Week 5 NFL betting recap
Week 5 NFL betting recap
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games. We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 5 action (plus Thursday's game). There wasn't any game that I would classify a "Bad Beat" until the Sunday nighter, though it could more accurately be called a "Bad Push" (though a Bad Beat for some and Lucky Cover for others).
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Green Bay (-7) in 23-16 home win/push over New York Giants
This takes some explaining, but first things first: the Packers were the right side of the vast majority of this game. They led 17-6 at halftime and they got back to a 14-point lead with 6:42 left in the game and had outgained the Giants 396-156 at that time. The Giants scored their one and only touchdown of the game with 2:54 to play on Odell Beckham Jr.'s tightrope-walking TD catch to have the game push against the closing line of Green Bay -7. But there were those that took a Bad Beat as the Packers' line was up to -7.5 from Tuesday through Thursday and also used in contests like the Westgate SuperContest, so those bettors/contest players had the right side but suffered a Bad Beat. Conversely, those that took the Giants +7.5 got in the back door and had to feel lucky with the result (myself included).
My takeaway was that both defenses played better than expected, especially as the over/under was 50, which was never threatened.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Arizona (-4.5) in 33-21 road win at San Francisco (Thursday)
After a scoreless first quarter (which is typical for the Cardinals), the 49ers took a 7-0 lead with 4:12 left in the half but the Cards responded to tie it before intermission and rolled in the second half. My biggest takeaway is that the Cardinals only outgained the 49ers 288-286 as they mostly relied on RB David Johnson (157 rushing yards) with Drew Stanton starting in place of Carson Palmer. The big difference was the Arizona defense, which set up 17 of the offense's points off of two interceptions and a recovery on a kickoff return (those short fields also helped turn an under into an over as it went over 42.5).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Based on the fundamentals, Arizona was expected to win by 5
Minnesota (-6.5) in 31-13 home win over Houston
The Vikings coasted as they jumped out to a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter before the Texans got on the board. The defense is still the key to Minnesota's success, though I also came away impressed with how it continues to spread the wealth on offense (seven different receivers had a catch). Matt Asiata was the leading rusher this week with 55 yards and the leading receiver was Adam Thielen with seven catches for 127 yards and a touchdown (who had him on their fantasy team?).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota by 16
New England (-10) in 33-13 road win at Cleveland
Tom Brady is, oh, pretty good. Brady threw for 406 yards and three TDs in his return, and even though the Browns had a few chances to get within the big 10-point spread, the Patriots were clearly the right side. The under 47.5 was a bit of a bad beat as the Patriots led 23-7 at halftime and scoring slowed down in the second half. My opinion coming in remained about the same: the Patriots look totally in control with Brady in the lineup and the Browns are a mess (Cody Kessler got knocked out of the game and Charlie Whitehurst was hobbled but kept playing).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England by 21
Detroit (+3.5) in 24-23 home upset of Philadelphia
The Lions were the right side, though it got dicey at the end. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and still led 21-10 at halftime. The Eagles rallied and took a 23-21 lead with 6:40 to play (but still not covering the spread) and had the ball at their own 45 with under 3 minutes to play and a chance to get a spread-covering FG or TD. However, a Ryan Mathews fumble led to Detroit's Matt Prater kicking the winning FG with 1:28 left. My takeaway is just that this proves that the adage "On Any Given Sunday ..." is alive and well. A week after the Lions lost to the Bears, they beat the previously undefeated Eagles (and looked like the better team most of the game).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Philadelphia by 8
Tennessee (+2.5) in 30-17 win at Miami
I'm still trying to figure out why the Dolphins were favored in the first place. Miami never led and the Titans appeared in control the whole way, leading 7-0, 14-7 and 24-14 before pulling away. My takeaway is that while we can downgrade the Dolphins, you can't upgrade the Titans too much. The defense played well but it was against the Dolphins; and while the offense did well withDeMarco Murray (121 rushing yards) setting up Marcus Mariota, he completed 20-of-29 passes but for just 163 yards, so he's still checking down and throwing short too often to really open up the offense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee by 14
Washington (+4) in 16-10 win at Baltimore
