from his suspension and led the New England Patriots to an expected 33-13 victory as 10-point favorites over theCleveland Browns, so they maintain their spot as the No. 1 team in the NFL Vegas Rankings.
However, the Minnesota Vikingsclosed the gap as the league's lone remaining undefeated team following their 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. The Pittsburgh Steelers,Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks all won on Sunday to complete our top five. The defending Super Bowl champion Denver Broncos dropped to No. 6 after their 23-16 loss to the Atlanta Falcons, who improved to 4-1 and are our No. 8 team.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 6 value plays (11-4 ATS so far this season) using this week's power ratings:
Note: The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled by taking the average of the power ratings of ESPN Chalk handicappers, including Erin Rynning, yours truly and ESPN's Football Power Index, and are used to compare two teams as if they were to meet on a neutral field (after which most teams get 2.5 points for home-field advantage) and can be used to compare to the current point spread.
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Movin' on up
The biggest increase in Week 5 was the Tennessee Titans being upgraded 1.5 points for their 30-17 win at the Miami Dolphins after closing as 2.5-point road underdogs. That also moved the Titans from a tie for the No. 26 spot last week up to No. 22. Other teams improving by a full point were the Vikings for their 18-point win over the Texans as 6.5-point favorites, the Dallas Cowboys for their 28-14 win over the Cincinnati Bengals as 2.5-point home underdogs, the Buffalo Bills for their 30-19 win over the Los Angeles Rams as 2.5-point road favorites and the Detroit Lions for their 24-23 upset of the previously undefeatedPhiladelphia Eagles as 3.5-point home underdogs.
Dropping down
This section is usually a reverse of the "Movin' Up" section, but this week we had just two teams downgraded by a full point: The Bengals for that 14-point loss to the Cowboys as 2.5-point road favorites and the New York Jets for their 31-13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers as 9.5-point road underdogs.
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| RANK | TEAM | OCT. 4 | OCT. 11 | SB ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New England | 27 | 27.5 | 7-2 |
| 2 | Minnesota | 26 | 27 | 8-1 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh | 26 | 26.5 | 6-1 |
| 4 | Green Bay | 26 | 26 | 5-1 |
| 5 | Seattle | 25.5 | 25.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | Denver | 25.5 | 25 | 12-1 |
| 7 | Arizona | 24 | 24 | 18-1 |
| 8 | Atlanta | 23 | 23.5 | 20-1 |
| 9 | Carolina | 23 | 22.5 | 40-1 |
| T-10 | Cincinnati | 23 | 22 | 50-1 |
| T-10 | Philadelphia | 22.5 | 22 | 30-1 |
| T-10 | Buffalo | 21 | 22 | 60-1 |
| T-13 | Dallas | 20.5 | 21.5 | 18-1 |
| T-13 | Kansas City | 21.5 | 21.5 | 30-1 |
| T-15 | Oakland | 21 | 21 | 16-1 |
| T-15 | Houston | 21.5 | 21 | 40-1 |
| 17 | Baltimore | 21.5 | 20.5 | 50-1 |
| T-18 | New York (N) | 20 | 20 | 60-1 |
| T-18 | New York (A) | 21 | 20 | 300-1 |
| T-20 | Indianapolis | 20 | 19.5 | 60-1 |
| T-20 | San Diego | 19.5 | 19.5 | 100-1 |
| 22 | Tennessee | 17 | 18.5 | 100-1 |
| T-23 | Washington | 18 | 18 | 40-1 |
| T-23 | Detroit | 17 | 18 | 100-1 |
| T-23 | Jacksonville | 18 | 18 | 200-1 |
| T-26 | Los Angeles | 18 | 17.5 | 100-1 |
| T-26 | Tampa Bay | 17 | 17.5 | 200-1 |
| 28 | New Orleans | 17 | 17 | 300-1 |
| 29 | Miami | 18 | 16.5 | 300-1 |
| 30 | Chicago | 15.5 | 16 | 500-1 |
| 31 | San Francisco | 15.5 | 15 | 5000-1 |
| 32 | Cleveland | 13.5 | 13 | 9999-1 |
| Odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday, Oct. 11 |
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[h=2]Week 6 value plays[/h]Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: A team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are 11-4 ATS (73.3 percent) so far this season after going 1-1 ATS in Week 5 with the win on the Bills +2.5 (yes, we gave it out on Tuesday when Buffalo was a 2.5-point underdog and it closed as a 2.5-point favorite and still covered) and the loss on the Baltimore Ravens -4 as they fell 16-10 to theWashington Redskins.
We have three plays that rise to the level of being value plays this week.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 6 games during the weekend here at ESPN Chalk and ESPN Insider.)
Vegas Ranks: Detroit -0.5 (18-17.5)
Yes, the Lions upset the Eagles on Sunday, but they're also the same team that lost to the Bears the week before, so we only have them rated 0.5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field. With Detroit's home-field advantage, we only see this line being -3 at the most, yet there are plenty of Rams +3.5s available as of Tuesday morning. (Note: Just like the Bills last week, this line looks like it's moving in our direction so take the Rams before it drops.)
The play: Rams +3.5.
Vegas consensus line: Green Bay -4
Vegas Ranks: Green Bay -4.5 (26-21.5)
Even with the Cowboys moving up the rankings with Dak Prescott andEzekiel Elliott, our raw numbers have the Packers as 4.5 points better than the Cowboys on a neutral field. With Green Bay's considerable home-field advantage, we believe this line should be at least a full touchdown, yet Packers backers only have to give 4 points at the majority of Vegas and offshore books as of Tuesday morning.
The play: Packers -4.
[h=3]New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals[/h]Vegas consensus line: Arizona -7.5
Vegas Ranks: Arizona -4 (24-20)
Our raw numbers have the Cardinals as 4 points better than the Jets and this is on the assumption that Carson Palmer will be back. With Arizona's home-field advantage, we have this line being -7 at the most and possibly only -6.5, but the Jets are now available at more than a touchdown. It's +8 at a few Vegas books, though +7.5 is the more common line.
The play: Jets +7.5.