Even though the Ravens took a 10-6 lead early in the second quarter and held it until midway through the third quarter, the Redskins were never losing by more than the spread. They took a 13-10 lead on a Kirk Cousins-to-Pierre Garcon 21-yard TD pass with 8:28 left in the third and then added a Dustin Hopkins 27-yard FG with 0:14 left in the third to require the Ravens to score twice to cover (an apparent TD catch by Breshad Perriman was overturned in the final minute, but that would have given Baltimore the win but not the cover). This game was also the clearest under of the day. My biggest takeaway was that the Redskins' defense stepped up after allowing a TD on the Ravens' opening drive. They forced Joe Flacco to throw 46 times and sacked him three times.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington by 16
Atlanta (+4) in 23-16 road upset at Denver
The Falcons scored on a 9-play, 75-yard TD drive on their opening possession against the Broncos' vaunted defense and never looked back. Denver never got back within a TD until Brandon McManus' 45-yard FG with 0:14 to play. Julio Jones didn't have 300 receiving yards this week as Atlanta's game plan was to use Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman underneath (and rightly so and it helped Matt Ryan only get sacked twice). But more encouraging (since I have Falcons at 10-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl) is that the defense continued to improve, though it did benefit from playing rookie Paxton Lynch, who was sacked six times.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta by 12
Dallas (+2.5) in 28-14 home upset of Cincinnati
The Cowboys scored on their opening drive and rolled from there, leading 28-0 before the Bengals got on the board with two garbage-time TDs in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescottcontinued to impress, though Ezekiel Elliott starred with 134 yards on just 15 carries and two TDs. The rookies continue to lead the Dallas offense. The defense also stepped up and kept the Bengals' offense from getting into rhythm until it was too late, sacking Andy Dalton four times after having only six sacks in the first four games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas by 26
San Diego (+3.5) in 34-31 loss at Oakland
As stated above, the Chargers should have won the game, but the fact is they still covered as 3.5-point underdogs, though they did fall behind 34-24 onJamize Olawale's 1-yard TD run with 12:51 to play and needed Philip Rivers' 4-yard TD pass to Antonio Gates with 6:21 to play to get back in the back door. Not a lot of big takeaways from me in this one, as we already knew that both offenses are capable of putting up big yards and points but also that neither defense can be trusted to hold a lead.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego by 6
50/50 ATS Results
Indianapolis (-4) in 29-23 home win over Chicago
This was a coin-flip result. The Colts had spread-covering leads of 10-3, 13-6 and 19-13, but then the Bears actually took a 23-19 lead with 7:04 to play and looked like they would cover. However, Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton with a 35-yard TD pass with 3:43 left and a fumble by Chicago's Cameron Meredith on the ensuing Bears drive led to Adam Vinatieri kicking a 46-yard field goal for the Colts with 2:28 to play to get back over the spread. My takeaway from the game was that neither team's defense can be trusted to stop anyone. The Bears gained 522 yards with Jordan Howard gaining more than 100 yards for the third straight game and Meredith having a career day (nine catches 130 yards, TD) before his costly fumble.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago by 5
Pittsburgh (-9.5) in 31-13 home win overNew York Jets
Steelers backers might feel they had this the whole way, but they actually led 13-7 late in the first half. With the inflated point spread (it was bet from Pittsburgh -7 to -9.5), the Steelers weren't covering until they took a 24-13 lead with 14:55 left on Ben Roethlisberger's 5-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown and the Jets remaining within one score of covering until Big Ben's 5-yard TD pass to Sammie Coates with 1:46 to play. The Steelers' offense didn't look that crisp, yet they still put 31 points on the board against a good defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh by 5
Buffalo (-2.5) in 30-19 road upset at Los Angeles
I could see where people would call the Bills the right side as they led 13-3 and ended up winning by 11 (more than a TD over the spread), but the Rams were in it most of the way and tied it 16-16 midway through the third quarter. The Bills took a 23-16 lead onNickell Robey-Coleman's 41-yard INT return with 3:54 left in the third quarter, but the Rams pulled within 23-19 on a Greg Zuerlein FG with 5:51 to play and the Bills didn't seal the win and cover until Marquise Goodwin's 6-yard TD from Tyrod Taylor with 2:37 left. These teams should continue to be competitive with defenses that are better than the 49 total points would indicate.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo by 11
Tampa Bay (+6) in 17-14 upset win at Carolina
The Bucs were in it the whole game, but I still consider this a 50/50 result as the Panthers held a 14-6 lead in the third quarter and then were in position to go up by a touchdown again when Derek Anderson threw into double coverage and was intercepted in the end zone by Tampa's Brent Grimes with 8:49 left. The Carolina defense responded after last week's debacle in Atlanta and played well enough to win, but the offense needed Cam Newton (Anderson also lost a fumble).
Week 5 NFL betting recap
ESPN INSIDER
LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games. We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 5 action (plus Thursday's game). There wasn't any game that I would classify a "Bad Beat" until the Sunday nighter, though it could more accurately be called a "Bad Push" (though a Bad Beat for some and Lucky Cover for others).
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad beats (clearly wrong sides)
Green Bay (-7) in 23-16 home win/push over New York Giants
This takes some explaining, but first things first: the Packers were the right side of the vast majority of this game. They led 17-6 at halftime and they got back to a 14-point lead with 6:42 left in the game and had outgained the Giants 396-156 at that time. The Giants scored their one and only touchdown of the game with 2:54 to play on Odell Beckham Jr.'s tightrope-walking TD catch to have the game push against the closing line of Green Bay -7. But there were those that took a Bad Beat as the Packers' line was up to -7.5 from Tuesday through Thursday and also used in contests like the Westgate SuperContest, so those bettors/contest players had the right side but suffered a Bad Beat. Conversely, those that took the Giants +7.5 got in the back door and had to feel lucky with the result (myself included).
My takeaway was that both defenses played better than expected, especially as the over/under was 50, which was never threatened.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Arizona (-4.5) in 33-21 road win at San Francisco (Thursday)
After a scoreless first quarter (which is typical for the Cardinals), the 49ers took a 7-0 lead with 4:12 left in the half but the Cards responded to tie it before intermission and rolled in the second half. My biggest takeaway is that the Cardinals only outgained the 49ers 288-286 as they mostly relied on RB David Johnson (157 rushing yards) with Drew Stanton starting in place of Carson Palmer. The big difference was the Arizona defense, which set up 17 of the offense's points off of two interceptions and a recovery on a kickoff return (those short fields also helped turn an under into an over as it went over 42.5).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Based on the fundamentals, Arizona was expected to win by 5
Minnesota (-6.5) in 31-13 home win over Houston
The Vikings coasted as they jumped out to a 24-0 lead midway through the second quarter before the Texans got on the board. The defense is still the key to Minnesota's success, though I also came away impressed with how it continues to spread the wealth on offense (seven different receivers had a catch). Matt Asiata was the leading rusher this week with 55 yards and the leading receiver was Adam Thielen with seven catches for 127 yards and a touchdown (who had him on their fantasy team?).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Minnesota by 16
New England (-10) in 33-13 road win at Cleveland
Tom Brady is, oh, pretty good. Brady threw for 406 yards and three TDs in his return, and even though the Browns had a few chances to get within the big 10-point spread, the Patriots were clearly the right side. The under 47.5 was a bit of a bad beat as the Patriots led 23-7 at halftime and scoring slowed down in the second half. My opinion coming in remained about the same: the Patriots look totally in control with Brady in the lineup and the Browns are a mess (Cody Kessler got knocked out of the game and Charlie Whitehurst was hobbled but kept playing).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England by 21
Detroit (+3.5) in 24-23 home upset of Philadelphia
The Lions were the right side, though it got dicey at the end. They jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first quarter and still led 21-10 at halftime. The Eagles rallied and took a 23-21 lead with 6:40 to play (but still not covering the spread) and had the ball at their own 45 with under 3 minutes to play and a chance to get a spread-covering FG or TD. However, a Ryan Mathews fumble led to Detroit's Matt Prater kicking the winning FG with 1:28 left. My takeaway is just that this proves that the adage "On Any Given Sunday ..." is alive and well. A week after the Lions lost to the Bears, they beat the previously undefeated Eagles (and looked like the better team most of the game).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Philadelphia by 8
Tennessee (+2.5) in 30-17 win at Miami
I'm still trying to figure out why the Dolphins were favored in the first place. Miami never led and the Titans appeared in control the whole way, leading 7-0, 14-7 and 24-14 before pulling away. My takeaway is that while we can downgrade the Dolphins, you can't upgrade the Titans too much. The defense played well but it was against the Dolphins; and while the offense did well withDeMarco Murray (121 rushing yards) setting up Marcus Mariota, he completed 20-of-29 passes but for just 163 yards, so he's still checking down and throwing short too often to really open up the offense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee by 14
Washington (+4) in 16-10 win at Baltimore
Even though the Ravens took a 10-6 lead early in the second quarter and held it until midway through the third quarter, the Redskins were never losing by more than the spread. They took a 13-10 lead on a Kirk Cousins-to-Pierre Garcon 21-yard TD pass with 8:28 left in the third and then added a Dustin Hopkins 27-yard FG with 0:14 left in the third to require the Ravens to score twice to cover (an apparent TD catch by Breshad Perriman was overturned in the final minute, but that would have given Baltimore the win but not the cover). This game was also the clearest under of the day. My biggest takeaway was that the Redskins' defense stepped up after allowing a TD on the Ravens' opening drive. They forced Joe Flacco to throw 46 times and sacked him three times.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington by 16
Atlanta (+4) in 23-16 road upset at Denver
The Falcons scored on a 9-play, 75-yard TD drive on their opening possession against the Broncos' vaunted defense and never looked back. Denver never got back within a TD until Brandon McManus' 45-yard FG with 0:14 to play. Julio Jones didn't have 300 receiving yards this week as Atlanta's game plan was to use Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman underneath (and rightly so and it helped Matt Ryan only get sacked twice). But more encouraging (since I have Falcons at 10-1 to win the division and 100-1 to win the Super Bowl) is that the defense continued to improve, though it did benefit from playing rookie Paxton Lynch, who was sacked six times.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta by 12
Dallas (+2.5) in 28-14 home upset of Cincinnati
The Cowboys scored on their opening drive and rolled from there, leading 28-0 before the Bengals got on the board with two garbage-time TDs in the fourth quarter. Dak Prescottcontinued to impress, though Ezekiel Elliott starred with 134 yards on just 15 carries and two TDs. The rookies continue to lead the Dallas offense. The defense also stepped up and kept the Bengals' offense from getting into rhythm until it was too late, sacking Andy Dalton four times after having only six sacks in the first four games.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas by 26
San Diego (+3.5) in 34-31 loss at Oakland
As stated above, the Chargers should have won the game, but the fact is they still covered as 3.5-point underdogs, though they did fall behind 34-24 onJamize Olawale's 1-yard TD run with 12:51 to play and needed Philip Rivers' 4-yard TD pass to Antonio Gates with 6:21 to play to get back in the back door. Not a lot of big takeaways from me in this one, as we already knew that both offenses are capable of putting up big yards and points but also that neither defense can be trusted to hold a lead.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: San Diego by 6
50/50 ATS Results
Indianapolis (-4) in 29-23 home win over Chicago
This was a coin-flip result. The Colts had spread-covering leads of 10-3, 13-6 and 19-13, but then the Bears actually took a 23-19 lead with 7:04 to play and looked like they would cover. However, Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton with a 35-yard TD pass with 3:43 left and a fumble by Chicago's Cameron Meredith on the ensuing Bears drive led to Adam Vinatieri kicking a 46-yard field goal for the Colts with 2:28 to play to get back over the spread. My takeaway from the game was that neither team's defense can be trusted to stop anyone. The Bears gained 522 yards with Jordan Howard gaining more than 100 yards for the third straight game and Meredith having a career day (nine catches 130 yards, TD) before his costly fumble.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Chicago by 5
Pittsburgh (-9.5) in 31-13 home win overNew York Jets
Steelers backers might feel they had this the whole way, but they actually led 13-7 late in the first half. With the inflated point spread (it was bet from Pittsburgh -7 to -9.5), the Steelers weren't covering until they took a 24-13 lead with 14:55 left on Ben Roethlisberger's 5-yard TD pass to Antonio Brown and the Jets remaining within one score of covering until Big Ben's 5-yard TD pass to Sammie Coates with 1:46 to play. The Steelers' offense didn't look that crisp, yet they still put 31 points on the board against a good defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Pittsburgh by 5
Buffalo (-2.5) in 30-19 road upset at Los Angeles
I could see where people would call the Bills the right side as they led 13-3 and ended up winning by 11 (more than a TD over the spread), but the Rams were in it most of the way and tied it 16-16 midway through the third quarter. The Bills took a 23-16 lead onNickell Robey-Coleman's 41-yard INT return with 3:54 left in the third quarter, but the Rams pulled within 23-19 on a Greg Zuerlein FG with 5:51 to play and the Bills didn't seal the win and cover until Marquise Goodwin's 6-yard TD from Tyrod Taylor with 2:37 left. These teams should continue to be competitive with defenses that are better than the 49 total points would indicate.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Buffalo by 11
Tampa Bay (+6) in 17-14 upset win at Carolina
The Bucs were in it the whole game, but I still consider this a 50/50 result as the Panthers held a 14-6 lead in the third quarter and then were in position to go up by a touchdown again when Derek Anderson threw into double coverage and was intercepted in the end zone by Tampa's Brent Grimes with 8:49 left. The Carolina defense responded after last week's debacle in Atlanta and played well enough to win, but the offense needed Cam Newton (Anderson also lost a fumble).
